Come on folks... Elon has been claiming for years and years that you'll be able to read a book, or take a nap while in FSD mode, and FSD is "just a year away...". He also claimed all the hardware existed in current-model vehicles and would just be "unlocked" later. The lies pile up, yet people clamor over each other to defend Tesla and Musk.
Musk is a deceiver, he is not accidentally optimistic with his "forecasts".
I will believe fsd or autopilot works properly when musk and his kids do a coast to coast trip in winter from NYC, via Chicago driving through every city at rush hour. Blindfolded with no driver intervention. Then it would deserve a fsd label. There should be no room for double speak on this matter.
People say that humans are bad drivers as well. True, if distracted, tired, DUI, inexperienced. Still, no human with sound eyes and a drivers licence would drive like in that video. Unless on the run from police maybe.
None of us are perfect, we’ve all driven drunk. How many times you got caught? It’s the fact people don’t get caught or crashed before that they risk it.
So really these vehicles are driving worse than humans at their worst. That’s probably why we are underestimating the problem.
No we haven't. Some people are responsible drivers and don't drive after drinking alcohol. Others don't drink at all. I've driven while tired, but never drunk.
Apart from that, I agree with you.
So there’s something going on in the brain that we’re not getting.
The distraction issue could be minimized as well, albeit with rather invasive methods.
All the above plus taxi apps becoming abundant and the common sense to assess when to use a taxi and the fsd software will take a long time to be better than humans.
So far, summon does not even work and i remember driving in a Mercedes with lane assist and automatic braking if the distance to vehicle ahead is too small in 2010 or something. Did Tesla even exist at that time or where they at the stage where they used Lotus cars and replaced the drive train and the stickers? The features are not much better than what I have seen in a 2010 Mercer.
Its not FSD because its beta of the software that will enable that. That's the point, your training the network.
The hardware does not seem to be the constraint here. CommaAI does a great job on a processor much, much slower. If their prediction is wrong, they put their own money on the line to upgrade the hardware if need be.
I don't think they were lies, Elon usually just says what he believes, often he is right but optimistic, sometimes he is wrong. Clearly he was most wrong about AI but he is right often enough and always speaks his mind.
This is what basically everybody that interacts with Elon says, the guy is candid and says what he believes at that moment. This has been reported by people that worked with him and by people like journalist who have interviewed him (recently just in Liftoff book).
Tesla has to put most of the money made from the FSD sale into a holding account, as they have not delivered the feature.
Generally more generally, I don't think its smart marketing or communication that they are doing.
Here's an article from 2016[1] where Musk makes exactly that claim.
From the video embedded in the article, I'd wager we're a long ways away from any Tesla having anything remotely similar to FSD... yet Musk still claims Next Year™[2]
I'm at a loss why Tesla even decided to wade into the FSD waters. What was wrong with making a really good EV that people wanted to buy? FSD seems to have become a major distraction for Tesla... now plagued with build quality issues and FSD issues.
[1] https://evannex.com/blogs/news/elon-musk-self-driving-hardwa...
[2] https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elon-musk-full-self-drivi...
The full part is where it also include: following line, navigate, parking, line change, stop and go, recognize traffic sign, etc
Musk is "the first to say" a lot of things.
If I were participating in a beta test and my phone kept crashing, I could complain about that, but not much, right? beta software does that.
Of course a car crashing is a much bigger deal, so, like: pay attention.
I'm pessimistic about it ever getting out of beta, personally. But it is what it says on the label. I've seen other, equally cherry-picked videos, where the FSD system has done a competent job of getting from A to B with zero driver intervention.
> I've seen other, equally cherry-picked videos
Cherry picked? Did you watch the video? It's a complete drive through Oakland - not cherry picked snippets.
I've seen video which is also unedited, and which shows Tesla FSD behaving just fine. It was promoted onto my Twitter feed by people who want to believe FSD is going well.
Whereas this one was promoted to the top of HN by people who want to sell clicks promoting the idea that FSD is going poorly.
Either one is cherry picking. What wouldn't be cherry picking is watching as much video of FSD driving as you can, collecting statistics on it, trying to make sure your samples are representative (good luck if you aren't Tesla), and writing up a report on what you find.
This is, of course, a ton of work.
The guy that made the video and posted it to youtube is a Tesla "fanboy". I doubt his goal was to paint Tesla's FSD software in a bad light.
Yet, in one video, the Tesla nearly hits pedestrians, nearly side swipes other vehicles, drives in the wrong lane, comes to a complete stop in the middle of a busy road, and tried to drive straight through a iron fence. That doesn't look very good to me...
No, sue Musk & Tesla for fraud. & false advertisement. Unless they are willing to put their responsibility on the line, it will remain a piece of garbage.