But one thing is certain - it's a question of when, not if. Taking control of Taiwan is too important to the founding myth of the CCP. Every reminder that Taiwan exists is a challenge to their power. Their desire for Taiwan has never wavered in the last 72 years, nor do I think it will ever. Meanwhile Taiwan's main defender (America) has no permanent allies, only permanent interests. Once the semiconductor supply chain is replicated successfully in the US, they might find that they're no longer willing to sacrifice American lives to protect the sovereignty of Taiwan. At some point in the next 10-40 years, Taiwan will be a bargaining chip America will trade away for something else they value more.
Not saying that you're wrong, because you seem much more informed and involved on/in this subject than I am, but from half the world away I can say that around 10 years or so ago that "certainty" wasn't that "certain", so to speak, at least not from what I could gather by reading the "local" press (mostly the Financial Times and The Economist).
Do you happen to have any resources available that further comment on that certainty? Again, not because I'm thinking that you're wrong, but because I'm really curious about this subject (there was a similar Taiwan-related post on the front-page of this website a few days ago but it dropped off pretty quickly).
> To many Chinese, the island’s conquest is a sacred national mission
Taiwan is definitively on the next because it is way too close in distance to China for its own good.
No, I was looking for sources that would talk about the "certainty" of invasion by China (in a large enough interval, from let's say tomorrow to 10-20 years into the future), like I said, about 10 years ago that was not the official discourse.
"Predicting the future" would be to ask for a specific date/time interval for that supposed invasion, which I did not ask for because that would have been a reasonably difficult task to predict, I concur.
The US has a permanent interest in the continued existence of an independent, non CCP aligned Taiwan. The only thing that time and time again frustrated the ambitions of Great Powers has been geography. Taiwan is the cork in the bottle containing the PLAN within the first island chain, without which China can operate freely throughout the Pacific. Just about every projection has China become the world's largest economy. America's only play to maintain dominance is to make sure that the tyranny of geography restrains the Chinese from operating militarily as freely as they would want. Much American blood had been shed in winning the Pacific in the first place. America is willing to shed more blood to keep it that way.
imposing control on Hong Kong happened because it did not require high-stakes combat with a nuclear peer competitor
I'd bet on it happening during Xi's reign, as it's critical to his pursuit of legacy. He's obsessed with writing his own name into China's history, taking Taiwan (and simultaneously defeating the West as he does it) would be a very big stamp on that. It would formally signal China's new empire-like dominion over Asia.
I don't think the US will trade Taiwan as a bargaining chip. By the time the US is willing to trade it, China will fully understand it's not really worth bargaining over any longer. The time to bargain would be now, or in the recent past. If the US Government wanted to get something big for trading Taiwan, during the Trump Administration was the last time to do it (during max tensions), and the trade should have been North Korea being dismantled (as is; meaning the Kim family goes, the nukes go; only China could make that happen) and reunited with South Korea. The US Govt no doubt thinks their bargaining position is stronger than it actually is, and so doesn't think they needed to make such a trade, instead the US will get nothing and Taiwan will end up in China's hands regardless and North Korea will remain a key China pawn.
I think China is happy to play the long game, since every passing year strengthens their position and weakens Taiwan's. But who knows what will happen with the next CCP succession.
Every passing year brings China one step closer to demographic collapse, the inevitable consequence of the One Child policy, and China is well aware of this.
Japan is several decades ahead of China on the same path, its population has been declining since 2011, and they have not imploded yet.
CCP requires economic growth for popular support, this is one reason for the Belt and Road Initiative and other dumping policies, gotta keep those factories running at all costs. If growth stagnates or declines and unemployment spikes, things will get bloody.
Also China's demographic dividend will end while it's at a much lower stage of development than Japan in the 80s/90s. And unlike Japan, China's managed to piss off pretty much every major power who might have been inclined to help them.
Very improbable. Nobody cares enough about Taiwan to even officially recognize its existence.
Taiwan was the United States' 13th largest goods export market in 2019.
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china/taiwan
If you think the US doesn’t care about a Top 10 trade partner, and in particular the trade partner that houses TSMC, well have I got news for you. Do we care enough to go into a full-on firefight immediately? I don’t know. But we care enough that it would be a massive diplomatic row, and we’d almost certainly have a naval peacocking as a show of force. And nobody wants that right by South Korea, India, and Japan.
Why do you think the US is working with TSMC to build plants in the US and intel is building more facilities as well? It's fairly obvious nobody has any confidence in the long run that Taiwan will remain independent.
I assure you we have not seen the last of war. Ignoring or minimizing the possibility is self-destructive. You must acknowledge the possibility of disaster before you can engage in the active work of averting it.
Never even said that. Just saying the Taiwan situation is not going to start a massive conflict.
Additionally, world wars are never triggered intentionally. World War I broke out essentially because the decision makers ignored the wider consequences of +1'ing their opponent's military preparations (one author characterizes it as Europe sleepwalking into war). World War II broke out unexpectedly because Hitler underestimated the spine the Allies had when he requested they add Danzig to his list of silver platters. World War III will likely break out when someone crosses a red line to one party that isn't clearly communicated to another party--and a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan is one of the likelier options on that list.
The only reason Taiwan "insists" on that is because of the threat of invasion if they declare independence. Just because a bully tells you to stop hitting yourself while they smack your hand into your face does not mean the bully is not doing the hitting.
Before this, the bully was the Taiwan government. Then they lost the mainland, and fled to Taiwan, where they got sheltered by the Americans.
And now, you’re saying that the government on the mainland is now the bully over little Taiwan.
But the fact remains, that the last stage of the Chinese Civil War is not over.
History is useless since none of the previous world wars had nuclear powers at play. You can't compare before and after. Like, not at all.
China currently lacks sufficient amphibious assault ships to actually move enough troops to take control of the island. They certainly can bomb the crap out of it, but they won't have the resources necessary for boots on the ground for some time still.
They're building ships fast, but it's still something like a 15 year horizon before they'll have sufficient material, perhaps longer. At the least we can expect them to wait until the 2 carriers they're constructing are done.
Most credible analysts I've read believe a serious attempt at invading the island won't come until Xi's successor. Rick Joe is good to read on this topic. He writes for the major media outlets, as well as posting as PLARealtalk on reddit.