I think one of the reasons is that while I am reasonably good at architecture and programming in general I do not really get hung up on processes / languages / tools / technologies etc. What makes me tick is when I see the product working and serving people. That's the only thing I really interested in.
I don't think you were downvoted because you were immodest (although I'm sure it didn't help) but because your comment doesn't contribute much to the discussion.
Do you have any comments on the content of the article? Do you have any estimation techniques to share? What were the deadlines based on?
>"People estimate the median completion time well, but not the mean."
I do not estimate either. I estimate guaranteed delivery date and what functionality will be delivered by such date.
My "special" estimation technique is probably that I do not always do things in prescribed way. I am not afraid to look outside and find ways that would bring solutions faster (sometimes by much) than the standard recipe.
Here is the example of the unconventional way I used to save someone's butt in 2 weeks when the other company (Certified consultant shop charging $300 per hour per developer) could not do it in 2.5 month https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21055881
I have never really thoroughly analyzed why I am successful with the estimate and delivery. I think I'd be way more interested in it if I was late. Since I am not I do not really care. I just am and this is enough for me.
I am eternally grateful to my University (nothing to do with comp science btw) and teachers though who taught me not to blindly remember the rules but how create those. I guess this helped me to become who I am.