The USA currently has nine million active cases. I actually think at this point if you have cold symptoms it may be more likely you have covid than a common cold.
(Though maybe someone has data in cold cases to clarify the cross over point)
(Though maybe someone has data in cold cases to clarify the cross over point)
Your intuition is wildly off-base here. Nearly all of us catch at least one cold a year, mostly during the winter months. There are, quite literally, hundreds of millions of colds a year. There's also ~half a dozen viruses in circulation at any given time that cause cold-like symptoms, vs. one for SARS-CoV2.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-23/coronavirus-restricti...
If we assume that's representative of a 90% reduction in flu and cold cases (not guaranteed, but probably a reasonable estimate to reason about), then perhaps instead of "hundreds of millions" of cases, it might be down to "tens of millions of cases" of cold/flu. So maybe 9 million Covid cases means any cold/flu symptoms are somewhere between 50% and 10% likely to be Covid - a virus currently killing ~1% of the people it infects.
I am certain the prudent thing to do in 2021 is assume _any_ cold/flu symptoms are likely to be a virus that's quite capable of killing you (and/or the people around you) and act accordingly until you are 100% certain it's not. (Which probably means 2 negative PCR tests ~10 days apart.)
...and cases are going up, so it's probably safe to assume that there are lots of colds being transmitted, as well. And as I said, there are many cold viruses in circulation, at all times.
Even if you believe that "the steps we are taking" are working, you have to assume that they're disproportionately effective for the common cold in order to make the statement the OP was making. Say what you will about SARS-CoV2, but it's more-or-less like any other respiratory virus in terms of transmission characteristics. There's no particular reason to believe that anything we're doing would stop rhinovirus or RSV, but not SARS-CoV2.
I am not. There are, right now, 5-6 cold viruses in common circulation. There is one SARS-CoV2 virus.
Nothing we are doing would be expected to suppress other respiratory viruses, but not this one.
Yes you were. In your first comment you said "Nearly all of us catch at least one cold a year, mostly during the winter months. There are, quite literally, hundreds of millions of colds a year." Those are numbers in a normal cold year. This isn't a normal cold year.
>Nothing we are doing would be expected to suppress other respiratory viruses, but not this one.
I'm not sure where this line of argument came from as no one was arguing against it. The assumption is that these COVID precautions are equally effective against the cold, flu, COVID, and other similar respiratory diseases. This will lead to a huge drop in those non-COVID diseases as the precautions we are taking are so drastic compared to a normal year.
You can divide the number by any factor you want, but there are still ~6x the number of viruses out there causing colds. Even now.
The variety of viruses is totally irrelevant to the original question of what are one's odds of having COVID based on having cold symptoms. The only piece of information that matters for that are the aggregate numbers and aggregate numbers from previous years are misleading.
It is an essential factor, unless you make the (implausible) assumption that we have essentially eliminated all other respiratory viruses except for SARS-CoV2.
Whether there is 1 version, 6 different versions, or 1 million different versions of colds is irrelevant to your odds of having COVID when you show symptoms. What matters is whether there is 1 person, 6 people, or 1 million people with colds. The variety is meaningless. What matters is the aggregate number of cases.
Not to mention it is wise and courteous to stay home and avoid exposing yourself to lots of people when you are sick regardless of if its COVID or not.
This issue existed long before COVID. COVID is spreading partially due to this issue. Many people have no choice but work to avoid homelessness and/or hunger.
I am personally on subcutaneous immunoglobulin for two rare immune-mediated neurological diseases, and I have not had a cold in over 3 years, when I would get them a couple of times per year. It helps tremendously.
These are the 10 warning signs of primary immune deficiency in adults:
Adults
If you have two or more of these signs, speak to your doctor about a possible Primary Immunodeficiency.
1. Two or more new ear infections within 1 year
2. Two or more new sinus infections within 1 year, in the absence of allergy
3. One pneumonia per year for more than 1 year
4. Chronic diarrhea with weight loss
5. Recurrent viral infections (colds, herpes, warts, condyloma)
6. Recurrent need for intravenous antibiotics to clear infections
7. Recurrent, deep abscesses of the skin or internal organs
8. Persistent thrush or fungal infection on skin or elsewhere
9. Infection with normally harmless tuberculosis-like bacteria
10. A family history of Primary Immunodeficiency
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03519-3
For the broader point, regardless whether or not someone is more likely to have a common cold or COVID given the same group of symptoms, I think the point stands that if someone has symptoms consistent with COVID they should proceed as-if they have COVID -- especially given the current case rate in US.
There aren't great stats for the common cold, but the flu seems to be affecting only a quarter of the people hit by it in a usual year.