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neartheplain

Agnès Callamard is a French citizen. What would be likely to happen if said threat were carried out?

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If past French actions are any guide, not much.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Rainbow_Warrior

Europe in general doesn't really punish intelligence actions of allies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lillehammer_affair

The Mossad agents in question were imprisoned, so it was something, and Saudi Arabia really isn't an ally to any European country.

> The Mossad agents in question were imprisoned,

I mean, they were all released within 18 months. And France is definitely an ally of SA, and the third largest seller of weaponry to SA after US & UK.

That was a French intelligence action on foreign soil, so it really can't tell you much about France's willingness to retaliate against foreign intelligence actions against their own citizens.

I'm suggesting the nation that carries out terror attacks on non-belligerent nations should probably sit this one out.

Excuse you?

Every industrialized country does black ops. France just happened to get caught, once, 35 years ago, and has been paying reparations ever since.

Saying it's "the nation that carries out terror attacks" from this is extremely dishonest, especially when compared to other world powers (hello US).

> Every industrialized country does black ops.

Most of them aren't targeting unarmed environmentalist boats in a peaceful harbor of an ally.

It was a remarkably stupid op, and I don't think it's at all inappropriate to describe it as a terrorist act.

That was a long time ago, under an entirely different government.

I think that Macron, being the outspoken politician he is, would probably do something, at the very very least to save face from the far right party who would be all over this.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

When has there ever been an instance where the West has punished Saudi Arabia?

The West is a very broad term, including countries as diverse and as wildly different as Belgium, the US, Denmark, Germany, France, Spain, UK, and even Australia and New Zealand.

Germany for instance had the decency to ban arms exports to Saudi Arabia.

Having them spend so much with Western companies on such an ineffective military can be seen as a form of punishment

I think that they would take exemplary action in this case.

The Saudi's don't have as much leverage as they think they do. Pretty soon they are going to have none, if the French allowed this to go unpunished (and the punishment would have to be striking and humiliating) then it would be open season.

If I were Macron I'd hit Saudi oil facilities up and down the country. What are those fancy subs and cruise missiles for?

A breakdown in EU- and, possibly, US/Saudi relations. Unlike dealings with, say, Iran, any measured would likely to be targeted more directly at MBS and individuals in positions in power, who would see themselves added to various sanction list.

These measures would likely pack some punch, as it is very common for Saudis with means to both do business as well as spend time/get medical care/send their kids to school in the west.

This would point at a possible future resolution, which would see MBS removed from power and some more reasonable person from the family taking over.

It depends on how much France depends on its economic and military ties to the kingdom. France exports a large amount of arms to Saudi and trains some of its army. I imagine this would be covered up Trump admin style to keep the money flowing.

https://saudileaks.org/en/protests/

Edit: Here are the links referring to the Trump admin actions. The Trump admin basically towed the line that MBS had nothing to do with the Khashoggi murder even though they knew that to be a lie and then rushed an arms sale to the Saudis as an emergency.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/saudi-arabia-arms...

I disagree.

The standard response is hand wringing about what one could possibly do, a reminder of the jobs that are at stake and then carrying on as normal.

That’s what Trump did and I’m not aware of any cover up around this murder from his administration. Have you got a link?

“Mike Pompeo has backed his president, saying after talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu that "it's a mean, nasty world out there".”

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46283355

>The standard response is hand wringing about what one could possibly do, a reminder of the jobs that are at stake and then carrying on as normal.

Yep. Just like the world's response to the genocide going on in China.

Sanctions != hand-wringing in my opinion but its still not enough to counter what on its face moves closer and closer to becoming Holocaust 2.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-eu-sanctions/we...

The downvotes will be due to your comment’s lack of relevance.

There is a small connection though - Trump himself noted that America refusing to trade with Saudi would just lead to more trade with China and Russia. My above comment has a BBC link which notes this.

"If we foolishly cancel these contracts, Russia and China would be the enormous beneficiaries,"

[i was wrong]

Jamal Khashoggi was not a US citizen, though he did hold a Green Card as a lawful permanent resident.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/lake-county-news-sun/...

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