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I suspect the fall off is non-linear. I would be curious to know how they fair in the next 100k miles.

I have never bought a car with less than 100k miles on it and I drive pretty nice cars. There are a whole lot of ice cars on the road with more than 100k miles because the last decade has produced very reliable ice vehicles with very replaceable parts.

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I suspect that tesla modified the drop by giving you a battery which has a higher capacity than advertised and then borrowing from that extra capacity as the battery degrades. This works until it doesn’t and you run out of extra to borrow from. I wish the mechanics of how the battery is managed long term was more open.

The same article I linked discusses model X that had battery replaced under warranty at more than 300k km. The reason for the replacement was not battery degradation. Here's another article showing graph for up to 200k miles. Looks like Teslas holding capacity quite well even beyond 100k:

https://insideevs.com/news/429818/tesla-model-s-x-battery-ca...

We need third party data, Tesla has incentive to fudge those numbers.

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