Comment by mysterypie | Hacker News Reader

Comment by mysterypie | Hacker News Reader

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Studies like this makes me realize that it's impossible to predict trends in society by using logic alone. At the start of Covid pandemic I heard arguments that birth rates would go up (couples at home with plenty of time for sex) or that they would go down (not a good time to have a baby with hospitals overflowing and an uncertain future). Which was right? And what about murders: Would it go down because people have to stay home and bars were closed so less chance for drunken fights? Would it go up because people are frustrated and desperate with no jobs and no money?

We now know the answers to the above (both births and murders went down during the past year), but as far as I know we can't prove the precise reason it happened the way it did.

It reminds me of the big debates we had right here on Hacker News about why Americans were slim in the 1950s -- just look at photos of crowds from the 1950s -- but are overweight today. We know what happened but we can't prove the precise reason.

>Studies like this makes me realize that it's impossible to predict trends in society by using logic alone. At the start of Covid pandemic

That is because people who claim to be using the logic to the most tend to correlate with people why have astonishingly little knowledge about the topic at hand. They create over simplified model and ignore wast amount of studies and evidence that says their model is not conforming with real life.

> I heard arguments that birth rates would go up (couples at home with plenty of time for sex) or that they would go down (not a good time to have a baby with hospitals overflowing and an uncertain future). Which was right?

Sociologists were right, births went down, as pretty much always when there is large uncertainty and threat.People in the past did not made more babies when facing economic or health issues. People dont have babies when there is war. People dont have babies when they fear future.

Plus, the other claim does not even makes logical sense. Anti-contraception exists, people can have sex without making babies, lack of time for sex is not why people don't have kids. Plus, videogames and netflix exists, it is not like there would be nothing to do.

The point here is that the logical argument was not logical and ignored pretty much all what sociologists know about human behavior.

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