> and an attack still has a non-zero chance of triggering WW3.
Very improbable. Nobody cares enough about Taiwan to even officially recognize its existence.
Very improbable. Nobody cares enough about Taiwan to even officially recognize its existence.
Taiwan was the United States' 13th largest goods export market in 2019.
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china/taiwan
If you think the US doesn’t care about a Top 10 trade partner, and in particular the trade partner that houses TSMC, well have I got news for you. Do we care enough to go into a full-on firefight immediately? I don’t know. But we care enough that it would be a massive diplomatic row, and we’d almost certainly have a naval peacocking as a show of force. And nobody wants that right by South Korea, India, and Japan.
Why do you think the US is working with TSMC to build plants in the US and intel is building more facilities as well? It's fairly obvious nobody has any confidence in the long run that Taiwan will remain independent.
I assure you we have not seen the last of war. Ignoring or minimizing the possibility is self-destructive. You must acknowledge the possibility of disaster before you can engage in the active work of averting it.
Never even said that. Just saying the Taiwan situation is not going to start a massive conflict.
Additionally, world wars are never triggered intentionally. World War I broke out essentially because the decision makers ignored the wider consequences of +1'ing their opponent's military preparations (one author characterizes it as Europe sleepwalking into war). World War II broke out unexpectedly because Hitler underestimated the spine the Allies had when he requested they add Danzig to his list of silver platters. World War III will likely break out when someone crosses a red line to one party that isn't clearly communicated to another party--and a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan is one of the likelier options on that list.
The only reason Taiwan "insists" on that is because of the threat of invasion if they declare independence. Just because a bully tells you to stop hitting yourself while they smack your hand into your face does not mean the bully is not doing the hitting.
Before this, the bully was the Taiwan government. Then they lost the mainland, and fled to Taiwan, where they got sheltered by the Americans.
And now, you’re saying that the government on the mainland is now the bully over little Taiwan.
But the fact remains, that the last stage of the Chinese Civil War is not over.
History is useless since none of the previous world wars had nuclear powers at play. You can't compare before and after. Like, not at all.