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Comment by multiplegeorges | Hacker News Reader

The eradication of a seemingly unimportant species of mosquito that has an unknown but very important link to some other much more important species. If that were to happen (seems very unlikely, but not zero chance), they could see some ecosystem disruption they didn't anticipate.

The worst, worst possible case would be this gene getting somehow into the general mosquito population and making mosquitoes extinct. That would be a disaster since they are an important food source for so many other species.

Presumably, the much-smarter-than-me scientists have thought of this.

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So, Linus Upson, former VP of Chrome, left Chrome to work on this. He explained it to me thusly:

The species of mosquito targeted here is actually a pest that follows humans around. It tends to only infest areas where humans have settled and mostly preys on humans. Where we go, it goes.

The genetic modification here is designed to shut down their breeding patterns. It targets that specific species and is far, far better for the local ecosystems than pesticides or other measures.

Basically, it's trying to kill off a pest species we bring with us.

Right. It is a species native to Africa (as are we), which is basically an invasive species elsewhere in the world.

If anything, it should make the environment better for the native species of mosquitos (of which there are many), due to decreased competition from the invasive species.

It seems the FUD regarding this is very similar to anti-vax FUD. Yes, if you are not careful vaccines can cause massive problems.

In addition, theoretical downsides that have been considered and deemed unlikely by the scientific community (like making it seem that disease carrying mosquitos are an irreplaceable food source) are trotted out again and again.

In addition, just like with vaccines, the risk of doing nothing (kids die from measles, etc in the case of vaccines, and kids die from malaria and Zika, etc in the case of mosquito control).

Except this isn't like vaccines. Vaccines are tried and true over decades. They also can't proliferate on their own and become self sustaining.

Based on what I've read this sounds safe but that is not a fair analogy and given our pretty crappy track record of screwing up local ecosystems by trying to introduce balancing species, I'd say this warrants caution and wouldn't fault people their discomfort.

To nitpick, "They also can't proliferate on their own and become self sustaining." - for live vaccines (not the type used for covid) that can be a reasonable concern

> Vaccines are tried and true over decades.

Can only become tried and true if you actually try it ;).

Gentically modified organisms are also a technology that has been tried and true for decades.

Even with vaccines there have been issues. See for example the Russian vaccine with the live virus. Or people who have caught polio from the Sabine vaccine. Or the kids with bowel intusseception from the Rotavirus vaccines. Or the scare about blood clots with Astra-Zeneca and J&J.

You will never be able to achieve 100% safety with zero risk.

However, you have to consider the trade offs and the baseline risks.

I think when you consider this for both vaccines and genetically modified mosquitoes, the benefits far outweighs the risks.

Edit:

Also, Moderna and Pfizer are the first vaccines to use mRNA technology. Because they haven’t been tried and true for decades, which seems to be your standard of safety, would you advise people not to take them?

Great example of what happens when you disrupt one part of a food chain:

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/coral-overfishing.html

> That would be a disaster since they are an important food source for so many other species.

Or it wouldn't be a disaster since there's no species that exclusively feed on mosquitos.

One thing to keep in mind is that this particular species of mosquito is not native to the Florida Keys. As such, the odds that they are critical to their ecosystem seems much smaller than if it were a native species.

Another important point is that it only accounts for 4% of all mosquitoes in the area, so even if it was entirely eradicated, 96% of mosquitoes would still be fine.

Singapore is already doing it

1. https://www.todayonline.com/voices/number-project-wolbachia-...

2. https://www.nst.com.my/world/region/2020/05/590838/singapore...

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