* Crimea invasion — unexpected "brother nation" invasion, brainwashing about Ukrainian fascists, largely pro-Russian population.
* Donbass — brainwashing, traitors in government and police, RF mercenaries and brainwashed Russians [1].
Since then largely people understood that "Russian peace" is war, poverty and crime. Pro-Russian parties popularity plummeted, last incarnation got 10% [2]. I do not think it is possible to reproduce Donbass scenario. And invasion would not be praised.
Last remaining option is forceful occupation. War goal is North Crimean Canal [3] in Kherson Oblast [4].
Overall mood — we have to be ready. No one can predict Russia — it's information autocracy. Putin does anything to improve his rating. Crimea annexation improved his approval rating up to 87%. And it is falling again — poverty, Putins palace, Navalny in jail, COVID deaths, too much to hide without external enemy.
I hope it is flexing muscles. Preparation is too obvious, compare with Crimea occupation. Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities. It could happen again. In such case I would be in a city center.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7NSj8aRWao
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_Platform_%E2%80%94_...