Are you taking into account that these blood clot deaths are happening disproportionately in younger people? Also, are you assuming that anyone who turns down the AstraZenaca vaccine is definitely going to get COVID?
OP is claiming that "AZ could kill more people in the affected age ranges than the virus has done so far." so that's what I'm questioning.
In regions where COVID is well-controlled, you might save lives by rejecting the AZ vaccine and maintaining the current lockdown/measures until non-AZ vaccines are available.
The risk of death from the AZ vaccine seems to be about 1 in 500k. If you're a country of 10 million people, you would expect roughly 20 deaths from the vaccine. If fewer than 20,000 people would get COVID, the vaccine would kill more people than COVID would. If more than 20,000 people would get COVID, the vaccine would save lives.
Basically the risk of dying from the vaccine applies to everyone, because we want everyone vaccinated. The risk of dying from COVID only applies to people who actually get COVID. You'd have to look at projections to see which is likely to be more risky, but you would have to have really good control of COVID for the vaccine to be riskier.
Yes. The incidence is as of a week or two ago significantly above what one would expect. Additionally this effect can be shown in all countries where AZ was given to people below the age of 55 and no such cases happened to people given other vaccines. You can quickly google for the numbers and days if you want.
There were more than 50 deaths by COVID-19 in Norway last month. How many people were vaccinated with AZ and didn't die? How many of them won't die in the coming months? Could they have gotten a different vaccine? What if there wasn't enough of those other vaccines?
In this statement: "AZ could kill more people in the affected age ranges than the virus has done so far"
What are "the affected age ranges"? Affected by what? COVID-19? AZ vaccinations? Thrombosis due to AZ?
This is a key flaw in your logic. The choices aren't just "get the AZ vaccine" or "100% chance of catching COVID", so you need to multiply the IFR of COVID by the chance you'll catch it to have a fair comparison.
And even if the chance is only 1/4, I would estimate that the numbers would still be higher for covid than for AZ for people in their 30s and above.
That seems unlikely. For one thing, after more than a year, there have been 130 million cases out of a population of 8 billion, which is less than 2%. Do you expect this to dramatically spike in only a few months at this point? Also, remember that there are other vaccines available, so it's not the case that AZ or catching COVID are the only two ways to herd immunity.
I'm making the assumption that we want to reopen our economies again at some point, at which point the infection risk will obviously rise much higher than that (unless we have reached herd immunity). The only way to prevent that is to get people vaccinated. And right now for many countries in Europe AZ is the only vaccine available, since the supply of the mRNA vaccines is for too low.
For people 35-39 it appears to be 0.01%-0.1%.
Newer testing is showing a near complete stop of transmissions with vaccines. CDC is actively changing guidelines as these studies come out.
If I were you I would see the vaccine as a "booster shot" for whatever natural immunity you may still have, with the expectation that it will improve and prolong your immunity.