I'm not aware of any studies comparing the predictive hit rate of astrologers and mainstream economists.
A shame. That could be an interesting study.
A shame. That could be an interesting study.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7pYHN9iC9I
"Amazing mind reader reveals his 'gift'"
Obviously I have no idea what she said to you, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are at least 10 other people out there who could have heard word for word the same thing and thought it was about them specifically.
Your post tells me you have a dry sense of humour that makes connections quickly, which sometimes leaves you making jokes that go right over the heads of others. That means when the urge takes you, you can be the life of the party - despite the fact you can be shy, especially around new people.
I can also tell you're naturally a bit disorganised - the kind of person who has unsorted photos on their phone, and that you hang onto notes to yourself that are significantly out of date. But you pride yourself as an independent thinker, and don't accept others' statements without satisfactory proof.
Because you basically did describe me perfectly. Well, me and millions of other people too. Guess I’m not that special after all.
They read them, and most of them get pretty emotional describing how specific it is to them and how much it's affecting them.
But the trick is, he gives the exact same reading to every person.
We don't see what the reading is, but I've always thought- what if everybody in the room really does share enough human experiences that a reading (somewhat generic enough) really does cover almost everybody in the room.
Years later in Boston I saw a sign advertising psychic readings. So I went in and sat for a reading. But with one difference. This time I resolved to make no expression or affirmative commentary whatsoever. I kept a neutral gaze, and at most I would say “I see” if she was waiting for a reply.
The reader was flustered, and nothing seemed accurate. Of course for a true experiment I’d have to go back and visit the priestess, but I suspect she was simply good at reading me.
Note that it isn’t necessarily a useless practice. I believe the priestess picked up on one aspect of my personality I hadn’t noticed. It had stuck out as a wrong description, but years later a major personal experience let me see it was actually quite accurate.
Again nothing earth shattering, I just think she noticed something about me no one had outright said. So, someone skilled in human nature, good at reading people and well motivated could actually provide a valuable service for some people
It is funny how everyone who I question suddenly starting ghosting me right after.
Even in a universe where I did 100% know the colour of your carpet via some form of clairvoyance (which is hardly an economically useful service), I've now understood that you will continue to react with confrontational scepticism.
By asking this question, you have disqualified yourself as a client - not only of services which have no supernatural powers, but also of hypothetical "true" fortune tellers. Expect to be ghosted.
Since I would expect the outcome to be the same in both cases, this doesn't prove or disprove anything to me.
The first provides a haiku which they claim encapsulates the point in time and space where an eclipse or other significant astronomical event will occur, insofar as your heart is open to it.
The second replies that they are perfectly capable of doing it, but they believe your request constitutes "confrontational skepticism" and ghosts you.
The other provides a latitude, longitude, and UTC timestamp.
The idea that skepticism is somehow "confrontational" and warrants "ghosting" is a lie propagated for the purpose of blurring the line between real and fake predictive ability. This third type of person does exist; they're not even uncommon. When you encounter types one or two, it's not your fault. They're just the "noise floor" ever present in the search for a good prediction, or a product that does what it says it does. Work around them. Find the third type.
Your example of skepticism isn't confrontational, in the way that I intended it to mean (as a modifier), because you're reasonably skeptical about what is being directly claimed.
i.e. when someone claims to be able to predict a future solar eclipse, you don't get them to prove their predictive powers by asking them to predict the colour of your new carpet. That would be confrontational. You'd be ghosted, also by the scientist.
In this hypothetical, you are clairvoyant. This is an exceptional talent; if demonstrably repeatable, it's one-of-a-kind. Somebody asks that you prove yourself as a seer by telling them the color of their carpet. You actually know the color, but you choose not to say because you perceive the challenge as confrontational.
To me, that is not the behavior of an extraordinary individual. It's the behavior of a fraud.
You should choose not to engage (in this hypothetical) because you have better things to do with your talent than spend time engaging with people acting unduly negatively towards you.
It's not fraud, it's normal behaviour - in this universe. It's advice I would give to anyone.
I don’t know what “better things to do” you’re imagining a clairvoyant would occupy themselves with before having proven themselves beyond the shadow of a doubt to their clients.
How many times more valuable is the advice of a seer who I know for a fact has “the sight” than that of one who I doubt? Say, if I’m the POTUS or something.
To analogise this with the original comment in this thread:
"Last time someone told me they were an actor I simply asked them to audition, for a different part, in front of me" - would be more clearly unacceptable.
If you knew the color of the couch, it costs you nothing to blow my mind. You’re crazy if you think the right and normal thing to do in that scenario is to refuse. If you don’t want to be asked to demonstrate an extraordinary power, then don’t claim it in the first place! If I conversationally mention that I can do six figure arithmetic in my head, I fully expect to be asked “what’s 357453/737901”.
I think we’ve lost track of the fact that the first thing that happens in this conversation is somebody chooses to mention that they possess an extraordinary power. One that can be demonstrated conversationally, even.