Imagine you're lost somewhere in the entire universe, trying to find your way home. Friendly (but tricksy) aliens offer you a deal. First, you pick some coordinates.
(Possibility 1) If the coordinates you pick aren't on earth, they'll take you to earth.
(Possibility 2) If the coordinates you pick happen to be on earth, they'll take you god knows where.
You also have the option to be taken to the coordinates you picked.
As a lost spaceman, perhaps going by the name Arthur Dent, what's your most likely path home? Odds are, if you pick a random point in the universe, it's not on earth. The odds are literally astronomical. So you're almost certainly going to find yourself in possibility 1.
Or just imagine monty hall with infinite doors. I'm thinking of a number between 1 and infinity (secretly, it's 19083412039102388171230123). You pick a number, and then I'll narrow down your choice to two options. Do you think you just happened to pick my number, or do you switch?