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I can imagine a scenario where civilization collapses and humankind exists in a permanent dark age without abundant oil to launch a new industrial revolution.

Edit: Another alternative is technology progresses but political and cultural institutions do not, so the requisite level of global cooperation never materializes.

> assuming technological advances.

Kind of makes it a tautology.

I think the point was a billion years is quite a long time and many things we know today will not be the same. Predictions were made about the amount of horse dung that will overrun new york city if the pace of traffic continues, as an example.

What makes you think that?

The pace of current technology seems like it is speeding up more and more. Feels like a solid prediction even in hundreds of years of not thousands but of course if there is no civilization-ending thing that happens.