Issue one, do criminals actually know the penalties for their crimes? Deterrence relies upon criminals knowing facts of the law, when evidence suggests crime is impulsive and done by those who lack education and opportunity. The economy is hurt and crimes are on the rise in the US; I'm surmising criminals are not vastly less aware of laws than a year ago.
Issue two, even if criminals knew the penalties, deterrence would rely upon them to weigh and measure the consequences and not commit crimes. How does deterrence work when criminals believe themselves to be lucky and not susceptible to being caught? How does deterrence work when desperation, poverty, and a culture of crime leads young men to view punishment with a shrug or disdain?
Issue three, the biggest in my view, We've seen rises in violent crime in the US in the past year -- has deterrence gone down? Have laws changed towards less severe punishment? Or, have socioeconomic conditions changed?
Issue four, Japan is a highly insular island nation with an ancient culture and quite a unique cultural attitude. They have extremely low littering and crime, their populace is extremely "tight" in its conformation to laws and regulations such as masking, quaranting, etc. So I wouldn't say they are a good example of an average nation.