> I'd place the bet: never going to happend.

Tend to agree.

Wind and (especially) solar were heavily subsidized by government over the last few years, but that allowed for economies of scale to kick in and the price to drop. There would need to be a few governments willing to 'subsidize' building nukes to kick-start the industry.

It would also be helpful if there weren't a bajillion different designs: if (say) ≤3 nuclear designs could be fixed upon (to not have a complete monoculture), then that would help things as well.

Right now it's basically bespoke construction every time.