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Google Chrome Frame could also be helpful here. Macromedia somehow managed to get most people to install their terrible plugin.

Long before Chrome Frame even existed.

Possibly, but how many companies will actively target a platform that, say, roughly half of their visitors can actually use? It won't be a safe bet like Flash is with 97% of users having it available.

Installing an entirely new browser is a huge barrier to entry for the average end user.

webgl requires a graphics card that is known to work, this alone is a bigger problem than asking people to install something. Last time i tried, installing Firefox was easier than installing Flash.

Unfortunately, a large number of those people will still see "your browser does not support webgl" after changing browsers, thanks to old/broken/blacklisted gpus and no browser shipping a software renderer for webgl.