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Comment by kyrieeschaton | Hacker News Reader

It's odd to hold as an assumption that the Russian government is the only entity that can synthesize this molecule.

It's also odd to take the word of "a laboratory of the German armed forces" as some sort of independent source in a clear political conflict.

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It's not that odd if you consider that Germany is a democracy and Russia is a dictatorship with a history of poisoning dissenters.

Read the story about this mathematician who has been sentenced to prison for 6 years in Russia. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2021/01/22/imprisoned-for-his-e...

At some point, we have to use some sort of priors to evaluate the truth of claims from various sources.

Security agencies of democratic regimes (that happen to be marginally accountable to the people elected) don't have the ability to synthesize known molecules and use them for political purposes? They don't have the ability to lie under the piercing eyes of lady liberty? That's sort of what they exist for.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/04/cia-director-used-fake...

If you ignore the evidence outside molecular signature yes, the “Moon of Alabama” hypothesis sounds plausible. Given the facts and circumstances, however, the conclusion becomes unavoidable.

The circumstances are that an english-tweeting western-sponsored Yale World Fellow with approximately zero actual Russian support found himself "poisoned" (nonfatally, of course) in a way politically useful to the west in their ongoing project of destabilizing Russia, as diagnosed by western security services.

> with approximately zero actual Russian support

Despite the fact that the odds are stacked (media controlled by United Russia, etc...) Navalny got 27% of the vote in 2013 Moscow election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Moscow_mayoral_election#C...

That is not exactly "zero actual support". And that was before the 2018 "pension" reforms.

Still not enough to force the hand of the ruling oligarchs just yet. When it's closer to half they're on to something.

If he has "zero actual Russian support," why would western security services go through the trouble of staging this?

That site is a shit show. Do you have a better source?

This is The Lancet, dude. The single source of truth for the medical profession ;-)

Do you have any evidence that other entities are using 'this molecule'?

As for being distrustful of Germany, well, you're of course free to make your own determinations there, as are everyone else that have been watching both nations. Personally, if one of Rainbow Vlad's minions told me the sky is blue, I'd have to double check.

Sure, here's an example of the CIA flatly lying about a separate novichok incident.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/04/cia-director-used-fake...

Might be but what entities are able to carry out such an attack in Tomsk: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Tomsk,+Tomsk+Oblast,+Russi...

"The rare Westerner in Tomsk will be met with wariness and curiosity, though seldom hostility."https://www.tripsavvy.com/tomsk-the-hidden-russia-1502232

Especially while Nawalny was under heavy FSB observation. And why did the russians "not find" any traces of Novichok? Why did the russians not start a massive investigation but have to wait for the official german report in the correct format or whatever.

If there would have been any possibility at all this being a false flag or a charade by Nawalny the city and airplane would be one big CSI labor.

It's not "a laboratory of the German armed forces". And it's not "clear political conflict" - it's Russia lying about destroying their chemical weapons and instead using them in Europe and UK - see Navalny and Skripal.

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