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> Is it going to suddenly pop? Unlikely,

I disagree.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indica...

Unless you mean will it pop tomorrow, then yes that is unlikely. But the chances it pops “soon” seem quite likely. And it will be very ugly. I don’t know if we have ever seen a spring coiled this tight from money printing.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

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but what is a 'pop'? maybe ordinary swings in both directions due to various minor panics and manias and profit-takings that average out to a decade of nominal gains but depressed real returns?

'Pop' can also take the form of increasing inflation, making people take bigger risks for returns, leading to a bigger pop that is not coming soon. People saying this market can't sustain need to think about the inverse: what needs to happen for this market cycle to last 5-10+ years?

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

2003 and 2009 style drawbacks but much worse. The SP500 has had 12 years of straight bull market, it's like an earthquake fault line that hasn't slipped in a long long time.

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