Hacker News Reader

Comment by vbezhenar | Hacker News Reader

Ukraine threatens to invade DPR and LPR. Russia gathers forces to scare Ukraine and to prevent that invasion. For me it's pretty simple. War is unlikely, because Ukraine won't risk it. Russia does not want to invade Ukraine either, because it's just don't make sense, at least right now, when they want to finish Nord Stream 2.

View on HN

"invade" seems to be a wrong word. "liberate" sounds better. Kicking out Russian forces, reaching the border, putting neutral peacekeeper forces and then starting gradual reintegration would be the best scenario for Ukraine.

Their "invaders", our "liberators"

> Ukraine threatens to invade DPR and LPR

That's what Russian propaganda says, but it has no basis in reality.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56678665

It's not Russian propaganda, it's Russian officials.

Is there any difference?

Propaganda presumes lies. Official position is just that: official position. Kremlin believes that Ukraine is preparing to war. There are reports about Ukraine forces gathering up, so those beliefs probably are justified.

Is there any presumption that Russia politicians are not lying? They are the spokesperson of propaganda.

There's not, just like there's not any presumption that BBC reports about Russian forces are not lying. So one should weight all the information and choose which one to believe. I expressed my point of view which might be wrong. There's absolutely no reason right now for Russia to invade Ukraine. They had plenty of time before. They have to finish Nord Stream 2, so they absolutely don't want to impose any additional sanctions on themselves. While US have all the incentive to break bonds between Russia and Germany and to prevent Nord Stream 2, so they commanded Zelensky to start a war, hoping that Russia will join it and Europe will be forced to impose additional sanctions.

Russia could have attacked before. Russia could attack later, when Nord Stream 2 is finished and Germany is on hook and won't go anywhere. But right now it's just the wrong time.

Do you think Zelensky is so stupid to star the war with Russia just because he is told to(no reason to believe this, probably russian propaganda again). He would end up like arab countries when they tried to destroy Israel... stub of state left. The reason is probably not war but russia alwyas has some reasons to send troops. Invade something here. Cause fog of war there. And do some other stuff. Maybe they are trying to hide that thair vaccine is total scam. Or they are blackmailing ukraine. Putin is in trouble so he is flexin like a school bully. If he invades Ukraine he is done for the west. Also when russia says that Ukraine started. It should be taken with the same seriousness as when Hitler claimed that Poland started.

As I already said, I don't think that Zelensky will start the war. He's just doing his thing and Russia's doing theirs thing and that's all. He could do that if NATO would support him with army, but they did not support him for obvious reasons and that's about it.

> US ... commanded Zelensky to start a war

Do you think the US has such influence over _any_ country to command it to go to war with another country?

> They have to finish Nord Stream 2, so they absolutely don't want to impose any additional sanctions on themselves.

One would think so, yes; but on the other hand, hasn't Russia annoyed the Western world enough over the last 6-7 years, with Syria, Skripal, or Navalny, despite its obvious need to finish Nord Stream?

> Do you think the US has such influence over _any_ country to command it to go to war with another country?

They definitely have enough influence to suggest doing so. I remember Victorya Nuland openly supporting Ukraine revolution by physically being there, so obviously they supported them financially. And when US pays someone dollars, they expect something in return. Ukraine officials promised to their people that Ukraine will join NATO, so that's another leverage.

> One would think so, yes; but on the other hand, hasn't Russia annoyed the Western world enough over the last 6-7 years, with Syria, Skripal, or Navalny, despite its obvious need to finish Nord Stream?

I don't fully trust Skripal and Navalny stories, so that's more of western propaganda trying to paint Russia's black from my PoV. Not sure about Syria, probably there were enough geopolitical reasons for that.

> I remember Victorya Nuland openly supporting Ukraine revolution by physically being there, so obviously they supported them financially

Oh yes. There's no doubt the US is supporting Ukraine, at least militarily. They make no secret of it. But it's one thing to ask for, say, access to trade or to natural resources in return, and it's quite another to demand that receiving party commit to something that can potentially turn into a suicide.

There's a difference?

It doesn’t matter what Ukraine is attempting to do, and it wouldn’t be an invasion it’s their territory.

They don't control it, so it's as theirs as Crimea.

It's not their territory though, not for some years now. That is the reality of it.

It is their territory. Occupied by Russia. Ilegally. Period.

It is managed by Russia so it is Russia, now. The same way Ireland one day was administered from London and now is not (excl. Northern Ireland). The rest is emotional talk.

The difference is that the while world on the fact that Ireland is self governed. Almost no one agrees that Criema is Russian.

I don't think that is true. I think most people would agree the people in Crimea understand they speak Russian, have a Russian passport, can travel inside Russia, pay taxes to the Russian government, their children are schooled in Russian topics. Culturally the majority probably feel quite Russian, or as Russian as any other "republic" of the Russian "federation".

There are countries with less cultural and linguistic similarity, for instance Catalonia comes to mind, yet there is also the general agreement that Catalonia is part of Spain and not fully self governed, much less governed by any other country.

Well it is more of... Hungary takes tanks and goes to Romania because there is large hungarian population and aquires some of their land with 50% romanians and if they leave they take their property. They started giving hungarian passports left and right in the past... with some kind of hope of leverage on other countries. Not as mas or menos independent community that wants(at least some part) to leave as is happening in spain.

The situation in these areas is substantially more complicated than that. They're part of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory, yes, but they seceded in response to a 2014 overthrow (very arguably a coup) of the democratically elected president they supported. So there are good reasons that a Ukranian military takeover would be seen as aggression.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com