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Comment by invertedreversi | Hacker News Reader

Farmer protests are widely believed to be the biggest reason for the spread.

What are the sources of this claim ? A general consensus was the false narrative that claimed India have conquered Covid, resulting in people ignoring the safety measured cause this. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01059-y

If you are looking for super spreader events its more likely the large election gatherings caused a spike.

Blaming a protest that was taking place even months before looks like propaganda.

Were people simply not gathering at all other than for election events?

The initial lock down and panic eventually made people deny existence of Covid, along with a narrative that Indians are immune to Covid. Later the leadership started claiming India already conquered Covid. https://www.livemint.com/science/health/we-are-in-the-endgam...

To answer your question, people were gathering for events other than rallies

Where does in the link he claims covid is conquered. He specifically says we are in endgame and to succeed politics should be kept out of the Covid-19 vaccination drive. There were too many guys questioning vaccination. Why twist the sentence?

> Where does in the link he claims covid is conquered. He specifically says we are in endgame and to succeed politics should be kept out of the Covid-19 vaccination drive. There were too many guys questioning vaccination. Why twist the sentence?

"Today, Covid cases are declining rapidly in India ... 18 percent of the world's population is in India, a country that saved mankind from a big disaster by saving its citizens from the pandemic."

That sentence is not there in the link. And it even does not say covid has ended. Let me paste a text from the article to say bad badly the op changed the meaning

He sad " We need to follow 3 steps: Keep politics out of the COVID-19 vaccination drive, Trust the science behind COVID-19 Vaccines, and ensure our near & dear ones get vaccinated on time."

Not the case. The farmer protests have been going on for months and it won't be much of a protest if they all went back home and spread the virus.

Yet another attempt by the BJP IT Cell to divert the attention onto anybody but the BJP government.

They had a rotation policy. They clearly say it in all their interviews, how they are maintaining constant presence in the protests by rotating members every 4 - 7 days. See interviews on channels like Youtube channels like ScoopWhoop Unscripted, that tried to bring the farmer's point of view to the forefront. Let's not kid ourselves, the virus doesn't discriminate based on whether the gathering is righteous or not. Each and every gathering is a super spreader, be it a protest, election rally or a religious gathering.

However the cases explosion is not related to this event.

Bringing this point up sacrifices a chance to save india from future pain just to win political talking points to protect the culpable.

Cases lag events by 14 days. The spike was this year, the protests started last year. The cases didn’t even begin in those states that sent the most protesters. The current strain developed in Maharashtra.

The Govt and all Indians I spoke to throughout the year were complete unaware of how they had dodged a bullet.

Instead of being grateful and figuring out how to prevent it from ever happening again, our govt went ahead and said “we are invincible.”.

This is a behavior we cannot ever afford again.

If we didn’t know why we had such a mild first wave, we should have done everything to understand why and to take preventive measures.

Did Maharashtra had a Khumb Mela? Or an election rally? There is a reason they are being called super spreader, not super incubator. I think all of these replies are somehow missing my point. I am not saying that this one incident is responsible for our current state, it is the government. However, I don't think somehow excluding a mass gathering like the farmer's protest from the list of superspreader's is doing any good, it will just convince some people that the gathering for their cause is somehow invincible, as you right said the attitude has been for a majority of Indians.

By that criteria the migration last year when the abrupt lockdown was called would count as a super spreader event.

However the crucial need is for an event to actually spread the virus. Or more precisely, spread the variant that is currently adapted to india.

It did though? The migration worker did result in a momentary spike in their states when they finally reached their homes, especially after those special trains. Just the variant wasn't as deadly. I am not sure what your point is.

The farmers protests are almost completely represented by people from 2 States. Even if they did go home and spread the infection the rate of spread is much lower in Punjab and Haryana.

I want them to handle the crisis well and be safe but the narrative that 'Farmer protests destroy India with Covid' needs to be debunked.

In trying to debunk one BJP propaganda, you are spreading another. The protest was not only by the "rich" farmers of Punjab and Haryana protecting their interests, there were protests joining from all neighboring states like Rajasthan, UP, etc., with demonstrating being organized country wide. The rate of spread is not lower in Punjab or Haryana. It's the same as rest of the country, just not as high as the states where election rallies and religious gathering acted as a bigger catalyst.

>It's the same as rest of the country, just not as high as the states where election rallies and religious gathering acted as a bigger catalyst.

Literally what I said.

I am not sure how "the infection the rate of spread is much lower in Punjab and Haryana" is the literally the same as "It's the same as rest of the country, just not as high as the states where election rallies and religious gathering acted as a bigger catalyst". To me that reads like saying the rate of infection is much lower than the country average.

I agree with you that larger mass gatherings have a clear responsibility. However, cherry-picking the farmers protest which was dissenting a government policy when there were multiple other events and a clearly clue-less government feels like government propaganda.

My point is not that farmer protests should be blamed. The blame and responsibility of this surge clearly lies with the government and ruling party celebrating `victory` pre-maturely. My point is that we should not propagate a wrong message that somehow the protests were immune from being a super spreader, making people think it is alright to continue being part of a mass gathering, whatever the cause.

If all this was obvious and the govt couldnt do anything about it, why is such a govt required?

Valid question that needs to be asked. Hopefully, this will wake up people from their populist fever dream.

Is there any source for this? I think the scientific consensus last year (at least in the US) was that big protests didn't turn out to be super spreader events

There isn’t. The protests were at their peak last year. If you look at the case growth, it begins in feb/March. Since case reporting tends to lags infection by 14 days, we know that they have nothing to do with the protests.

Sadly though, the protests continue even today, and I have not heard of any response from the govt.

Protests were in Jan/Feb. Cases rose April. Larger gatherings happened in March and April for elections and religion.

Please take your one sided narrative elsewhere.

Farmer protests were last year. Cases started spiking late/feb and march.

Protests would have shown 14 day lagged incrEase in cases in Punjab and Harayana, where the bulk of attendees came from. Those cases were not seen.

This idea is incongruous with information we have.

On the other hand The central govt has been declaring mission accomplished since last year.

I wouldn’t blame people for thinking that their respected leader was telling them the truth and acting accordingly.

Risk taking behavior is related to how the people on top act, especially in India which is today, a far more centralized nation.

Who believes that?

Farmer protests happened during December-feb, while COVID surge started in March.

Govt. is just blaming farmers for everything, instead of kumbh mela, lowering restrictions and election rallies

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