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Comment by JI00912 | Hacker News Reader

> See for example the prison system: do want people to suffer or do we want them to return as reasonably normal members of the society?

Unfortunately, this idea has not worked out. If you look at people who have been convicted a few times, reoffending rates approach 100% for Sweden.

Then there's all the suffering for the victims who get no help what so ever from the police who pretty much just let everyone go.

For instance, breaking a restraining order might at most get that person a fine. Although in reality the risk of actually getting that fine is small because prosecutors don't generally bother prosecuting someone to just get them a fine. Basically, if someone wants to kill you, the police won't help you.

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For what its worth, the US has one of the highest incarceration rates in the world, and still has massive recidivism: "An estimated 68% of released prisoners were arrested within 3 years, 79% within 6 years, and 83% within 9 years."

https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/measuring-recidivism

Where are you getting the data that recidivism rates are close to 100%?

Mostly Brottsforebyggande Rådet. You have to dig into their statistics though because they tend to like publishing what looks good.

Edit: Also personal experience, unfortunately.

Edit 2:

> Where are you getting the data that recidivism rates are close to 100%?

Recidivism rates for people with a few convictions.

Begging the question. People with "a few convictions" are certainly going to have a high rate of recidivism, by definition.

Not at all. We might for example see recidivism drop off after a few convictions. That would be the case if prison could reeducate people.

I'd expect recidivism to be low after a single conviction if the system works. But you can't teach an unwilling student, so frequent fliers will keep coming back.

Exactly, it’s important to remember the overall recidivism rate is much lower than the US’s. Unfortunately I think some amount of crime is inevitable and is ultimately reflective of societal development or lack thereof. When you get to multiple convictions, the cost of letting someone go has to be balanced against the cost of incarcerating them permanently, and the relative harm they would cause over the rest of their life if they simply could not be socialized properly. Maybe we really should be locking them away forever. Maybe we shouldn’t. I don’t think we’re ready to have those discussions yet. Emotion and retribution still drive how we punish people, to a destructive extent. It’s clear we could still go much farther in liberalizing and reforming the penal system before these questions become the most important questions to answer.

So you’re saying people who have committed a crime more than once tend to commit crimes more than once? This doesn’t sound particularly surprising.

I'm saying that once someone has a couple of convictions, the change that they will commit crime again is about 100%, which sadly goes against the nice idea that people in our prisons "return as reasonably normal members of the society".

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