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Comment by chrisBob | Hacker News Reader

He is saying you are more likely to become a Billionaire by starting a company than by joining a FAANG as an employee. Now that is a 1:1000000 event instead of a 1:5000000 event like it may have been in the past. I will forgive you if you still think it is unlikely.

Most people's goal isn't (and shouldn't be) $1B. If your goal is a more reasonable $5M then joining an existing company is still your best bet. I am going to plan my own like around the MEDIAN result which makes startup stock $0, and the salary wins.

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I think this is a good lens to look through.

If you want the BIG payout and "f u" money, then forming your own company is now the highest odds way to make that result. The chance of abject failure ($0 payout) is still high but even that isn't necessarily true these days with the experience and learnings leading you to FAANG jobs (should you choose) anyways. You do fall behind your colleagues who started at those jobs earlier, but they won't reach that $1B goal that you had and now neither will you; the difference being you gave it a shot (and the highest odds shot).

PG's point might be simplified to say starting a company is the newest highest odds way to be super rich.

That's sort of my take. Super wealth comes from founding or having a large stake in a unicorn. That's of course true but also rare and sort of like a kid betting his future on playing in the NBA. Sure some people make it, but the vast majority do not.

"Enough" wealth -- i.e. retiring with millions in assets, is much more attainable by anyone who simply invests sensibly over the course of a working career. You don't even need stock options or equity compensation or a SV salary.

What about those billion-dollar companies that never made money but got acquired by FB, MS etc? Their founders did build a company, but if it wasn't for FAANG's insane profitability, which makes the cost of their moat so high, they wouldn't be worth that much. They essentially joined facebook as employees to make their billions.

Average exit event (going public or getting bought) won't out-pay working for FAANG. The chances that it does are like 10%, and that's if there is a real exit, instead of just a wind-down.

Dustin Moskovitz presented that point in the invaluable How to start a startup series - https://youtu.be/CBYhVcO4WgI

A good resource when deciding on your future ambitions

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