> Then we could also question whether there is or not a a higher probability for gays to also initiate a gender transition- my hunch is that there is, although of course being gay doesn't per se imply a desire to transition to the opposite sex.
While there's probably a slightly higher probability, the perils and feelings that most trans persons will describe are not something that will match with the experience of someone who is gay.
Imagine you suffered serious injury to most of your body, disfiguring you and making it hard or painful for you to recognize yourself in the mirror. That's effectively what puberty was to me. As a young child, I was aware that I was different, but I was mostly okay until my body started changing in the wrong way.
I've found that most (though certainly not all) trans persons I've talked to resonate with that description. Interestingly, among transwomen in America studies have shown that roughly 60% report experiencing attraction to women, and it's only around 20% that report exclusively feeling attracted to men.