> I am a huge fan of a negative income tax, but I prefer a UBI for multiple reasons. It lowers the administrative burden because you don’t need to figure out how much I made last year. It removes any strange shenanigans in terms of trying to report a low income. It alleviates a payments timing issue — you’re not likely to get your negative income tax when you might need it. And politically, I think it’s more appealing to be able to say to everyone: You have intrinsic value. This is how much you get for being an American, [a] human being.
The universality of UBI is key to its political viability. Just look at the number of people who are against forgiving college debt because they have already paid off college or are past the stage in their life in which they are personally concerned about college debt. Most people still view "fairness" as everyone being treated equally. So just give everyone an equal amount of money.
Equality of opportunity? Equality of outcome? Low penalty for failing? Low penalty for breaking the law? Eye for an eye?
Further it is not just people that have paid off college debt or are past the stage where are concerned about college debt..
Many people worked their ass off to become good at a trade or other profession with out incurring college debt, why should we then have to pay increased taxes to pay of those that bought into the college lie?
No one is offering me Mortgage Debt forgiveness? Housing is more of a necessity of life than a collage degree...
Sometimes fairness means leveling the playing field so everyone can compete equally.
We are not talking about a "family" but talking about government, that is something very different and it is very dangerous to view government as a "family" in the same way it dangerous to view a corporations or your employer as "family"
To treat people differently you would have to start basing income tax rates on characteristics of a person, such as race, sexual identity, age or height (like in your previous analogy)
Saying all income from 0-50000 is tax X, and income from 50000-100000 is taxed Y is not treating PEOPLE differently, all PEOPLE are treated the same in that situation.
To be clear I am a supporter of replacing all Welfare programs with a Negative Income Tax. I would also be in favor of a UBI that was not funded with Income taxation.
I also support the abolishment of all Income based taxation replacing it with Georgism Single Tax System
Characteristics like their marriage status, the number of children they have, the status of their home, their status as a student, or even the specific example you used of age which is tied to all sorts of taxation issues?
Although I'm not sure there is any point to continuing the conversation if you are going to nitpick any analogy and refuse to recognize that your views on taxation are an extreme minority opinion.
Meanness and unfairness are two different things.
Especially in a family setting, sometimes niceness can Trump fairness.
Everything else is just corruption
You're right that the parent was a good contribution and deserved to be unkilled. That's what vouching is for, and you made an excellent use of it.
Banning on HN isn't punitive, it's preventative. When a banned account has changed its ways and has reliably been sticking to HN's rules for a while now, we're happy to unban it. If people see cases like that, they should email hn@ycombinator.com so we can look into it. That's a fine way to watch out for a fellow user.
When a banned account hasn't been reliably sticking to HN's rules for long enough, or hasn't posted enough to decide that yet, it stays banned for obvious reasons. In that case their good posts can still be unkilled, just on a comment-by-comment basis. That's why we created vouching and it works well.
Suppose you have a negative income tax in the amount of $12,000 which phases out at a rate of 25% up to $48,000 in income, and a 5% marginal tax rate on people who make less than $48,000 and a 30% marginal tax rate on people who make more.
Suppose you have a $12,000 UBI and a flat 30% tax rate.
These are really the same thing. The advantage of the UBI is that you see more clearly what you're doing, so that if somebody suggests to e.g. have a steeper phase out, what it really corresponds to is having a higher marginal tax rate on lower income people than higher income people. Which is maybe not what you want.
When I report my income as of December 31st, 2020, I still made enough for the year that I won't receive benefits, despite not having an income. That means that I will be unsupported through 2021 and won't see the money until 2022, correct?
If it were UBI and I were paid on January 1st 2020, it would be clawed back on December 31st as I still made enough money, but I would receive another payment on January 1st 2021 to get me through the year where I have no income. Isn't that the intent of UBI and not something afforded through negative income?
You could pay out a UBI-like stipend and then claw it back on the same day (December 31st, 2020), but is it really UBI at that point? That sounds like the negative income tax.
There is no "don't receive benefits" anywhere. Everybody gets $12,000/year every year in both cases. Then separately people who make more than $48,000/year pay more than a total of $12,000/year in taxes or phase outs.
Does a negative income tax not tell that high earners pay money to the state, while low earners receive money from the state? If everyone receives money from the state, even if high earners have to pay it back at tax time, that does not meet the definition of negative income tax as I know it. That is UBI. A more concrete example would be useful.
Suppose you make $20,000/month, i.e. $240,000/year if you made that the whole year.
In January through March you make $20,000/month. Under a UBI you receive $1000 but then pay $6000 in taxes, a net payment to the government of $5000/month. Under a negative income tax you pay 5% on the first $4000 ($200) and 30% on the remaining $16,000 ($4800), and expect to receive no credit because it fully phased out, so a net payment to the government of $5000/month. It's the same.
In April through December you make nothing. Then you get the $1000 UBI/credit and there is no tax. To receive the net money from the tax credit before the end of the year you would have to be able to claim it without a job, and to set your withholding amount to a negative number that month because you have no income. Which is theoretically possible (it would be what happens to anyone making <$48,000/year), and either way you still get the same total amount at the end of the year when you file your taxes and reconcile.
You're shrinking the window down from a year, but does it change anything other than you might be able to get by for a couple of weeks easier than an entire year if your income dries up? Assuming monthly payments, and a loss of income on March 1st, I'm still under the impression that UBI will give you $1,000 to spend as of March 1st, while a negative income tax will make you wait until April 1st, no?
But also, in my world there are no paychecks or ongoing regular income and income isn't reported until the end of the year. How does that fit the model?
What we do instead is withholding. Your employer is to pay you $60,000/year, i.e. $5000/month, but instead of actually giving you $5000/month, they give you $3500/month and give the rest directly to the IRS. Then you don't owe anything at the end of the year and a lot of people actually get some back because they took out more than they needed to.
The reconciliation period for this is in the law somewhere but in principle it can be whatever you want. It could be instantaneous. As soon as you get your paycheck, the employer cuts one to the IRS at the same time.
With a negative income tax, some people would have a negative withholding amount. So the IRS would cut a check to the employer and then the employer would include that money in your paycheck.
So what happens if there is no employer? Well, then you're the employer. You're a sole proprietor making $0. So you fill out the paperwork with the IRS to reconcile your withholding, which would be in a negative amount, and they send you a check (or direct deposit the money in your bank account). There is no reason in principle that they couldn't do this as soon as you fill out the paperwork, i.e. on March 1st the instant you lose your other job and become a sole proprietor with no income.
But you won't really know if March is going to be income-less until it is over. On March 1st I may still be hopeful that tomorrow will be a better day. Soon it is the 31st and I realize I didn't make anything. You're still dependent on hindsight, no? Whereas UBI fronts the money and then if March 15th provided me a major windfall, I can give it back.
We can shrink the period even further. Let's say a day. If you cannot find a source of income on March 1st, you can submit the paperwork at the end of the day. But you're still looking to the past, whereas UBI would give you the money first and then adjust accordingly in the future. In the real world there is always going to be some kind of lag to the time to filing the paper work. There isn't a constant stream of conscious delivered to the tax man. And reporting daily is a huge amount of overhead for someone. I cannot imagine in practice that it would be practical to provide such reporting more often than a weekly/bi-weekly schedule at the very most. The length of period doesn't actually matter here, though. The logic is exactly the same if you report every second or only once per year.
I'm afraid I'm still not seeing how a negative income tax can ever provide you the money before you know what your income is (the past). In contrast, UBI assumes you will have no income and then is clawed back if that assumption is false (the future). That is not just framing, there is a practical difference in the real world as far as I can see in your examples.
You can specify how much withholding you want. There are just penalties if you end up owing too much in the end, because otherwise people would specify none all the time and we'd be back to tax debtors prisons when they didn't have the money at the end of the year.
So you can say on March 1st that you want the $1000 now. Then on March 3rd when you find a new job, you immediately go back and specify a different withholding amount which claws it back so you don't have to pay the penalty for not withholding enough now that you're making more money again.
> And reporting daily is a huge amount of overhead for someone.
Not if you're only reporting changes in your withholding amount. Then there is only something to file when your job status changes. You lose your job, you file a status change, money is immediately transferred into your account. You get a new job, you file again. At any other time there is nothing you have to do.
> The logic is exactly the same if you report every second or only once per year.
Other than the immense practical difference between having to wait for money for one year and having to wait for money for one second.
And even that doesn't exist because filing doesn't have to happen after the fact at all. If it's February 15th and your employer says you're laid off in two weeks, you can change your filing status before March 1st and get the money at exactly the same time.
So, you state that in the morning - every morning – assuming you won't have an income and then when you hit it big on GME stock at lunchtime, you pay it back at 5PM? Seems like a lot of work that won't happen in practice. It is not like you can know in advance if you will have income for the day or not.
No way.
Taxation requires benefit systems for those that are not working (unemployment, disability, maternity etc). UBI simplifies benefit systems, administratively and for the needy. The social outcomes for benefits are entirely different from what a UBI would bring.
Taxation is chunky (per year) and delayed (processing delays). There are heaps of corner cases of employment and salary changes during the year that might be equivalent over periods of many many months, but where a weekly UBI payment would make a huge difference to you if you were poor or unfortunate.
Taxation has more scope for fraud so requires much more overhead for prevention. A UBI is simple to manage - the things you need to detect are far more limited and are more easily checked and less invasively checked.
Disclaimer: I am not a UBI fan: I am just arguing against your point because it is so egregiously incorrect.
Not a negative income tax, for exactly the same reason that a UBI doesn't, because they're the same thing.
> Taxation is chunky (per year) and delayed (processing delays).
Neither of these is inherently different. You could have a per-year UBI with processing delays. You could have an instantaneous tax reconciliation system with electronic transfers.
> Taxation has more scope for fraud so requires much more overhead for prevention.
You say that as if the existence of a UBI would cause there to not be taxation.
Having a negative income tax is entirely orthogonal to tax complexity. The explanation is more complicated, because it's just a harder to reason about way of describing the same system.
This is not how NIT works. You can read this for an intro:
https://www.scottsantens.com/negative-income-tax-nit-and-unc...
For UBI, you need to / get to have a direct line to every person/citizen. For NI, they come to you.
I honestly have no idea which one is better/easier from this perspective, it just seems like the logistics implementation is another significant difference.
I imagine UBI as a system where every citizen gets a monthly check, no questions asked. It shows up in the mail or gets direct deposited and that's it. And if someone can't receive it that way, say if they're homeless or don't have a bank account, maybe there could even be a place they can show up and collect their money in person. This might still be a pipe dream but it doesn't seem impossible, the hard part is actually figuring out how to pay for a UBI program.
Contrast that to sticking it into the existing income tax system. I imagine that would mean you'd only collect the money annually, and only if you file a tax return. Lots of people without much income don't file tax returns so that's already a blocker. And once the money is gone, a year is a long time to wait for another payment. Of course there's no reason a negative income tax couldn't still be distributed monthly and made more easily acceptable, but there's just a lot of baggage around the thought of dealing with taxes.
It's important to read economic literature beyond old dead economists because many modern economists disagree with this, or think it doesn't paint a full picture of the situation. Noah Smith comes to mind.
https://www.washington.edu/news/2019/02/06/two-new-studies-p...
"The most common strategic response reported by the businesses has been to raise prices or fees of child tuition and to reduce hours of or number of staff. Center directors reported that employee wages and benefits comprise the majority of business expenses and that child tuition was the primary source of business income. Thus, most businesses reported they would need a mix of strategies to accommodate increased labor costs to ensure that added expenses were not falling entirely onto the families they serve."
Edit: also, I can't find the study, but I know there was one done about statewide minimum wage changes in states with large differences in cost of living. It's a smaller scale version of what you'd see on a nationwide hike given the differences in cost of living (i.e,, NYC vs Buffalo). Generally speaking, businesses adjusted.
E2: here's a study that isn't the one I was looking for, but is topical: https://www.epi.org/publication/webfeatures_viewpoints_raisi...
No it's not, it's proposing that one of the things they'll do in response is hire fewer people. Which will absolutely happen in a non-zero fraction of cases. The only question is how big a fraction.
Sources:
1. https://www.nelp.org/wp-content/uploads/NELP-Data-Brief-Rais...
2. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2705499
3. https://americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/kf/minimumwa...
4. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/hi...
A lot of research suggests the effect is pretty small when the increase in minimum wage is small compared to the market wages for unskilled labor.
But there isn't a lot of data about a large change in minimum wage that affects a substantial number of people.
If there was no downside, why not $100 an hour?
These studies are obviously politically and progressively motivated (coming from firms such as american progress) so we have to assume a large scale national increase of minimum wage as significant as this would have unintended negative consequences.
So really, the only benefit is a psychological trick. Simply handing out money to underpaid workers would drive inflation much more effectively and do the exact same thing.
One of the arguments for UBI is that, as it makes no effort whatsoever to exclude anyone, it is enormously simpler than the alternatives, both in terms of people reasoning about their taxes and in terms of implementing it.
Of course, it would be UBI + lots of other tax codes, but that's meant to be part of the point.
How would it do that?
As a first crack at it, let's just give everyone who makes less than say $10k per year a bundle of aid that amounts to the fixed value of $1000 per month. This perhaps an improvement because we aren't ignoring the needs of the poor, but it creates a problem, which is what a welfare trap is. Imagine the graph for this situation. If you're making over $10k per year it's y = x, but if you're making less it's y = x + ($1000/month). So at x = ($1000/month) there's a sharp drop in take-home money. So people who would perhaps like to make a little more money are disincetivized from doing so because they would stop taking home that $1k per month and be exchanging it for a much smaller raise.
The negative income tax proposal attempts to solve this first by just providing cash to poor people instead of various goods that are hard to measure, and then by ensuring that the curve we're talking about never has a negative slope or drop. For instance imagine if you make zero dollars, you're given $1000/month, but then for every additional dollar you make independently, you receive 25 cents less aid. You'll always want to make more independently in this situation even if you don't keep it all.
Make $x and you get rental assistance, medical care for your kids, food aid, whatever.
Make $x+1, and you get jack and shit.
There's no reason for it to be that way, in a world with ubiquitous calculators and computers, but that's how it often is.
* If you make $20,000 then your effective income is $32,000.
* If you make $32,000 then your effective income is $32,000.
* If you make $25,000 then you're effective income is $25,000.
This creates a terrible incentive structure where you actually don't want to make more then $20,000 unless you're sure you can make more than $32,000. Well actually more because there's really no incentive to move up to $32,000 exactly.
You have to make sure that when a person makes more money they are always better off for having done so. Having a hard cutoff for benefits doesn't work and neither does a back-off system that matches income (e.g. at $25,000 you get $7,000)
For all the descriptions though, there is a key lack of how to easily describe it. It’s missing it’s catch phrase if you will.
Most actual examples are less blatant, but let's say our welfare system consists of a 12'000$ welfare for anyone who makes less than 12'000$ in income. If your job pays 11'000$, your take-home pay is 11+12 = 23'000$. If you do very well and get a 2000$ raise, your income is now 13'000$, so you don't get the welfare, and your take-home pay is now 13'000$, meaning you lost 23-13 = 10'000$ of effective income by getting a raise.
UBI can do this too - it's not clear to me what the practical differences between UBI and "negative income tax" are.
As opposed to a negative tax rate below some amount? Why would everyone not get that?
I guess it just feels like there are two equations that can be made equal so easily:
UBI_POLICY(income) = income + ubi_income - progressive_tax(income + ubi_constant)
NIT_POLICY(income) = income - progressive_tax(income) + negative_tax(income)
income + ubi_income - ubi_progressive_tax(income + ubi_constant) = income - nit_progressive_tax(income) + nit_negative_tax(income)
ubi_income - ubi_progressive_tax(income + ubi_constant) = nit_negative_tax(income) - nit_progressive_tax(income)
which seems a super easy thing to make equal. Is it the payments to folks that are different?
Negative income tax and yearly increases in tax allowances shift the burden on pay increases from the employer to the government and thus to the tax payer.
In the UK employers had no incentive to increase pay when the government increases the tax free allowance year after year, and employees seeing that their take home increases don’t really care where it comes form especially in the lower income brackets.
I personally don’t like UBI either because it’s essentially a transfer of wealth from the middle to the top.
I would much rather see a universal basic services program that guarantees universal free at the point of use access to services such as housing, healthcare and education provided directly by a government body or non for profit enterprises.
I agree that creating such a program creates political incentives for increasing it over time in excess of inflation. That's a real cost that needs to be weighed against alternative approaches.
But consider what happens when you make services "free at the point of use access". The price no longer serves the purpose of summarizing and transmitting information about the good or service. The consumer of the "free" good no longer gets any information about the scarcity or quality of the resource, and the provider no longer gets any information about the demand for their good and consequently how much to produce. Prices are the primary mechanism for coordinating decisions efficiently by summarizing actionable decision making information and economizing on expensive knowledge acquisition, interpretation, and communication costs.
It should hardly be a surprise when demand and consumption of those goods and services with a zero price goes up, and supply and quality goes down. Now suddenly you need to grow large bureaucracies for rationing the resources which will inevitably miss the mark of serving disparate individual needs as efficiently as the price mechanism could in a free market.
It's the classic recipe for degrading quality and creating shortages. I believe it's much more desirable for housing, healthcare, and education to be served by the market precisely because of how important they are to people. Putting cash into people's pockets directly has a much smaller distortive effect on market operations, and allows people to express their preferences in allowing them to vote with their dollars, as opposed to "free at point of service / consumption" goods and services.
It's no accident that UBI was proposed by Friedrich Hayek, and the Negative Income Tax by Milton Friedman. You could hardly accuse either of being in favor of wealth transfers, but they both understood the profound negative consequences of distorting prices, which essentially is lying to economic decision makers about the costs and benefits of taking certain actions, resulting in inevitably less efficient allocation of scarce resources that could possibly have been used more productively elsewhere in the economy.
We either have to completely change taxation and have wealth taxes and much higher corporate taxes as well as sufficient housing to ensure that most of UBI payouts don’t simply flow to a handful of landlords or find an alternative solution to UBI.
This is also the issue I have with UBI experiments, running an experiment that finds people lives improve when you give them money isn’t particularly interesting since all of these are too small scale to measure inflationary effects at a minimum an experiment that gives say a 1000 people UBI needs to have another group of people from income percentiles that are expected to fund it that will be taxed at a level that would incorporate the costing of the proposed UBI stipend.
There is no guarantee that anybody with any type of skill set will be offered a job aligned with their skills depending on economic issues. Skill is a vague idea.