Whether a raft of new generic top-level domains succeeds or fails depends on whether there is a mind shift in the average user from ".com" to ".anything". IMHO, the new entrants like .biz haven't succeeded because there hasn't been that shift yet.
Now, if Google starts using .google for its products, and other key services you use every day stop using .com as their primary URLs, I think that mind shift could happen and you could get a very different result.