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Comment by vmurthy | Hacker News Reader

Um , Taleb was a supporter of BTC a couple of years ago [0] and has owned BTC and is now selling it [1]. I think what he did falls in the category of "When facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

[0] https://news.bitcoin.com/black-swan-author-pulls-a-180-nassi...

[1]https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1360276917992230919

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Taleb dumped bitcoin because he couldn't stand seeing its community almost unanimously oppose the COVID lockdowns, while he was taking his precautionary principle to the extreme. You could see the divergence playing out on Twitter for months before Taleb actually came out against bitcoin. The only fact that changed about bitcoin during that time period was new all time highs and institutional adoption.

>"seeing its community almost unanimously oppose the COVID lockdowns"

Say what?!? Is there some coverage of this, or do I need to read millions to tweets?

Yes, you need to read millions of tweets. Have a nice weekend.

Good thing there's a lockdown! I'll get started.

Yes, let me be more specific: if you really are able to predict the future then you bet the house on something, you'll make out like a bandit.

But if you also do something that many others do when the trend is plainly visible that doesn't count. Yes, I mined some bitcoin. But that's not the same as being able to predict a trend. Because when you can you're not just going to mine a couple of bitcoins or put a bit of money into it, you're going to bet the house: you know you can't lose.

So as far as I'm concerned he's full of it.

You're talking about btc like it's a speculative asset and not a currency. This is the exact criticism of it. But you say the criticism is wrong.

Money is both a speculative asset and a currency. It is possible for something to be both at the same time. That is probably why most big banks have a currency trading desk.

People trade currency but they also buy things with it. Too much speculation on a currency is considered a bad thing by the people who use that currency as a medium of exchange.

Again, you're talking about btc like it's an opportunity to make a buck and not a medium of exchange, which is the exact criticism of it here.

> if you really are able to predict the future then you bet the house on something, you'll make out like a bandit.

Unless you can predict 'time', then no. (And generally we don't include time as 'predicting the future')

Will we all be eating meat not grown from animals in the near future, yes. Should I start shorting cattle farms? I'd guess cattle farms will start to devalue within a decade, but I'm not sure that statement has any value to me.

> So as far as I'm concerned he's full of it.

Yes he is.

The time is exactly the point. I am perfectly capable of predicting the next housing crash, the next war and the next extinction level impact. There you have it. But the when part is the problem. So future predictions with low degrees of confidence around the exact time are useless.

But that's exactly why this tweet feels hypocritical: facts haven't changed. He is suddenly criticizing Bitcoin on facts (e.g. its volatility) he probably knew about when he initially invested.

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