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Trolley problem with a needle and some dice

Covid has a certain chance of killing any particular person (not the same chance for each person), the vaccine has a much lower chance than average COVID and prevents the COVID chance.

This vaccine has a much lower chance of killing you than COVID on average. From which you cannot draw the conclusion that vaccine has a much lower chance of killing any particular person - e.g. a healthy 20-something. That part is not at all clear.

I'm bothered by two things.

The first is multivariate studies are notorious for throwing false positives especially when positive cases are in the sigle digits.

Comparing data sets collected under different surveillance regimes is difficult.

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