[1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/02/worlds-r...
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/07/how-much-money-you-need-to-b...
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/02/worlds-r...
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/07/how-much-money-you-need-to-b...
On the other hand, your point about solar vs coal is wrong. It takes less time now to build a solar power plant than a coal power plant. Especially for developing countries that don't already have substantial port and/or rail infrastructure. And this applies somewhat to natural gas, too. It's diesel that they tend to run for this reason. Solar, and now solar + storage, can compete just fine with diesel (and solar + storage + diesel is a pretty resilient combination that also can be built out super fast, is very cheap to build and operate, and also happens to get you to like 80-90% carbonfree... so there's decent hope out there).
As far as solar goes, clearly coal is cheaper than solar in Nigeria because that's what they're mostly building now. Regulations and subsidies are what make solar cheaper than coal in the US.
Edit: To be clear, I'm completely in favor of coal being replaced by renewables. I'm just pointing this out to raise awareness of the economic realities that are incentivizing coal power in developing countries.
https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-...
https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2020/Jun/Renewa...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_renewable_energy#Comp...
I remember my department had a few very large grants for solar and wind integration studies. There is always some x profitable level to integrate into some portion of the grid. Before you actually start to lose money. Used to be around 30% in most cases a decade ago. Imagine it is bit asymptotic without improvements to the cost of energy storage. I would guess 40% in most cases now.
Found this: https://www.iea.org/articles/will-system-integration-of-rene...
Check out South Australia on OpenNEM [1]. Paired with natural gas and transmission, they're at an exceptionally high amount of renewables penetration [2] and have a very low cost of power in Australia [3]. They're also using a large, recently expanded, Tesla utility scale battery for ancillary/frequency response services [4] (previously profitably performed by natural gas generators), which is causing financial pain for those mentioned gas operators (who are having trouble profiting now on either the power provided or frequency response services).
[1] https://opennem.org.au/energy/sa1/?range=7d&interval=30m
[2] https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/coal-generatio...
[3] https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/24/south...
Phoenix and Las Vegas come to mind - places where incident solar flux and electricity demand (due to heavy air conditioner use) almost perfectly coincide (peaks are separated by only ~50 minutes)
That said, I think this analysis misses two important factors when it comes to impoverished countries. Otherwise, you would see more solar there. Developing countries have much lower standards when it comes to building a new power plant, so don't need to pay for sulfur scrubbers. The other factor is that unskilled labor much cheaper there. Solar and wind require much higher-skill labor as there is much more maintenance that needs to be done.
Are you sure that the steam turbine (high RPM, balancing, thermal stress to blades, steam conditioning) is easier to maintain than a electric generator or an array of photovoltaics with control circuits?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/12990532
> The owners of Australia's newest coal-fired power station have written down the value of the asset to zero, wiping out a $1.2 billion investment in the face of an onslaught of renewable energy. ... The decision was booked in Sumitomo's September accounts, in which the company acknowledged the facility was worthless despite being barely 10 years old.
It’s even cheaper in third-world countries (and China) due to the cost of labor.
[1] https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-real-costs-of-u-s-ene...
Nigeria is closer to the equator and has lower labor costs for installation, so their solar costs will be even cheaper.
Like every industry in the last decade, coal generators have also become more efficient.
I’d be shocked (heh) if solar power becomes more efficient given the Shockley-Quessier limit of PV cells which have a maximum efficiency in the best theoretical case with an infinite stacking of panels of 30%. Large synchronous machines on the other hand, in practice, can have a 95% efficiency.
Here’s a study without the “carbon pricing”: https://energy.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/MITEI-WP-2...
Again coal is much cheaper.
I’m sympathetic to your agenda but it’s deceitful and unfair to presume agreement given the unique circumstances theses results affect conclusions. A place like Nigeria has to worry about what’s happening to their people in the next month rather than in the next 50 years, thus they’ll have different trade offs to make.
As soon as you need to store energy wind and solar become much more expensive.
Firtly, thats a circular argument:"clearly bloodletting works because everyone is using it"
Secondary, the argument is meanongless without a timespan - for example a hydroelectric dam is the chepest source of electricity ever, but is very expensive upfront: no private investor wants to fund that because their returns will take decades. Channel tonnel is profitable now, but initial investort got wrecked, etc.
A hypothetical asset that lasts forever has infinite ROI but if it takes you 200 years to make your money back noone will invest.
If someone said a coal plant is being built in Nigeria, my first thought that this is being forced on them by creditors that probably already own a bunch of coal.
If we want to find out what's cheaper in order to decide what it is more reasonable to build, we can't rely on the fact that something is actually being built as an argument. It's the other way around - first we decide what's better, then do it, otherwise whatever we do would be right since we're doing that.
Or - in this case - if you assume that those calculations were made and it was found that the coal is cheaper - and that's why they're building coal plants - then there is a question of discrepancy (coal is more expensive lately than solar according to <sources>), which needs to be addressed, otherwise it might be assumed that a mistake was made.
> Regulations and subsidies are what make solar cheaper than coal in the US.
Doesn't coal industry also receive subsidies, and aren't those subsides comparable or bigger than subsidies for solar? I'm not sure; are you?
I didn’t follow the logic there. Are you saying everything everyone does is right?
I dig that, but it’s a strange thing to see in an argument.
We can't assume a proposition is correct if we're trying to figure out if it's correct or not.
The post I'm replying to was in effect "coal is cheaper since they're building coal plants". I disagree, and show why the logic is "illogical".
You don't have to go to bat for china, you know. Does the fact that they have so much manufacturing make their emissions ok? If those manufacturing emissions we're instead from the US, would you make the same note?
Ok, so Saudi Arabia is responsible for America's emissions. Russia is responsible for Europe's emissions. America is responsible for China's emissions.
But let's just keep playing word games to deflect responsibility from China and make sure it's all America's fault.
Please stop parroting this. Coal is cheaper than solar in the same way that a house with no down payment is free. The environmental debt from coal's CO2 emissions will far exceed costs of solar.
Except that rich europeans got the "house with no down payment" for centuries, but now expect poor africans to put down a down payment? That's going to be a hard sell to poor africans desperate to get out of poverty.
> The environmental debt from coal's CO2 emissions will far exceed costs of solar.
Expecting poor africans to give a shit is going to be a real hard sell. Especially when the climate problem is almost exclusively a rich european creation and poor africans had nothing to do with it.
Caring about climate is an enterprise of the privileged few. Unless we are willing to subsidize billions of poor africans and others around the world to the tune of trillions of dollars, I think africans and everyone else are going to go with the lowest hanging fruit. It's 2021 and hundreds of millions of africans live with electricity today. Think about that. It's insane. Considering the centuries of suffering they endured, if they have to burn down the planet to get some semblance of good life, then so be it. Let europe live in mud huts for a few centuries.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/600-million-africans-go-with...
What you said is 100% right, just the tone was a bit harsh. Since this site mostly has people from rich countries who refuse to learn history and accept any blame, you will be downvoted.
This kind of vindictive rhetoric is probably something we should try to avoid in times like these. Even if you’re just “trying to make a point”.
Really our only chance of solving the climate is doubling down on high tech. Turning Europe back centuries would be clearly counterproductive.
I can just buy an AC and pay for electric heating. I'm not so sure that every African can do that.
Well that's because china was late to industrialization ( by 150 years ) has come from a low emission base. And even if ignore the fact that a significant chunk of china's emissions are dedicated solely to manufacturing goods/junk for the west, if we completely stopped all emissions, it would still take china many decades of emissions to catch up to the emission's put out by the west the past 200 years or so.
> China's per capita emissions have risen from 5.25 tCO2/capita in 2007 to 8.12t in 2019 while the UK's have dropped to now just 5.45tCO2.
That's deceptive since much of UK's emissions was export to china via manufacturing. It's like your roommate "cleaning" his room by dump his trash in your room.
Just by something as basic as "standard of living", it's a certainty that the west, and especially the UK, accounts for far more emissions on a per capita basis. It's impossible that on a per capita basis, a brit has lower emission footprint that a chinese person, indian, african, etc.
Certainly, we aren't any better here in the US. I remember watching a documentary that said that if everyone on earth lived like us, it would take like 5 additional earth's resources.
Total UK emissions including imported emissions have been falling since 2007.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoracco...
Solar is cheaper & quicker to build & run than coal plants. And it can be built incrementally and start generating power and profits very quickly, compared to traditional power plants, which are large construction projects that don't generate power or profit until after they're completed.
Acemoglu and Robinson's concept of "extractive elites" is useful here.[1]
1. http://whynationsfail.com/blog/2012/5/1/who-are-the-extracti...
I sure know which one I want to bet the future of the planet on.
This doesn't mean you can't have nuclear, but it's no longer necessarily.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/germanys-energie...
This is an interesting point, but I don't get the cause and effect scenario here.
What bothers me is the ideological trap that fossil fuels are the only resources that can be exploited to bring people out of poverty.
Are we so lacking in innovation that we cannot come up with sustainable development models?
Meanwhile people are 'investing' in bitcoin, and pumping meme stocks.
At this point the amount of self harm in the population is so great that there is nothing to be done. Is this the curse of right wing populism? Why do disenfranchised people love voting for people that don't care about them? Trump didn't win the election but he still had lots of support even though he was only looking out for himself (and others like him) during his presidency.
Green investments are such an incredibly easy way to implement jobs programs yet people hate on them because they believe not subsidizing anything is more important than solving real problems like domestic underemployment. Yes, when I talk about green investments I am not even considering how you are doing something for the planet, I'm just talking about the economic impact of building up a domestic industry. For all intents and purposes you could also have spent money on maintaining roads or building lots of houses for all I care but when you listen to someone like Trump he would spend it on useless crap like coal. There are very little employment opportunities (if you ignore the work needed to undo the CO2 emissions) in a dying industry. But hey, it's got high visibility and is an emotional topic so lets shoot renewables down in favor of it even though you had more to benefit from the "green scam" (hyperbole) than coal.
China is doing an extreme amount of jobs programs. All those ghost cities are there to employ construction workers first, sell capital to wealthy individuals and eventually be populated by immigrants. They also loan money to developing countries and build infrastructure for them.
Well, yes. We Americans are fat, lazy and comfortable. 70 years of being on top will do that to you. But we are still voracious, even in old age, and will happily burn resources on our vanity, greed, and, perhaps worst of all, mere convenience. We are not willing to inconvenience ourselves to address global threats. (And that alone is enough to disqualify us from any kind of global leadership role.)
(In fact I believe it was a twin existential threat that led them to loose their minds. Global climate change requires of Democracy what I call a "voluntary contraction". This is impossible to accept by the many people in this culture who feel entitled to earn/consume even more than their parents, and their grandparents, because it's been that way for 80 years. Sustainability changes this; it means accepting that you'll have less material wealth than your parents. The other threat is more personal: politically correct thought policing from the left, complete with mob enforcement through cancel culture. Together these threats might be powerful enough to cause a delusion in which one is saved from reality by a reality TV star.)
There is actually more wealth to be gained for the average person because green investments can be an effective domestic jobs program. Central bank money is merely increasing the relative value of wealthy people's assets. So it's a net loss for the working class. If wealth inequality grows by 2x they owe the rich twice as much. If that money could be channeled in a way that pays the income of workers and actually gets spent it would mean that economic growth will come back and incomes will grow over time instead of stagnating.
[1]: https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10...
It is _faster_ and _cheaper_ for Nigeria to build a solar plant right now. [0] We've crossed over that line.
[0] https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a34372005/solar-che...
The richest 760 million people are responsible for half of all CO2 emissions.
I am imagine that includes the cars, big homes, the electricity, and all the products that we buy from China.
I’m not sure what you want us to do with that information. There’s nothing actionable in that observation.
We should’ve stopped using coal two decades ago. I’m sure we can spend all night talking about this, but it’s all been said before.
Not sure why you're calling this out. Container shipping is very efficient.
We have to look at the entire supply chain if we want to reduce our emissions.
Making sure my manufacturered imports are carbon neutral will be difficult. All the other indirect emissions will also be hard to account for.
The issue here is probably that there are so many people on earth you'd have to invest in so many places that you'd be a poor country before getting any returns.
I think this is only because historically, the only realistic way to produce energy for a lot of nations was by burning fossil fuels. No poor nation 70 years ago would be able to construct a nuclear plant or build a massive dam. Now, we have renewable sources available for a much lower upfront cost than what was available historically.
Coal is on the way out and nothing can stop that now.
Global PV production capacity is ~170GW per year, current fossil generation capacity in Africa is about 135GW. Not outlandish to get that replaced in short order while accounting for growth. Want it done faster? Build more PV manufacturing capacity. The product is glass and silicon with a hint of rare earths. PV panels are almost 100% recyclable.
Overbuilt renewables should be used to sequester atmospheric carbon instead of curtailing (throwing excess renewables away when unneeded). It’s going to take an incredible amount of energy to stick all of that burned carbon from the last 100 years back into the ground.
TLDR “You must construct additional pylons.”
Countries like Australia have massive amounts of underutilized renewable energy that are not being used to their fullest extent combined with an American like obsession with cars.
We should be focusing on areas where easy wins can be made rather than looking at countries with the highest level of emissions which is a pointless statistic when they all have different population counts.
A ton of quick wins that amount to minimal real changes to total emissions isn't going to stop the earth from heating too fast
I think the real resistance, is the drug of indignation. Folks are manufacturing it all the time, latching onto anything they can find to get spun up about. With negligible attention to facts. Its the one constant in our brave new world.