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Comment by Rochus | Hacker News Reader

> They are not very original in their music and lyrics. Or simply not very good. Or very good for a small niche.

Even if you're very good, it's a gamble; almost all celebrity stories contain the element that they simply met the right person or were in the right place at the right time. And fame doesn't correlate with how good you really are; there are various famous musicians who aren't technically good at all, but got their breakthrough for some other reason. So it is almost impossible to plan a successful career a priori or to estimate its chances of success. Just like in a game of chance.

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Is it not same concerning everything in life? "Favor comes to prepared minds".

> Favor comes to prepared minds

There are very many prepared minds to which the favor never comes.

> Is it not same concerning everything in life?

Sure, we all depend on fate, but there are many proven life courses where you can't make a decent living just by being lucky.

Give examples, please.

I should have added that marketing yourself as an indie is also important.

As well as timing and luck.

I don't think marketing is the decisive measure; sometimes it helps, sometimes it doesn't, sometimes it's unnecessary. As a famous example I mention Billie Eilish; I read that they uploaded their first famous song only on Soundcloud so that a friend could hear it; so not exactly an (intended) marketing measure; but as luck would have it, thousands then suddenly discovered and heard the song. The rest is history. But I know far more at least equally talented musicians who upload songs to Soundcloud without anyone taking notice.

Obviously marketing is not the dominant factor if you're as good and original as Billie Eilish.

PP's thesis was that many people on soundcloud are as good and original as Billie Eilish (or more so).

Presumably many musicians on soundclound are persistent and hard-working as well as insanely talented and original.

Marketing isn't the dominant factor for a new artist winning the pop music lottery. Luck is.

There's a lot of great music out there that will never be a hit song, and it's nice that we can still listen to it.

Unfortunately beeing "good" and "original" is not enough; and even if you make it as a musician, it doesn't mean that you can make a reasonable living from it (which is also addressed by the article).

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