We have basic gates in circuits and a few fairly solid theories of how to scale, including quantum AI algorithms to accelerate training. Distributed quantum systems running those basic gates have been demonstrated. Basic arithmetic has been demonstrated.

A reasonable prediction is humans will implement quantum computing in 10-20 years, for special purpose data center operations.

A “super intelligent” AI might reasonably do that in 2-5, at which point the quantum ML gains would allow it to enter exponential growth. We could see an AGI go from “mildly smarter than human researchers” to “incomprehensible” in just a few years.

I’m unsure which step in that chain of reasoning you think is inaccurate.

You just said “to be honest”, implied I was uninformed because I disagree with you, then said something concurring with me: Zuse’s work happened a decade before ENIAC (1936 vs 1946). If quantum is at the equivalent of Zuse’s work, AI could suddenly accelerate it and go exponential.