Intel to spend $20B on two new chip factories in Arizona

The US would fight to prevent China taking over Taiwan by force, and Japan and others would assist them, but if China succeeded, the US wouldn't choose to start the third world war by using weapons carelessly... it would accomplish nothing at all.

If China has hostile intent it also increases the risk of Chinese action, because - dependent on stockpiles and security - Taiwan is a resource choke point which could potentially decapitate the entire US military machine.

This is a terrible situation for the US to be in.

As the US replaces that capability on its home turf Taiwan's strategic value wanes, which paradoxically makes an attack less likely because China can get what it wants from Taiwan by conventional economic and political means.

The question is... how lucky/aggressive does China feel? And how just-in-time is the US military supply chain?

If you're TSMC or Samsung you probably had a conversation with US officials along the lines of: Build fabs in the US, or we will tariff and tax our way back to a mostly domestic, American owned industry. 60% of TSMC's sales are to the US customers. There's not much of a choice there.

Instead, this move ties the success of the American facility and the Taiwanese facility together, building a bond and interdependence.

Sort of.

TSMC's interests do not perfectly align with Taiwan's. TSMC putting fabs in the well-defended territory of its customers makes sense.

That said, China being able to credibly threaten a critical supply line is a security issue for America. It constrains U.S. response options to an invasion, threatened or acted upon. Removing that constraint does make Taiwan a bit less critical to America. But U.S.-Taiwanese relations predate TSMC. On the net, these plants free America to be more aggressive with China, which is broadly in Taiwan's interest.

Why now? In a word: automation. Semiconductor manufacturing has become far less labor intensive since TSMC was founded in 1987. That makes the American labor premium less material.

I think you're failing to take into account a number of things. First and foremost the very foundation of the US is based on respecting IP law given we're almost entirely an "information" society. If we suddenly steal TSMC's business secrets because it's convenient, what's preventing Europe and our allies from taking ours? Why would they respect IP law if we don't?

Second, regardless of the technical reliance we have on Taiwan, there's no planet on which the US wants China expanding and taking over other countries in Asia for political reasons.

The factories in the US ensure that the US keeps sending business to TSMC.

It probably comes with some benefits, but I doubt volunteering to be a potential hotspot for WW3 is really worth those benefits.

But one thing is certain - it's a question of when, not if. Taking control of Taiwan is too important to the founding myth of the CCP. Every reminder that Taiwan exists is a challenge to their power. Their desire for Taiwan has never wavered in the last 72 years, nor do I think it will ever. Meanwhile Taiwan's main defender (America) has no permanent allies, only permanent interests. Once the semiconductor supply chain is replicated successfully in the US, they might find that they're no longer willing to sacrifice American lives to protect the sovereignty of Taiwan. At some point in the next 10-40 years, Taiwan will be a bargaining chip America will trade away for something else they value more.

China currently lacks sufficient amphibious assault ships to actually move enough troops to take control of the island. They certainly can bomb the crap out of it, but they won't have the resources necessary for boots on the ground for some time still.

They're building ships fast, but it's still something like a 15 year horizon before they'll have sufficient material, perhaps longer. At the least we can expect them to wait until the 2 carriers they're constructing are done.

Most credible analysts I've read believe a serious attempt at invading the island won't come until Xi's successor. Rick Joe is good to read on this topic. He writes for the major media outlets, as well as posting as PLARealtalk on reddit.

It's certainly less risky for Taiwan for TSMC to be the one building and running the most high profile element of it than if it was someone else.

Tell these to people who keep mining at loss for god knows what reason

It's speculation, but China appears to be building up normalcy bias in Taiwanese defenses, get them used to seeing Chinese aircraft and making them more complacent.

Add the fact that China's national victim mentality is driving it to restore itself to it's perceived state before the "west" messed it up (includes regaining Taiwan), and that objective being one of the socio-political foundations of the CCP's power, and the CCP being well aware that China will start running out of young people in next decade due to one child policy (makes military adventures harder for both manpower and economic reasons), and Xi consolidating more power under himself and his cult of personality than any Chinese ruler since Mao...

Yeah if I was Taiwan I'd be subtly building some extra "tourism infrastructure" on the beaches and quietly stepping up training requirements for reserves; and give the US whatever it wants in exchange for a couple of carrier battle groups if needed.

Or... it's much more complicated and China has been slowly angling to usurp control (unjustly) for decades.

Source? Because he's not by his actions even close to a communist.

And having been in China lately, I can ensure you CCP is only communist in name.

Huge failure. They should've squeezed them in 1990-1992 as the USSR was dissolving and there was no pressing power to contend with. And North Korea they should've attacked then as well. No other way to solve this when the opponent will use your goodwill against you to play you for decades straight like the Kim dynasty.

Btw that gigantic ... Other than the Netherlands part, japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all keys here and close to a mad man and a sharp power.

Also noteworthy to mention all these are partially due to the failure of intel more than anything else. If intel keep arm and maintain the same level of chip production.

Ultimately we need at least two sources of critical components for any process rely upon them to be safe whatever the process is.

A ship gets stuck in the Suez channel.

Let's drill a new channel ...

For example, ASML is an european company.

Jump-starting a manufacturing hub might be all it takes to be self-sufficient throughout the whole process.

Universal Robots is owned by Teradyne, also in the US.

ABB I don't know. How are they market leaders?

Also, looking at ABB it seems this are those old industrial robots with few degrees of freedom. The future will be less specialized robots with more degrees of freedom. Powered by AI, not by explicitly coded motions.

And who says TSMC has peaked? Surely it’s best for everyone if Intel are kept under pressure.