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> I'm sure the nation-states have the money and people to work it out for themselves

I'd suspect it's less a matter of preventing them from developing the capability and more a matter of making them spend their own money to do so, rather than getting it for free and using those resources to develop some other capability.

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Russia and China may quite possibly have copies of some of NASA's export-controlled software anyway - through computer intrusion, or through old-fashioned means of espionage (threaten/induce someone with access to a copy to give it to them.) If there was some particular item they wanted, they probably could come up with it through those methods, given enough time and effort.

Is there a reason North Korea would be reluctant to sail the seven seas for a copy of Ansys?

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