For your last point, the extent of UB driven changes to semantics is still not widely known in the programmer community. Programmers don't read the standard - they read K&R, and K&R is right now describing a different language. We've had 15 years of programmers repeatedly filing bug reports to be told that the expected, tested, relied on, behavior was ephemeral. Only very sophisticated projects figure out about UB.

Of course compilers have to make assumptions. The debate is (a) over what assumptions it is proper to make and (b) what are the permissible behaviors. The false dichotomy: either do without any optimizations at all or accept whatever UB gives you, is not a useful approach.