Comment by geraldbauer | Hacker News Reader

Comment by geraldbauer | Hacker News Reader

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For a best of crypto quotes incl. pumping up the gigantic Bitcoin ponzi, see https://github.com/openblockchains/crypto-quotes

SCAM ALERT! SCAM ALERT! SCAM ALERT!

> The U.S. Dollar is no longer a reliable store of value. Cameron and I (Winklevoss Twins Capital) make the case for $500 000 Bitcoin. Number go up! To the moon!

> When Elon Musk puts the Tesla balance sheet into Bitcoin, we'll have to change the Bitcoin rallying cry from "to the moon!" to "to Mars!"

-- Tyler Winklevoss, Bitcoin Billionaire

or

> There are 3.5 billion smart phones on the planet. All of them can hold bitcoin. None of them can hold gold. Bitcoin is the future. Number go up! To the moon!

-- Cameron Winklevoss, Bitcoin Billionaire

Given the challenge of how to invest $600 million in treasury reserves, after a lifetime of experience and months of analysis, I decided on an allocation of 100% Bitcoin, 0% Bonds, 0% Stocks, 0% Real Estate, 0% Gold. Seems rational to me. Number go up! To the moon!

-- Michael Saylor, Business Intelligence Billionaire

and on on.

How, without every government banning it, do you see bitcoin's value going to zero?

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-feds-balance-sheet-the-...

Instead of zero, more like penny-stock prices like Dogecoin and Garliccoin. I see that happening if something better comes along. The first thing that comes to mind is a proof-of-stake system instead of proof-of-work - the energy savings would be considerable - which then replaces BTC.

I remember there was expectation that LTC would get somewhere on the basis that the utility of the Lightning Network give it far more inherent value than BTC’s slower settlement scheme.

I’unno man - Tulips still have value today, don’t they?

Is there a market for put options on bitcoins?

You may be joking, but there are plenty of those.

Seeing the bubble is the easy part. Timing the top? Much harder!

I think 15th of January 2021 is a good candidate for a tipping point. Unless NYAG backs out again, postponing their move against Tether.

If you guys know where one could secure those types of put options, please fill me in. The only avenue atm for me seems to be a spread bet on margin... Which I'm not that keen on as "market irrational for longer than solvent" and so forth.

If I was a betting man I’d say the 21st January - because I can’t help but think BTC’s inflated price is predicated on the uncertainties in our political situation.

I don’t mean that in a “collapse of western civilisation”-sense - I mean it more that Biden may normalise relations with countries where Bitcoin is used for-real because of sanctions or concerns over economic disenfranchisement: if people (and oligarchs) in Russia, Iran and Venezuela can participate in the normative financial systems (SWIFT, Visa, Mastercard, etc) then BTC has far less real utility and thus less value.

Heck, I think if more US states and other countries legalise drugs that would also deal a blow (no pun intended) to BTC’s price.

Definitely not a joke. Either side of that trade is a good way to lose money, so I'm not participating.

Just wanted to know if it existed.

For US investors? Sure. LedgerX.

(Unlike some other place LedgerX is physically delivered, and not just a bucket-shop sidebet on the market).

They have contracts out to Dec2022, though volume on the Dec2022 contracts haven't been particularly significant yet and generally puts trade much less vigorously than calls there.

https://trade.ledgerx.com/live

It is stupid to short Bitcoin. Bitcoin has no fundamental value, but its fundamental value is greater than zero. Since the value of a Bitcoin is impossible to predict it could just as easily go up as down.

This is true, but only because nothing has fundamental value.

Food and water have fundamental value.

Only if you're lacking them.

absolutely, Deribit is the market leader on that. just be careful, put options on BTC have bankrupted a lot of people.

> put options on BTC have bankrupted a lot of people.

If you understand that Bitcoin options really aren't options then this shouldn't come as a surprise.

Shady exchanges see massive positions and have successfully manipulated bids and ask (most of it is fake) to trick others into selling or buying which in turn moves prices even more.

Once they take out the "option traders" they simply move on to the next.

Yet the inexperienced "speculator" believes its his fault.

Wat I credit bitcoin and its community for is its ability to create a bubble of their version of reality which is almost always getting people to buy the bitcoins they are already holding. Without them, the system would collapse and they would lose their investment.

Bitcoin is a vehicle for transfering wealth from the FOMO ignorant crowd who shouldn't be speculating on ponzi schemes. So many ruined lives because little guys bought into crypto, ICO, and other false hopes.

Bitcoin will bankrupt a lot more people I'm afraid.

Deribit is a legitimate exchange.

If you play the market sure, you should expect a hefty risk to get burned.

But to me, a birdseye view of bitcoin is a currency that's created by design to be deflationary, that found a niche as a value store. Sure, there are ups and downs, and also considerable risks long term (regulatory first of all), but it should be noted that pretty much anybody that ever bought btc has lived to see a higher price, regardless of ups and downs. That's what makes it very good for what it does (long term value store).

You weren't joking. They've got a live count per day [0].

[0]: https://pro.deribit.com/statistics/BTC/insurance-fund

If you think you can time the top, why not try Tesla?

I didn't claim I could. I was just wondering if there was a derivative market yet. Speculation on speculation.

Deribit

Bernie Madoff went to jail when he couldn't sustain his scam any longer. When the crypto bubble pops, the prison-as-a-service industry might experience a boom since they won't have enough cells to house all the scamsters.

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