Comment by mschuster91 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by mschuster91 | Hacker News Reader

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> Perhaps necessity will force the eastern Mediterranean to re-emerge as an economic powerhouse

As a half Croat: sorry, won't happen. Croatia's economy is tourism dominated and will stay that way. There is a bit of agriculture and industry (especially shipbuilding), but nowhere enough to compete with heavyweights such as Germany.

For those out of the loop: the Balkans have historically suffered from brain drain - first during the Yugoslavia era where many fled/emigrated from realcommunism, then during the wars for obvious reasons, and now simply because Germany and other EU nations pay way better and those who don't find work in tourism find it elsewhere in Europe instead. Good luck finding a nurse on the Balkans... Germany has to recruit from the Philippines meanwhile.

The fact that Croatian (and other Balkan countries') politics are extremely corrupt doesn't help much either, it's really sad.

Regarding Southern Italy: similar situation re/ brain drain, plus the added complexity of having to deal with the Mafiya.

Regarding Turkey: Turkey already is an economic powerhorse and a regional hard-power leader - the early Erdogan years showed what Turkey is capable of. Unfortunately Erdogan turned into Erdolf and investors are pretty much shying away from Turkey as a result of the instability, not to mention that Turkey is directly adjacent to the Syria cluster-fuck.

The geography of southern Italy, Croatia, and Greece place all three at a disadvantage compared to continental nations connected via road, rail, and canal. The Mediterranean is a comparative advantage that can be leveraged. The natural beauty that attracts tourism can help repatriate the talented diasporas.

The question is whether brain drain, crime, and corruption are due to incurable pathologies or symptoms of transient disadvantages.

I've long held the conviction that tourism is a toxic sector. If it grows too large a share of GDP, so much talent, money, and effort is sucked into tourism and away from society which otherwise would have found better use for it.

Who builds the next startup, starts a franchise chain or scouts investors to build a new machine, if you can always double your salary by serving rich foreigners?

> I've long held the conviction that tourism is a toxic sector.

It's sort of a Dutch disease [1]. I've seen it happening from afar to Barcelona, which was on route to become what Berlin now is in terms of IT/programming back in ~2005-2006 but the ever increasing rent prices caused by tourism put an end to that (plus the 2008-2010 crisis, of course, which hit Spain especially hard). I had expected the same thing to happen to Amsterdam, but it looks like it managed to hold up better.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease

Barcelona: Particulary sad. As a tourist one could sense the unworthiness of this proud city going thorugh this transformation. From something that stood on its own feet (rich, industrious history) and aimed at creating its own future (there are still some tech-giants left - although it feels like remnants of a once brighter outlook) into something dependent on wealthy foreigners, whether it is domestically unbearable rents or a battered public life because of agressive hawkers at day and aggressive thieves at night (which eye the tourists, but pollute the place for the citizens as well). I remember somewhere in the 2000s Barcelonians put out a map for visitors (domestic and foreign) of what kinds of robberies/con games to expect in what area. And then there was of course this guy: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/aug/11/commuting-fro...

> I had expected the same thing to happen to Amsterdam, but it looks like it managed to hold up better.

Well... many of the German tourists only come to Amsterdam for smoking pot on a day or weekend trip, and the French additionally for a night in the brothels since sex work is banned in France, so all you need is a lot of cheap hotels with beds, no stuff like beach resorts or other... more high-class venues to deal with these people.

Additionally, over the last years many of the "coffee shops" (weed shops) have closed down - in the early 2000s there were 280+ in Amsterdam, now there are 166. The government wants to introduce a "weed pass" that's only for Dutch citizens to further crack down on weed tourism: https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/corona-coffeeshops-101.htm...

It 100% is a toxic sector.

Hawaii's education suffers dramatically because the work is all in tourism - this is firsthand knowledge from teachers I know over there.

> The Mediterranean is a comparative advantage that can be leveraged.

How? There isn't much trade between Africa/Arabia and Europe other than oil, some agricultural products and used cars/outright waste.

> The natural beauty that attracts tourism can help repatriate the talented diasporas.

That's already the case in Croatia, many pensioners who worked in richer European countries retire back in Croatia because they can "live like kings" from pensions that would barely fetch a 1br micro apartment otherwise. For 500€ you can get a 75 m² flat in the center of Rijeka - in Munich that would be around 1500-2000€.

And those in working age... it's rare for them to return to their homelands for that reason.

> The question is whether brain drain, crime, and corruption are due to incurable pathologies or symptoms of transient disadvantages.

Neither, in my opinion. "Incurable pathologies" is bordering on racism, but it aren't "transient" issues on the other side. What's needed is massive amounts of wealth redistribution across Europe, combined with throwing the whole lot of political elites into jail (and that's also sadly valid for Germany, just look at Andreas Scheuer or the MPs who allegedly got huge kickbacks for anti-corona masks).

Basically Europe would need something like what the US did post-1945: a complete clean-up. Absent that, I'd also accept a revolution of the masses, but that isn't on the pipelines anywhere except in France...

How? Subsea power cables, optical fiber, and pipelines (?). Midsize autonomous ships providing a cost effective alternative to truck and rail transport. Promotion of English as the lingua franca. Policies that attract new talent and promote the free movement of goods and people between new coastal charter cities. Partnering with people in the same boat (or sea).

Adam Smith not only promoted specialization but also extending the "reach" of trade. Politicians have the power to ruin things but they only succeed when riding the coat-tails of talented makers. I'd focus on promoting the makers rather than punishing past ruiners. Nihilism is never the answer.

As a Greek, this is accurate, and Greece has the same brain drain problems as well. All my university-educated friends now live and work abroad.

Which is also correct for Turkey. I'm just a data-point, but Facebook showed me that nearly everyone who can get a job and a visa will leave and, IMHO, not just because of Erdoğan. He was the reason I left but I decided to stay in Germany permanently for other reasons, and those other reasons are probably more clear to others now even before leaving the country.

Related: Turkey is not an economic powerhouse at all. You can't have such a fragile economy and still be called that. You think Erdoğan keeps poking at sensitive matters because he has power to do so? Those are just distractions.

Another parallel between our countries is that we both have "centrists" in power that are actually rather on the far-right... well, that happens when all young and progressive minds leave for greener fields. :(

You have two major political parties that have vied for power since the war, and only one of those of is of the right (HDZ).

And it has little to do with "progressive" minds, and everything to do with opportunity. I personally have known Croatians of all politics who have left the country due to lack of opportunity, not because they were progressive.

Also, leaving the country because of lack of opportunity becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Yep :/ Nothing is going to improve when none of the people who want things to improve can bear to stay.

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