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The Netherlands exports 10 times as much food as the UK with 1/10 of the arable land.

In the event of a crisis I am sure the UK would be able to ramp up their production and become more efficient.

The amount of food that a country exports is orthogonal to its capacity for self-sufficiency. Your example of the Netherlands is a perfect illustration of this. In monetary terms it's a net exporter, but in caloric terms it's a net importer. The latter is a better metric for potential self-sufficiency, and by that measure, the Netherlands is actually the eighth least self-sufficient country in the world[1].

Yes, the UK could undoubtedly reconfigure its agricultural sector to become more self-sufficient. But even on a wartime footing, doing so would take several years. Meanwhile, the slack in food reserves is several weeks. It's that differential between weeks and years where there's the potential for malnutrition and starvation.

1: http://www.fao.org/3/i2493e/i2493e03.pdf

I wonder how much of that caloric deficit is due to economic reasons (low calorie vegetables are a lot more profitable) and how much of that is due to biological reasons (you need a lot of sunshine and land to grow calorie rich crops).

Interesting! As a Dutch person I've never heard of this before. I'm not quite sure what numbers I'm looking at though, is it just because the Netherlands mostly exports cucumbers and watery tomatoes?

Yep, you export a lot of nice flowers and vegetables, and import a lot of meat.

This makes fine economic sense in the context of well-functioning system of global trade. But if that system were to shut down and you had to produce all that meat locally... it wouldn't work so well. And the flowers wouldn't make a good replacement.

Is there more info on how your fao source performed the calculations? The Netherlands is actually a very significant meat exporter (78% of poultry and beef, 95% of calves, and 43% of pork is exported [0]). As a matter of fact, meat is the most valuable export product after flowers.

A lot of the exported animals are first imported, are then held and slaughtered in the Netherlands, and then the meat is exported again for financial gain. So in terms of meat, I'd think they are a caloric exporter but still highly dependent on other countries.

Hence my question: how were the fao numbers calculated?

[0] (Dutch) https://www.trouw.nl/economie/hoe-nederland-uitgroeide-tot-e...

I would imagine that caloric figures would tend to gravitate towards staples, such as wheat, rice and corn, which are high in both calories and in volume consumed.

The Netherlands food industry absolutely depends on imported oil though, so that might not be a good example of self-sufficiency.

well, they're exporting tulips and other flowers, they could grow instead sunflower or colza/canola

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