Is there a market for put options on bitcoins?
Seeing the bubble is the easy part. Timing the top? Much harder!
I don’t mean that in a “collapse of western civilisation”-sense - I mean it more that Biden may normalise relations with countries where Bitcoin is used for-real because of sanctions or concerns over economic disenfranchisement: if people (and oligarchs) in Russia, Iran and Venezuela can participate in the normative financial systems (SWIFT, Visa, Mastercard, etc) then BTC has far less real utility and thus less value.
Heck, I think if more US states and other countries legalise drugs that would also deal a blow (no pun intended) to BTC’s price.
Just wanted to know if it existed.
(Unlike some other place LedgerX is physically delivered, and not just a bucket-shop sidebet on the market).
They have contracts out to Dec2022, though volume on the Dec2022 contracts haven't been particularly significant yet and generally puts trade much less vigorously than calls there.
If you understand that Bitcoin options really aren't options then this shouldn't come as a surprise.
Shady exchanges see massive positions and have successfully manipulated bids and ask (most of it is fake) to trick others into selling or buying which in turn moves prices even more.
Once they take out the "option traders" they simply move on to the next.
Yet the inexperienced "speculator" believes its his fault.
Wat I credit bitcoin and its community for is its ability to create a bubble of their version of reality which is almost always getting people to buy the bitcoins they are already holding. Without them, the system would collapse and they would lose their investment.
Bitcoin is a vehicle for transfering wealth from the FOMO ignorant crowd who shouldn't be speculating on ponzi schemes. So many ruined lives because little guys bought into crypto, ICO, and other false hopes.
Bitcoin will bankrupt a lot more people I'm afraid.
But to me, a birdseye view of bitcoin is a currency that's created by design to be deflationary, that found a niche as a value store. Sure, there are ups and downs, and also considerable risks long term (regulatory first of all), but it should be noted that pretty much anybody that ever bought btc has lived to see a higher price, regardless of ups and downs. That's what makes it very good for what it does (long term value store).