Wisconsin has negotiated a dramatically scaled-back deal with Foxconn
arstechnica.com
arstechnica.com
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/foxconns-history-of-broken...
https://boingboing.net/2017/08/09/potemkin-factories.html
https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2017/08/20/op-ed-the-many-broken-...
I'm glad this one has been renegotiated (especially seeing that the proposed plant never happened), but I'd like to see these deals be more level-headed before they get to this point.
Now because of the giant snowball made from all the little policy mistakes that sounded insignificant at first, or ever worse, sounded sound! I mean who wouldn't want high paying jobs that barely require any training? the only option in many places is to keep the charade, but at some point politics need to give way to real production, and that only means real competition.
It’s still a net gain to have a major employer in your locale, along with all the other economic benefits and tax revenue that entails.
I agree with the premise here, but in reality, you can see that won't actually work.
You have existing businesses in an area paying a certain amount in taxes. You want to attract a new major business. If you lower your taxes for all the businesses in hopes of attracting the new business, you just lost a huge chunk of revenue for something that might not come to fruition. Whereas if you don't lower your taxes, that new business has no incentive to go with your locale, and will instead, settle somewhere there is an already established talent-base/infrastructure/etc. Furthering the economic inequality between the regions.
I am not a fan of these tax incentives, but I can't blame these places for using them.
The government is essentially running around to all of the Davids, collecting a few dollars from each to fund the construction of a tower that puts the Goliath beyond the reach of David's sling. I don't want a government that builds mountains for the largest companies while relegating small businesses to the trenches. I want a government that does everything possible to keep the battlefield level. Innovation rarely comes from the established giants.
I know that the history of stadium deals, for example, this claim is nearly universally made to support incentivizing sports teams - and the evidence nearly universally shows it to be false.
"In every case, the conclusions are the same. A new sports facility has an extremely small (perhaps even negative) effect on overall economic activity and employment. No recent facility appears to have earned anything approaching a reasonable return on investment. No recent facility has been self-financing in terms of its impact on net tax revenues. Regardless of whether the unit of analysis is a local neighborhood, a city, or an entire metropolitan area, the economic benefits of sports facilities are de minimus." [0]
[0] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/sports-jobs-taxes-are-new...
For example Walmart's HQ was built in a TINY SW Arkansas town. The billions that have been invested there by the company, not only in jobs, but amenities in the city have no comparison to any other option that was available to them. If the city and state wanted to hand Walmart a $100 million dollar check, then that investment would have paid off way more than 10x. (IDK what subsidies they were given, probably none just using this for sake of the argument)
I know WM is the evil empire and I'm not defending all they do, just saying that if the right business moves into your small community it can be worth tens, hundreds or even many billions of dollars to a community that has no other options.
Amazon moving into NYC, or Atlanta giving many millions in subsidies to the Braves for a new stadium? Not really comparable.
Minor correction: Walmart's HQ is in NW Arkansas (Bentonville)
Walmart owns Bentonville. The city council, mayor, and basically anyone there is almost completely subservient to their interests. Again - WM never moved in to the small community, the small community literally is Wal-mart.
For many years, people in the town worked in Wal-mart retail buildings & warehouses around Bentonville. Around 2013 the company started to struggle to compete and found that they needed to attract talent, so the Walton Family Foundation started spending somewhere around $300 million - $400 million a year in improvements and restoration projects. This included massive subsidies for companies that moved in to the area - WFF also paid partially or fully relocation money, but I have no idea how much they paid other than one restaurant owner I spoke to who was basically given moving costs, a building, and "free" rent for a year.
The whole "Wal-mart HQ" thing is just another in their line of tactics to attract new talent in to the area because they are struggling to build an ecosystem of talented developers and analysts. Which, again, there's nothing wrong with this tactic if that's what you're hunting for.
One thing I'll give WM for sure - they are 100% focused on building out a tech bubble for people who want a semi-urban lifestyle. There's a lot of TX & CA transplants and honestly it's working great for them.
All told, none of this is even kind of comparable to Amazon moving to NYC or Atlanta. Nor is it comparable to a company moving in to a small town brand-new.
[ed: oops missed an important sentence!]
It's now 54,909, but maybe it's 70k as you say.
Either way it sounds precisely like a situation where a giant corporation moved in to a small town. Or more accurately the tiny store grew into a giant corporation and so did the small town.
My point was merely that many small rural town mayors would love it if a giant corporation would move an HQ with tens of thousands of high paying jobs into their tiny communities! This is why the are willing to give giant incentives to them.
You make great points otherwise, thanks for sharing your perspective!
The only comparison I am making is that virtually identical claims are made about stadium deals and the evidence suggest the opposite of those claims is true.
I would just like these claims to be evaluated and assessed using evidence not accept it is true because they fit within the narrative that is presented every single time a company wants a tax break
I understand what you're saying here, but Walmart is a really bad example here. They started in Bentonville in the 50's as a tiny shop and the city grew with their growth - their decision to stay in "a little town in Arkansas" was organic.
People this it’s a choice between: A) company moves here pays $0 in tax or B) company moves here and pays $5M in tax.
When in reality it’s a choice between: A) company comes here and pays $0 in tax or B) company doesn’t come here and net taxes are still $0
These deals are always more complicated than the initial marquee numbers and that usually seems to make them less favorable for the area than hoped because companies have greater experience and can play desperate municipalities off against each other with little consequence for not delivering.
A) company comes here and pays $0 in tax. and city "took on hundreds of millions in debt that was supposed to be repaid by property taxes".
B) company doesn’t come here and net taxes are still $0. city doesnt take on more debt.
B looks better.
[1] https://www.theverge.com/21507966/foxconn-empty-factories-wi...
(1) Attract a business that wouldn't otherwise come, which when it exists will attract more people that pay state/local sales taxes and increase demand for property, which in turn increases property price, which increases property taxes.
(2) Don't attract the business. . . .. nothing comes after that.
By now there must be entire libraries, or at least large warehouses, filled with case studies from HBS and similar schools that show state and municipal tax incentives are ALWAYS a bad deal for the city and state finances. The only purpose they serve is to make a politician appear effective and to enable that politician and his or her cronies to collect a bit of graft.
How do cities pay for that good infrastructure? either with tax revenue or debt (bond). Very often cities want to attract businesses precisely because their commercial base is in decline, with very little room to hike tax. As for debt, such a city may have low credit score making it hard to get loans, or being saddled with high interest rate.
Giving incentive to businesses allows them to stabilize long term revenue, at the same time adding local jobs. That's the theory. The reality of course include both good and bad examples of such scheme. Foxconn is a bad example.
I don't think that's possible considering the incentives at play. Politicians always have the next election in mind, and what better way to try to win it then sign a deal that promises jobs? Doesn't matter if the numbers bandied about are too good to be true --- just get pen to paper and point the finger at your opponent and decry him as anti-business.
he was rewarded with a sinecure.
It's literally a race to the bottom, and for some reason people are eager to win!
There's also the general wisdom that life is better when you're competing to offer more value for more money, not just cutting costs as far as you can
Desperate places give away the store to get anything at all, and it depresses what companies are willing to offer the next place while also tilting the playing field toward big companies with the ability to negotiate these kind of deals.
In other terms, grey's law applies here: Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice
The payoff could be very hard to find, but the malfeasance in public office is clear as day.
Just like a sales driven tech company. Heroes for booking sales. Score fat commission. Loser developers and clients are left holding the bag.
I still like to believe that most of the people around there are good and mean well, but it gets harder and harder every day to believe the willful ignorance they possess of economic, societal, and cultural issues at hand, here and now, will fade. But there's hope. Younger leaders are working their way into local government (hi Greta!), especially over in the formal City of Racine. There's hope that Racine and Racine County might be a leader of progressive values in the area.
As an aside, I think there's oodles of opportunity in the SE WI area for younger folks. It really is a beautiful place, is near to Chicago and Milwaukee, and is inexpensive. You get all four seasons, for better or worse. I think it's better than SF's summer and grey-chillier-summer. Some joke that the four seasons are winter, construction, construction, and construction, but that's an exaggeration. Anyway, I think an influx of more diverse people in background and ideology could really stimulate an area like SE WI. Add to that making it worth young people staying around instead of fleeing to the coasts, and suddenly Racine can be a really cool place.
This whole Foxconn thing just makes me so sad, and angry.
Americans classically derive much of their sense of value from:
1. Work
2. Race (for many white people, especially historically)
...and that's about it. Unlike other cultures our "rugged individualism" means that we don't tend to derive as much sense of worth from family, traditions, organizations we belong to, etc. This is especially true for men who are raised to believe that who they are is what they do.
The economic shift to a service- and knowledge-based economy with many manufacturing and ag jobs being automated or outsourced away has devastated 1. in many communities. The march towards better civil rights and equality is chipping away at 2.
This has left a huge number of Americans feeling that they are worth less than they used to be. People like that are ripe for being exploited. People will buy anything if you tell them you're selling dignity. Trump's "Make America Great Again" slogan was really "Make You Feel Like You're Great Again".
I agree with the overall premise, but there is a single notable exception to to this, which is the military, which is the intersection of family, traditions, and government organizations. But even there, as we have seen recently, there is a white nationalism problem afoot.
>Americans classically derive much of their sense of value from:
> 1. Work
> 2. Race (for many white people, especially historically)
> ...
> People will buy anything if you tell them you're selling dignity.
All true, and it's important that politicians who hope to actually heal these folks focus their efforts on restoring the dignity that comes from work and community, and dispel the dangerous sort of "dignity" peddled by ethnic/racial nationalists.
This is a bit of cognitive dissonance I find fascinating among the far right. I have had conversations with many people who clearly simultaneously believe:
1. The government can't do anything right.
2. We have the world's best military.
And yet for most it hasn't seemed to click that the military is a government program.
But, again, I think this gets to my larger point that because the military is such a source of prestige for many Americans (especially poorer ones with few other upward mobility options), they are able to maintain that bit of cognitive dissonance.
(And, to be clear, I absolutely do not think conservatives have a monopoly on cognitive dissonance. I see many different ones all along the political spectrum.)
As a tribal primate species are absolutely hard-wired to seek ways to provide value to our tribe. Being worthless to the tribe means being left in the forest, which was a death sentence to our evolutionary ancestors. So our need for social prestige is as fundamental as food and shelter. Perhaps even more so since for most of our ancestors, food and shelter came from the tribe.
The ways we seek out that esteem are determined by our surrounding culture. If esteem is the game we're trying to win, culture determines the board and the moves we're allowed to make. We can push against culture somewhat and it evolves over time, but we're largely stuck with the one we're enmeshed in.
So you get a set of people who need to feel valued. You raise them in a culture that says the main way to do that is by having a well-paying job. Then you take away the jobs. This is a recipe for unrest and strife.
My sysadmin had a hobby of creating frankenstein cars. He put the powertrain of a Camaro into the body of Gremlin, for which he needed a second Gremlin to lengthen the chassis by a foot. It was so overpowered he needed a couple hundred pounds of sandbags in the back to give it any traction at all. This sort of thing wasn't that weird either.
(RIP Reply All, you'll be missed)
- The deal negotiated by former governor Scott Walker was expected to cost taxpayers between $172k and $290k in government funding per job created. [0]
- $80 million for 1,454 employees, the provisions of the updated deal per TFA, is $55k each.
- The US average cost of similar programs is $24k. [0]
It's not obvious whether this is a good deal, but unlike the original it's not obviously a bad deal.
[0] https://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1244...
The alternate take is that the whole deal was made in bad faith and FoxConn was hoping to collect subsidies and line its pockets. This version of events has some precedent[1]. It's especially hard to believe that FoxConn didn't know about US labor when this same situation played out in Pennsylvania in 2013[2].
[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/foxconns-history-of-broken...
[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/how-foxconns...
So that leaves either bad faith, or they are just abjectly incompetent. I can't really see any other options. Or, again, am I way off base?
Especially one that is a specialist in harvesting laborers from all corners of the world. I can only imagine selecting the right labor force has to be their main competences.
My smartphone will never be assembled in the US or Germany.
If you look from the outside, as a society we are using a lot of our best brains for very frivolous things. I wish for a more efficient way of using our minds!
(No relation to the company, though I did once have a very nice chat with Todd Weaver).
And to the larger point: I agree completely that politicians opening their mouths about jobs (and also about anything else, IMO) is bad faith bullshit.
https://www.theverge.com/21507966/foxconn-empty-factories-wi...
My take it was probably mainly a political stunt, lcd was never really possible (slump + wages + supply issues) and then they didn't know what to do.
Meanwhile, people at large don't follow progress of these endeavors. Some journalists may but there's selection bias from the journalist and the news consumer as to what they ultimately see and stay informed of. These stunts are forgotten by most (myself included) in the daily scramble of things we have to keep track of and manage. Did it fail? Did it succeed? Do I even remember it or just the emotion it attributed to something else I actually do remember?
Ambiguity hiding in complexity of daily life lets people say and do a lot of things and get away with it. It's often far too difficult and time consuming to unravel the ambiguity and complexity to show if something succeded, failed, or to even have cognitive capacity to keep track of. The end result, as you point out, is political capital people walk away with. The emotional impression at the time is what was sold and stuck to most people. "MAGA", "bringing back manufacturering", links to nostalgic economic golden eras for many workers.
Think about it from Foxconn's perspective, if you got a sweetheart deal and the person who gave it to you got canned for it, are you going to follow thru and put in billions of your dollars on the assumption that you'll still get billions of government subsidies in return?
There was quite a controversy over the environmental impact of this plant. The "word on the street" is that LCD manufacturing is a dirty industry requiring a lot of water.
edit I should add that I believe that spreading that kind of message has geopolitical implications, and that groups might want to create that image for strategic reasons.
Essentially, Foxconn thought that the Wisconsin deal would work more typically as its deals in China went. Glad-hand the government officials, get sweetheart deals on land and investment, and as long as you're not totally incompetent in making use of it, they won't care what you do with it, even if you fail to live up to the original promises. It's not clear to me that Foxconn actually seriously considered producing LCD screens here given this light; the announcement would have been more to make Walker and other government officials ecstatic about the deal than an actual commitment to follow through. The fact that outrage towards the deal would lead to Walker losing reelection and his successor keeping a much closer eye on performance (or lack thereof) seems to me to have caught Foxconn completely off-guard.
I think there's another level going here in relation to internal Foxconn politics, but my recollection is too hazy to make a coherent explanation, and I don't want to make any false accusations here, so I won't go into any more detail.
https://www.theverge.com/21507966/foxconn-empty-factories-wi...
For example, the Foxconn plant is on a particular tract of land only partially within the Lake Michigan watershed. Anyone living within the watershed must return their water, and it must be cleaned up first. My understanding of the Great Lakes Compact is that Foxconn's land is one of legal ambiguity, that they may draw from Lake Michigan but not return it. I sure hope it doesn't mean they can bottle up Lake Michigan water and ship it elsewhere, but water is set to be more valuable than oil, so I bet they're playing it strategically.
https://www.wiscontext.org/what-foxconn-means-great-lakes-co...
There's a deeper political aspect to Foxconn's presence that I can't trust. I'm from Wisconsin, and the whole Foxconn deal leaves me feeling extremely uneasy. Leaving aside the Wisconsin and USA politicians associated with the deal, Terry Guo briefly ran for president of the Republic of China. Guo and Foxconn made significant donations to UW-Madison. It smells wrong, and all the Wisconsinites I've talked to agree.
I'm glad their subsidies were slashed.
[1] https://www.gsgp.org/media/1330/great_lakes-st_lawrence_rive...
I have reservations about Foxconn too, but I’m not sure I understand why this bit is relevant. The Republic of China = Taiwan, a US ally. (Mainland China is the People’s Republic of China). This is akin to Bloomberg running for president.
Also it’s Terry Gou and not Guo.
Taiwan is a vibrant liberal democracy that feels very western. China is a fascist ethnostate.
China is threatening Taiwan's ability to self determine with military force, economic sanctions, and any other means of coercion at their disposal. China has demonstrated it's bad faith via denial of 1 country 2 systems, as well as a pineapple (miliworms) and pineapple cake (ractopamine) ban done clearly in bad faith (not for the reason stated).
The equivalence you have made is absolutely false. The relationship between Taiwan and China, the relationship between foxconn and china, and the releationship between Terry, the KMT, China, and the US, are all quite complicated.
Above it was claimed that Foxconn/Terry are Taiwanese and therefore American Allies, but Foxconn's business is primarily conducted in China and the KMT are definitely the party that China is aiming to corrupt Taiwan's leadership through. It's complicated.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terry_Gou#Political_career
To say Foxconn is complicated would be an understatement.
Desalination costs less than 0.1 cents per liter, so that sets a pretty firm price cap on the cost of water.
e.g. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00119...
"current [published in 2008] large-scale desalination plants are capable of producing water in the range of $0.50–$2.00/m3"
0.1 cents per liter is cost prohibitive for use cases where water is typically measured by the acre-foot.
I always get confused, I find it much easier to say "by 97%".
This is especially evident in the mental gymnastics required to understand retail sales pricing. How good is a "Buy two, get one 50% off!!" deal? Brains easily give up on the hard questions and substitute easy answers. "What's it actually worth? Bought one at another store last month, do difficult pricing history memory, or easy answer, the original price is listed right there. How good is the deal? Complicated math, or easy answer, it's at least a good enough deal to merit a big sign, bright colors, and two exclamation points. And it's good for a limited time only? Better not miss out, buy now!"
Here, the scope of the reduction is kind of irrelevant. They basically scrapped the old deal and tried to write a new, smaller one. Had they scrapped the megafactory plans and decided to open a fast food franchise it could have been reduced a million fold!
The new agreement offers $80M and asks Foxconn to spend only $672M on a factory that will employ only 1,454 people by 2025. The original deal offered Foxconn $2.85B (or $2850M) to spend $10B ($10000M) and hire 13,000 by 2032. Big numbers are hard, but running the math it's now $55k/job and $0.13/dollar of capital investment, it was $220k/job and $0.285/dollar. $80M is 2.8% or a 30-fold reduction from $2.85B, but the full story is they've simultaneously reduced the ratios of the incentives and the scope of the required investment.
A complete understanding of what those numbers mean is really hard to develop, and isn't really distilled by a substitution in the headline of 30-fold to 30x. Human brains in general are busy and don't like to work too hard, and whether we use "30 fold" like "four score" in our daily vernacular or they say 97% and 80, the headline's effect is the same. It conveys to readers who don't want to run all the numbers about average salaries and payroll taxes and capital depreciation and so on that the previous administration tried to offer an excessively generous deal but the current government has rolled that back to something a lot smaller, don't worry about exactly how much but just trust that it's a lot.
Increase by 100% is 2x
Fold decreases are parabolic, fold increases are linear.
Calling it a 5-fold, 10-fold or 20-fold decrease makes the difference between them much more immediately obvious, IMO.
Its similar with the miles/gallon vs. liters/100km metrics for fuel consumption, where one of them just seems immediately more intuitive to grasp and use (to me).
Maybe it is similar to miles/gallon vs liters/100km and depends on where you grew up. I feel like the usage frequency changed, but it could just be that I'm noticing it more.
It's just like how saying something is "95% effective" sounds very convincing until you realize that's a 1-in-20 failure rate.
So one of them had 50% more fat than the other, but they both look pretty close to "Fat Free"
on Jan 22, 2017 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13457176
on Jan 16, 2018 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16163558
on April 14, 2018 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16839542
on Oct 29, 2018 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18328772
on April 12, 2020 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22850723