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Comment by jolux | Hacker News Reader

Priced in, only if you're completely insane. Have you priced in the risk that the SEC shuts down the offramps before it gets there?

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Obviously both of those possibilities are priced in. Investors aren't stupid, Gamestop notwithstanding.

> Investors aren't stupid

I think it's pretty clear by now that they are.

We just hope that the stupidity on the buy and sell sides more or less balances out, and what's left to determine the price is people with some real insight.

Investors in the aggregate are not stupid, and if you disagree, you can make yourself a fortune and prove yourself right.

I think severe regulation is more likely than Coinbase becoming the next NYSE, but the valuation suggests investors think the opposite.

All that the valuation suggests is that Coinbase is a company with 1 bn in revenue last year, and 1.8 bn just last quarter. By virtue of upsides being unbounded while downsides are bounded by the money you invest, the downside case really doesn't matter with a good enough upside case. Coinbase going down in flames may be the most likely outcome. That doesn't matter as long as you're not YOLOing your entire portfolio into Coinbase. What matters is the average outcome. And the average outcome is pretty good despite Coinbase failing in 9 out of 10 scenarios.

the bet is whether US regulators have the panache to regulate a financial market anymore.

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