How many American soldiers station in Taiwan? And more importantly: how many nukes?
Since the answer to both is "zero" TSMC actually decreases Taiwan's security - it gives China a strong incentive to attack, with zero means to prevent it on US side.
Since the answer to both is "zero" TSMC actually decreases Taiwan's security - it gives China a strong incentive to attack, with zero means to prevent it on US side.
This has been an open secret for decades, recently causing a bit of a laugh when a US serviceman was in the background of a publicity photo of president Tsai Ing-wen touring a radar installation.
US policy of not deliberately provoking China over the Taiwan issue doesn't mean the US hasn't maintained a policy of nuclear deterrence over Taiwan since the Eisenhower administration. The PRC and US are well aware, and have extensively war-gamed, that a US/China military confrontation will very likely escalate to nuclear war. The US sailing a carrier or cruiser through the strait every time the PRC makes loud noises is reaffirming the status quo.
If China attacks Taiwan (and the TSMC fabs are destroyed), everyone loses, including China. In the short term, it would probably hurt the West more, but once fabs in the West start spinning up, China would risk being embargoed from the most efficient chips, putting them far behind until they can catch up. (All the lithography machines seem to be coming from ASML in the Netherlands).
This may change in 5 years or so when China has caught up more, and is less dependent on TSMC chips. And China has patience. They'll deal with Hong Kong and Xinjiang first, ensure independence, then invade.
That can be mitigated by planting bombs at the TMSC factory. If china attacks, they'll get end up with a rubble.
Also "planting bombs at the factory" scenario is one of the reasons why all armies in the world have spies and special forces - you send your special ops soldiers before your main attack to take control of the facility and prevent initiating the self-destruction protocol. I'm not saying it always works, but China can take a calculated risk here, since they win either way.
And the sanctions from US and other countries would massively outweigh any perceived economic benefits from invading Taiwan.
But most importantly, it would paralyze everyone except them economically, as they are the only country that can't use TSMC.
China can’t really close them in labour camps and expect them to be very productive...
I’m sure it would paralyze everyone economically, since China would just end up with a bunch of ruined factories with no staff and no way to replace most of the machines needed for fabrication (which are made in other countries).
simple replicating everything TSMC is doing in China would be several magnitudes cheaper (if you factor in the economic outfall of a military invasion)
It would cause a lot of economic damage to PRC too.
If they attack Taiwan, definitely the US and its allies will retaliate. They'd likely place trade sanctions on PRC which would damage much of it export businesses. They might even consider a naval blockade of PRC.
Taking Taiwan is a giant pain in the ass for China which is why it is unlikely to happen in any foreseeable future (e.g. 30-50 years). Honestly, it seems like China despite its words sometimes is perfectly content with the current status quo so long as Taiwan doesn't try to foment political unrest on the mainland.
Suppose PRC tried to blockade Taiwan, US might respond by trying to blockade PRC. In that scenario, what does PRC do? Nuke US? Try to work around the US blockade? Come to negotiating table?
I don't think "Nuke US" would be at the top of list of strategies for PRC. Nuke US, US nukes you back, game over. Not a winning strategy.
Americans not taking it seriously is reflecting on the overall direction, and quality of their military decision making.
And it would've been true even with cold war peak weapon stockpiles.
To anybody claiming the opposite, am asking them just why wouldn't it be any different how in Mao's most famous saying.
Even with an extreme prospect of loosing half of population, you will still have a very angry country that too went completely overboard on preparing for NBC war, and which will still have world's biggest heavy industry even after massive losses.
Even to this day, NBC shelters are built in every Chinese city. Xi, and top military officials spends most of their day in bunkers. The industry is holding bi-monthly, or tri-monthly mobilisation, and war production drills. Most state employees get military training, and basic military training is still a part of high school, and college in China. Humongous food, and materials caches across the country prepared explicitly with war in mind.
And of course, the famed Kim style VIP nuke shelters in the mountains to hide a big portion of the party elite are very real too, as are the draconian plans which CPC has for its population in case of war, with being shot on sight for opposing conscription probably being the least cruel.
Seeing well educated, if not elite, people in the West dismissing that so easily makes me nervous at least.
It probably won’t let them march troops on the island for a long time - if ever - but I bet they’re getting plenty of intelligence and trade secrets from it.