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Comment by adamcstephens | Hacker News Reader

Why not cash? It doesn't matter where they flee to. Once everyone distrusts the market, a positive feedback loop begins and prices crater.

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The same applies to cash once a critical mass of people believe there's an effectively unlimited amount of it flooding the market. That's what hyperinflation is. You really don't want to be in cash if that happens.

See the performance of Venezuela's stock market over the last 5 years:

https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/stock-market

(The "crash" in late 2018 was the redenomination of the bolivar at a 1:1000 ratio, which affected everything denominated in bolivars, including the stock market.)

Ok, a savings account so that you can take advantage of the inflation?

Honestly wealth growth is the least of my worries if we have another 1929 level crash or hyperinflation.

My grandfather bought a mansion in SF (Dolores St) for $8K in 1934 (approx). You can optimize for a 1929-style crash (hold cash), and you can even plan for hyperinflation (anything but cash), so the trick is to figure out which way to go.

I think that's the appeal of Bitcoin and/or Gold: it's both cash in that it might act as a safe haven in the case of an asset crash and would retain it's value during hyperinflation (since you can't print more of it).

Though bitcoin has really been untested as a safe asset and currently behaves more like a speculative one.

I think Bitcoin has huge potential right now, even after its recent run up. It could easily 4x to 6x from here, before the next halving. It could also drop by half, but at least the rewards are asymmetric with the risks.

But even though I'm optimistic about Bitcoin, I don't see it as crash-proof except in one crash scenario. It's mostly a speculative risk-on asset that loses value in crisis scenarios. We saw that in the covid crash in March last year as Bitcoin prices tumbled along with other markets.

The one crash scenario where Bitcoin doesn't crash is if Bitcoin is the thing that triggers a crisis of confidence in fiat assets. That's the hyperbitcoinization scenario that still looks improbable, but easier to imagine now than it was a couple years ago.

Gold has been confiscated by FDR. Bitcoin clamp down is coming: we have recently learned from Yellen that it's primarily a terrorist tool, and that it also causes global warming.

"it also causes global warming."

It would be interesting to see how much the gold mining industry contributes to global warming (including not just extraction, but processing and shipping). Trading, too, but I suppose that's done mostly by contract, and not shipping gold bars around...

Yep, and I have a diversified portfolio with a big chunk in cash. Most people don’t have cash though, because the market makes them more money.

When the next crash does come, I’m ready to buy.

You and I both, only problem is that we've been waiting since before Trump took office for a crash...

If the crash of March 2020 wasn't big enough for you, I'm afraid you're going to be waiting a very long time.

But which way is it going to go? Is there a set of investments that will benefit off either outcome?

No one knows nothing. That's why you diversify across cash, gold, bonds, US stocks, international stocks, etc.

I thought banks don't actually keep up with the hyperinflation, so your saving eventually dwindle to worthless.

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