U.S. Capitol Locked Down Amid Escalating Protests
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Re the comments about flags: the messy tug-of-war that you're seeing between upvotes, flags, and moderating is what always happens with this kind of story, so if you're drawing any significant conclusion about HN from this one case, it's probably exaggerated: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...
While I have you: before commenting, make sure you're up to date on the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. They've changed significantly in the last year. Here's the kind of discussion we want: thoughtful, curious, substantive. Here's the kind we don't want: snarky, reflexive, attacking. Make sure you can follow the core rule—"Be kind."—and its corollary, which hasn't yet made it into the doc: "If you're hot under the collar, please cool down before posting." That's in your interest for two reasons: your views will be better represented, and you'll help to preserve the all-too-fragile commons that we all depend on.
(Also, for those who haven't seen any of my annoying mentions of this yet, large threads on HN are currently paginated for performance reasons, which means you need to click More at the bottom of the thread to get to the rest of the comments—or like this:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25661474&p=2
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25661474&p=3
Like it or not, we haven't exactly done a great job at exposing primary sources to everyone. Until that can happen, media outlets who pay for boots on the ground will still have a degree of intutively granted credibility. Once everyone knows how to access it at will (and can be bothered to) we may see some better measurement on the reliabilitt of information sources.
Big chunks of the media decided a long time ago that they could make money by just pandering to angry people, and here we are.
And then social media decided to cut out the cost of producing content, and just put angry people in a cage together.
To be fair, they probably shouldn't be counted in that regard, but it is how they have branded themselves.
Both sides have "news" outlets which are agenda based and profit motivated. And truth doesn't usually sell as well. That's a problem. You can't even trust the fact checker sources as they say "out of context" or "partially true" when it's a fact against their agenda/team. Even the fact checking sites are super biased.
If you align with a side, you attach your identity to it like Paul Graham wrote about with Keep Your Identity Small [1]. People don't like their identity criticized, or want to believe they may be wrong, so they believe what they want and create their own distorted bubble.
My buddy always said "we're told to not talk about religion or politics. Probably the 2 most powerful and influential topics that exist". Now people have started talking about them, but not in a productive fashion.
If you believe someone on the other side is bad based on their views, you can't have a dialogue. This is the greatest tragedy. Disowning family members and friends over their views because you concluded they must be bad people?
Very few people on either side are actually bad. They just have a different experience, they've aligned their identity and team, and there's a ton of forces at play (ex: media, special interests, etc) to keep that divisiveness going.
The problem with the both sides argument is that one side is disproportionately loose with the truth and constantly resorting to not just half-truths, but complete fabrications.
Without good faith there will be no useful dialogue.
So maybe one side fabricates more and one side withholds more. Two ways to be scandalous. They are both profit driven and aren't truthful any way you slice it. They are not trustworthy with news and cannot be relied upon to be objective. Even the shows positioned as news are super biased and full of opinions.
I understand they are entitled to have opinionated segments with personalities. That's fine.
But we have regulations around what is Champagne or Bourbon. And you need a license to cut hair. Maybe anything dubbed "news" should have a standard?
I certainly don't know what the right answer here is, or even if there is one. The flip side of this polarization is the Internet has allowed discriminated groups to organize (e.g. see the "It Gets Better Project")
A pretty good doc about it; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Brainwashing_of_My_Dad
How exactly did he get into listening to that stuff? Were there no other choices? Not music? Not NPR?
My theory is pretty simple: anger (and especially anger with an object of blame) is like a drug, and he got addicted. I think it’s as simple as that.
This is the story I never believe. My reaction to hearing Rush Limbaugh is the desire to shut it off ASAP. Don't you have to willingly invite him into your life? To listen and enjoy and want to listen more, to even "experiment" with the drug of anger with an object of blame, is not very indicative of kind and optimistic IMO.
The thing is, people are complex. They can be very kind... to their own kind, if you know what I mean. Alternatively, some parents can be kind to everyone else's kids and be abusive toward their own. It's almost always nuanced. You may only see side one side of a person, even if you think you know them better than anyone else.
It's more like, I wouldn't say that the vodka distillery is the cause of alcoholism.
Anyhoo, I agree with you on the politics of the matter, but I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree about whether my dad was a good person who fell into the sway of bad influences or was a bad person all along.
The crucial difference is that cigarettes are targeted at children, and the majority of smokers become addicted before they become adults. Whereas the audience for Limbaugh, Fox News, etc., skews much much older. Everyone is complaining about how their dad was brainwashed, not about how their child was brainwashed. How many smokers start as dads rather than as teenagers?
(To further clarify: Alcoholics are a minority of alcohol drinkers. The majority of drinkers drink simply because they enjoy drinking, and they could quit if they wanted to without withdrawal symptoms. In fact I quit drinking entirely when the pandemic started, for several reasons, and I'm fine, I feel like I could continue abstaining indefinitely with no ill effects. Thus, I don't consider the purpose of the alcohol industry to be hooking junkies, whereas that's almost unavoidable with nicotine, which is medically established to be highly addictive.)
> we’ll have to agree to disagree about whether my dad was a good person who fell into the sway of bad influences or was a bad person all along.
I don't believe in such black and white, good and bad people. As I said, people are complex. "It's almost always nuanced. You may only see side one side of a person". I think we're all flawed, just in different ways. My claim is that Rush Limbaugh is not a magical snake charmer, he's a guy who tells some people what they want to hear, otherwise how do you explain how you yourself are "magically" immune to his charms?
This is the missing piece in the explanatory puzzle about propaganda. It's easy to point out, but you can't jump to conclusions about its effectiveness without explaining why you who are pointing it out were not affected.
If propaganda comes in small amounts, it will not be apparent and one can fall victim of it.
If it comes in a sudden, big quantity, people may react with disgust and be more wary of similar content in smaller amounts.
For an example, younger people can easily be effected watching videos with slight racism. Yet if you were to put a straight up neonazi speech in front of them, they would probably be disgusted.
I think that’s the core of the problem on both sides.
This is similar to how I view 4chan. I almost went down that path because I started viewing it as an edgy teen and thought it's just fun and memes, no one takes this stuff seriously. But over time it becomes normalized and they do start taking it seriously. Looking at it now and I assume as a "normal" person seeing it for the first time, it's crazy.
This sounds more plausible. However, it's in direct conflict with the claim "I can pinpoint it to exactly when my dad started listening to Rush Limbaugh".
I feel that there's a whiff of "Reefer Madness" in the hysteria against partisan media, as if mere exposure will drive unsuspecting innocents mad.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/06/22/1-feelings-a...
https://theweek.com/articles/880107/why-fox-news-created
> If Fox News had a DNA test, it would trace its origins to the Nixon administration. In 1970, political consultant Roger Ailes and other Nixon aides came up with a plan to create a new TV network that would circumvent existing media and provide "pro-administration" coverage to millions. "People are lazy," the aides explained in a memo. "With television you just sit — watch — listen. The thinking is done for you." Nixon embraced the idea, saying he and his supporters needed "our own news" from a network that would lead "a brutal, vicious attack on the opposition." Alas, his fantasy network did not come into being at that time, and the 37th president was soon engulfed in the Watergate scandal. At first, Republicans dismissed the scandal as a Washington Post "witch hunt." But then the White House tapes proved beyond doubt that Nixon had used the levers of government to pursue vendettas against his opponents and cover up his extensive skulduggery. Disgusted GOP leaders, including Sen. Howard Baker of the Senate Watergate committee, chose principles over party. Nixon was forced to resign.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/11/newt-gi...
> “One of the great problems we have in the Republican Party is that we don’t encourage you to be nasty,” he told the group. “We encourage you to be neat, obedient, and loyal, and faithful, and all those Boy Scout words, which would be great around the campfire but are lousy in politics.”
It's there to treat everything as 9/11 and blow every story put of proportion
I am willing to buy this argument.
The Internet just ushered in post-modernism on a global scale, which undoes a lot of the thought-unification (some would say thought-control) that came with modernity.
0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Paul_Marat 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iskra 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Der_St%C3%BCrmer
But the broader point that the French Revolution was proceeded by a radicalized literature [0] is accurate (Sieyes' "What is the Third Estate?" is the most famous work [1]). Though it's contribution to the origins of the Revolution is the matter of some debate [2].
[0] For a good overview, see the work of Robert Darnton, esp. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674536579 [1] https://fr.m.wikisource.org/wiki/Qu’est-ce_que_le_tiers_état... (I don't recall if there's a full English translation of this... there are excerpts in Keith Baker's French Revolution reader (U Chicago Press) [2] One of the better treatments of this is https://www.dukeupress.edu/The-Cultural-Origins-of-the-Frenc...
Now that anyone can publish anything, and make it appear reasonably professional, there's much more competition for everyone's attention.
And the media outlets who cater to specific biases, and are outspoken and over-the-top, seem to win the attention.
That has allowed traditionally marginalized news sources that embrace less-vetted news to shine. Say what you want about Alex Jones, but he was covering Jeffery Epstein's lolita express/island in 2008 and no one would touch that story back then. So now we have the marginalized news sources ending up larger viewerships than the national evening news. So while you do get real news which is less skewed left or right than in the MSM, it is wrapped with plenty of crap and is less vetted.
The news industry, politicians, and big tech censorship has made this problem. Now they get to lay in their beds. It sucks, I'm not a fan of what's going on in DC right now, but I also don't blame those doing what they feel they must for their country. They are merely products of the system that made them. Until the MSM and politicians decide to stop twisting everything for market share or political gain this will continue to escalate. And we know that won't happen sadly.
It doesn’t matter very much if one side is more crass, or tells more obvious lies.
It matters a lot if everybody has derelicted the attempt to represent views and understandings across the spectrum, and it’s important that we be able to distinguish that situation from just blaming a particular actor.
Perhaps you have something deeper to offer though?
Agreed.
> there is no "spectrum"
Only true in a pedantic and useless sense.
It certainly is possible to cluster and organize political preferences.
> there are only "particular actors" and people decide in real time which particular actors they prefer to focus their attention on.
Without further explanation this is just a frame which doesn’t add meaning on its own.
Overall it’s not clear what you have added here.
No. It's true in the sense that you cannot impugn a particular part of the spectrum for the actions of individuals because there is no way to reliably quantify dishonesty much less attribute its distribution across a poorly defined political continuum.
> Without further explanation this is just a frame which doesn’t add meaning on its own.
In other words, dishonesty is everywhere and it's trivial to collate a mountain of cherry-picked evidence from a particular part of the continuum to support the conclusion that a certain part of the continuum is dishonest.
> Overall it’s not clear what you have added here.
Your pretentious snark is bad form and unnecessary.
This isn’t pretentious snark. It’s an expression of surprise, and feedback that you really don’t seem to be making a clear point.
You reduced my original comment to “everyone is biased, this is not a deep insight”.
I thought you might have something deeper to add, so I was surprised not to see it.
“It's true in the sense that you cannot impugn a particular part of the spectrum for the actions of individuals because there is no way to reliably quantify dishonesty much less attribute its distribution across a poorly defined political continuum.”
This seems like a re-statement of the original comment I made in response to the post about FOX. I guess we agree about that.
It continues not to be clear what you are trying to add.
Yes, we agree on this point, what I'm critiquing is your injection of this obvious fact into a discussion about a specific event that can be attributed to the particular type of misinformation spread by FOX, the fact that "there is ideological distortion going on everywhere" is beside the point, obviously that's true, so what? If an oil spill dumps millions of barrels into the ocean and someone exclaims "wow, these oil spills are really destroying the environment" your response is akin to "yes, but pollution is a global problem that includes more than just oil spills", yes, nobody is arguing otherwise, so what's your point?
So really you are just saying this was caused by FOX.
You could have just said that.
In my view our political environment is much more complex than that and involves a pattern of escalations which can’t be so reductively disentangled.
I accept that you disagree with this.
When the NYT misrepresents something, for example, it contributes to the narrative of distortion just as much as when FOX openly claims there is distortion.
FOX news as far as I am aware has maintained that there is no evidence of election fraud, and called the election for Biden very early, so it’s not clear how you attribute this event to them. I don’t watch it, so I could be wrong about this, but it wouldn’t change the point.
The problem is not so easily attributable to a particular media outlet.
I wish it were that easy.
Read more closely, that's not what I said.
> a specific event that can be attributed to the particular type of misinformation spread by FOX
So no, I didn't say this was caused by FOX.
That sounds like you are saying FOX is a cause, although perhaps not the only cause.
If you don’t want it to sound like that, why not explain what ‘particular type’ of misinformation you think the event is attributable to?
FOX is now regarded as a traitorous part of the MSM by Trump supporters because they didn’t push that narrative.
Newsmax is the channel that has been pushing it as if it is true.
FOX has been reporting that there is no evidence that the election was stolen.
Possibly. I follow occasional links to fox, have done some searches and also read reporting about FOX.
I don’t watch it every day because I find it unbearable, as I do CNN and really any TV news.
Can you link to a piece where they report that the election was stolen?
Every news outlet is reporting on people who claim it was stolen, but that is not the same as claiming it themselves.
Here is a nice piece which explains why our current crisis can’t so easily be reduced to a particular piece of rhetoric.
Of course Trump is the proximate cause, and nothing justifies his lies about the election, but there is a lot more going on than that.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/american-cr...
If all we had to deal with is bias in decision making which resulted in suboptimal outcome, things would still be okay, as long as people making decisions and in position of authority (which includes voters) are still honestly thinking that one strategy will yield the best outcome for all of society.
But as soon as people start being dishonest for self-interest reasons, they've subsumed the goal for their own, that's the real problem. I'd rather have someone in charge whose not the best at coming up with strategies and approaches that meet the goal, possibly due to their bias or other reasons, but is at least trying their best, then someone whose trying to manipulate support and slowly put goons they control in various positions so that they can just focus on their own self-interest and promotion while pretending to everyone that this is in our interest.
The hyperpolarization is not to do with the right vs left dichotomy so much as it is a deliberate, encouraged-by-both-sides establishment of a false dichotomy designed to pen people into a small range of discourse. Some call this the Overton window; the deliberate establishment of contrasting narratives in a 2-pronged strategy was perfected in America by Arthur Finkelstein in the mid-20th century and is becoming an art form today.
If you can see FOX as a "right wing propaganda machine" but can't see the other MSM networks as being equally polarizing machines aimed at a different half of the audience, you're missing the shot.
The solution is to see the false dichotomy for what it is, look at who is pushing it, and look at what direction both "sides" actually push for. If you're on the right, they want you to have your attention and energy soaked up in this useless Stop the Steal push for Trump, who actually didn't accomplish any of the things his populist base asked for (immigration control, really bringing back American jobs, giving a shit about the working class). If you're on the Left, they want to soak you up with Biden instead of the more progressive policies that someone like Bernie or Tulsi Gabbard espoused. Either way, you're being played if you allow your energy to go toward supporting one of these useless figureheads instead of critiquing the system itself.
FOX was created explicitly by Ailes and Murdoch to prevent a second Nixon style teardown of the GOP. It's the reason Disney wanted absolutely nothing to do with the news arm when it acquired the rest of the Fox media empire - it's a capitalist enterprise only in the sense that it's profitable as a side effect of their main goal.
You mean the meme-graph one? Don't think so. Every time I take a quiz based on that it lands me near the center, yet I don't resonate with any self-proclaimed centrist I've talked to.
> FOX was created explicitly by Ailes and Murdoch to prevent a second Nixon style teardown of the GOP.
I don't think the intent decades ago particularly matters compared with their actions presently, which are as aimed (at the level of the individual Fox employee) towards revenue and clicks as anyone - just going after a different market niche than MSNBC et al. The ownership is going after propaganda and narrative control, of course; the whole point of what I am saying is that both sides are doing that.
> it's a capitalist enterprise only in the sense that it's profitable as a side effect of their main goal.
The fact that you can't see that that's true of the other side of the media is very telling. WaPo and friends lose money every year, but will never, ever be shut down. What could the reason for that be, other than to use it as a propaganda mouthpiece?
Honestly. If you can turn on an MSM network right now and not hear the propaganda baked into every sentence, you need to turn off all media, read some old books, disconnect for a few months, and come back when you have a perspective wide enough to realize that both sides are being harmed, and having their animosity aimed at one another, rather than at anyone who is actually doing the harm.
(This may be easier for me to see as a non-American, of course. I shouldn't blame someone who has been soaking in yank propaganda their whole lives for having difficulty taking off the blinders.)
What changes which he implemented do you feel where behind these improvements?
If I posited the idea that he was simply riding a wave of positive economic progress established under the Obama administration, how would you counter that?
2. Imports from less-regulated low-cost places like China were impacted by tariffs, favoring American workers. Retaliatory tariffs were largely unsuccessful.
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-une...
Wage growth is more complex. However, this too doesn't seem to be immediately correlated with Trump's policies.
> During Obama’s last four years in office the average weekly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers went up 4.9%
I'd furthermore question that anyone is very good at accurately assigning proximate causes for people doing what people do, but the more economically minded tend to get upset when you do that as they're rather fond of their equations.
This was pretty intriguing to me, because I do believe Fox had a lot to do with the radicalization of their side of things. It drove their support, and the moment they backed off from the crazy train, people abandoned them in droves for whatever agreed with the direction they were heading, be it Newsmax or OAN. Fox brought on it's own downfall here.
Just my two cents. Hope your having a good day.
Honestly, I think it's only people to blame. No media would restrict you from just going to your neighbour who's having opposite values and views, and simply talk and try and understand.
People voluntarily selected extreme toxic partisanship, media just feeding the hungry ones. Even half of this thread could be reduced to "these other people are just dumb their values are wrong that's the problem"
As a European I find the images from Georgia's vote counting absolutely astonishing.
What images?
I could not believe my eyes when I read up to how the US voting system works. No IDs etc ... and recommencing counting after observers are sent home like in Atlanta. I mean it seems like a willy nilly "whatever" system.
Despite claims of massive voter/election fraud and massive incentive to find it, no credible law enforcement or media agency has been able to prove it at a scale that matters. Maybe a couple hundred fraudulent votes have been proven across the country.
There is just no credible evidence
This is what blaming the algorithm gets us. It's well past time to start shutting down platforms with algorithmic content systems.
There's nothing inherently wrong with automating content discovery; it's the cost function being optimized that I think we would almost all take issue with.
Or rather, they knew the answer, but knew that it was the best way to maximize engagement and thus profit.
A cop sees a guy crawling around under a streetlight and asks him, "Sir, what are you doing?"
The man replies, "Well, officer, I dropped my car keys and I'm trying to find them."
The policeman offers to help, and they search fruitlessly for ten minutes.
Finally, the officer says, "Are you sure this is where you dropped them?"
"Oh, no, it's not. I dropped them way over there in the parking lot."
Dumbfounded, the cop says, "WHY are you looking over HERE?"
"Well, the light is better over here."Tech companies should be able to explain and demonstrate the logic their systems use. These algorithms should probably be public. And any system which cannot be transparently explained should be shut down.
But what would even count as an explanation, and what does a "public" algorithm reveal?
There is no line of code that says "if (video.content == extreme) { show_to(EVERYONE) }".
A lot of the dangers are possible from a simple algorithm which merely performs A/B testing on whether a certain (randomly chosen, at first) video increases the amount of time a user spends on a site.
You could pass a law against A/B testing, or require companies to provide deliberately bad suggestions to make their users frustrated, but I'm not sure if that is a proportionate legislative response.
That sort of gets to the heart of it - saying "it's impossible to explain my algorithm because it is so complicated" no longer cuts it. It's the same as if I said to the FDA "This drug works in our testing for the indicated purpose but we have no idea if there are side effects" they aren't go to say "well, OK then, you can sell it". They'll say "come back when you have tested for all possible side effects and you can precisly define its behavior"
Currently Facebook, Google et al, will measure a narrow set of metrics to define the success of their algorithms (primarily relating to $$$) and then declare victory based on empirical optimisation of those metrics. They have to show that not only does the algorithm work for its stated purpose, it doesn't have undesirable side effects. They could do massive testing to demonstrate a huge range of side effects are not present. That would be similar to and probably as expensive as drug development. But an easier way to do that is to transparently explain what the algorithms do so that side effects can be predicted. If that is actually impossible for a given algorithm - well, maybe that algorithm shouldn't be used on the public at all.
Let me give you an example of a good system: Spam filters not operated by Google. Algorithms decide whether or not mail gets through my corporate mail filter. It determines it based on a score, which is tallied from a set of rules. And you can drill down and see the score a spam email received, and then you can see the rules and factors that created that score. As a user, you can even generally see this, because the results are included in the message's headers in your inbox. And if you're the admin, you can then adjust those rules to fix errant behavior.
That's how a recommendation system should work. A system which can't be analyzed in that matter should not exist, and the rules and scoring applied to such systems should be disclosed in some sort of header.
You believe it causes no harm, but that doesn't make for a good assumption, considering image recognition NNs have been repeatedly demonstrated to be racist. So you may find it's classification of dogs might work really well, but it might label other people's coworkers or family members as dogs.
Which is my main point, why should this apply to all tech when in some cases unexplainable mistakes are fine?
That's a valid argument for not using Gmail, but that in the case of Youtube, almost everyone wants a single place where they can watch all the user-generated videos.
I have my doubts this is true, so much as people are used to the relatively common controls/experience that comes with clicking a YouTube link. If I gave you a link to ocdtrekkietube.com/s8fsj2 (not a real link), and it worked as well as YouTube, I'm not sure any user would be particularly upset about it.
The biggest reason YouTube is as powerful as it is is that video hosting is expensive and few companies can eat that kind of bandwidth and storage without being an ad giant.
Then it should be illegal to use on consumer websites. It's that simple.
> If you want explainability it's going to require giving up a lot of innovation that could help people.
Four people died in the US Capitol because of this "innovation". It's time to stop pretending technology doesn't cause more harm than good in these cases.
The nuclear bomb is exactly why we need to block "innovation" that causes more harm than good.
The question is, how do you know something is bad before developing it? You oftentimes can't put the genie back in the bottle.
Also there MUST be some randomization or more generalized content introduced. And I'm not talking Trending Now or Hit Songs That Just Came Out. I'm looking at you, YouTube and Facebook. Sometimes I actually want new stuff and it keeps dragging me back into a virtual rabbit hole.
- There's no simple decision tree, but an ML model with countless knobs that are mostly implicit. Not worth the money to make an UI to tweak it.
- The puprose of these platforms is to maximize your exposure to ads. Nothing more. Anything that detracts from it is a no-go.
(This might be the very point you are making, rhetorically?)
[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_convergence#Paper...
In capitalism anyone who opposes the corporation is disappeared.
You end up needing a mix of both. An independent news media with an explicit obligation to the truth, one that they can get in trouble for violating. We had that obligation for a long time through the middle of the 20th century. News organizations were well regarded even if they didn't always make the right calls they tried their best.
But then Rhupert Murdock realized that you could simply pretend to be one of those respected parties and lie to the viewers constantly and there would be no consequences. The obligation to the truth turned out to be a gentleman's agreement and there were no truth police breaking down your door when you told lies. That's when we discovered that the media is like the Prisoner's Dilemma. Fox news discovered that as long as everybody else was beholden to the facts they could lie repeatedly and constantly win the game. They've only fallen from the very tippy top of the ratings in recent years as other news organizations like OAN have discovered that the bigger the lie the bigger the ratings.
Fast forward to today and respect for the independent media (the all important 4th branch of government) is at an all time low and we have completely indoctrinated delusional people storming the Capitol building.
I am not a fan of the specifics of the fairness doctrine, but I believe the current state in which media companies can freely and knowingly lie as long as they don't stray too far into defamation is not tenable.
If you study political philosophy (e.g. Plato, Hobbes, Locke etc..) and read stuff like Orwell's Animal Farm, I think it becomes pretty evident that it ultimately won't matter how you structure society, whether that's a mix (of communism/capitalism), or having all of one or the other. Just using a simple thought experiment, you can show that the sheer existence of two or more people, can potentially give rise to situations where inequality becomes inevitable. In which case, leads to Hobbes's arguments about the state of nature.
Everyone’s Youtube subscriptions are an echo chamber of views they mostly agree with because people only click subscribe on such channels.
A recommendation engine working perfectly is going to show you lateral channels that might be more or less extreme of the last one. But that’s not the root of the problem.
My (logged out) YouTube feed has mostly cooking shows, programming videos, stuff about crafts and watchmaking etc, because those are mostly what I like to watch.
I’m also interested in guns. The moment I watch a gun video, I immediately get shown Ben Shapiro, Jordan Peterson, and The Blaze instead of all the cooking videos etc.
And yet none of the gun videos I watch are remotely political. They are exclusively about sports and history, and don’t even talk about gun politics, let alone politics in general.
I never see (amateur) political talking heads recommended. It's all trash pop-history talking heads, semi-trash documentaries and low brow entertainment related to cars and guns (e.g. demo ranch and whistlin diesel).
I recently (like yesterday) watched a semi-political talking head discuss the economics of OnlyFans after a friend linked to that particular person's analysis so it'll be interesting to see if the algo tries to drag my content toward more talking heads.
E.g. if you live in a generally pro-gun area I think they be algorithm would probably be less likely to assume that it’s worth showing you political content.
I know recommendations are based on many factors that differ between us (such as location), but I can't reproduce that behavior. If I watch hickok45 or Paul Harrell in an incognito window, I get recommendations for more of their videos along with a few from Demolition Ranch, Forgotten Weapons, and other gun channels. I see no political videos in the recommendations.
I’m using AppleTV, but not logged in. It’s possible that it takes some time for that to happen.
Also, I watched a Jerry Miculek Video yesterday, and got no political stuff, so it’s also possible that the algorithm has been improved or they have specifically acted to break this association.
Sure, but to assume that you _probably_ hold conservative beliefs due to having an interest in guns is way more often the case than not. Same is true in an opposite way if you watched some video on abortion rights.
Only in the crudest statistical sense. For example the fastest growing demographic of gun owners is black women, who are overwhelmingly Democratic voters.
And that’s exactly what the complaint about these algorithms is.
I’m simply pointing out that the algorithms do in fact steer people towards polarizing content, that is not what they would have otherwise chosen.
You may simply be that % of the false positive/false negative that is a cost of doing business.
I mean - the alternative to this is having Google employ all the out of work journalists and editors and manually curate lists for people. I think the cost of losing a few people is vastly lower than hiring that many people, in each culture and country around the world.
It's fairly easy to see how this can lead people who did not already hold those viewpoints down a rabbit hole where they end up far more radicalised than they would have otherwise been, especially since I've not once seen Youtube put any sort of "rebuttal" videos in amongst the "illuminati aliens are controlling your government" ones.
What I want to know about is more coherent explanations of abstract math and some scientific experiments which I never got to see in school, in addition to comedy. That I watch something else once in a while is not really an indication of my identity or my Jungian shadow self.
If a large percentage of people who watch gun blowing up videos also are interested in the videos you mention than why wouldn't they show it (I assume if it were breaking guidelines it would be removed)
The homepage ones should show you subscriptions videos but also based on the last keywords/videos watched.
I don't see the value in using 2012-2019 videos watched when your recent ones speak more to what you currently are interested in.
IMO autoplay for anything but music is one of the worst decisions ever made on online streaming services.
Kind of reminds me how repeatedly clicking the first link on Wikipedia articles inevitably leads to the article about Philosophy, but diverging instead of converging.
This is an interesting random walk experiment :)
You were offered the recommendations, but you declined. It's still a matter of self-selection and self-exposure. How many recommendations would it take to turn you into a white supremacist? How many video viewings? If your answer is that no amount would, then the algorithms don't seem to be the real problem.
My mother is a PhD. I asked her whether she will accept a paper without sound academic bibliography. She said no. Then why would she believe in extremist videos with shady citations and outright lies? But she does. I think it is because of the recommendation engines which keep feeding similar videos. Just like Goebbels' maxim of repeating a lie often enough and loudly enough to make it the truth.
We can keep saying that our algorithms are fine. But if what we see today has never been seen in history, I think it is high time that we re-evaluate our current beliefs about the impact and the correctness of our work.
This is very common. I would even say the norm. No person is fully rational. Rather, people may think rationally about certain things — their "speciality", perhaps — but not about others. Everyone is irrational in some ways.
> But if what we see today has never been seen in history
Which part do you think is historically unprecedented? The technology of course is unprecedented, but I don't see anything about the beliefs of people today that's unprecedented.
Has existed for longer and I believe started this downhill trajectory, perhaps created the 'tinder' if you will.
They too do it for the engagement/ratings.
Rupert Murdoch's empire as a prime cause creating an alternate reality solely because it made his media the #1 most watched news network, print, etc.
They've even argued in court themselves that any 'normal' person wouldn't take their 'news' seriously. Take Tucker Carlson's early videos as another example of this gross negligence; he's an actor saying what gets views no matter his actual beliefs are.
And making that distinction helps highlight that there are factors in how information is shaped and transmitted through networks of people that results in these outcomes.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Fairness-Doctrine might be useful.
Fox broadcast stations having nightly news, like your local Fox affiliate news at 11 was and remains different.
Reagan himself was an FBI informant and was involved with blacklisting so-called Communists way back when he was President of the Screen Actors Guild, during the McCarthy era. So any story that says "It all started on such and such a date" is completely arbitrary.
You can talk about Barry Goldwater. The National Review. Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson. There was already a strong conservative movement growing that got Reagan elected in the first place. Not to mention the October surprise conspiracy theory of his 1980 election.
The 1960s, the Vietnam War, the civil rights era, these had a huge impact socially, started political realignments, and caused much internal turmoil in the United States.
The Gingrich "Republican Revolution" occurred in 1994. Hillary Clinton claimed there was a vast right-wing conspiracy in 1995. Government shutdowns. Impeachment. Oklahoma City bombing. All of this occurred before Fox News even went on the air.
Will anyone acknowledge that Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols were radicalized before Fox News existed, not to mention before Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube?
Spoken by someone who clearly has not read the Powell Memorandum. Reagan was just following the playbook. It's all right there, out in the open. It goes like clockwork because the real backer for both sides -- mega-corporatism -- wants it. The "culture war" conflicts are considered unimportant, as they have no effect at all on the substance.
Trump is the first on his side to step out of line. It will cost them, but maybe not much. The goal now will be to get people distracted again, so the real work of eliminating people's influence may proceed.
Also, issue is not polarization itself. Issue is that chunk of Americans wants to revert election.
As it turns out, truth is a thing beyond price - which is to say, it is worthless.
Truth is not worthless. Quite the contrary. Truth is expensive. But a fair chunk of the population subsisted on a rather limited news diet.
This naturally leads to the natural balance being two parties, which has to oppose each other to the extreme in all topics, which then diverges further and further creating the US today.
Different variants of multi member districts or proportional representation allows for the both the progressive left and far right which today feel left out to form their own groups. They can then get into congress and slowly let the steam out while likely enacting some change which all can accept.
A proportional voting system would both allow new parties to emerge and prevent extremist or divisive candidates from leading those parties. That in turn would give people more options and make them more likely to vote (and less likely to excuse bad actors within their own party).
I would be careful about directing the blame at "single member districts", though. In the US, the most popular type of reform seems to be Instant Run-off Voting, which has its flaws, but avoids the potential criticism that multi-member districts face, namely that a voter's elected representative may end up living much further away from them. (Personally I'd rather a representative who is closer to my political viewpoint than to my physical residence, but I think that much of the criticism for multi-member districts are in bad faith anyway, and thus not amenable to reasoned debate).
A prime example is the Australian parliament, where the lower chamber is essentially IRV while the upper chamber has some variation of multi member districts.
The lower chamber has 4.5% of the seats being outside the two major blocks, the senate has 18.5%. I.e., the people want more choice but the system does not allow for it.
IRV doesn't solve the problem of gerrymandering either.
I'm completely with you on the distance vs. political opinions. There is something extremely powerful in electing one, who has personally convinced you, from your town to go and represent us all, but the world doesn't operate on that scale anymore.
In any case, fortunately there are better options out there than IRV, even with the requirement that districts don't change size. One popular (and simple) option is Approval Voting, although it is slightly harder to count than plurality (at least by hand, since you need to separate ballots into potentially 2^n piles, for n candidates).
The alternative I'd recommend is Asset Voting, where the ballots, districts, and counting remain the same, but after the count is complete, the losing candidates (from least popular to most) get to reassign their votes to other candidates until one of them has over 50%.
There may be some clever game-theoretic argument that could be made about spherical voters in a vacuum, but I think that "political science" results are likely to depend too much on data with too small a sample size (for example, the set of countries that use Approval Voting for national elections).
I find the "How did we arrive to this point" question interesting, because for most of recorded history, the masses of humanity have not been so different than they are today. If anything, "enlightenment" is a relatively rare occurrence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C3%B3n_Gnarr
Comedian technically, but eh.
Well obviously that would be unelected “fact checkers” who aren’t held accountable for anything and suspiciously seem to find nearly everything said by people in one particular political party to be “pants on fire” lies.
You're right to point out the dangers of entrusting an unaccountable group with the responsibility of determining what is and isn't true, but I'm not sure that electing the fact checkers would improve their accuracy.
Also, if you think it is suspicious that people in one political party make statements that are deemed lies, your problem might not be with the checkers.
Come on, I could easily remove context and/or provide a misleading "authoritative" interpretation to basically anything a Democrat says in order to brand it a lie. How new are you to this game?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Neutral_point_of_vie...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Verifiability
I'm imagining the media could be structured upon some sort of protocol codified in law that would ensure those guidelines would be respected.
However the main thing that's necessary is probably instilling some sense of duty, honor and integrity in a large number of individuals. No idea how to go about that.
EDIT: in the USA the FCC actually had regulation with a similar intent in the near past: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FCC_fairness_doctrine
I've suggested to @dang that he tries implementing a kind of experimental discussion mode like that right here on HN, where for certain types of topics he could enable this mode and see what the effect would be on the human mind.
I don't know all the particulars of what changes should be included in such a mode (would be a good topic for a discussion), but the main one I would include is an additional guideline something along the lines of "Please exert some effort in restricting your statements to the discussion of reasonably conclusive true facts about physical reality."
This way, when people inevitably succumb to mistaking the virtual reality in their mind (where one has supernatural powers like omniscience, the ability to read minds at scale, predict the future with precise accuracy, completely understand infinitely complex indeterminate/chaotic systems, etc) for physical reality (where we do not have these powers), such comments could be flagged and reviewed a few days later (when cooler heads prevail) in a group Post Incident Review process of some sort (maybe a zoom meeting), where we could examine our behavior from a more metaphysical perspective, the goal being to increase awareness of the fact that inaccurate beliefs about reality are not something that only members of our personal outgroups suffer from, but rather something we all suffer from. It is simply a consequence of the same base software we all run in our minds.
Unfortunately, this idea seems to be rather unpopular (shocking!) - so, the beatings will continue until morale improves (or some variation of that), or until this never ending process comes to its natural conclusion. Mother Nature is a cruel mistress.
https://humorinamerica.wordpress.com/2014/05/19/the-morpholo...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MHExbJGIQs
https://youtu.be/smX2UtdJFq8 (not recommended for filthy casuals)
I don't think there's a way to system-design ourselves out of this situation.
> I don't think there's a way to system-design ourselves out of this situation.
I personally prefer to try and fail before declaring defeat. After all, how would one know if something isn't possible if no one ever tried it? If our ancestors had this attitude, we'd probably be doing something like having a pleasant ride in our horse and buggies rather than having pointless arguments with people we don't know who live half way around the world.
I don't believe all problems are unsolvable, but I've seen many systems fail because they do not take human nature into account.
Facebook and Twitter are probably the biggest such disasters I know about.
I realize your proposal's intent is to help people realize they have this problem.
I don't think it would do so very well.
I agree. But we've got them now, so what will we do about it?
> I don't believe all problems are unsolvable, but I've seen many systems fail because they do not take human nature into account.
Me too. Let's say we did this and it didn't work - would this leave us in a worse state than before (excluding the development time involved)?
> I realize your proposal's intent is to help people realize they have this problem. I don't think it would do so very well.
You may be right! But how would we find out for sure?
Hypothetically: if the idea went to a vote (to try such an experiment here on HN), would you vote for or against, and why?
I probably would just ignore it entirely, if it was experimental and opt-in.
If it was required, I would probably stop using HN.
Despite trying to be a careful systems thinker and programmer, at my heart of hearts I am a mystic and an artist.
I suspect those parts of my worldview would be largely dismissed as drivel by people who are confident they know the truth and ideas that diverge from theirs as mine do aren't worth considering.
A good way to see this is by looking at what news organisations call "fact checks". Almost always, these are simply repeating the claims of some random academics or government institutions, which are taken to be true by default. A lot of people really do assign a very high prior to "member of the establishment saying something makes it true", but a whole lot of other people do not. If the latter go and dig in and discover the underlying claim seems false, and start saying so, then the news orgs will claim it's "disinformation" and the others will say it's the "lying media" and yet nobody is literally making things up maliciously, even if a claim is objectively true or false.
I will try to explain...
> It's unpopular because it's naive.
You have no way of knowing whether this is naive.
> Nobody has the ability to prove everything to themselves and everyone else from first principles.
In no means whatsoever did I state this as a goal or requirement.
> Everyone takes shortcuts by repeating things they were told by others
Agreed. But my point is: people do not realize (in realtime) that they do this - and, this can have severe consequences.
> thus "lying" is occasionally the 5-year old type of lying where someone just makes something up on the spot and tries to avoid looking guilty, but these are not the meaningful or common types of lies.
I am not discussing lies (lying requires conscious intent) - I am discussing the mind's default inability to reliably distinguish between virtual reality and physical reality. This phenomenon can be observed in very high quantities on HN, but only in certain types of threads (culture war topics) - on other topics (computing, physics, etc), one will find very little flawed logic or assertions (relative to other social media sites).
Even if one doesn't think this is worth worrying about, it should at least be considered potentially interesting, considering the consequences of this phenomenon if it exists at scale. Take the climate change debate for example, or 'masks for covid' as a simpler scenario: what is the ACTUAL reason(s) our societies can't sort this shit out?
Should we care about such things, or should we not care? I'm getting very mixed messages on this from every social media site or organization I belong to. There seems to be general consensus that we should care (as a boolean) - but on the degree to which we should care, it seems like some people are opposed to caring too much (when it extends into thinking deeply and precisely, based on first principles (free of axioms and premises) and sound epistemology).
If you are debugging a complex system, would you use skills like precise observation, logic, and systems thinking, or would you just make a few wild guesses and throw up your hands in defeat when your guesses turn out to be ineffective?
> A good way to see this is by looking at what news organisations call "fact checks". Almost always, these are simply repeating the claims of some random academics or government institutions, which are taken to be true by default.
Agreed. This is an example of how 'that which is not true' in physical reality can become "true" in virtual reality.
> A lot of people really do assign a very high prior to "member of the establishment saying something makes it true", but a whole lot of other people do not.
Subconscious bayesian reasoning is often converted to binary when passed to the conscious (or so it seems).
> If the latter go and dig in and discover the underlying claim seems false, and start saying so, then the news orgs will claim it's "disinformation" and the others will say it's the "lying media" and yet nobody is literally making things up maliciously, even if a claim is objectively true or false.
Mostly agree, except for the "nobody is literally making things up maliciously" part - sometimes people actually do make things up with "malicious" intent.
That's not unique to any one political party. All political partisans are susceptible to propaganda, but only party-specific propaganda. There are different forms of propaganda on different sides that would never work on the other side.
However, if people are put in a situation where the only information they have access to—or the only information given an official sanction—is the propaganda, then whether or not it conflicts with their existing biases, they're pretty unlikely to be able to refute it. Especially not over a long period of time.
Also worth noting that saying people "do it to themselves" only applies to adults: the adults who are "doing it to themselves" are, in fact, doing exactly what I described above to their children: providing an "official sanction" to only the propaganda that agrees with their biases, thus ensuring that their children grow up molded in the same way, with no easy way to make an informed choice for themselves.
To an extent, yes. However, there are a number of mitigating factors. (1) Individual parents vary widely in their persuasive skill. (2) If there are 2 parents, those 2 don't necessarily agree in their beliefs, which means mixed messages for the children. (3) The child's friends, neighbors, schools, and community are also important influences on the child. (4) Genetics guarantees individual differences regardless. (5) Kids have a natural tendency to rebel against their parents, regardless of the parent's beliefs.
A lot of kids turn out a lot like their parents. And a lot of kids don't. Some even become the opposite of their parents. So the parental influence is definitely a factor, but it's not inescapable.
In any case, most kids pay very little attention to politics or "hard news" before they reach voting age (or even after). The news consumption itself tends to occur mainly in adulthood.
The propaganda that we are concerned with here deliberately seeks to trigger these childish responses in adults. If you go around telling people that they are entitled to something which these other people are taking from them, you will get some disciples regardless of whether there is any merit to the claim. It is like a mountainside in snow: you will get many small avalanches, but now and again a big one will let loose and sweep everything away.
"Free market" does not just mean "everyone (with enough money) gets to provide whatever they want, and call it whatever they want, and it's up to ordinary people to figure out what's reliable and what's not."
(Bad as in quality, not as in pessimistic. Bad meaning emotional and inciteful rather than informative and constructive. Humans have proven they respond more to the former.)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/karlynborysenko/2020/03/31/grea...
But how many women are afforded the opportunities to attain the job and life experience it takes to make as much as a man at the same job?
Once again -- stop thinking equality and start thinking equity.
If you are alluding to family constraints, having a family is a choice. I'm a man with a family and I have seen many opportunities disappear as a result of my decision to have a family.
Women simply do not have the same opportunities that men do in this country.
Where are these "genuine journalistic organizations" defined except in our own minds?
There is no journalist licence. There is no license to publish. You have a printer, and someone to buy what you print out? Congratulations! You're a journalist! In the U.S. anyway.
Intent, in that the organization, and the people making it up, genuinely seek to find truth and publish it, rather than seeking to push one agenda or another regardless of the facts.
And capability, in that they can, in fact, do the research and possibly fieldwork necessary to get truths that are interesting enough to be worth publishing, as opposed to just reposting stories someone else researched, whatever their truth value.
Having the intent described above but not the capability makes you something of an aggregator. Having neither capability nor intent makes you, more or less, a partisan blogger.
Having the capability to be journalistic but the intent to push an agenda regardless of the truth makes you an incredibly dangerous propaganda outfit.
I'm incredibly leery assigning a particular set of qualities to the essential journalist, even if by and large I do agree with the criteria you state.
A lot of the effects of religion have been mostly positive, but in its core it's based on misinformation.
And to top it off, his story ends with him rising from the dead!8-))
debate the authenticity all you want, but what exactly do you think the new testament is?
Personally, I don’t really think it matters much either way (the events of a few decades being much less influential than the following two millennia of activities by people who did believe he existed), so I default to taking the word of people who’ve actually studied the matter in depth; but as he was one of several Roman-era Messiah claimants wandering around (we know of at least two others, and there were probably more whose names never made it into the histories we have) it seems reasonable that the group which happened to catch on would have also originally coalesced around an actual person.
So it is generally accepted he existed, even if the criteria used to judge other historical characters is loosened for JC.
Edit - but please try to not say things like "ignorant" or "disabused" unless you meant to attack OP. Those are pretty loaded words for a collegial discussion.
In contrast Pontius Pilate is historical - there are extant documents with his name and title.
Simply b/c Pontius Pilate was real doesn't mean Jesus Christ was real. And it certainly doesn't mean he rose from the dead!
Two mentions. One is almost certainly fabricated, or at least heavily rewritten by later Christians.
> For eyewitness, you can find first person account in the New Testaments.
The Gospels aren't first person accounts. The closest you get to first person accounts of Jesus in the NT are brief mentions of Paul's conversion experiences in his epistles. The Gospels probably draw on first person accounts to some extent, but they themselves aren't first person accounts.
There's a very strong case to be made for the historicity of Jesus, but you make a misleading one by leaving out some very important context regarding Josephus and mischaracterizing the accounts of Jesus in the NT.
If I told you the story of our lord and savior Sauron, could you prove to me it's not true? Could you prove to me any of the Lord of the Rings didn't happen?
We don't generally require proving a negative.
I argued that that claim is wrong.
Someone responded saying, "find one true account that religion is based on". I responded asking whether they could find an account that is proven false.
The context here is important--I'm not arguing my belief in religion, or that you must believe in religion. I'm arguing that not all religion is based on misinformation. I brought up my question to point out that his question is irrelevant, and he can't prove anything to be false, therefore he can't prove that it's all misinformation.
If I see a bird fly over my head, then claim to you, "a bird flew over my head", I can't prove it. Neither can you disprove it. That doesn't mean it didn't happen, or that my claim isn't real, or that my claim is misinformation.
~2000 years ago people witnessed Christ die and some claim they saw Him come back to life. They wrote about it. Those letters still exist today. I agree that this information alone is not enough to justify someone changing their life to believe the letters--merely existing doesn't "prove" that what's in them is true. But pretend for a second it really did happen. What evidence/proof do you think you'd find that could prove it?
This is honestly getting watered down a lot though, with people jumping in without reading everything. I don't blame them--I do the same on HN.
If someone wishes to discuss why I personally believe, and what I believe in, that's a different thing altogether that I'm happy to discuss but not here on HN.
Everything is misinformation until proven otherwise.
The bigger and grander the claim, the higher the burden of proof. With a bird, the claim ain't exactly grand, and I'm willing to take you at your word. On the other hand if you told me a bird flew over your head, turned into a plane and wrote "I'm Your Lord and Savior" in skywriting, well, I'm gonna need more than just your word on it.
Given that religion contradicts what we know about the physical world, and that its existence is explained without reliance on the supernatural, it's not logical to believe its supernatural claims.
No one claims that someone is resurrected every day. The claims of Christianity are that it occurred once, and that it was a miracle.
The thought that it's impossible for something to have occurred unless it's commonly overserved isn't sound. There is no such requirement. There are plenty of rare events that occur, with and without scientific explanation.
Update: Perhaps here's what we're missing. There is information, misinformation, and then there's claims that cannot be proven or disproved. I do not believe that all things are false until proven true. I believe that Christianity, and many other religions, can be neither proven or disproven using modern science. It is neither misinformation or information. It is a belief.
Where we disagree is that you think that a 2000 year old text that's been translated 7 or 8 times and by what we would consider today to be idiots (human IQ has increased dramatically over time, in 1910 alone the IQ midpoint would be today's 70, which is a full standard deviation lower) - should be given the benefit of the doubt and be granted a reverse burden of proof. Idiots mind you who would have you burned at the stake for the laptop you're replying on.
The scriptures should be approached analytically with modern techniques. Does anything in there line up with observable reality? No. Is there a plausible explanation? No. Ergo, we should assume its false unless we discover some evidence that it might be true.
The challenge with doing that is religions rely on indoctrinating the youth before they're capable of making rational evaluations and play to our evolutionary weaknesses (the need for an explanation).
> There are plenty of rare events that occur, with and without scientific explanation.
Indeed but I'm not going to recommend telling a 4 year old I've just dunked under water about them based on a book written by an idiot 2000 years ago.
> It is neither misinformation or information. It is a belief.
It's a myth. Myths are fine, but shouldn't be presented as fact. And they certainly shouldn't be true until proven false.
By this token, until you prove otherwise, the whole world was started on a giant turtle. [1]
[1] https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/turtle-isl....
I agree there are many strangeties that are in the Bible that don't seem to be plausible, and we should not accept them as fact, due to the nature of translating ancient texts and the corrupting influences of government and religions. You are right that certain stories shouldn't just be believed or accepted without evidence. But you are wrong to say that there is nothing in the scriptures that lines up with observable reality.
The Bible contains many many stories about Human behavior and emotions. Mob violence, rape, drunkeness, greed, corruption, and contain many good lessons on understanding these behaviors in order to overcome them. These are behaviors we observe in our everyday lives.
There are great teachings in the Bible if that is what you are looking for. If you look in the Bible to try and find every falsehood or inconsistency you will never actual find anything of value to your life.
"It is the glory of God to conceal a matter, But the glory of kings is to search out a matter." - Proverbs 25:2
Nothing to do with trig, it's based on IQ assessments. [1] Human intelligence has increased dramatically as a function of nutrition, as a function of living in cities, as a function of education and so on. It's even happening to raccoons who live in cities. [2]
It's not their fault, but compared to modern humans, they were big dummies.
> There are great teachings in the Bible if that is what you are looking for. If you look in the Bible to try and find every falsehood or inconsistency you will never actual find anything of value to your life.
Yeah, it's a modern Aesop's Fables. It's a bunch of stories, some made up, some collected from experience, which are used to provide guidance to living your life.
[1] https://ourworldindata.org/intelligence
[2] https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200416-how-city-life-ca...
What matters is do you today believe heaven and hell are real, and will you go to either one when you die? Will you be judged by some know-it-all entity, and what rules does (s)he judge you by? Do you need to follow the roman, greek, egyptian, viking, moslim, christian, catholic, protestant, ..., rules to go to heaven? And if you follow the christian rules, and god turns out to be allah, will you go to hell?
There are some interesting arguments that we evolved to become hard-wired for religion. Fear during early evolution was probably the driver for this, all the earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, death by germs etc. We invented religion as a means to explain stuff - the solar cycle, disease, etc, etc. Turns out those explanations were wrong, but our biology is still the same ..
Go ahead and read any religious text (I've read many!). Nearly every culture has one or many myths. Do you believe them to be fact? Or do you only believe your religious text to be true? And if so, why?
I don't mean to take a stance against religion in general. I agree with the above commenter that the impact of religion in a general sense does seem to be positive! A shared mythos can be a very powerful way of building community. This can have very real positive affects on a population, and, depending on that mythos, on an individual. But to suggest that religion doesn't require "faith" (i.e. believing in something despite no evidence) is... well... naïve.
I've gone through other forks on this thread. Here's my conclusion. No religion that I'm aware of can be proven or disproved based on scientific fact or observation. Yet that does not mean they are all false or true. One could very well be true. Or they could be false. But simply because we can't prove it doesn't mean it must be false. You cannot claim "misinformation" without proving its false. I cannot (and am not) claiming it "information" without proven it true. Its neither.
There is a different question to ask, which is how and why people choose to believe in religion provided that they cannot be proven. I have my reasons, my personal evidences, that have led me to believe my religion is true. I also believe that you can learn for yourself whether or not my religion is true. If you wish to learn more about my experience and what has led me to believe, I'll share it in a venue that encourages respect and understanding. Unfortunately online forums rarely provide that.
There are many myths from many cultures that seek describe where we came from or how we ought to live. For example, nearly every culture has some story about the creation of man/the earth. They all cannot possibly be true. I'm sure we can agree that man/the earth wasn't created as many times as there are stories about it.
So you are making claims about truth! How can you square the above with your belief in your own religion using the thought paradigm you outlined above? By claiming that your creation story is true (or as you may put it, "not proven false") you are also making a claim that all others are not true. A claim you have just argued cannot be made... It's all a fallacy.
The most interesting question worth answering is: Why do you believe the myths that you do?
Statistically speaking, the answer is because it is the one your parents believed. It's hard to explain away the eerie correlation between a person's religion and where they were born. Why is it that a child born in the Middle-East is so likely to follow Islam, a child in the West Christianity, in India Hindu, etc. etc.? It's almost as if these religions are a product of the people, not some greater truth.
And for what it's worth, I see no meaningful difference between something that is false and something that cannot be proven to be true:
"There are 2,145,124,152 birds in flight above the earth right now." - do you believe me?
"Jesus Christ just came down and told me personally that Hindu is the one true religion" - do you believe me?
"I just saw a red 2018 Toyota 4Runner drive past my house" - do you believe me?
"One of the above claims it true" - do you believe me?
What role does "faith" play when appraising the above questions? Are you applying "faith" in the same way to the above as you do to your religion? Probably not.
My arguments on this thread have been about the claim that all religion is based on "misinformation". I feel a bit like a broken record here, but in order for something to be misinformation it must be proven false. Claims can either be proven true, proven false, or simply not proven true or false. There are 3 states--not 2. Religions fall into the last category, where the claims have not been proven or disproved. It's not misinformation until it's proven false. It's also not information until it's proven true. Which gets back to the key differences between faith and scientific fact. Faith is belief in something not (yet) proven true or false. Belief in science is based on something science has proven true or false. You're trying to take the way you approach science, likely because it's what you've been surrounded by in your recent life, and force it upon religious views. It doesn't work, because the basis for faith in a religion implies that the thing isn't proven using science.
> Statistically speaking, the answer is because it is the one your parents believed. It's hard to explain away the eerie correlation between a person's religion and where they were born. Why is it that a child born in the Middle-East is so likely to follow Islam, a child in the West Christianity, in India Hindu, etc. etc.? It's almost as if these religions are a product of the people, not some greater truth.
What environment have you been raised in? Western world, analytically educated? Atheism is a religion. It's the belief that there is no higher power--but it's still a belief... based on faith (not science). Science has neither proven or disproved the existence of God. Agnostic is also a religion based on faith. Whatever your actual beliefs or lack of beliefs are, it's not based on scientific fact.
The word "myth" implies the account is proven false (through science). It's not accurate to use, unless you're able to prove the religious accounts false.
I'm not asking you to believe me. I'm not asking you to believe in my religion. I'm simply stating that claiming all religions are based on misinformation cannot be done until they're all proven false.
You've made great leaps about why I believe without understanding me, my faith, or the process I went through (and continue going through) to obtain and keep my faith. You can make as many assumptions as you want, but they haven't been accurate and likely won't be if you continue to do so.
> What role does "faith" play when appraising the above questions? Are you applying "faith" in the same way to the above as you do to your religion? Probably not.
I do not have faith in any of the claims you've made, no matter how reasonable. I'm not arguing that any one of them is true or false.
> The most interesting question worth answering is: Why do you believe the myths that you do?
I agree, this is the more interesting question. But it's not something I wish to discuss on a public forum. It's deeply personal. If you are genuinely interested, I'd happily share it in a different venue.
With the above inconsistency in mind we can explore what it means to "prove something false":
https://www.quora.com/What-does-it-mean-to-prove-something-f...
The top answer here summarize the current state of our understanding. The key terms on which to focus are "inconsistent" and "contradiction". Can you see how believing in something that cannot be rationalized is inconsistent or a contradiction? It is the belief in a religion itself that is the contradiction. It doesn't matter whether any specific event can be proved true or false (again that is not my point). My point is that "having faith" is to recognize this contradiction and choose to believe anyway. By simply "having faith" you are, yourself, proving it false.
That isn't to say having faith is a bad thing! I will again commend organized religion as a valuable tool to both the individual and society. People are not rational. Feelings are not rational. I genuinely believe that the good that comes from religion outweighs the bad. That doesn't mean I can't recognize it for what it is...
And I am not an atheist! I guess it depends what you mean be "God" though... I don't believe in any region as an ideology, but I do believe in religion as an institution (I do go to church on occasion): Was there a person name Jesus? Probably. Did he inspire good things? Mostly likely. Are the lessons we learn from his story valuable? Absolutely! Did he turn water into wine? No. Did he rise from the dead? Of course not.
In this way I believe in religion, but I don't "have faith".
[0] The word "myth" does not always denote something that is false.
> You are arguing that religious myths[0] cannot be claimed to be true or false
I'd correct this to say "You are arguing that religious myths[0] cannot be claimed to be true or false [using science]"
> It means to hold a belief that cannot be rationalized.
I think you're ignoring the possibility for people to believe things for reasons other than science. If I have a spiritual experience that leads me to believe something is true, I have reason to believe, yet I cannot prove it to others. Does that make it rational? I think it could be argued that it is, especially for the person who had the experience.
I'm okay with "myth" being used then.
Thank you for the respect you've demonstrated. I value discussions like this.
This discussion started as an exploration of the claim that [all] religion is based on misinformation. And I can see, upon reading that word, how someone could interpret "misinformation" to connote a negativity towards religion. I personally do not see it that way, rather, as an accurate and objective description of the phenomenon. This is because believing in religion requires faith, and to "have faith" means [look at discussion above].
In other words religion is a paradigm based on information that cannot be proved true (not just that it hasn't been proved true). I would classify the above as misinformation -- information that cannot be believed (i.e. rationalized). Choosing to believe anyway is each individual's prerogative, but I don't think it changes how we should talk about it.
I don't mean this as a critique to living a life of faith. Though I personally cannot "have faith" (I cannot believe a person walked on water), it doesn't mean I don't believe in God or the values that many religions profess. It just means that "God" means something different to me. It probably means something different to everyone. As you say, "It's personal".
It is impossible to believe in the teachings of the Bible without having faith. I'm sure you bring an equal amount of faith when reading other stories. You don't? Why not?
I suspect this is the same article: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/revenge-of-...
Sure, some people (especially historically) have treated it like a tool, but that is not religion's fault (religion can't be at fault because it lacks agency). Those people would have seized upon whatever cultural phenomenon that was available to their own political purposes.
It absolutely was designed. Thoughtfully and explicitly.
You might find it interesting to learn about how the new testament was assembled. Many books did not make it into the final version of the new testament, left on the cutting room floor of history. The Gospel of Pseudo-Matthew for instance has a teenage Jesus fighting dragons. Check out the New Testament Apocrypha. [1]
Any scholar of the NT knows that the apochrypha date very late and the cannon is the legitimately oldest extant texts. There is no evidence that earlier texts were excluded. You do know (you probably don't) that the majority of the Pauline epistles are considered to be authentic, by secular atheist scholars, and date to to the middle of the first century right?
Outside of the pauline works, Hebrews is dated to no later than about 45 AD by secular, non believing scholars.
You're advacing a rather tired late 19th century view that just doesn't wash in the light of modern scholarship but was the darling of many 1800s and early 1900s lutherans.
The point I'm making is that the new testament was curated and texts were picked and chosen to advance the interests of those picking and choosing.
Ancient Jews saw the scriptures as possessing different levels of “cannonicity” - the Books of Moses were “very cannon” while books like Maccabees were “new fangled.”
Christians adopted that view as well. The fights over the Old Testament are still ongoing with different religions organically accepting or rejecting other books every now and then.
The logic behind these still ongoing arguments has much to do with traditions, and little with the actual content.
If we were to reevaluate the Old Testament with fresh eyes, I don’t think anyone would include Ecclesiastes or Job. Too depressing and bizarre.
Not even clear what’s going on or when it’s taking place.
But ultimately there’s a certain logic to these debates - and “we’re designing a religion” isn’t part of it.
Edit: Here’s an excellent example of how “non-designed” the Old Testament is: https://orthodoxwiki.org/Old_Testament_Canon
"Canon" is what's considered truth in a mythos (also a musical form and an electronics company).
"Cannon" is a type of gun.
Throughout history societies have used religion as a way to do this. Every society usually had one official religion that was used in this way: ancient egyptians, ancient greece, roman empire (first a religion copied from greece, later replaced by christianity, where the center of christianity was actually moved to rome), european kingsdoms with different versions of their official christian religions, and other countries throughout the world.
It's a pretty simple mechanism: follow our rules, god sees everything, if you don't follow the rules you will be punished, i.e., go to hell, if you follow the rules you will be rewarded, i.e., go to heaven.
We do the same thing with children in the hope that they'll listen to their parents: if you are a good boy/girl you get presents from sinterklaas (santaclause), if you are bad you will be be punished. Dutch santaclaus will take the bad children to spain, which is our version of hell ;-)
Funny thing is that children around the age of 8 will be smart enough to understand that they've been lied to and that santaclaus doesn't exist, whereas with religion some adults never get to this point of enlightenment.
This claim only holds water because -- in theory -- there is no precise definition of what "religion" is. In practice, it's a set of rules and rituals to follow (literal manipulation) on penalty of an unprovable/unfalsifiable entity or system punishing you (misinformation).
So, okay, "generally speaking" it's not about that. Now show me that the majority of religions don't boil down to manipulation and misinformation.
CNN, NYT, Washington Post, HuffPost, Vox, Fox News turned into extremely biased sources of disinformation and blatant propaganda.
E.g. a fabricated story in The Atlantic magazine, citing anonymous sources, was repeated and amplified by all these major media hubs and then further by social media for weeks. It's like a giant wave after wave of misinformation and rumors presented as facts. The burden of evidence apparently no longer applies.
The bias is mostly on the left wing of political spectrum, but the right wing are not too far behind.
OANN/Newsmax delenda est
One could certainly argue that a system where leaders have a direct platform to address the people is more democratic than one that relies on media gatekeepers, but it does have its downsides.
Older Trump fans are mostly getting their info through FB now. Look at FB's top shared pages/posts. The younger ones are on spread out on FB, reddit, reddit clones.
-for most of his presidency, Fox News has echoed President Trump's viewpoint
-therefore for most of that period I'm not confident that his Twitter access has made a huge difference to outcomes (although a number of his comments have certainly been notable).
-recently though, Fox has not been entirely on board with Trump's claims that the election was rigged. They haven't denounced them as strongly as other media, but they haven't wholly endorsed them either.
-So in recent weeks, it appears to be that Trump's direct channel to his supporters via Twitter was instrumental in leading to the current situation.
It appears the majority disagree with me, but I'm not clear where.
https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm/segments/living-und...
What a tired old marxist line this is; And one never applied to say, the political theory of marx himself
Religion is no more misinformation than a particular Philosophy is misinformation; a perspective on reality. Even the meta-philosophical act (philosophy of philosophy) of having an ontology of philosophy or any form of abstraction/reification, is an organized form of how one views the world.
The US yo me now seems to have become close to the comedy movie Idiocracy. You know in the 80s and 90s everyone looked up to the US so much. It was where everyone dreamt of going. I dont know anyone who clings on to that idea now.
Part of what fascist politics does is get people to disassociate from reality, there is no truth, there is only opinions. You get them to sign on to this fantasy version of reality, and from then on their anchor isn’t the world around them — it’s the leader and his opinion.
Part of interview on Fascism with Jason Stanley Professor of Philosophy at Yale University.
People don't simply consume information and form ideas like a summary-generator. There's a strong component of imitation and rehearsal that is disrupted when the patterns of engagement with other people are drastically changed.
> nobody is tied down in a chair and forced to watch certain TV shows or listen to certain radio shows for hours, days, weeks, months at a time, to the exclusion of all else.
Doesn’t this behaviour sound familiar? To me it sounds like addiction. What has changed is not our capacity to become addicted but the willingness of some to exploit this weakness for money and/or power. From the internet outrage generators to the social media outrage amplifiers. The addictiveness of outrage is now fully weaponised by those who have fully succumbed to the addictiveness of power and money. No handbrakes. No filters. No conscience. Lots of self denial, self delusion, self-justification.
The collision of these two addictions will destroy us if not unwound.
EDIT: auto-correct correction.
A good education should produce a balanced and well rounded adult. I teach CS ages 14 to 18 and all teachers have pastoral care responsibilities. I teach much more than just the curriculum. Some lessons — tutorials — are dedicated to general education.
A highlight from last term was tackling the question “is being gay the same as being a paedophile?” It was asked earnestly and in context. It was my pleasure to answer, ask them more questions, and get them to think about consent and what is and isn’t ok for society to ban.
Add to that a pandemic lockdown championed by one side who can mostly sit safely behind a screen while the other side loses their livelyhood in small businesses.
Something had to give. I hope this will be the limit.
If you would like more of this, continue to ignore non-virtual reality.
Done. You tell me which is which.
Many organizations were fact checking and calling out the President, but they were part of the "lamestream media" and his supporters were explicitly told not to listen to or trust them.
I would like to question this a bit. If this were true, wouldn't this mean that China won this time since Biden is the President (vs Russia won in 2016 since Trump was the President)?
I think there are a lot more internal actors, such as special interest groups, PACs, activist groups, etc..., that may dwarf the external influence. There is so much money involved in politics and elections. I wonder how can we curtail the flow of money to make things more civil in politics?
Only if there was interaction between the Biden campaign and the Chinese state, which there was in the case of the Trump campaign
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Links_between_Trump_associates...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_interference_in_the_20...
It somehow reminds me of Weimar Germany, with two very fringe (sometimes militant) opposing groups radicalising the rest of the society -- or the rest just ignoring the whole mess and going about their lives.
The Nazis weren't the nice guys, but neither were their opposition, at least not the one referred to by the parent.
People seem to think the Nazi party showed up on the stairs of the parliament demanding genocide and war. In reality it was a 14 year progression of bad options, political turmoil and very hard choices to defend extremely weak coalitions. Were those choices good? Obviously not. Can we judge them after the fact? I would say no.
Maybe if the NSDAP had campaigned with "we want to gas all the Jews" they wouldn't have won so many votes, but nobody can say that NSDAP voters could have been ignorant of the general tendency. In fact, I think this kind of "we couldn't have known what would happen" is IMHO revisionism.
The truth is that, while everything about economic depression, the political instability of the system, the KPD and SPD being unable to cooperate, etc., were important factors, it remains true that a large segment of the German population were totally OK with ideas of German imperialism, revanchism and anti-semitism, otherwise Hitler's rise to power would never had happened.
The simplified story of the nazi rise to rule removes one of the most important lessons that can be learned from it: the watchfulness required to protect democracy.
We don't need to watch out for the big step because those will be easily.spotted anyway, but for the many, many small ones.
However, I'd love a deep historical perspective – it would be fascinating if there were parallels to be drawn. But, are there any?
In 1932, the KPD had 360k members, 5m+ votes, and 14-17% of the electorate. From 1928, the KPD was basically the Stalin party. They believed that the SPD (most analogous to modern-day "Democrats" in USA) were fascist, let alone the NSDAP.
There is no modern equivalent to the KPD in contemporary American politics. The most left-leaning elected officials in the Bundestag-equivalent would have been SPD members. The fringe militant people on the left in the USA do not have any political representation at the federal level, mostly because they do not exist in meaningful numbers, certainly not anywhere approaching 10-17%.
I think that 10-17% might exist on the right (it is probably closer to 5%), but especially after this year, it will become clear that the Republican Party (more analogous to the CDU, historically) is not their party.
If history is cyclical, Trump will form his equivalent of the DNVP shortly, which will not be radical enough for the people storming the Capitol today. This election and transfer of power might be the American Dolchstoß moment, in retrospect. I really hope we've learned.
No, that has nothing to do with it.
Take a look on wide base social polls across Western countries.
The seemingly "extreme" right turn in Europe at around the refugee crisis wasn't one unexpected if you count that.
It's just that huge social mass was very latent, and quiet as nobody wanted to be stigmatized as a nazi. Now, it isn't.
You cannot "deaf it out," and expect the problem to disappear.
Terrible social rifts can last centuries in silence. Example: Greek independence war was more than a century ago, and seemingly forgotten before it gave Ottomans the last blow, and then 50 years later, Turkey. And it seems it never really ended given what is going on in the Mediterranean now.
In the "peaceful" Western Europe, Schleswig war has ended 150 years ago, nations of Europe embraced in brotherly love, and the legacy of the conflict was ceremonially buried 10 times over, but people of Schleswig still tell of icy silence.
They do? I've spent time in both Kiel and Flensburg and I've seen no indication that anyone would prefer Danish rule. It seems a moot point today with the EU anyway.
My own impression is that this is far worse in the US than in most other first world countries. If I'm right about that, then explanations based on social media algorithms etc don't really work, because the same algorithms apply in other countries too. It really then needs a US-specific explanation.
Maybe, the US has just got too big and too diverse – I am talking here about political/ideological/worldview diversity, not ethnic/racial/etc diversity – to hold itself together in the long-run. Countries don't last forever, and the US isn't going to last forever either. Of course, it isn't breaking up this year, and I think other countries are likely to break up before the US does (such as the UK, Spain, Belgium, Canada). But maybe these current events are bringing that eventuality closer to us.
The US might be too big. I want to agree, but I know I’m biased by the media. I want to disagree, but I haven’t traveled to enough of the country to say it confidently.
But having visited 43 states in the past five years, and making it my business to talk politics and religion everywhere I have gone (especially in the aftermath of the 2016 election), I have repeatedly been surprised by the simple commonness of people's hopes: for peace, justice, security, prosperity.
Most people with whom I spend my time seem to think that Trump voters are all just like Trump. But I have not found that to be so whatsoever. I have repeatedly been surprised and sometimes even confused by the reasonableness and sophistication of Trump supporters, especially in the South.
And rage at America's institutions - including surely dreams of raiding the Capitol and wrecking havok - is surely not limited to one party of political view. It's not a tactic I favor, though I do certainly hope to see this silly building fade into the irrelevance of the failed state.
The incentives of social media algorithms are influential in the way we think about each other.
We are constantly shown Trump supporters who can't form a coherent and fact-based narrative. We're shown 'antifa' who seem to prefer roving destruction and mayhem rather than an equitable society.
But neither of these tropes reflect anything close to the reality of 2020 America. We are a society of peaceful, educated, hopeful people. Travel. Ask. You'll see.
we need more of this on-the-ground reasonableness to overtake the tribal bullshit we're all wading in up to our eyeballs. it's not simply the media (though they in general are complicit), or just politicians (also complicit), or social tech (super-cash-grabbing complicit), or "the people" (most aren't playing that game, but the 'influentials' certainly are). it's power, consolidating and exerting its will, to subjugate people by any means necessary.
Things were going bad enough as they were... then the pandemic hit and people turned to social media as their primary means for safe socialization. The breakdown of social discourse over the last year has been disheartening at best and horrifying at worst.
Probably not a bad idea to keep the peace.
Or more practically, greater freedom for the states, and less federal power.
I used to appreciate grid-lock in DC under the idea that the less they got done, the less they'd do to me. Now I recognize that the best outcomes are a) when the lawmakers reach across the aisle and forge what both sides would consider a compromise and more importantly b) when the lawmakers we elect actually enact laws and run the country in a way that benefits the people they represent.
I suspect that our best way forward as a nation is to resume carefully growing the middle class. This will by nature mean that the financial elites (some of whom are clearly moral despots) will lose a small portion of their wealth. But it's amazingly analogous to the reforms at the beginning of the last century that started to protect labor from the robber barons.
I think the second step is to (yes, at a cost) restore at least some manufacturing capability to the US. This provides jobs to many who are NOT going to be talking tech on HN and also protects us (and the world) against there being potentially a single-source supplier of any given resource.
This is misguided. Respectful debate in general is good, but only when both sides act in good faith. When some act in bad faith, telling outright lies while maintaining a veneer of civility, then you don't have obvious conflict but arguably something worse: corruption. There is some research showing that angry exchanges are in fact helpful in maintaining the integrity of an online community when others are trying to subvert it: https://snap.stanford.edu/conflict/
https://www.jstor.org/stable/3791630 (sorry to those who don't have jstor... I'll try to find stuff)
See all those confederate flags today? The gallows? The Auschwitz shirts? When they tell you they are motivated by racism, believe them!
[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examinati...
This isn't an accurate representation of the US. There are 4 sides:
- extreme left
- left
- right
- extreme right
The proportion of each is probably around: 5%/45%/45%/5% (maybe 10/40/40/10)
The 5% on each extreme are the one making the news on the other side to instill fear from the "other side" (fox news depiction of far left Portland, cnn depiction of far right, etc)
And logically, the people who consume news the most have the most distorted view of the other side: https://twitter.com/HiddenTribesUS/status/114314670369397555...
Since media get money from more viewers, and since fear sells, unfortunately they have no incentive to make this better. Finding neutral sources while staying informed is a hard problem.
And if anything, I think that this classical projected political spectrum isn't a line, it's really a circle. Extreme left and extreme right are the same thing; the particulars of the beliefs don't matter (if you think they do, you can always imagine this being a flat strip of paper glued into a Möbius strip).
It's not just you - this is named "Horseshoe Theory".
> Supporters of President Trump have stormed the US Capitol to protest lawmakers certifying Joe Biden’s election victory. Based on what you have read or heard about this, do you support or oppose these actions?
45% of Republicans said yes! Now I am not asserting that half of republicans are about to engage in sedition. But is it because they have different beliefs? No, instead I think it’s just that the 5% you describe has nothing to lose.
Also, is it possible there's a sampling bias in poll respondents? I almost never respond to polls myself because they often seem to be designed to be polarizing.
it's more along these three camps:
- Progressives / Left Populists (such as Bernie, AOC, etc...) - they aren't really "extreme left"; they are more moderate lib-left if you ask any Europeans. They don't really want to demolish capitalism as some actual Marxists suggest, they just want to fix/modulate capitalism to be reasonable to the ordinary people, at the expense of large corporations and free market policies. Although some of them are in the Democratic Party, they are still failing to exert any power in there, which is mostly comprised of neoliberals. However, they are gaining an noticeable amount of partisan support these days, up to the point that the neoliberals had to actually strategize a bit to make sure Bernie doesn't win in the DNC primaries.
- Neoliberals / Globalists (Obama, Biden, etc...) - this is where the majority of politicians are at, comprising the majority of the Democratic Party, as well as about half of the Republican Party (or even more). Although it seems on the surface that the Dems and Reps are fighting the shit out of each other, many of them are still bind by the common interest of supporting various austerity policies, free reign of large corporations and making sure the global free market economy continue without any problems. Note that the left tends to use the term "neoliberal" more, while the right tends to use the term "globalists" more. From the left and right populist's view they are the source of all evil, and from a neoliberal's view the populist left/right are respectively "communists" and "fascists".
- Right Populists / Nationalists (Trump, etc...) - Just like the progressives hate that the neoliberals are looting people with austerity measures and skyrocketing housing/healthcare/education costs, the right populists hate that the globalists are looting people by shutting down former industrial businesses, and imposing some weird liberal cultural hegemony upon them. Though I do not completely know the dynamics inside that camp, there seems to be a common agenda of being oppositional to immigration and being pro local business, as well as a deep hatred of liberal media. They have started to take over the GOP party, which is why there are no-Trump Republicans fighting against it.
Trump is kind of an outlier - he was a real-estate neoliberal but was kind of an outcast among them, and he forced his way into politics with many years of reality TV image-shaping. Many on the far-left criticize him being a neoliberal in right populist coating, and some on the far-right are disappointed by Trump about him having achieved nothing (which is a different phenomenon than no-Trump Republicans - I'm talking about actual fascists here!)
There are also some on the left (state communists, anarchists) as well as the far-right (fascists, neoreactionaries) which I've excluded, as they are still a bit fringe.
It also seems that the right often oversimplifies the left as well as the left oversimplifies the right, and that's partially because there are power struggles inside both of the respective camps that makes the whole situation a bit complicated. For example, if you picked a random BLM protester, chances are you'll get a neoliberal (if their protest was co-opted by the establishment Democrats), a progressive (if their protest wasn't co-opted but are still mainly peaceful and still believe in electorialism), or an anarchist (if they do not believe in electorialism and are more interested in looting and smashing the police). A naive right-populist will see protesters destroying police stations and say that the Democrats are letting this happen and the left are all "cultural Marxists", but in reality it's a situation where anarchists are on the rise and the neoliberals are failing to take control over the "peaceful/orderly protest" narrative. Actually, I don't really know if the protestors participating in the violence are simply "anarchists", maybe they are just uninterested in these labels and just want to wreck shit up as they are fed up by many decades of police suppression.
The reality is there is a conspiracy/are conspiracies that are coordinated by various disparate secret and not secret organizations whose goals sometimes don't but most often do overlap, and occurences like Q-anon and these protests are likely psyop techniques to distract potential genuine movements that might respond or create desired counter-responses in order to limit the fallout while the oligarchs catch up in the race against the internet as the last bastion of freedom of speech that could cause a neo-peasants revolt if the people found out the truth.
1) On web sites like this I've noticed a rule "Assume good faith". But in real life there are lots of people who say things in bad faith. In the case of PR people and trial lawyers and partisan politicians it seems to be in the job description to say things in bad faith. I have no solutions on how to fix this- I don't believe in God but I can imagine a deity punishing people who choose to exercise their free speech to profit on bad faith lies- but I have no theory of government to stop this behavior on earth.
2) We have a society based around money. People in this site like to whine about what Zuckerberg or whomever is doing but the guiding principle of society seems to be "he who has the money makes the rules". So if Zukerberg wants to weaponize Facebook against society the full power of the financial system will help him do it as long as he has the money/ property to control Facebook. I think in theory we could transition to a society where CEO and board members have their shares and/ or control of companies confiscated if they act in ways which harms society. (Perhaps putting things to a vote, i.e. a universal ballet: should Zuckerberg have his shares of Facebook seized and auctioned off under the theory he is harming society y/n)). Since this has never been tried as far as I know I don't know if my solution could even work.
About 2:
> Since this has never been tried as far as I know I don't know if my solution could even work.
This was tried, during various revolutions that included the phase of killing the rich people and collectivizing their wealth. I worry your suggestion here would end up being used the same way - with prominent CEOs getting their companies auctioned from under them by angry mobs.
Humans seem to be wired via evolution to tolerate being controlled by higher status humans otherwise I'd expect confiscation of property to be a popular proposition in a world where high status people own the majority of property and wealth inequality keeps increasing.
We'd have more discussions about where institutiins are serving us well and less about "those poor CEOs, think of their feelings" if we weren't seemingly wired to care about high status people's desires more than our own needs.
Democratic rule is simply mob rule by proxy.
Sure, hypothetically if Mark Zuckerberg refuses to leave the Facebook building after being evicted of his Facebook ownership he could be physically removed by the police.
Why this deserves our sympathy more than a sixteen year old physically arrested for smoking weed is not obvious- or even a tenant physically evicted for being unable to pay rent. Arresting people for drug crimes is treated as normal state violence and happily supported by Americans- but it seems people have evolved to sympathize with a high status billionaire over some kid commiting a victimless crime.
But the fact you think a right to obtain billions of dollars and control the labor of 10 of thousands of workers is a fundemental right- when housing for the poor isn't- I think again goes to my point we've evolved to care more about high status rulers than ourselves. (I mean that literally, tribal humans or proto-humans murdered or outcompeted with less tribal humans at the whims of their tribal leaders and we are the result.)
Anyway I am under no illusions that we are going to have a change in policy and stop caring about aristocrat's feeling more than our own well-being (Donald Trump is sad, let's storm some buildings you guys. Jeff Bezos treats warehouse workers bad- but he needs to be able to do that cause it would hurt his feelings if the workers ran the company instead.) So there's no reason to debate it other than intellectual fun.
Banal, rules-based democracies still need a fundamental set of rights if they're to avoid instantly devolving to mob rule. I really don't want a rules-based democracy voting to kill me and my family, so I'm glad that I have the fundamental right not to be subject to that risk (even if it were supported by the majority.)
One of the values that's pretty prevalent in the United States and a lot of other developed nations is a respect for property rights; if you worked for something, you get to keep it, even if other people would want it more.
Both of these rights exist on a spectrum (e.g. the death penalty can override your right to life in the extreme case, and taxes can override your right to your property to a small extent), but by almost any measure putting your right to property to a vote is extremely far on the "not respecting property rights" side of the spectrum.
Also, I have extremely little confidence that the best way to assuage our political divide is to introduce the perpetual threat of "the majority had better think that what you're doing is useful, otherwise we'll take everything you have."
The rule of law means that sometimes things will arise that slip through the cracks in unintended ways. The solution to this is to fix those cracks and make the law more clearly define what's desired. If this makes a given business model non-viable, then so be it; that's the price of progress. I'd imagine that those is favor of the rule of law, though, can see the slippery slope of letting the mob vote on what do with the property of those who were following the law at the time.
So that got me wondering, ironically given your listing of lawyers as one of the named bad-faith groups, could government be made to act more like the legal system, or could the legal system be incorporated more into government. One specific idea I was considering was whether you could have the option of a defamation-style judicial review of statements of fact made by elected officials. Obviously you wouldn't litigate every statement, but what if there were some sort of challenge process - perhaps with a fee to bring a challenge, and/or consequences for spurious challenges, so they wouldn't become overwhelming - by which the opposition could challenge any public statement of fact by an elected official? Critically this challenge would be brought in a court of law, with all of the professional standards and requirements that entails. (As opposed to being litigated by politicians, like an impeachment proceeding.) It wouldn't be a criminal proceeding, and there wouldn't be criminal consequences. Probably the result would simply be made public, and maybe the losing side would need to pay the costs of the winning side. Of course they would also have had the opportunity to retract and correct the untrue statement at the outset.
As things stand, the president and his supporters are able to say whatever BS they want publicly, then they go to court with these lawsuits, and they say different things, because there are actual consequences there. Perhaps if there were consequences for any knowing lie by an elected official, you'd see fewer of them? The idea wouldn't be to use this for everything, just for clear, baseless statements of fact with reprocussions. And it's not like truth is unknowable; we already have this kind of litigation around defamation, and it largely works.
Anyway, not like I see anything like this happening, but if I were designing a system of government it's something I'd want to consider. (I suppose there's also the chance of it backfiring, simply politicizing the judiciary by involving it more in politics. But again, the responses to the election lawsuits give me some hope there.)
One of the most serious things the court system does is deprive people of their liberty and life. And it is not stellar. You may argue that the 2% to 10% wrongful conviction rate is good (I think it is unacceptable) but what does seem clear is that many judges are swayed by any old pseudo-scientific rubbish (if they even remain awake during the trial): https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-grisham-wrongful...
I like the idea of people being held accountable for mis-information though.
One side effect of this personality type seizing power is that the Overton window has been inflated into a vast, festering portal through which our worst nightmares can crawl out. I doubt it was his intent, but it is the result.
You’ve almost got to admire the raw primitive energy and boundlessness of that level of id. How very sad that it has been employed to such feeble ends; it will ultimately have to be crushed for democracy to prevail.
This mostly I think. It's always been a case of birds of a feather flock together. But internet communication has bridged distance and recommendation engines created echo chambers
Rather than accede to the changing political landscape, Southern Democrats maligned the new Republican Party as an existential threat because it opposed the expansion of slavery in the Western territories. Promoters of secession, called “fire-eaters,” knew they did not command majority support even within the South, so they deployed a rhetoric of fear and anger that condemned Republicans as “fanatics” and encouraged fellow Southerners to regard Lincoln’s election as “an open declaration of war” upon the region.
This hyperbolic language left no room for compromise or middle ground; it was intended to terrify voters into opposing Lincoln. The result was that Lincoln was not listed as a candidate in many Southern precincts, and his election, thus, surprised even moderate Southerners who believed he could not command an electoral college majority. By perverting the electoral process, fire-eaters swayed moderates to adopt their conspiratorial approach to politics.
Lincoln believed in the protection of minority rights, but he also believed in majority rule. Secession was, in his words, an appeal from the “ballot to the bullet.” That is, because Southern Democrats could not persuade a majority of voters to their standard (as they had for decades), they abandoned the political process altogether. This action, Lincoln felt, made self-government impossible. If the losing side in an election could always walk away, how could a nation ever remain intact?
1) The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It by Robert Reich [0]
- Reich drops the buzzword neoliberalism in favor of the word power. I like that as neoliberalism is a terrible phrase for the concept it describes, but make no mistake, it's the insidious, invisible nature of neoliberalism that put our country in a position where neither party served the people well. That is what Reich describes here.
2) The Loudest Voice in the Room: How the Brilliant, Bombastic Roger Ailes Built Fox News-and Divided a Country by Gabriel Sherman [1]
- There is also a Showtime miniseries based on the book you could watch. Pair with the movie Bombshell
3) Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right by Jane Mayer [2]
[0] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52118381-the-system
[1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/15981705-the-loudest-voi...
From OANN to Fox to MSNBC; it's all us-vs-them, fear the others, be afraid, be angry, and stay tuned in for more.
Every time I visit your country I'm apalled and horrified by your news media. It's blatantly exploiting basic animal instinct and core emotions to hook viewers in order to sell ads.
You are a product of your media.
And then there's the network effects of Facebook, Twitter and Parlor...
We have a couple of important institutions that safeguard our news media:
In this case a charismatic demagogue (Donald Trump) has built a cult of personality around himself. He and his enablers employ many of the tactics used by other cult-like organizations, such religious organizations (e.g. scientology), or otherwise (i.e. multilevel marketing schemes). These organizations offer the opportunity to be apart of something "great" and "historic", to teach you how to be strong, to transform yourself from "zero to hero", and have fellowship with other like minded individuals who have the will and desire to improve their lives too. In return they demand absolute, unquestioning, and unwavering fealty.
This has little to do with political orientation (left vs right) and everything to do with Donald Trump. There is currently a "civil war" going on inside the GOP, and the most vicious attacks from the cult-of-MAGA tend to be aimed at members of the political right who voice even the slightest dissent and are thus deemed "insufficiently loyal" (i.e. counterrevolutionaries).
1. Sampling. There’s a big universe of facts, and each media outlet reports on a tiny piece of this universe.
2. Stereotypes. When you read a news story, you unconsciously pattern match and associate it to related examples you have in your mind.
3. Context. When you read a news story, you subconsciously have some fascet of your own identity in mind (as a Republican, as a pro-choice person, etc.).
All three are in effect when stories are reported on and consumed. It’s a series of lenses that samples, then distorts, the truth in a way that given the same real-world event, different people may come to completely different conclusions about what happened.
I’d add a #4: fake news. This amplifies #1 significantly. It was less of a problem in Lippmann’s time since the News world was much smaller. He might have called this “rumor”, not news.
> people may draw completely different conclusions from the same facts
Le Bon points out a more basic issue. He wrote about the kinds of crowds who used to storm the Bastille and so on—and appear to have returned to American history today after a long vacation. He concluded that the members of such crowds simply don't do things like considering facts or drawing conclusions. Instead, they associate chains of images and follow suggestions from prestigious leaders. TV advertisments do exactly what he suggested, and so does Donald Trump. It appears to work.
This puts me in a dilemma. As a physicist with egalitarian tendencies, I want everyone to take action that will provide the things they want and need, according to valid arguments founded on the laws of nature. But apparently, one of those laws of nature says that valid reasons have nothing in common with the reasons people do things.
Bernays resolved that dilemma by telling people like me to manipulate everyone else into doing what (we believe) is in their best interest. I'm really uncomfortable with that position, but it's hard to see an alternative.
Lippmann says the answer is two parts:
1. For voters, improve their ability to make the right choice via education and representative (not direct) democracy.
2. For politicians, improve data so they can make better choices.
Interestingly, (2) sounds a lot like data.gov, a century before data.gov!
Propaganda.
> For voters, improve their ability to make the right choice via education and representative (not direct) democracy
The common theme of Le Bon and Bernays was that such groups as "the voters" are inherently not capable of making deliberate choices, and those choices will be made for them by propagandists. I find that depressing, but their arguments for it are convincing.
It wasn't always the case that "fake news" aka propaganda made so much headway. The degree to which that was happening from ~2015 until now is a unique phenomenon not paralleled since Lippmann's time.
He called it propaganda and it was a big problem during his time.
> Without some form of censorship, propaganda in the strict sense of the word is impossible. In order to conduct a propaganda there must be some barrier between the public and the event. Access to the real environment must be limited, before anyone can create a pseudo-environment that he thinks wise or desirable. For while people who have direct access can misconceive what they see, no one else can decide how they shall misconceive it, unless he can decide where they shall look, and at what. The military censorship is the simplest form of barrier, but by no means the most important, because it is known to exist, and is therefore in certain measure agreed to and discounted.
IMO we got here because social media allows people to run from one form of censorship straight into the arms of another without realizing they're still being censored. The same thing happened in Lippmann's time. People did not realize their circles were excluding information. The result was a couple periods of very-difficult-to-reconcile division.
I've seen compelling evidence on 4chan to make me believe that there was some shadiness going on in this election, perhaps moreso than normal. However, even I can admit that it does not appear to rise to the level of systemic voter fraud that I would need to call this election a "sham", nor does it appear systemic by any measure.
Can you see the difference between "everyone I don't agree with is 100% incorrect and racist" and my statement? Can you see how claiming intelligent working people are "in another reality" might be divisive to the people you're (falsely) claiming to want to meet halfway?
It goes both ways too - the right still won't admit that climate change is a thing to be combated even though that it is facially obvious to anyone that climate change has at least some negative effects.
It's a powerful bubble, too. I checked in on thedonald.win at Thanksgiving, and they had a meme aimed directly at me: "So glad you could come take some time off during your busy day to come make fun of us. You must be a real piece of work" or something along those lines. I burst out laughing.
But the other side of it is valid too: People say that there's no point in debating with folks who are "True Believers," since it merely gives them credibility and legitimacy. It's valid; I just don't personally buy that. The way to change someone's mind is to try to see things from their point of view, and really walk in their shoes, i.e. allow yourself the possibility of you changing your mind. At that point, it seems like both people are in the right mental space to be willing to change.
Tough problem all around. I'm not sure there's any effective solutions, so maybe both sides banning each other and enjoying their respective bubbles is the best we can hope for, given human nature. I just try to take a positive view.
The country will likely settle down in a few months, so this too shall pass. It raises question marks about the next cycle, but at least it's four years away.
Also, there will be no unity. Everyone on the right-wing is doubling-down to oppose anything Biden plans on doing.
This Jan 6th march was actually planned weeks prior and many people were calling "for every able bodied man" to go to DC for the march.
Many more are planned.
I don't agree with other subreddits automatically banning people based on post history, but I can see why the subreddit was banned, along with the left leaning subreddit chapotraphouse which engaged in similar behaviour.
You say "issuing death threats" like it was mandated by the mods. As far as I could tell, the mods were doing what they could to keep everybody contained within their zone. And the premise of Reddit is that anybody can create their zone; if you don't like it, you don't have to view it.
My point is, the counterargument that they were banned due to bad behavior seems to be slightly misleading. Every sub has bad behavior, and I know for a fact (because I saw it!) that the mods were clamping down hard on anything remotely like what you mention. The community was downvoting such comments too.
along with the left leaning subreddit chapotraphouse which engaged in similar behaviour
Can you be more specific? /r/LateStageCapitalism is still up, and they seem to "issue death threats" just as frequently. For example, they frequently reference guillotines while gesturing towards the rich.
Even disregarding any content that may or may not have been on the subreddit, the ban happened (four?) months after the subreddit's mods had already locked it down and everyone had migrated to thedonald.win. The ban didn't actually have a purpose by the time they did it, so that reason was just an excuse to get rid of content they didn't like.
Reddit might be a valid example of this since the forums in question are largely closed communities, denying them one forum moved them en-mass to another. On other platforms like Facebook and Twitter the ecosystem is different, de-platforming works! In the grand scheme of things the traffic at TheDonald.win just isn't very many American voters.
Furthermore the world is so complicated and technology is so powerful that people are more affected by simulated reality than real reality. Major events that affect people's lives are mediated by technology that can be used to convey falsity as easily as truth (perhaps easier).
At this point, even Trump telling people to stop (which, to his credit, he has) will not help, in the same way that democrats telling Antifa to stop will not help (I mean Biden has asked them to stop for months now, and they're still launching fireworks at the courthouse in Portland to the point the mayor is now begging for federal help).
Political violence has been normalized by the media (both social and not) to the point where, even popular politicians who disagree with the mob will become its victims.
The scary part is that some people perpetuated all this polarization and rage for money.
3-4 decades of utter gridlock has left the country with both a power vacuum and many aggrieved parties looking for a break from the status quo.
Truly splitting up the USA would require a war and that's more trouble than its worth in most peoples' opinions: I've kinda grown fond of letting my neighbor's kid cut the lawn for $25, even though he is a Democrat.
Now, OTOH, spinning off a state or two is within reach: e.g., giving CA and NY their independence would be fine with me. But then that's just me!8-))
It's always been that way. We've been at war with each other since the very beginning. North vs South. Federalists vs Anti-Federalists. Nativists vs Pro-Immigration. Protectionist vs Free Trade.
Heck, just a decade or so into the republic a vice president and a secretary of treasury had a duel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burr%E2%80%93Hamilton_duel
The easiest tell is in the name. "United" States of America. If we were so united, we wouldn't have the need to put united since it would be self-evident.
The only times we've come together, briefly, is when we have a common enemy - whether it is natives, blacks, germans, japanese, russians, chinese, mexicans, etc. For a brief few weeks, the country was united after 9/11.
> Segregation of information sources? Politicization of media outlets? Self-reinforcing social bubbles? A combination of all of them and more?
Nope. You can have the same information and two people are going to come to two different conclusions. Forcing the entire country to watch CNN or Foxnews isn't going to solve the problem. It is just going to antagonize one side even more.
You can argue that it is impossible for a country as large as the US ( or china, russia, india, etc ) to be "united". Too many people across too vast a territory to keep everyone's interests aligned. Heck, you can argue that these aren't really countries but empires too. And all empires eventually crumble.
But the truth is that huge chunks of the population have lived under different realities in the US since the very beginning and has continued ever since.
The rioters/protesters are largely white as opposed to the more-diverse BLM protesters (more on that later). These people feel like the US Government, in general, and that includes moderate republicans, has failed them in the past several decades by sending their jobs overseas, or by allowing immigrants into the country who have taken their jobs. They feel like they're being left behind, which, in truth, they are. Blue collar jobs have been exported, en masse, over the years, and that's been a bi-partisan effort resulting in lifting countless people out of poverty outside the US, but putting incredible pressure on people inside of the US, particularly the middle class, who feel like they have few or no prospects.
And of course the irony here, when compared to the BLM protests, is that if a sizable segment of these rioters/protesters weren't racist they would understand that this is how Black American have felt _for a couple of hundred years_. Important note: this is not to say that these rioters/protesters are even close to being as poorly treated as the black community. Outsourcing their jobs and giving their former wages to owners/capital in the form of profits is SO FAR from the historical treatment of black Americans that someone will read this and consider it laughable to even compare the two. But they are getting a taste of what it's like when the government stops working for them, the formerly very privileged (not relative to the 1% but certainly to black americans) white middle class.
All of the polarization stems from that. "You've taken my opportunity and everyone else seems to be getting theirs and I no longer have mine. Fuck you. I'm going to break shit until you listen up."
That said, I would agree most people could afford it today if we'd kept some of that exported wealth stateside, or if we'd spread the wealth that did remain stateside out more evenly over the past 40 years instead of our policies benefiting those with capital so disproportionately.
Now, with Dems in control, USCoC is back in the driver's seat:
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/jan/4/chamber-comm...
Move the boot factory to China and profit!
Maybe they were storming the capitol because they thought the ghost of Jack Welch was in there.
> And of course the irony here, when compared to the BLM protests, is that if a sizable segment of these rioters/protesters weren't racist they would understand that this is how Black American have felt _for a couple of hundred years_.
Why is what people look like so important to you? It sounds as if you are saying that if a group of thousands of black Trump supporters did exactly the same thing, it would be ok. And that the BLM rioters over the summer were somehow more acceptable because they were more diverse.
How is that not pre-judging people by how they look? Whenever I ask people this, they essentially tell me that while they can't know exactly what an individual is like by their skin color, they can use skin color as a proxy for other characteristics, and make inferences about how that person has been treated in life by how they look. So in a roundabout way, yes, they are making unjustified pre-judgements based on people's skin color.
Is this really ok?
You can see interviews with David Duke where he clarifies that he doesn't hate every black person, he just assumes that black people in general are not compatible with our society, but that there are individual exceptions to this. Klansmen will tell you in interviews that they don't hate black people purely because of how they look, but how they act, and that they are using their skin color to infer how they will act.
Height is a visible characteristic that is strongly correlated with success in life, do you use that to judge people as well?
The truth is that purely through numerical probability you can make pre-judgements about people based on their appearance. I for one however go out of my way not to. That doesn't mean that I am blinding myself to people's physical characteristics or trying to erase them of course. It merely means that I won't condemn or excuse people's actions because of how they look.
The other is “living” in their little Jim Crow fantasyland.
What’s happing today is the result of reality intruding on their fantasy. It’s the same mechanism that causes earthquakes, or psychotic breaks when people can no longer keep up the appearance of being that up-and-coming Hollywood screenwriter.
Even Pence, McConnell, and Mattis are calling this what it is: a fascist insurrection, led by a failed President. So congratulations on the audacity to both-side this.
We lost our mojo. We forgot that leadership is not leaving anybody behind.
We left a lot of people behind, then we blamed them for not keeping up.
Sorry, on behalf of my class, I really am sorry. The consequences, when we face ecological catastrophe, could be very serious indeed.
Stay safe, people, and be kind
Haven't they been demanding to be left behind every step of the way? For decades they've opposed minimum wage, socialized healthcare, welfare, unions and just about anything "socialist" that would have helped them. Couple that with ever increasing urbanization that is not going to be reversed anytime soon, what could you possibly do to help them not be left behind?
We have those things in Europe and yet our economic periphery (Italy, Spain, Greece, to a degree France and former East Germany) is very similar to American rust belt. High unemployment, numerous industries collapsed, bitter voters casting their lot with populists and extremists.
The Yellow Vests in France were much more violent than anything that happened in USA recently, and they were driven by the same combination of economic uncertainty and alienation from the political elite.
1) People prefer news coverage which confirms their previously-held beliefs (aka confirmation bias).
2) News outlets are financially incentivized to deliver news which confirms whatever beliefs we may have, since if we don't then viewers will change the channel. This causes news outlets to balkanize along various points on the political spectrum, ranging from extreme right-wing to extreme left-wing.
3) News outlets receive 100% of the gain of confirming our biases, but pay less than 100% of the total cost of doing so (aka "the tragedy of the commons").
4) Viewers end up consuming primarily (if not exclusively) media which confirms their biases. This becomes a self-reinforcing echo chamber.
5) Simultaneously, there has been a proliferation of media outlets. In the 1950s, there were 2-3 TV channels from which one could consume news. Today, there are 500 channels on DirecTV, and any number of internet news sites / Twitter accounts / etc. where you can get your fix.
6) In the old days, news outlets had to be moderate in their reporting, in order to appeal to the broadest possible audience. Conversely, the more sources of information there are, the louder any individual source must become, in order to stand out from the crowd.
7) With the internet, it's possible to create news outlets which cater to a minority of people who hold extreme viewpoints (aka capturing the long tail of the media market).
8) Over time, there are more and more outlets delivering more and more extreme reportage, and the news we consume becomes more extremist in nature.
9) Since our news diet plays a big part in shaping our worldview, over time we ourselves become more extreme.
I'd love to be wrong about this, since it doesn't bode well for the future of the human race. Someone please restore my faith in humanity by effectively rebutting the points above.
2020: Politicians are news, and the Media is political.
As a wise man once said, the chickens have come home to roost.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FCC_fairness_doctrine
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/06/roger-a...
This wasn't by mistake, or stumbling into it. It was a very purposeful attack on our democracy.
There has been a huge decline in how people are able to deal with uncomfortable conversations, so it's not surprising there is widespread confusion and frustration.
We're all somewhat guilty of sometimes not communicating perfectly, but which culture over the past four years promoted censorship? which culture promoted shutting people up and demonizing them? We will see these times very differently in the near future, I think.
edit: and of course this gets downvoted lol. When are we ever going to at least start listening without visceral emotional reactions, I wonder.
Start there, since that is the historic start point.
Many of these things are side effects of how networks of people propagate information, and where the people can be co-opted using specifically coded content.
The rest of it can also be seen as a trade off between 1-on-1 communication and Many-to-Many communications + speed of interaction.
Now even the reality that they are not a majority is too hard for them to understand.
In short, the major political 'camps' think about events with a different dimension. Conservatives think in the 'civilization vs barbarism' axis. Progressives think on the 'oppressed vs oppressor' axis. Libertarians think on the 'authoritarian vs freedom' axis.
The same event, when viewed through the corresponding filter, has different interpretations.
Going back further, before the existence of mass media, everything was more in-person/local. When you have a small community of people you talk to in-person, you’re going to be way more reasonable than on some global, anonymous, online community. Social media is a great example - it’s a breeding ground for arguments, conspiracy theories and extremism. People who would be perfectly civil to each other in person can be absolute assholes to each other online. How many email/Slack disagreements have you been in at work that instantly resolve the moment you move to in-person or video chat?
Some will say this polarization always existed, but I do feel it has gotten significantly worse. I don’t remember the 90s feeling this polarized, with people so unable to agree upon basic facts about current events. And I’m guessing the 90s were more polarized than the 50s.
One good thing - hostilities BETWEEN nations seem to be decreasing. I don’t think we’re on the cusp of World War 3 or any such thing, but hostilities WITHIN nations seem to be on the rise, at least from my “gut feel” view of my life so far.
On that note, life has been good for a long time in the west. War is an absolute atrocity, but it does put petty disputes into perspective, and build some sense of national unity. Since World War 2, life has been pretty cushy and safe in western democracies, so maybe we’re starting to make enemies of each other to fill the void?
My 2 cents
There's too much truth for most of us, so we hide in the comforting illusions of conspiracies and deception. (especially when in some countries, like the US, there's no checks on whether the information shared is accurate or not, and there's a shortage of fact checking even among the professionals....)
Most people do to one extent or another, just it might be wiser to vett them from time to time. It's a way of dealing with overwhelming information.
1. Gangs
2. Ethnicity
3. Nationalism
4. Religion
Groups of people latch on to an ideology and act on whatever the leader tells them to do or what they see others do. You can observe this when looking at videos of riots or other mob like behavior.
Of course not caring about it was decried as privilege. This was self-victimization to a large degree. People in western nations overwhelmingly did not care about any of these things anymore.
Right now no social media company will get serious about targeted propaganda because it would cut into their profits.
But regulation can create a level playing field - the rules apply to everyone, so, more-or-less, everyone’s profits take a hit and now you’re not putting yourself in a weaker position vis-a-vis your competitors by addressing all these issues we are seeing.
Regulation can create a level playing field and solve the collective action problem by making all companies do the same thing at the same time, more-or-less.
The vast majority of the US population live in a very normal a-political reality that is largely untouched by narratives that drive the higher-engaged folks' perception of what is going on.
The sliver of the US population that genuinely occupy a different reality is dominated by people that occupy an almost exclusively right-wing media reality. (There is a left-wing media reality for sure, but it is microscopic, counterpunch is just not that highly trafficked!)
The riots in the capitol today demonstrated this quite clearly when contrasted with the protests that kick off the Trump presidency. The "women's' march" was a fairly clear statement in acknowledgement of Trump's presidency but a denial that it was truly representative of popular will. Today's demonstration & riot was populated by a mix of people consuming non-facts and fabulists exploiting those people. QAnon followers were prominent and appeared to be at least a plurality if not a majority of the participants. The people filming themselves in Nancy Pelosi's office were prominent neo-nazis or YouTube provocateurs (Fuentes and BakedAlasaka).
A few thousand people on the capitol overwhelmed a police force that was at least partially sympathetic and was certainly understaffed, in the alternate reality where the opposition to Trump were anti-democratic in the same way they would overwhelm any force arrayed against them in a similar way much more easily through sheer quantity, but they don't hold those views or endorse those methods.
Roughly 1/3rd of voters thing the presidential election was fraudulent, but closer to 1/5th think Trump really won according to Morning Consult, some of this is just facing the fact that the US has always been a bit of a low-trust/conspiratorial society. Some of what is going on is certainly better reporting on what is really happening - things that have actually always happened. Some of what is happening is just good old fashioned bad leadership!
Moreover my analysis and reflection of the last 4 years where in I awakened and gained a sort of political consciousness after previously in my life having zero care for politics in any way is
This is a particular evolution of democracy which I call Democratic theater and it relies on deceptive control of the population by the media and the intelligence and security apparatus to provide the illusion of freedom to prevent the need for delivering real results by keeping the population in a constant state of confusion and conflict by supporting both sides of an artificial divide to prolong the state of conflict
I guess some of the beneficiaries of this are upwards who can benefit from the enhanced media appeal of this division but I think the primary beneficiary is the status quo and it's done to preserve power in a system where people expect to be free but are basically constrained but given this outlet which is a sort of cathartic entertainment, the purpose of which is to channel genuine to satisfaction into controlled avenues so that it never actually emerges as revolution or organized political action that has any chance of disrupting the status quo in a meaningful way
I believe it's a form of controlled opposition where a cabal of intelligence security and media interests control both sides of the conflict and I believe these sort of mass phenomena are driven by masters of narrative control psychology sociology.
I started off believing that Trump would do what he said and kind of save America and root out these shackles and the cabal of interest that keeps them in place but it seems he was just a charlatan who couldn't deliver and perhaps never intended to. I now believe it's likely that Trump was probably compromised by the very same cabal of interests who got him to dance to the tune they wanted as a puppet for 4 years as part of his great charade
In essence all of this Democratic theater is more window dressing for business as usual.
I'm happy to hear different opinions and to update my own perspective but I'm not going to debate this it simply the belief that I've arrived at at this time after many years of reflection and thought.
You have my statement. Rather than pretending it doesn't hold up, why not specifically address my statement and demonstrate to yourself how you believe it to be false.
The public disagreements are over things that the corporations absolutely don't care about one way or the other, or that they are divided over. The one thing neither side will ever even hint at doing is make corporations and their officers responsible for the consequences of their actions and choices.
I just want and concrete example.
To pretend to be unaware of dependence of most US politicians on corporate campaign donations is not a way to participate in an honest discussion.
For the phenomenon I am talking about, both sides agree, and you never hear a peep about what they agreed on. For example, was any corporate officer of any large bank prosecuted for millions of counts of fraud, after 2008? For even one count? Did any single one go to prison? Tim Geithner got made SecTreas, instead.
The DoD every year utterly fails to account for how most of the money they are handed was spent. Do you imagine that is because it can't be done? That they can't follow orders? The major corporations account for more than that amount, every year, every dime.
If you want to talk about the 2008 financial crisis, ok. Why did Dodd-Frank pass? Why did the corporate backers allow for the creation of the CFPB? How is it that only once Trump came into office did it stop doing its job?
You are asserting that there is a cabal of corporations controlling politics in the USA, what do they actually agree on specifically? Why have things in many instances actually changed when administrations change?
Things change because things change. Look to the things that don't change, instead. Spook whistleblowers are hounded into solitary confinement right through Bush, Obama, and Trump presidencies. Random innocent people are vaporized from the sky in countries we are not at war with, right through Bush, Obama, and Trump presidencies. Massive fraud campaigns ordered by officers of major corporations are prosecuted with exactly zero of such officers ever imprisoned or even inconvenienced, right through Bush, Obama, and Trump presidencies.
I'll tell you more when you give me your email address to discuss. And a public profile with your real name. I'll share mine, if you have the cojones to share yours, friend.
Nothing in the comment faults my words. And what I'm saying is too important to tarnish with a dishonest discussion with someone being dishonest.
I know you hope you can dismiss this view with some metacommentary, but nothing raised has challenged what i said, and i think you're wasting your time by continuing to comment because you're not succeeding in dismantling the ideas i presented.
I have a solution for you, that i proposed initially. You don't want to believe this idea, so simply don't. Just refuse to believe it. That will be easiest for you and i really do not want anything to be hard for you.
You are right about one thing, this is a waste of time. Reply with whatever nonsense you want or don't, I'm done here.
That comment asked for how, that's not a challenge, nor a refutation.
You don't want to face this idea, so to try to avoid engaging with it, you pretend you need to see more to merely consider it. But you can consider it immediately, and relate it to the world you see.
I understand that's not something you want, and it's hard for you, and I don't want it to be hard for you, so you could try just not believing it. And you can do that, without pretending you've disproved it. Why are you unwilling to disbelieve without pretending you've also disproved it, yet at the same time refusing try to disprove it by addressing and criticizing it? No wonder you seem upset, it must be very hard to be stuck in such a bind. But it's no one else's responsibility to get you out of that except yourself. It's your responsibility what you choose to believe or not and it's your responsibility to convince yourself or not of ideas, no one else's.
You work it out. You can think and use your mind.
You say it's condescending to note you own your own beliefs but it seems more condescending or arrogant or immature or irresponsible to try to incorrectly put the responsibility on other people, for what you choose to believe and how you choose to believe it.
If you are open and curious I'm sure you'd be willing to engage with an idea and criticize it but it seems from your comment that you've already decided that whatever other people write here will be nonsense, which is similar to how you decided that other ideas are nonsense without engaging and criticizing them, you don't seem open and curious at all. it seems much more like denial and psychological avoidance. which makes sense because these ideas are challenging and they threaten the worldview and the associated sense of security and stability with that.
So this problem where you shut your mind off and refuse to consider and critique the ideas and instead of this project onto others to demand that they solve the problem for you, is a common pathological projection pattern, but you can fix it, accepting you got yourself into this place and owning your own beliefs and the responsibility to convince yourself or not of ideas that you encounter.
Best of luck, hope this helps!
Email me
I call it the toaster fucker problem. Man wakes up in 1980, tells his friends "I want to fuck a toaster" Friends quite rightly berate and laugh at him, guy deals with it, maybe gets some therapy and goes on a bit better adjusted.
Guy in 2021 tells his friends that he wants to fuck a toaster, gets laughed at, immediately jumps on facebook and finds "Toaster Fucker Support group" where he reads that he's actually oppressed and he needs to cut out everyone around him and should only listen to his fellow toaster fuckers.
Apply this analogy to literally any insular bubble, it applies as equally to /r/thedonald as it does to the emaciated Che Guevara larpers that cry thinking about ringing their favourite pizza place.
And the invention of twitter... most sane people don't talk. If they ever say anything, it is too common sensual to be retweeted. But if someone say something explosive it got exponentially retweeted. The character limit also eliminate the possibility of any nuance in position.
I like the idea of common sensual, but I think we all might have slightly different tastes :D
I've shared your post with my good friends at the Toaster Fucker Support Group. Expect to get doxxed within the next 48 hours, bigot.
In 1995 it was a Usenet newsgroup, in 2005 it was a vBulletin forum, today it's a Twitter or Facebook community, tomorrow, it will be something else.
Facebook and Twitter get tons of hate because they make money hand over fist and founders/insiders become richer than god, (unlike Usenet or forum sites) but the internet has always been this way.
Also, you might be overestimating how high the barrier to entry was. There were over 200,000 usenet groups at the peak.
Reddit is designed around grouping people in echo chambers and users come to it for this reason. Facebook may still be more impactful due to the sheer volume of users, but I don't think Reddit's impact is negligeable.
As an aside, even though HN has a distinct left bias I would say it's definitely one of the fairest forums I've posted on in the last couple of years.
Social media has proven itself to have massive impact on the zeitgeist, and it has been weaponized the world over to serve the interests of those willing to manipulate others in order to further their own (often misanthropic) goals.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/14/how-400-russia...
[2] https://www.cfr.org/blog/whatsapps-influence-brazilian-elect...
This is actually one thing I don't understand about the alleged progressive side and many people share this view. You could be made to believe basically anything the same way Trump supporters believe a communist overtake of the US is imminent.
Furthermore the support these stories got from intelligence agencies point to very serious problems that do indeed influence democracy in a very bad way, far worse than Putin can imagine in his dreams. Of course it might put a smile on his face, that much is understood.
True that the zeitgeist has influence, but it is mainly driven by western companies, not by the Russian government. Aside from the language barrier you cannot name one talking point this alleged Russian propaganda contained.
You do understand the implication if you decry any opposition to EU integration as Russian interference? Because any political discourse stops right there with you.
No, there was honest dissatisfaction with the EU in Britain. That might be wrong or not, but the Russian thing just made people reinforce their views, because that actually makes sense now.
Russians, seriously...
Brazil is another story here, although I think the facts have to be checked.
Well, I don't know how honest you'd call The Sun. Obviously, it wasn't Russia - but equally obviously, the whole euro-skepticism thing was hardly an organic phenomenon. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a single issue of a right wing British tabloid published in the last ten years that didn't have at least one article in it about how bad the EU is.
Influencing democracy is older than democracy - I think the thing that's causing such a furore is that the internet is lowering the barriers for this kind of yellow-press skulduggery, to the point that losers like Steve Bannon start to have actual power.
You say "the Sun" as if a single tabloid the vast majority of all powerful people and decision makers don't even read was some decisive factor. Now consider the total and complete opposition of the BBC, the Guardian, the Economist, the Financial Times, the Times, the Civil Service, dominant factions in both political factions, etc.
To say Brexit wasn't organic is to innuendo into existence some vast but vague conspiracy. "Obviously" it wasn't Russia you say, but it had to be someone right? Isn't this the same sort of rhetoric that has lead to the Capitol just being stormed? Isn't it far more likely that parts of the British press reported bad stories about the EU for decades simply because there were bad stories to report, as you'd expect there to be? And reporting stories about governments is the sort of thing a free press is supposed to do?
That and the structure of the EU government is a mess, the parliament has precisely zero impact on decision making and everything is run by the unelected bureaucrats in Belgium.
The UK has essentially walked away from a position of power in a very large nation, to take a position as a small nation on the periphery.
That might be fine for ten years, it might even be fine for fifty - but inevitably, the difference in negotiating power between the UK and its neighbors will show, to the UK's detriment.
It's already been showing in the brexit negotiations, where the EU held essentially all the cards.
The UK/EU deal isn't perfect but Norway and Switzerland already pricked their ears up and senior politicians in both countries are now publicly questioning why they can't have the same sort of deal. The EU backed down on many things they'd previously claimed were requirements, like the ECJ. And the UK has signed over 60 trade deals in preparation for leaving.
There's a sort of assumption here that might makes right. But the richest countries in the world are all small ones: Switzerland, Singapore, etc. Meanwhile empires spent most of the 20th century collapsing, often due to internal corruption and decay.
I don't really know the details of the deal, but it seems to me that even if you do get a good deal at one point, the fact is, the UK has very little negotiating power in comparison to the EU. If the EU decided, much like the USA decided with Japan in the 80's, that the UK should sign an unfavourable deal like the Plaza Accord, the UK would be able to do very little but sign it.
Obviously, as you've pointed out, there are a ton of countries that, for some time, step their way around all the pitfalls of this kind of position. But none of them are as large as the UK.
This is a perfect example where the EU should have totally crushed the UK by using its supposedly superior size and strength, according to size=power theory. And yet what we see is the opposite.
The EU demanded that individual nations buy collectively through the Commission. The Commission is run by diversity hires: half the commissioners had to be women, by demand of von der Leyen. They then moved way too slowly, didn't approve vaccines quickly (and still haven't), didn't order enough and now EU countries are at the back of the queue as a result. The first German to be vaccinated with German technology received their jab in ... the UK. The collective buying operation has since collapsed, with Germany running to Russia to try and acquire some of the Sputnik vaccine.
The whole pathetic affair is documented here:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-eu-has-botched-its-v...
When it comes to bureaucracies, size does not equal power. Size does not equal benefits. Size equals incompetence, lethargy and internal decay. The EU is run by people who failed upwards their entire careers. They insisted they be given power over vaccines even though the EU has no formal treaty-defined role in healthcare, and then they screwed it up on a massive scale.
Oh dear. I suppose you think Boris Johnson got to where he was by his sharp intellect? Or does he also qualify as a diversity hire, on the basis that his family tree is more a family strongly-connected graph?
On the other hand, perhaps you are seeing the brilliance of british leadership in the coronavirus numbers, which are of course, neck and neck with other great nations, like the US, and Brazil.
van der Leyen got to be head of the EU via an entirely secret process, about which we only have one public piece of evidence as to how it works: the claim that the next president of the Commission had to be a woman. She won nothing whatsoever to get there. Then she insisted that half of all Commissioners be women: this is a matter of public record. In theory she doesn't even get to influence the choice of Commissioners, that's meant to be up to the country, but the reality of the EU often doesn't seem to match what the treaties say.
COVID doesn't really respond to political leadership. That's one of the few things we can say about it with certainty. None of the interventions tried so far have any statistical correlation with healthcare outcomes. Vaccination programmes are quite responsive to politics, on the other hand (whether COVID will respond to vaccines is another topic, but the manufacturing and rollout are within the scope of human control).
You clearly live in a parallel reality, where east asia does not exist, where there isn't a direct and obvious relation between leaders who made light of COVID (Johnson, Trump, Bolsanaro) and horrible casualty figures, and where the population of british people named 'Dave' has more talent than the entire population of british women.
Honestly, mandating 50 percent of commissioners are women seems very reasonable. 50 percent of the population are women, so it makes sense that they should be proportionally represented. That's called democracy.
For the record, I'm not a big EU fan. But I also live in the real world, and on that planet, the fact that the last two male prime ministers of england (and diverse cabinet members) were in the same school, the same (small) social club, and probably share more than a few second cousins, is an outcome that would be so incredibly unlikely in a fair and competitive system that if it did happen, reasonable people would call foul play.
If you still think it's a fair and competitive system that selects for talent if this kind of ridiculous anomaly happens on a regular basis, then you're a dupe. If, moreover, you think it's a fair and competitive system when nobody even claims it is fair, or competitive, or about talent, then you're a moron of such rare and unique quality that you're basically redefining the word.
After the victory of John Major in 1992, the Sun ran the headline 'IT'S THE SUN WOT WON IT', a line that's since become a sort of mantra in english politics - nobody has won an election since without the support of The Sun.
The second most read is the Daily Mail, another euroskeptic paper. In fact, if you look down the list of papers by readership [1], you can see the euroskeptic press (Telegraph, Mail, Murdoch papers) is almost the entirety of newspapers that are in circulation.
I'm not saying there's some vast conspiracy. I'm just saying that Rupert Murdoch is not a fan of large, big-state regulatory projects, and as a result, his papers (which include the Times, for instance) have followed an anti-EU line. He traditionally takes a very active role in this kind of editorial decision making, and is very public about this fact.
Obviously, the establishment in england are traditionally liberal, internationalist, and the argument for Brexit is a hard sell on pragmatic grounds for obvious reasons - and that's why the vast majority of powerful people were against Brexit, and it took 'outsiders' to push the campaign through.
However, these 'outsiders' were able to do so because they knew the issue sold well with both conservative core demographics and swing voters. And, if you think that your average midlands swing voter would have opinions about supra-national trade standards without some serious narrative building, I have a bridge to sell you.
[1] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/529060/uk-newspaper-mark...
You do have to be careful not to assume forwards causation. The argument that the British people dislike the EU because the successful parts of the press publishes negative stories about it can also be rephrased as, many people dislike the EU and successful newspapers don't ignore that. That is people's views drive newspaper coverage, not the other way around.
if you think that your average midlands swing voter would have opinions about supra-national trade standards without some serious narrative building, I have a bridge to sell you
But if you think the EU is actually only about supra-national trade standards, then I have a bridge to sell you too ;)
If the EU was just a European ISO that issued standards on goods labelling nobody would have ever cared, you're correct. It's obviously nothing even close to that, and very keen on trade standards being even less of what it does in future.
Isn't that exactly the point? Brexit happened because of a referendum where normal people got a vote.
> That is people's views drive newspaper coverage, not the other way around.
I think if this was true, nobody would bother printing them. It's not like they make much money. I'm sure there's an element of organic xenophobia that would make people sympathetic to the EU free movement idea, but I don't think that's enough to create a demand for daily updates on how 'bonkers brussels bureaucrats ban bent bannanas!' (a genuine story).
I don't think anybody ever has picked up a paper because they were dying to get the details about that particular scoop - and honestly, that was one of the most memorable ones.
I can see some grounds on which Euroscepticism was organic in england, but I also have absolutely no doubt that such an idea would never have been successful without the amount of media support it got.
That was over a decade ago yet you remember it and are still talking about it. Obviously that was quite the scoop, which is exactly what newspapers love and how they make money.
A free press loves embarrassing governments by showing them doing stupid stuff. The press in Europe is a mockery of a free press because too many journalists at some point decided that the EU is a morally and ideologically pure vision of the future, so they just stopped reporting on all the bad stuff it does even when it'd make for interesting stories, whilst continuing to do such reports on their local governments. Except in the UK, where parts of the press retained their traditional role.
I think if this was true, nobody would bother printing them. It's not like they make much money.
Left wing super-pro-EU papers often don't indeed. Other papers do make money, plenty enough to justify making them. The Daily Mail made £72 million in profits in 2020 despite COVID. The Guardian bled money and announced job losses.
Social Media did not create division. Internet did not create division. TV did not create division.
They only amplify it. US was divided long before the creation of Internet. That baseline were far higher than other countries. Compared to other countries Internet definitely has its impact, but the baseline was small it isn't as obvious.
Let's put some number into it.
Division Score of US is 100, Internet Usage as a Multiplier, US also has one of the highest Internet usage ( especially with Social Media ) around the world. if you put that as 10. You get a total of 1000.
Division in Country A is 50, Internet usage as 4 ( If you take social media ads revenue split per capita between US and other countries as an indicator ), you have 200.
That is 5x difference.
Now you can start whole blood feuds talking about pineapple on pizza.
As opposed to the US where you're pretty much divided on whether you grew up in the city, suburbs or rural and then again on state. A Californian is wildly different from a Texan, who are again wildly different from a Wisconsonian. The UK is similar with the divide between the north and south of England, the Scots, the Welsh and the Northern Irish.
I think some of it is natural, but it's being amplified with the advent of globalism.
But my point was the people that idolise him online and think they're going to carry out a violent revolution are inevitably the same people that tweet abuse at Adele for losing weight.
It isn't like the LGBTQ+ community was treated well. It was perfectly acceptable to not hire a queer school teacher, nor was it such a bad thing for students to shun a queer classmate. Or you could look at marriage between "races" and the slurs you got from them. A core teaching of a number of churches is to surround yourself with other believers instead of the non-believer next door. And certainly make sure you fit into your gender roles.
Best not to have communist or socialist leanings in the 50's, nor be asian in the US in the 40's. In so many places, it was outright dangerous to have dark skin.
Sometimes you would just accept those around you because that was all you had access to, which is true... so long as they weren't in the wrong group lest you be treated like the minority.
Social media amplifies some bubbles, but it also breaks a few and some things are more difficult to ignore.
The irony of this ahistorical claim is that it comes very close to "Make America great again".
Think about the Vietnam War. The civil rights era. The McCarthy era. The list is almost endless. The Civil War, of course. The US has almost always had major polarization. If anything, the internet reveals what had been hidden by the whitewashed corporate Big Three TV network monopoly, which was itself an historical anomaly.
You know the Pulitzer Prize for journalism? Well, Joseph Pulitzer himself was unapologetically partisan. As was William Randolph Hearst, et al. The whole idea of "objective journalism" is not much more than a naive blip.
Also, yeah, the term yellow journalism refers to Pulitzer's rags. Completely on board with that as well.
https://battlepenguin.com/philosophy/the-fracturing-of-the-h...
Repealed in the 1996 telecom deregulation bill that cleared the way for the internet also took away the responsibility of the media to provide truth in the news.
Instead of charging for use of spectrum, it was given to TV and radio networks but they were required to provide responsible and truthful news.
Maybe that was a good idea ? Perhaps, the old timers knew a thing or two about how to keep an informed public so that democracy would work.
Go ahead and down vote me like usual. But I am not wrong.
I think the internet is only being used as a tool; Peter Turchin says its overproduction of the elites, too many lawyers and managers chasing too few positions leads them to fight more vigorously over a limited turf. It's turf wars gone bitter.
Another ability the internet has allowed is the creation of communities based around the type of information they consumed which always creates echo-chambers like you pointed out.
It's because of this that many have lost sense of the realities of other people and manifests its own distorted reality.
Not to mention, you also have multi-billion dollar companies utilizing algorithms to keep you there as long as possible, further propagating this effect.
Maybe it is social media's fault. Maybe, just maybe, social media and information overload (which reduces critical thought in that moment) is the problem. Nevermind propaganda & conspiracies - just the bubble effects + overloaded conflicting information causes some kind of mental disorder but on a national scale. Too much nonsense being internalize and associated with, on a weekly basis, at some point America will have to ask itself if it is all worth it (social media, 24/7 news & streaming (and not to mention porn and the warping of minds)).
Maybe it is just a result of your political system, that this was always the outcome, because you only have 2 sides. Our world and human life/culture cannot just be boiled down to 2 options. There are so much complexity, nuance and scope context that gets ignored if you are forced to pick 1 of 2 options.
Maybe it is just a result of your economic system & regulations and related social structure & social programs. Maybe, just maybe your people are so badly squeezed to live decent lives (esp when it comes to wages/labour vs the cost of living and your bizarre take on healthcare). Maybe it is the greed and tax system favouring "the already rich". Maybe it is because your political system has too much money flowing through it (much of your political practices are illegal elsewhere).
How can you convince a group of people that they are wrong or doing the wrong thing? When the battlefield is rooted in idealogical is very difficult to convince people otherwise (see religions). Trying to convince the people that invaded your capitol will be fruitless. Punishing them will be fruitless too. Nothing you do will change their minds, cause their minds have been warped to believe in a different reality to what the rest of the world sees.
All I know is that America has a lot of reflecting to do to find/re-find your national identity and to decide if the dragon you've been chasing is the right thing. I truly hope you can find a way without thousands of people dying in civil wars etc (nevermind covid).
- Przeworski
In other words, the core concept of democracy isn't the elections or any of the other trappings, it's the fact that it's possible for one group to lose power, transition to another group and retain the possibility to transition back in a subsequent election to the original group.
I Can't wait for this attitude to inevitably cross the pond.
More surprising is that this protest wasn't a "flash mob" - it was planned and known about publicly for weeks - even promoted by the president. Why were they so unprepared?
Certainly possible that the explanation was "sheer incompetence" in both cases.
Some cops were either in on it, or at least sympathetic. They need to be dragged before Congress next month to answer for their behavior, assuming the republic survives.
https://mobile.twitter.com/sugaspov/status/13469199432380006...
I’m not sure I see anything wrong here?
Is this just crowd flow control in action?
I have no context for where this is and if it’s true but I think you are misrepresenting the above comment.
The Capitol Police seemed to be very ill prepared to deal with events today, which is quite sad given that the protest at least was no surprise.
What makes it particularly unforgivable is that all of this was predictable. Both respectable commentators and shadier internet boards have been talking about this for weeks. For the same city that was ready to cover every step of the Jefferson memorial with armored troops at the hint of a BLM protest to be caught flat footed by the most predictable violence in the past year is inexcusable. Heads need to (metaphorically) roll.
Same with the cops posing for selfies with the protesters, IMO they had to pretend to be friendly because otherwise it'll turn the mob against them. And they (the cops) are outnumbered.
How can things get better unless that happens?
If a prosecution is possible it will be up to Biden as to what to do. At very least I think everything his administration did should be carefully investigated, documented, and put in a museum as a warning.
If he is pardoned he will probably be at war in the state of New York for the rest of his life.
Currently you see many conservatives repeating the meme that losing the Senate means a Republican will never win the White House again. The belief being that Democrats will change voting laws, open borders and amnesty to Dem-leaning immigrants, and possibly even pack the Supreme Court and add DC and Puerto Rico as new states.
On the flip-side, similar sentiments were often expressed on the left of Trump heralding the end of American democracy. Republicans in power would permanently end fair elections through a combination of foreign election interference, gerry-pandering, dark corporate money, and voter suppression.
Disregarding whatever merits these views have, the fact that they're widely held by a significant chunk of the citizenry creates a dangerous equilibrium. Like you say, in a healthy democracy the losing side focuses its energy on winning the next election.
But if you think the other side's gonna use dirty tricks once in power, there is no next election to win. So you go all out it to stop the other side, and start looking for dirty tricks of your own. Now you've justified your opponents' bad opinion of you, and given them even more reason to win by any means unnecessary.
Is there a good argument against this? Apart from “but my side will lose power”.
Given that the existence of the federal district is part of the Constitution, it's arguable that making DC a state requires a constitutional amendment.
You're 100% the way there if you're fine with DC becoming a state.
It just beta the same question: why don't you want DC to be a state? Because it takes power away from your side?
Just avoid the border gore and force Maryland to take the extra land, tax income, and voting population; it'll probably be enough to knock them up a House representative or two anyway.
States aren't allowed to secede, per Lincoln, so operating as a nation is irrelevant. (Texas is special.)
The original US required every state to have access to the ocean, so Colorado and Kansas shouldn't be states.
Of course those 2 senate seats that would certainly be Democratic make this a political non-starter.
In doing some research to formulate an answer, it really is quite striking that the US Constitution is the first of its kind, in that it conceives of a federation of co-equal sovereign states combined under a federal sovereign state. The Federalist Papers explicitly compare the proposed model against the then-existing models of Germany (i.e., Holy Roman Empire), Poland, Switzerland, Netherlands, and then-US. Keep in mind that none of those countries retain their same government form today.
In the Federalist Papers, the Netherlands is explicitly singled out for the problem of the domination of one state (Holland) over all the others, although my understanding of their history is that the state started out that way, so it's not a problem caused by the capital being part of Holland's territory. There are other examples I can think of single-state-dominant confederations (Germany provides a few examples!), but again, I'm hard-pressed to attribute any cause of that to the actual location of the capital.
At the end of the day, I don't think it would be a problem today. However, a lot of that also derives from having 200+ years of case law and custom firmly cementing the roles of federal and constituent state in a federal republic. In 1787, when the Constitution was written, that custom and precedent doesn't exist. When you're arguing that a federal government needs its own locus of power, independent of state authority, and a lot of people fear giving it that power, giving it a territory where no state can reasonably claim to be able to exercise state authority goes a long way to letting that locus of power be truly established.
I like how the possibility of respecting the 2020 status referendum in Puerto Rico instead of continuing to have the island governed by a national government in which they have no vote is considered on the more extreme end of that list.
And the 2017 referendum. And the 2012 referendum.
Three referendums in a decade all advocating for statehood ought to be a pretty clear sign that there is desire for statehood...
The 2012 referendum also had the statehood question effectively boycotted by many people who favored keeping the current status, because selecting "keep the current status" wasn't an option on that question (it was a separate question altogether, where it got 46% of the overall vote). So statehood got something like 61% of the votes of people who voted on the statehood-specific question at all, but only ~46% of the votes cast in the referendum; representing that as a "yes for statehood" is also pretty weird, since that's about the same number of votes that "keep the current status" got, with the remainder presumably favoring one of the other "more-independence" options.
2020 is different and new: it's the first Puerto Rico referendum I have seen where there was a sanely worded "state: yes or no?" question that actually got a majority voting for the "state" option (52.5% or so), with something resembling sane turnout (~55%).
So yes, respecting this is probably a good idea. "Respecting" the 2012 or 2017 results by making Puerto Rico a state would not have made any sense.
Edit: Now that I have read https://senado.pr.gov/Legislations/ps1467-20.pdf page 31 lines 6-15, which define the "no" answer to mean a specific course of action which is not just "don't become a state", I am less happy with this referendum. Now we have to guess at how many people knew what the "no" was defined to mean and voted for what they perceived as the lesser of two evils based on that....
As I understand it in this referendum "yes" referred to "become a state" while "no" referred to "become independent", with no option for "keep the status quo".
The best thing to do would probably a referendum with a ranked/approval voting between all three options.
You understand incorrectly. The question asked was:
“Should Puerto Rico be admitted immediately into the Union as a State? ( ) Yes ( ) No”
- Yes: I demand that the Federal Government immediately recognize the equality of my rights and responsibilities as an American citizen with statehood in permanent union with all the states of the Union.
- No: I reject permanent union with statehood and demand that the Federal Government immediately recognize the sovereignty of Puerto Rico separate from the United States of America with a "Treaty of Independence in Free Association" or with "Total Independence".
Notably, that excludes the status quo as an option. The part right after that says:
In case the statehood "No" ends up as the majority choice, you must
immediately start a process of transition to recognize the sovereignty
of Puerto Rico separate from the United States of America with a
"Treaty of Independence in Free Association" or with "Total
Independence", following the description in this law.
What I don't know is to what extent people actually attached those meanings to the choices and hence whether it affected the vote at all, but defining the "Yes" and "No" answers to that question to have those specific meanings is a bit underhanded and quite unfortunate.Sadly, this doesn't seem to be uncommon. In one city-level referendum I am personally familiar with, both sides of the referendum submitted an argument to be put into the election materials. The "Yes" side (loosen a safety regulation) drastically misrepresented the status quo, implying that there was no safety regulation to begin with, and that their referendum would create it. But in reality, the "Yes" vote would loosen an existing regulation.
How small of a minority should be granted the power to deny the majority a say in their own national government?
Puerto Rico may want statehood, but Turkey also wants to join the EU. In both cases the decision lies in DC or Brussels, not San Juan or Ankara. Puerto Rico may be a protectorate, but I don't think that formally entitles them to Union membership. That being said, if the US refuses to grant them statehood, they should be free to seek sovereignty as an independent nation.
All that aside, my rough estimate is that 90% of the Continental US interest in PR statehood is motivated by political calculus in the Senate and Electoral College. If PR was a red state instead of solid blue, I'd sincerely doubt you'd see statehood regularly discussed at the top of /r/politics.
That's obviously legally dispositive, insofar as those states representatives are who votes in Congress and we are discussing a potential action of the incoming Congressional majority.
> Puerto Rico may want statehood, but Turkey also wants to join the EU.
Turkey, wasn't incorporated into the EU by conquest and then denied voting participation in Union decisionmaking.
> All that aside, my rough estimate is that 90% of the Continental US interest in PR statehood is motivated by political calculus in the Senate and Electoral College.
Probably the majority, at any rate, is political calculus (not just partisan, but also on specific policy issues; and not just the Senate/EC, as the House isn't insignificant.)
But that's always been the case with the causes for (and against) new states. (And why “continental US”, do you really think Hawai’i is an exception here?)
Probably, but that's also been the case for basically every state ever admitted to the union. Remember when the US used to consider whether a state was slave for free before admission?
Even the statehood of Hawaii was politically charged. People genuinely feared the kind of people Hawaiian would send as representatives. Including, but not limited to Communists and anti-segregationists.
Alaska was opposed on the grounds that it would be a welfare state and that it would add a bunch of democrats to Congress.
It is an open secret that they will do all of these things given the opportunity. There's probably one or two D senators in the way of that right now.
I'm too cynical to believe that these aren't favored in part because they would help their chances are re-election, but it's also not necessary, as a republican government and a majority of republican state legislatures could not stop the entire federal government flipping democrat.
1. The democratic platform endorses "restructuring" (packing) of the lower courts.
2. A large number of democrats including Kamala Harris have endorsed court packing or other schemes to change the balance of the supreme court. Joe Biden refused to tell the american public what he thinks about court packing. He later promised to create a commission to study court packing.
3. Chuck Schumer has made it a priority to eliminate the legislative filibuster so they can pass laws with 51 votes instead of 60.
4. Democrats believe the senate unfairly benefits republicans. They want to make D.C. and Puerto Rico into states to give them an advantage. Some democrats want to make states out of every american territory. This would lock republicans out of the senate permanently.
They will do all of these things given the opportunity. Republicans are already pretty fucked due to demographic change, but democrats very openly want a one party state.
https://reason.com/volokh/2020/09/19/regardless-of-what-trum...
https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/202...
Also, my question wasn’t whether you believe that’s what the Democrats want. Of course the Democrats want it to be a one party state. Everyone wants their side to win.
My question was whether you believe if Joe Manchin was more liberal (for example) that by 2020 we would have two more states, a packed judiciary, etc. Because that is GP’s point. That this election is not an existential threat to either party.
>My question was whether you believe if Joe Manchin was more liberal (for example) that by 2020 we would have two more states, a packed judiciary, etc.
It's a simple matter of whether they have the votes to do it. All they need is a simple majority to accomplish all of the things I listed. You said it yourself - everybody wants to have a one party state, right? So who, besides Joe Manchin and perhaps Kyrsten Sinema stands in the way of adding new states, abolishing the filibuster, packing the courts, or any other part of the democrat agenda?
There are no shortage of voices for these things. Where are the voices against them?
If Joe Biden, who is supposed to be some kind of moderate, can't tell the American public whether he's for or against packing the supreme court, what does that say about the state of the democratic party?
It's highly unlikely that the US becomes a one party state, but instead, the politics of the two parties changes. The most obvious change being that the republicans stop being the party of racists? They can easily draw more votes from minority conservatives if they drop the racism
>The most obvious change being that the republicans stop being the party of racists?
Democrats are the party of anti-white and anti-asian racists.
Republicans are very popular. Maybe not quite as popular as the Democrats. Does that give the Democrats a license to take over the federal government? I don't think so. And it wouldn't matter how many votes the democrats get, all people have a right to self determination first and foremost. Living as a permanent political minority is tyranny.
Political parties were quite literally decried by the founders and as we have now almost completely been polarized in a two-party system we have reached this level of disfunction.
This is unacceptable and both parties have been responsible for shutting out third-party candidates.
All people are subject to the rule of law of the land, whether you think it is just or unjust. You have the right to vote for whoever you want but you don't have a right to do whatever you want. Democrats haven't taken over the federal government. They were voted into office, just as several republicans/whigs/federalists/anti-federalists/literally whoever.
This is the process. This is the reality. This is America.
Choosing to reject both the facts and reality doesn't change this.
When I talking about democrats taking over the federal government, I am talking about court packing, senate packing (by adding states), and other tactics to establish they will use to establish a permanent majority. I am not talking about the recent election.
The person I replied to seems to think that all those things are justified because the democrats are more popular than the republicans.
I have no idea what you are talking about with regard to political parties or choosing to reject facts. I assume you didn't actually read the thread so you took what I said out of context.
All of these things are pure partisan powergrabs - and many democratic commentators aren't shy about it either.
> You are quite clearly advocating not just against the rule of law but also against the democratic process.
You are quite clearly immersed in the state cult and our "sacred democracy", ignoring keep ideas like balance of power that our nation was built on.
As for the cult comment, the visible cult is quite literally the group who is incapable of accepting reality and I'm not going bother trying to engage with someone who is incapable of engaging in reality.
Yes, it literally does.
Both Democrat and Republican Parties have consistently agreed that it does, via the constitution and law-setting, even where it is against the best interests of most people.
You can't make this argument against Democrats, unless you are making it against the Republicans in 2017-2019. Neither of the two political parties are as yet a permanent minority.
If that does happen, such that the Democrats start to consistently get 2/3 of the vote or 2/3 of each chamber (which doesn't look likely), then the dominating Democrats will likely split into two parties.
The choice of electoral system entrenches a two-party state; but, it doesn't say that one of those two parties necessarily has to be the Republicans.
It's not like we would really end up with a one party Democratic state, to begin with the party isn't cohesive enough for that to be terribly meaningful, and then you'd also get explicit divisions around issues, not more and more agreement.
(abolishing the Senate would make the Federal government a lot spicier, but the Senate is much more sclerotic and ossified than it is staid)
But I just don't understand how losing an election that was looked over by members of your own party, and won by similar margins which you won by previously, can be this controversial. Let alone the fact that the party still did really well in all the other ballots including house and senate.
this all stems from videos, witness statements, and statistical anomalies that suggest the election wasn't conducted properly; and the refusal of certain parts of the government to effectively examine these claims and their supporting evidence in a public and transparent manner. You've still got people claiming there was no evidence, even after videos emerged of ballot counting without the legal requirements and of people employing sleight-of-hand to remove a thumb drive from a counting location. These incidents may or may not be significant enough to change the outcome of the election but when they don't appear to be taken seriously and investigated properly, it creates the impression that some people aren't very concerned with election integrity.
I can obviously not cover every single one, but just seeing a random van and claiming it's full of fake ballots doesn't make it true. In many of these states, the entire counting was livestreamed.
> witness statements
Anyone can give statements, but election fraud requires more than just hearsay.
> and statistical anomalies
Numbers are easy to play with, see p-Hacking. In the majority of the cases, if you apply the same calculations to previous elections, or hell, even red counties in this very same election, you get very similar strange looking results.
> refusal of certain parts of the government to effectively examine these claims and their supporting evidence in a public
Just because you've been told that it wasn't taken seriously doesn't make it true. Courts have gone through the evidence for 2 months and none of it went anywhere. But for some people, being proved wrong means not being taken seriously.
I'd like to have the VA thumb drive handoff and the GA under-the-table ballot stash explained please.
> In many of these states, the entire counting was livestreamed.
Some of these videos purportedly show poll workers scanning the same ballot multiple times.
> Anyone can give statements, but election fraud requires more than just hearsay.
There are lots of sworn first-person statements, which aren't hearsay. Also fraud requires evidence of intent. Its much easier to show that serious, legitimate questions can be raised about enough ballots to sway the outcome than to prove why observers were prevented from observing.
> Numbers are easy to play with, see p-Hacking. In the majority of the cases, if you apply the same calculations to previous elections, or hell, even red counties in this very same election, you get very similar strange looking results.
Can you link me to those majority of cases? Quality of the statistical arguments varies widely and only the non persuasive arguments seem to have been responded to.
> Just because you've been told that it wasn't taken seriously doesn't make it true.
In a situation like this, demonstrating that the concerns are being taken seriously is more important than actually taking them seriously. The apparent legitimacy of the President is likely to have more of an effect on everything than who the president is, at this point. When these allegations aren't seen to be taken seriously it creates the appearance of illegitimacy, regardless of the facts.
> Courts have gone through the evidence for 2 months and none of it went anywhere.
Actually many of these cases never reached the stage of preventing evidence. And 2 months ago there hadn't been enough time to investigate and we were already being told that it had been debunked. So its not enough to do whatever they have done, it is necessary for it to be known that they have done what is correct.
> But for some people, being proved wrong means not being taken seriously.
Can you show me some of these claims "being proved wrong"? Thats a stronger claim than there not being evidence and if you could substantiate this it might help reach some people.
You seem reasonable, and I promise I am not attacking you. I am just at a loss. I have to imagine you see that article or ones like it, but you are not satisfied by the explanation. So then what can I do to satisfy you that the claims of fraud have been addressed? What standard of proof do you need, and what guarantee do I have that you won’t shift the goalpost once I meet it?
I’m not saying you, personally, will shift the goalpost, but my discussions with those who are already convinced their is fraud is that no amount of evidence is sufficient. There will always be another “but what about.” That’s why this 11th hour demand for an audit by Sen. Cruz, Loeffler, et al is exhausting. Of course I don’t want election fraud, even if finding it means Biden loses. But after two months of courts looking into it, AG Barr refuting it, state legislatures refuting it, and more, I’d say it’s been pretty well looked at. At this point, is an audit really the difference between you feeling satisfied and not?
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fulton-county-georgia-no-my...
It doesn't really explain anything, it just reports some things people said.
> It took me literally 2 minutes to find it. Did you look for such explanations yourself before asking?
Indeed I did, and I took the further step of considering whether the allegations of fraud were responded to persuasively, and I saw they were not.
> So then what can I do to satisfy you that the claims of fraud have been addressed?
An investigator's report is the usual way of satisfying the public as to the results of an investigation.
> What standard of proof do you need, and what guarantee do I have that you won’t shift the goalpost once I meet it?
The same standard that would be applied to any other criminal investigation with similar consequences. When someone who is implicated in an activity offers an explanation, attempt to verify that explanation. Document this process. When someone makes a claim ("these are normal ballots that were removed and staged for expedited processing") attempt to verify the chain of custody on the ballots.
As far as shifting the goalposts, there isn't really a way for me to guarantee that to you. You'll just have to take the risk that you're wasting your time and update your opinion of me if/when that happens, or decline to risk your precious time proving something to a stranger on the internet. Its a personal decision, there is no right or wrong here :)
> I’m not saying you, personally, will shift the goalpost, but my discussions with those who are already convinced their is fraud is that no amount of evidence is sufficient.
I empathize and I'm certain there are people out there. Surely you would also agree that there are people out there who are goal-oriented and partisan enough that they would condone election fraud in order to replace trump?
> There will always be another “but what about.”
Thats true but if you acknowledge the possibility of having reasonable questions then you can't dismiss the reasonable questions on the basis of someone else's unreasonable questions.
> That’s why this 11th hour demand for an audit by Sen. Cruz, Loeffler, et al is exhausting.
The shit is fucking exhausting but people have been making accusations and pursuing legal remedies for 2+ months and its clear that its not exactly easy to challenge the integrity of an election regardless of the amount of evidence. We've been hearing that these allegations are "debunked" since before there was an investigation. People say there's nothing to them but they can't provide any evidence to respond to the allegations except testimony by persons who are implicated. We can't get a simple chain of custody on ~9,000 ballots that appeared from under a table in the middle of the night when no (R) observers were present, and the people there dispute the process by which the obervers were removed from the room. If someone doesn't understand that the results of an election can be changed by adding illegal/fraudulent ballots then they don't understand elections well enough.
> Of course I don’t want election fraud, even if finding it means Biden loses.
Honestly ask yourself why you care election integrity. Now consider whether election integrity can be meaningfully decoupled from the appearance of election integrity in this context.
> But after two months of courts looking into it, AG Barr refuting it, state legislatures refuting it, and more, I’d say it’s been pretty well looked at.
I mean, that's probably because you're satisfied with the outcome and you question all the allegations of improprieties. Which is fine. But have you considered whether AG Barr, some state legislatures, etc. have done anything that might alleviate the concerns of someone who feels differently? The scope of effort required to debunk something for someone who doesn't believe it is far less than the scope of effort required to debunk something for someone who does believe it. In this case, the latter standard is the one that should prevail for obvious reasons.
> https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fulton-county-georgia-no-my...
Mostly just repeats the claims of various parties without making efforts to substantiate them. We already know the people involved disagree about the details of what happened, that's why there needs to be a chain of custody for those ballots. That way we are less reliant on the word of partisans.
I saw your fellow conspiracy theorists's YouTube analysis of the "thumbdrive hand-off". It's not even clear it's a thumbdrive in her hand. And the logic leap is incredible. How does this "hand-off" mean election fraud? Did you watch another video of someone on the Internet saying "It means this, it can mean this", etc, and if so, why hasn't it been investigated?
https://medium.com/curiouserinstitute/a-game-designers-analy...
Do you think this is a good way of persuading people to question themselves?
> I saw your fellow conspiracy theorists's YouTube analysis of the "thumbdrive hand-off".
I'm not sure I appreciate being associated with whoever but thank you for watching the video.
> It's not even clear it's a thumbdrive in her hand.
Ok, perhaps. What else was she attempting to steal from the election building?
> And the logic leap is incredible. How does this "hand-off" mean election fraud?
For some reason, votes are stored on removable storage media. There's no incredible leap of logic to understand that sneaking one of these drives out and modifying it or losing it without affecting the chain of custody or being seen would be a component of vote fraud. This appears to be that, therefore when someone asks for video evidence that suggests there might have been vote fraud, here is an example. But if you don't care about election integrity then its probably super boring anyway so don't fret yourself.
> Did you watch another video of someone on the Internet saying "It means this, it can mean this", etc, and if so, why hasn't it been investigated?
No, its pretty obvious what the logical implications are. And I don't know why it hasn't been investigated, probably because the voting system isn't even set up to defend against this type of fraud.
thanks for the link, very interesting.
Here’s a video[1]. Of course from your perspective, your position makes perfect sense and isn’t extreme, and by no means am I calling you a white supremacist, but you should watch and see if you relate in any way. Please don’t dismiss it out of hand, there’s valuable lessons in it that apply to everyone, not just former white supremacists.
Have you considered pretending for a moment that my perspective is valid instead of dismissing me like this? I'm aware that we still disagree, that's because of a variety of factors including the fact that we both, as humans, suffer from cognitive biases. But assuming that I can't be reasoned with merely because you've been unable to respond to my arguments isn't getting either of us closer to understanding each other.
> We could argue about the specifics all day, but I think you should ask yourself why you want it to be true.
I don't want it to be true, I don't want any of this crap to be true, the candidates we had are horrible (not speaking ill of Professor Jorgenson, mind you). I'd prefer that there was a reasonable explanation but the problem with this where there's evidence that raises suspicions but no reasonable response is that the losing side feels disenfranchised and that's bad for the country. We want everyone to feel as though their voice was heard.
> Do you seek community?
No I have a decent social life.
> Are you angry inside and need an outlet?
No, I'm fine.
> Of course from your perspective, your position makes perfect sense and isn’t extreme,
Thanks for the video, watching it now.
Maybe you’re in a position where you do believe him. His rhetoric is such that if you believe him, he tries to get you to believe only him, sowing distrust in news organisations and election officials.
I think another problem is it’s very hard to disprove a negative. For example, prove that there isn’t a spy satellite orbiting earth. You can always say “well what about that other satellite, what about this area of space?”. It’s unknowable, and therefore comes down to who you trust. If you look up Trump’s factual inaccuracies so far, unless you already have, then you’ll have a clearer picture on which to base your trust.
No further than I can throw him, he's ridiculous.
> So when he says there’s election fraud, I don’t believe him.
Thats fair. What are your priors on election fraud in general? Do you think it happens or nah?
> I think another problem is it’s very hard to disprove a negative.
I agree, the system is not set up in order to demonstrate election integrity. Everything is on the basis of trust. So we get this scenario where things look like fraud, but can't be proven to be fraudulent because no one is trying to prevent or catch fraud, and then when people have reasonable suspicions because of this, people say "this is normal" and "you can't prove fraud happened" but when you point out things that suggest fraud may have occurred, there's no way to disprove that.
> It’s unknowable, and therefore comes down to who you trust.
Well that's kind of the point, I don't trust people I don't know. I don't trust people to be honest when no one is looking. I don't trust vote fraudsters to be honest about their behavior. And I think its foolish to expect that they would be.
> If you look up Trump’s factual inaccuracies so far, unless you already have, then you’ll have a clearer picture on which to base your trust.
This doesn't rely on trump's trustworthiness (or lack thereof), but publicly available evidence and the public record.
It doesn't take much fraud to swing an election and, aside from 2020, both 1960 and 2000 are suspect. The main thing is that how would you know if there was election fraud? There would be some evidence. You might see poll workers acting strangely around ballots. You might have ballots without a proper chain of custody. You might have reports by poll watchers that they weren't allowed to do their jobs. Well, all of those are present. So we have reason to suspect there might have been vote fraud. Its that simple.
> That’s very interesting, why don’t you trust people to be honest?
Because they are capable of dishonesty so there's no reason to assume they are trustworthy. The same reason I lock my door at night and use long passwords on my accounts.
> I personally believe in the good of people, that >90% of people are good people who want to do the right thing.
My understanding of human nature leads me to consider that naive. Please don't take offense, I'm just being forthright.
> So when people without skin in the game or anti-Biden people say there was no election fraud, I trust them.
Thats a different kind of error, how would those people be in a position to know if there was fraud?
> This is why I believe Raffensperger. But I’d be very interested to hear why you don’t trust people you don’t know?
Because they haven't earned my trust. They haven't shown any reason to be trustworthy. People lie and cheat all the time. Sometimes they even lie, cheat, and steal when its easier and more productive to be honest. Since people lie cheat and steal, if you show me a person, I'm going to be aware of their potential to lie, cheat, and steal. Its that simple.
If someone seriously posts "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" I'm going to associate them with 9/11 truthers.
> Ok, perhaps. What else was she attempting to steal from the election building?
You (or the allegers) are just creating a narrative that's convenient for you/them! And filling in the details. We don't even see them leave the building!
Here's another one: the lady on the left gave the other one her car keys, and the girl and guy were about to sneak off to the carpark to make out. Or, it was a bag of weed, and they're about to go to the back of the building and get high.
Did you even confirm how the votes are stored? There are boxes with United States Postal Service in the background. So surely they're counting mail ballots. There are no computers on the desks, so, it doesn't seem the results of the counted mail ballots are being stored digitally. Do these 3 look like master hackers, or is it so easy to tamper with the digital files that it's plausible anyone (including many in republican areas) could do it, but you've only "caught" these 3 doing it?
If you ask for a video that supposedly reveals something about 9/11, and someone posts a video that fulfills your request, you are not then entitled to consider the person who responded to you as "9/11 truther." That would be ridiculous.
> You (or the allegers) are just creating a narrative that's convenient for you/them! And filling in the details. We don't even see them leave the building!
What do you think it would look like for someone to violate the chain of custody of a thumb drive on camera?
> Here's another one: the lady on the left gave the other one her car keys, and the girl and guy were about to sneak off to the carpark to make out. Or, it was a bag of weed, and they're about to go to the back of the building and get high.
None of those require or suggest the behavior seen in the video.
> Did you even confirm how the votes are stored? There are boxes with United States Postal Service in the background. So surely they're counting mail ballots. There are no computers on the desks, so, it doesn't seem the results of the counted mail ballots are being stored digitally.
Actually lots of voting machines read the ballot and record the result onto digital media.
> Do these 3 look like master hackers, or is it so easy to tamper with the digital files that it's plausible anyone (including many in republican areas) could do it
In fact its so easy that up until very recently lots of mainstream orgs (like the NYT!) were sounding the alarm.
> but you've only "caught" these 3 doing it?
Well first people said there was no evidence, now you're saying there must be more evidence or this doesn't count?
What! And how can you say the behaviors in the video is inconclusive proof of voter fraud!?! Or at least suggest voter fraud?!
Where's even the thumb drive? You've managed to see things from a few pixels and what commentators are saying what it is. What if I tell you, that's a bag of weed. Can you see a bag of weed? What, no? Can you see a thumbdrive? I can't!
> Actually lots of voting machines read the ballot and record the result onto digital media.
So... this lady, who looks like her job is to sit there and count mail ballots, also has access to the voting machines (which is nowhere to be seen near her in the video), and is allowed to have custody of the results for who knows how long, while she does other work? These assumptions would mean such lax security, that then sure, rampant voter fraud is possible. Next you and the entire fraud-founding Internet commenters will want to see the security procedures of the whole voting operation and that are to your satisfaction. I don't have all the facts and can't deny that maybe they are that mind-numbingly lax (in which case, as a supporter of a US government based on sanity rather than nutjob conspiracy theories, I would be worried that rampant and easy voter fraud benefiting Republicans happened), but don't you think there would have been Republican party officials who have actually reviewed said procedures and who would've said "Hey, why are you letting random people have custody of the digital results?".
Yeah, when votes are stored on digital media, an apparent attempt to surreptitiously remove a thumb drive from a place where votes are counted suggests an attempt at compromising the election.
> So... this lady, who looks like her job is to sit there and count mail ballots, also has access to the voting machines (which is nowhere to be seen near her in the video), and is allowed to have custody of the results for who knows how long, while she does other work? These assumptions would mean such lax security, that then sure, rampant voter fraud is possible.
Those aren't really necessary assumptions but I'm glad you can see how its evident that its possible to have enough voter fraud to affect results.
> Next you and the entire fraud-founding Internet commenters will want to see the security procedures of the whole voting operation and that are to your satisfaction.
Yes that's what we want, any guesses on whether any of this will be better next time?
> (in which case, as a supporter of a US government based on sanity rather than nutjob conspiracy theories, I would be worried that rampant and easy voter fraud benefiting Republicans happened)
You should probably decouple your vote fraud concerns from your partisan concerns because comments like this suggest that vote fraud is worse when it benefits one party than the other and that's not the case. Vote fraud is bad because it violates the integrity of the election and because it threatens the legitimacy of the government.
> but don't you think there would have been Republican party officials who have actually reviewed said procedures and who would've said "Hey, why are you letting random people have custody of the digital results?".
The point of the sleight of hand is to remove the drive without the chain of custody documents reflecting that fact. A review of the procedure wouldn't show the conduct displayed in the video, that's the point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aokNwKx7gM8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etx0k1nLn78
And this third one just shows how much of a joke some of the claims in the lawsuits are:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ua5aOFi-DKs
Like, this is basic high school level statistics they can't even get right.
I can't find any information about "the VA thumb drive handoff". Do you mean this event [0] in Wisconsin? And I assume you're referring to this non-event [1], which the Georgia Secretary of State stated in a swore affidavit did not represent an opportunity for voter fraud based on continuous security camera footage.
[0] https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/17/facebook-p...
[1] https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fulton-county-georgia-no-my...
[0]
> And I assume you're referring to this non-event [1], which the Georgia Secretary of State stated in a swore affidavit did not represent an opportunity for voter fraud based on continuous security camera footage.
Well that's great, someone should tell the GA SOS to release the chain of custody for those ballots. If its so easy to demonstrate that the ballots (that were hidden under a table and counted after everyone else left) are legitimate, then just release that evidence instead of asking people to trust your word.
[0]https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/12/04/that-is-some-handof...
That is flat-out not true. Hearsay refers to whether or not the witness actually witnessed the event they are referring to, or is merely recounting what someone told them about the event. Some of the "sworn first-person statements" have the person literally swearing that they heard someone say something, which is literally hearsay. I haven't combed through every piece of evidence in every case, but a lot of "sworn first-person statements" basically amounted to hearsay or other statements that could not legally be sustained as evidence.
> Actually many of these cases never reached the stage of preventing evidence.
The first set of cases did reach that stage, and were often rejected because the evidence they did present was insufficient to sustain allegations.
> In a situation like this, demonstrating that the concerns are being taken seriously is more important than actually taking them seriously. The apparent legitimacy of the President is likely to have more of an effect on everything than who the president is, at this point. When these allegations aren't seen to be taken seriously it creates the appearance of illegitimacy, regardless of the facts.
Here's the problem. The people who are alleging this conspiracy--first and foremost Trump himself--are unwilling to sustain any evidence to the contrary. The Trump campaign and affiliates have lost 62 lawsuits in the past two months (and that's not counting subsequent losses on appeal). The legal theories in the most recent lawsuits start making pro se sovereign citizen bullshit look sane. Hell, Michigan has already filed a motion to impose sanctions on the lawyers for making these claims, which is a rare step.
And where did that get us? They're calling Mike Pence a traitor for not exercising unilateral authority to miscount the electoral votes--an authority that he does not have (read the 12th Amendment for yourself; it's not a long document). For the first time in 230 years, a mob has broken into Congress to commit sedition [1] to prevent the election of the next president. Not even in 1861, when the treasonous South objected to Lincoln's presidency, did this happen.
Why? It's not because we didn't demonstrate the concerns were being taken seriously. It's because way too many people were willing to indulge a delusional conspiracy theory that was ungrounded in truth, and to pretend that frivolous lawsuits that were clearly contrary to all prior precedent fanned [2] that delusion.
[1] 18 USC §2384: If two or more persons in any State or Territory [...] conspire to [...] by force to prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of any law of the United States, [...] they shall each be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than twenty years, or both.
The mob that broke into the Capitol is unquestionably guilty of the crime of sedition.
[2] I have read several of the lawsuits and their briefs. I actually left a detailed comment about the Texas v Pennsylvania case when it was first filed, explaining 6 different reasons for SCOTUS to toss the case that didn't even address the merits at all.
It actually is true that there are "lots of sworn first-person statements, which aren't hearsay." This isn't to say there are none that are hearsay.
> I haven't combed through every piece of evidence in every case, but a lot of "sworn first-person statements" basically amounted to hearsay or other statements that could not legally be sustained as evidence.
Right, and we could ignore them and talk about the ones where people testify to things that happened to them or in their presence but its much easier to respond to evidence you don't like by ignoring it and debunking "evidence" that's easy to respond to.
> The first set of cases did reach that stage
I'm not sure what you're referring to as "the first set of cases" but many of the cases were dismissed before evidence was heard. That means you can't faithfully dismiss the evidence on the basis of a dismissed court case because the court never looked at the evidence.
> The people who are alleging this conspiracy--first and foremost Trump himself--are unwilling to sustain any evidence to the contrary.
I disagree and if you could present evidence to the contrary we could perhaps resolve this.
> The Trump campaign and affiliates have lost 62 lawsuits in the past two months (and that's not counting subsequent losses on appeal).
Refer to my statement above. Most of those never even examined the evidence.
> For the first time in 230 years, a mob has broken into Congress
Its not that big of a deal, the last time a mob broke into congress was 2018.
> has broken into Congress to commit sedition
Actually they are trying (in vain) to avoid disenfranchisement. Or if you prefer not to appear to take a position on the object-level issue, its merely a "mostly peaceful protest."
> Why? It's not because we didn't demonstrate the concerns were being taken seriously.
that most certainly is why.
> It's because way too many people were willing to indulge a delusional conspiracy theory that was ungrounded in truth, and to pretend that frivolous lawsuits that were clearly contrary to all prior precedent fanned [2] that delusion.
I like how you compared the idea that people might cheat in an election to a delusion, when people cheat in elections all the time and its probably more properly considered delusional when someone insists (without evidence) that there was no fraud and all these people asserting fraud on the basis of evidence are delusional.
> If two or more persons in any State or Territory [...] conspire to [...] by force to prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of any law of the United States, [...] they shall each be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than twenty years, or both.
Would that apply to conspiracy to violate election law?
They broke the law. They committed sedition--I copy-pasted the actual definition of the law. It doesn't matter why they were trying to break law, they still violated the law. They ignored all proper legal avenues to take the law into their own lands. You cannot in good faith ever claim to support the rule of law if you support what they did.
Let me put it like this: if I were to kill the President, I would be a murderer. It doesn't matter if I think he's a deranged nutcase whose continued presidency would irrevocably damage the country: I would still be committing first-degree murder, and will still deserve nothing less than to suffer the full consequences of that crime.
> Would that apply to conspiracy to violate election law?
There are only 51 electoral vote certificates for the 2020 presidential election. There were only ever 51 electoral vote certificates. Some cosplayers did pretend to make electoral vote certificates to compete against, but cosplaying an electoral vote does not meet the legal requirements to create a valid electoral vote certificate. Congress's job is to count those electoral vote certificates. 3 USC §15 lays out what Congress was supposed to do yesterday. There is nothing that they did that would violate their actions.
I'm not going to respond to all of your points because my blood pressure can't take this, but I will close out with this comment: what happened yesterday is the electoral equivalent of lynching. Even if you think it is justified, it is still an extralegal attempt by a mob to execute their will, damning the due process of anyone they come across.
This presumes that your perspective on the alleged fraud is factually correct. If we don't presume the facts of the matter one way or the other, it looks like they may have been petitioning their government for redress.
> Let me put it like this: if I were to kill the President, I would be a murderer. It doesn't matter if I think he's a deranged nutcase whose continued presidency would irrevocably damage the country: I would still be committing first-degree murder
I think the same argument applies to vote fraud. It doesn't matter how much you hate the president (or think him incompetent, or whatever), vote fraud is vote fraud.
> Some cosplayers did pretend to make electoral vote certificates to compete against, but cosplaying an electoral vote does not meet the legal requirements to create a valid electoral vote certificate.
So they are trying to prevent the cosplayers from successfully impersonating actual electors.
> I'm not going to respond to all of your points because my blood pressure can't take this, but I will close out with this comment: what happened yesterday is the electoral equivalent of lynching.
Thats hyperbolic and undemocratic.
> Even if you think it is justified, it is still an extralegal attempt by a mob to execute their will, damning the due process of anyone they come across.
Yeah I didn't support their actions but its kind of like the protests last summer: riots are the language of the unheard.
The cosplayers are the people who pretended to be the Republican electors in the states of Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, despite failing to meet the statutory requirements of meeting in the appointed place, having the vote signed by the respective Secretary of State, and having the vote receipt submitted to the National Archives.
In other words, these are people whose actions as purported electors are not legitimate. It is as if I were to put on a shirt with the word "POLICE" on it and print out a badge that had the same word of it--it doesn't actually make me a police officer, merely someone cosplaying a police officer. (Although as electors are not public officials, they are unlikely to run afoul of any laws, unless there is some fraud statute that is broad enough to cover this).
Their actions did not have the force of law. The seditionous mob who wanted to stop the electoral count are the people who want to install cosplayers as electors in flagrant violation of the law.
> Thats hyperbolic and undemocratic.
A lynching is a mob taking it upon themselves to murder someone in response to an alleged crime in an extralegal attempt to achieve justice, completely in violation of all due process. What happened yesterday was a mob taking it upon themselves to overturn the lawful results of the election in response to an alleged crime in an extralegal attempt to achieve justice, completely in violation of all due process. That is the antithesis of rule of law; it is not hyperbolic or undemocratic to draw that comparison.
We've already seen that failure to meet statutory requirements is not sufficient to disqualify an election, elector, or ballot. Otherwise PA would have gone to trump because of the backdated postmarks.
> In other words, these are people whose actions as purported electors are not legitimate.
According to you. Other people feel that these are the legitimate electors. Since legitimacy is a social construct and not a physical phenomenon, there is no objective answer.
> It is as if I were to put on a shirt with the word "POLICE" on it and print out a badge that had the same word of it--it doesn't actually make me a police officer, merely someone cosplaying a police officer.
Likewise, if the result of an election is altered due to ballot stuffing and other forms of compromise, the apparent victor is not legitimate, but a cosplayer.
> What happened yesterday was a mob taking it upon themselves to overturn the lawful results of the election in response to an alleged crime in an extralegal attempt to achieve justice, completely in violation of all due process.
Yes that's your opinion. If you refrain from assuming your own opinion about unknown facts to be automatically correct, then you can see how they may have felt themselves to be members of the public who were petitioning their government or performatively airing grievances just like their antifa/blm counterparts have been doing for years.
Videos appear and then are explained but it doesn't matter because there is always a shadowy conspiracy.
https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/misplac...
Release of an investigation report would go a long way to quiet these claims.
> https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/misplac...
Wouldn't display for some reason.
I have yet to see any strong evidence that the election wasn't conducted properly.
I have see a lot of people on HN make vague statements along the lines of "there are things that suggest that some shady things may have taken place".
Every one of these statements was unsourced, and carried a general subtext that any claim of fraud automatically deserved attention and belief, no matter how little evidence was provided, and that the burden on proof should lie on people refuting these claims.
I usually want to assume good faith, but this is really hard here. You obviously can't say "Bill Gates sent assassins kill my parents" and, when ask with any evidence that Gates did this or that your parents are even dead, complain that people aren't taking the Bill Gates threat seriously enough. The burden of proof is on you for making extraordinary claims. The claims of widespread fraud should require extraordinary evidence as well, and there really hasn't been any.
Well have you seen any evidence at all? What evidence would you expect to see and where have you looked?
> I have see a lot of people on HN make vague statements along the lines of "there are things that suggest that some shady things may have taken place". Every one of these statements was unsourced, and carried a general subtext that any claim of fraud automatically deserved attention and belief, no matter how little evidence was provided, and that the burden on proof should lie on people refuting these claims.
Why didn't they just link to [0]?
> The burden of proof is on you for making extraordinary claims. The claims of widespread fraud should require extraordinary evidence as well, and there really hasn't been any.
Well I think its extraordinary to claim (without evidence) that an adversarial process with high stakes and poor process controls was not corrupted.
[0] https://apelbaum.wordpress.com/2020/12/03/the-georgia-ballot...
Perhaps you're right and this is a sign that democracy is fundamentally broken. If people aren't able to understand that many forms of election compromise (e.g. ballot stuffing) are indistinguishable from a normal election without properly respected controls and audits.
> but mere allegations that they were doing anything unusual.
There are allegations coupled with evidence to support them, which is what is necessary to make an accusation that can be investigated.
Thus why trump got to keep his presidency in 2016
Maybe faith in the process should be shaken, but a volatile transition period isn't the time. I have full faith that the election process has a moderately low fraud rate, below any amount that would change the outcome. Even so, the peaceful transition of power is more important than any particular mechanism. If any of the parties involved would like to raise a court case actually alleging fraud (which is why the cases have been dismissed: because they failed to do so, and anything short of this would have no remedy), an investigation would be in order. But it appears that fifty-seven cases have been filed, finding 108 votes whose signatures were improperly validated.
So what, exactly, is the problem here? It seems like you're raising concerns of things that could have happened, without any actual weight behind them that they did happen. It's meaningless.
I doubt that its correct to allow someone to take office under the cloud of illegitimacy because of our fears of "volatility." The best thing for stability is clearly to what is necessary to ensure that the elections are both secure and known to be secure.
> I have full faith that the election process has a moderately low fraud rate, below any amount that would change the outcome.
The problem is that people with an interest in subverting the process see your faith as an asset. You have faith in elections, good. We need to demonstrate election security to people who do not share your faith.
> Even so, the peaceful transition of power is more important than any particular mechanism.
I think that making sure anyone in power is actually legitimate is probably more important than that.
> If any of the parties involved would like to raise a court case actually alleging fraud (which is why the cases have been dismissed
Many were dismissed for procedural grounds or lack of standing; additionally proving fraud requires proving intent, which is not easy.
> because they failed to do so, and anything short of this would have no remedy
Thats another problem, one shouldn't need to prove the state of mind of a hostile party in order to demonstrate that an election was corrupted.
> an investigation would be in order.
There are open investigations. Despite this, some people insist that we coronate their preferred candidate without seeing what law enforcement is able to discover.
> So what, exactly, is the problem here? It seems like you're raising concerns of things that could have happened, without any actual weight behind them that they did happen. It's meaningless.
I'm not sure what you're asking. There's a video of poll workers counting ballots that had been hidden under a table until all the R observers had left. No one has presented a chain of custody for those ballots. The people who may have stuffed the ballot box with questionable ballots say they didn't. There's an open investigation, so they won't release any evidence that would show that these ballots are legitimate (assuming they would even be able to prove that); but that doesn't stop the investigator from making a sworn statement that nothing happened; naturally there was no supporting evidence.
> without any actual weight behind them that they did happen
I'm saying it happened and its on video. I don't think the excuse "ballot stuffing is how we normally win elections" is going to de-escalate the situation.
Anyone who is dissatisfied with this election should logically be dissatisfied with every election, so should pick their battles wisely and attempt to fix the system such that their concerns are possible to alleviate. Raising concerns with this election in particular makes it seem as if this election was in any way exceptional, which except for the candidates, it was not. It's equally concerning whether the 2016 election was legitimate. Or 2012. Or 2008. Or...
There is absolutely no tracability on ballots, by design, at this stage. There is no way to prove who voted for whom, due to abuses of this knowledge in the past. There is no proof that can be provided at this point that the election was "legitimate", whatever standard of proof that requires. To provide such proof would require a change to the entire electoral system, and absolutely cannot be done retroactively.
The accusation of election fraud requires intent because fraud requires intent. The successful performance of election fraud usually involves not conveying your intent to defraud because then people wouldn't trust your role in the election.
> There is absolutely no tracability on ballots, by design, at this stage.
Yes, this is why its suspicious that people staged ballots by removing their envelopes, then hid them under a table and waited until the (R) observers had left. So if its known and understood that no one is able to prove that those ballots had a legitimate chain of custody then how are they debunking the allegation that fraud occurred? It sounds like you're saying that the way the system is set up, its not possible to prove that the election was legitimate.
> Anyone who is dissatisfied with this election would be impossible to satisfy.
Right after you point out that it was designed in a way that would be impossible to verify, you say this.
Where I disagree with your argument is that this is fundamentally the cause of what has transcended in DC.
You say that Trump lawsuits have been dismissed instead of evidence being entertained, but if according to his own lawyers there is no allegation of fraud, what exactly do you expect? Why would anyone then believe that his other lawsuits are actually trying to resolve anomalies instead of being political smoke and mirrors to point his base to?
Similarly, it is simply inconceivable that there was sufficient fraud for a "landslide" Trump victory. It has absolutely no basis in fact. Yet this is exactly what Trump is preaching to whomever is willing to listen.
The reason people are storming the capitol is not because there are too few investigations, or because fraud has occurred. The exact same rhetoric and lies that Trump is employing right now would have just the same effect if there had been precisely zero cases and zero entertainable evidence of fraud.
> I fundamentally agree with you that perception of this issue is just as important, and that the applebaum link is reasonably interpreted as fraud occurring.
I appreciate this.
> Where I disagree with your argument is that this is fundamentally the cause of what has transcended in DC.
Thats reasonable and in my opinion its too early (for me anyway) to understand fundamental causes at this time.
> You say that Trump lawsuits have been dismissed instead of evidence being entertained, but if according to his own lawyers there is no allegation of fraud, what exactly do you expect?
This is a good question and it gets into the types of election compromise and legal definition. My understanding is that (legally) fraud requires intent, and they didn't have evidence of intent. In civil election cases, (again my understanding as a layman) they are supposed to show that the number of votes that can be questioned is greater than the apparent margin of victory. So about the fraud thing, they didn't make the accusation in court because it wasn't necessary and couldn't be supported to the legal standard. But here in a normal conversation we can kind of assume that if election integrity was compromised in order to boost one candidate over another, it was intentional and call it fraud. Even though challenging the results in court might not involve alleging fraud.
> Why would anyone then believe that his other lawsuits are actually trying to resolve anomalies instead of being political smoke and mirrors to point his base to?
Its reasonable to suspect that these lawsuits are intended to rile the base and lack legal merit. I'm only really concerned with the sworn affidavits filed by observers that allege they were prevented from doing their jobs. A regular poll worker assumes a lot of liability for doing this, with questionable benefit. And if people are filing false affidavits to help trump with his propaganda, that needs to be investigated and the responsible parties need to be charged. Filing a false affidavit with the court is perjury.
> Similarly, it is simply inconceivable that there was sufficient fraud for a "landslide" Trump victory.
Its fine for you to have that as a prior but with strong words like "inconceivable" you should have some solid arguments as well.
> The reason people are storming the capitol is not because there are too few investigations, or because fraud has occurred. The exact same rhetoric and lies that Trump is employing right now would have just the same effect if there had been precisely zero cases and zero entertainable evidence of fraud.
I disagree, trump's rhetoric works precisely because there is enough reasonable evidence to call into question your perspective on election integrity, and people are upset that it's being ignored.
It is clear to me that Trump and his surroundings have no qualms about fabricating "truths" in whatever quantity fitting whatever narrative to match their aims. This has been the playbook from day 1, see [0]. It appears to work regardless of any underlying facts.
I fully admit that I am not privy to the perspective of and influences on Trump supporters at large and capitol stormers in particular. However, the idea that there is a meaningful bar of evidence to clear before his supporters buy into his statements appears largely unfounded to me. Otherwise our current reality would be incompatible with [0].
And let me be perfectly clear that virtually every human will believe a convenient "truth" at some point or another. But given the degree to which Trump's entire sphere of influence has supported any outlandish, nonsensical or downright contradictory thought he expresses, I do not see how election integrity measures would have moved the needle in this regard. (Which is not to dismiss the need for them, just their influence on this attack).
[0]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-claim...
This is how politics has been for a while. Trump just adopting the winning strategy employed by Obama, Bush, Clinton, etc.
> I fully admit that I am not privy to the perspective of and influences on Trump supporters at large and capitol stormers in particular. However, the idea that there is a meaningful bar of evidence to clear before his supporters buy into his statements appears largely unfounded to me.
Yeah, people usually presume things they like to be valid, the same way they accept news media and blog posts uncritically when they agree with them. Its definitely part of the human condition and not anything significantly different among the different partisans these days.
> And let me be perfectly clear that virtually every human will believe a convenient "truth" at some point or another. But given the degree to which Trump's entire sphere of influence has supported any outlandish, nonsensical or downright contradictory thought he expresses, I do not see how election integrity measures would have moved the needle in this regard. (Which is not to dismiss the need for them, just their influence on this attack).
I'll just point out that there's a lot more diversity of opinion about trump on the right than you're aware of, which is normal. I hear the same shit from people on the right about people on the left.
> [0]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-claim...
Yeah, he's a politician. This is no different than Pres. Obama "you can keep your insurance if you like it", "You didn't build that", "I'm going to close Guantanamo Bay", etc. You can say that t told more whoppers, I'm not interested in disputing that. Politicians lie, if you're going to hold one accountable then you need to be consistent. But holding politicians to their word doesn't really get much traction, its always seen as partisan.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/opinion/jeff-flake-trump-...
Amendment 25 - Section 4: Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Edit: oh and the 25th amendment would allow trump to object and be effectively tried in the senate. That amendment is really designed more for “the president is in a coma” than for “the president is currently trying to overthrow the government”.
Another Mueller would take forever to prepare a case for the American people.
Surely that would qualify as "armed", and the "rioter" I would hope should be self-evident.
Highly doubt that it was an armed protester shooting.
Did you get that from the same place that you got the idea that the election was stolen?
Seems more likely than an unarmed protestor shooting?
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/06/us/washington-dc-pro...
* Man carrying a Glock and zipties: https://twitter.com/JasonRCharter/status/1347030226845446144...
Man carrying a Glock? I don't see anything resembling a gun except on his hat.
I'm not clear on whether that means the vote could extend past January 20th and the end result is that it goes on his permanent record.
It's not going to happen, but not due to time constraints.
The bar for when incitement to violence loses its constitutionally-protected status is "incitement to imminent lawless act" (from Brandenburg v Ohio). Trump's speech earlier today probably qualifies as passing that bar. That is clearly an impeachable offense.
Ilhan Omar is apparently already writing up Articles of Impeachment: https://twitter.com/IlhanMN/status/1346934098384793606
But this is the end of play time. It's a real world consequence. And a shocking one at that. It was a violent attempt to take over the seat of power and prevent the democratic transfer of power.
It's not a play coup anymore. Trump and his supporters are an attempting an honest to goodness actual coup. He needs to face consequences. IMHO, impeachment isn't enough. More like he can peacefully hand over power or Jan 20th 12:01 PM put him on a plane to Guantanamo until such time it's safe to try him for treason.
It sucks.
This is what sibling commenter meant by stop with the both-sidesism. Smashing up a Target and murdering a person are not the same thing. You're apologizing for murderers, congratulations.
All in all, there are much more pressing concerns facing the USA right now than the unimportant fallout from the election, although you'd never know it from turning on the news right now.
People say it was his Tweets but they were censored...
So much value in splitting hairs.
I said "incited a mob to literally attack." He went up on stage, told them the presidency was being stolen, and urged them to march to the Capitol.
They then marched to the Capitol and literally attacked.
But thanks! Good to know all these accusations are just fake news. Just as I assumed. He did tell them to “go home” though... but most fake news media won’t report that.
A couple thousand of them using bombs/weapons could cause massive amounts of continuous long-term damage. Guerilla warfare, as we've come to find out over the past 50 years, is nearly unwinnable. It would manifest as The Troubles American Edition.
McVeigh, John Brown, Bin Laden, Eric Rudolph, Kaczynski, are all the classic extremist that's willing to do whatever it takes to right what they perceive as an injustice.
Where would storming the Capitol slot in on the spectrum?
To the downvoter, surely you don't think this is as bad as it can get.
That's the argument for removing him.
We can pretty easily imagine what riots getting larger might look like. You very obviously are not thinking about what a sociopathic president coming more and more unwrapped might look like.
The strategy of not provoking the bear didn't work. The bear is provoked and attacked. Now is not the time to play dead and hope it gets bored. This bear will not get bored. This bear will happily feast, satisfied that the prey didn't put up a fight.
I think that's part of what's at stake.
Imo, the only way to deal with someone like him is to go scorched earth.
What edge haven't they gone over already? From my reading of TD [dot] win they are 100% already there. What is being suggested is akin to negotiating with terrorists.
Just maintain order and wait it out.
If there's some kind of crime that's been committed and it can be prosecuted successfully, then by all means after he's out of office. I don't think that's the case though.
Impeachment actually does things other express disappointment.
25 or die!
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/06/politics/pence-national-guard...
I'd really like to hear from anyone who believes this, to present a cogent argument. I promise not to attack. I want to hear the argument from the other side. I also beseech the rest of HN to please refrain from attacking anyone who is doing so.
We need to restore trust in the system. An idiot needs to be able to understand and audit it. Until that happens, there will always be people who think it's rigged, and politicians will always exploit that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidentia...
> About 19,000 ballots were spoiled because of overvotes (two votes in the same race), compared to 3000 in 1996.[18]:215–221 According to a 2001 study in the American Political Science Review, the voting errors caused by the butterfly ballot cost Gore the election: "Had PBC used a ballot format in the presidential race that did not lead to systematic biased voting errors, our findings suggest that, other things equal, Al Gore would have won a majority of the officially certified votes in Florida."
And yet the protests then were level-headed, largely peaceful, and fully justifiable.
I don't think this election was stolen, but in 2004, I did think there were oddities which were swept under the rug.
This is mostly not true. See https://ballotpedia.org/Voting_methods_and_equipment_by_stat... . Almost every state produces a voter-readable paper trail for all votes.
The voting machines produce a paper ballot, which can be recounted and audited.
The elections were fine.
100% of the issue is derived from Trump's attempt to sow doubt, and of course, his enablers.
Just saying fraud doesn't exist doesn't help calm the outrage of those who believe it was stolen. Also based on how partisan the impeachment was it is likely people don't trust the government to have any sense of accuracy and merely attribute it to partisan lines.
The strategy of acknowledging what someone says and then responding to it often calms down difficult interpersonal conflicts. I think the same applies here.
We understand you believe "A", we do not believe that because of proof "B".
Instead the approach taken is largely ad hominem's which only escalate things further.
1) You can't reason yourself out of a position that you didn't reason yourself into. They don't care that the data is bad, they care that it supports their worldview.
2) The folowing remains true now as it did more than 70 years ago: “Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.”
― Jean-Paul Sartre
I went through three or four of the statistical analyses that purported to show the election results were practically impossible.
They were trivially junk. E.g. one compared the voting rate in 2020 and 2016 but used votes to registered voters in 2020 but votes to eligible voters in 2016.
The others were similarly laughable, but no body cared when I posted this.
Others says it better than I can, but the people who believe this stuff believe it because they want to, not because it makes sense. Facts and reason didn’t get them to this point and facts and reason isn’t going to pull them back.
Heck, it's difficult to even find the original court documentation for many cases. I find news articles, but I want the source material, so that I can talk about it to others without any reporters coloring the court cases, especially as I talk about these court cases with other people who think there is loads of legitimate evidence.
So... if you can help me search for it, or find it, I would really appreciate it.
There are. One sent me to this [1] resource earlier. I do not endorse this source, and have not manually verified their claims myself.
If anyone else would like to check the source, that would be good, I intend to manually check their claims myself later, but don't have time now.
[1] https://hereistheevidence.com/
Edit: I would ask anyone checking the source to not use the tool that the source provides, for obvious reasons.
Also, we should probably see if the datasets provided are available elsewhere.
At work currently, so haven't really looked at it. Probably will tonight, maybe make a post refuting it.
I may or may not get around to it, but I could see it being worthwhile.
People are reading a website like this because they are looking for confirmation of what they already feel must be true.
I partially just want something to link to if I happen to see it linked in the wild again, it rubs me the wrong way to see it uncontested in a conversation.
I figure that at least that way new people aren't getting sucked in when they click thinking "Well, I should check the other sides view."
Like the possibility of a truth is all they need to believe in it. And then shifting goal posts.
Also consider that 45 is not the typical poor defendant, who cannot afford adequate representation in court. He is (theoretically) a billionaire, and can afford $1K/hour constitutional law experts.
The fact that 45 and his crack team of lawyers (more like, "on crack", right?) have failed so completely tells you there just is no actual evidence there.
The difference between parties was not insignificant. In other election cycles you had much lower differences but the other party conceded to the process ( looking at 2000).
So this whole thing is, IMO, predicated on one side simply refusing to admit defeat.
A man who tried to run for mayor in Hawthorne is among two people charged in a voter fraud case in which thousands of fraudulent voter registration applications were allegedly submitted on behalf of homeless people, the Los Angeles County District Attorney's Office announced Tuesday.
It doesn't even allege that any votes were submitted, the article was published Nov 17 so the investigation must have been going on for months.
Clicked on #237: Posted confidential voter information on website - https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/elections/20_gen_ab_ev_re...
That's the official website for Washoe County and the page is a voter turnout report so yeah obviously it's evidence of fraud (/sarcasm).
#356: Count the fraudalent [sic] ballots https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eH3FpIy3TE&feature=youtu.be
It's just a youtube video of voting officials talking at a desk or something.
That website is evidence of nothing more than someone with too much time on their hands and ideology to push.
I'm kinda regretting wasting everyone's time now.
I should point out there is a substantial amount of evidence that there is no notable voter fraud. This evidence helps justify not wasting more time and giving oxygen to this conspiracy.
"It's just a youtube video of voting officials talking at a desk or something."
The discussion they're having at the desk is about fraud. It's a vote counting operation. The counting volunteers say they found a pile of ballots with identical signatures and the woman running the vote is telling them to ignore it because it's not their role to flag this or investigate it. In a vote audit.
The video description text has a transcript of what's going on.
The female counter asks, “So when we’re done with the audit, there’s still the opportunity to challenge the fact that we have multiple ballots with the very same signature?” she asks. “I don’t know if ‘challenge’ is the right word,” the SOS official says ... “And again, we know that you have a concern with this precinct,” she tells them, explaining, “That’s not your role at this very moment,”
A video of counting volunteers discussing fraud they detected and being explicitly told to drop it is very far from "just talking at a desk or something".
unfortunately, like i suspect many here, i'm not particularly inclined to spend time going thru them, particular the ~30% of those that link to youtube and twitter accounts.
Brandolini's law, aka the bullshit asymmetry principle comes to mind - "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than to produce it."
There simply is no reality based reason to believe that the election was stolen, certainly not in any consistently logical belief system (e.g. the 2016 Electoral College results were almost exactly the same in the opposite direction).
If there were evidence of a stolen election, then Trump would have won a number of court cases from one of the MANY judges, mostly ... well, conservative, to use a label ... that he placed his cases in front of.
Anyone can look at these cases and have an understanding of the actual evidence presented, and see, objectively, that there was not significant election or voter tampering, and definitely not significant enough to change the election.
I'm far more concerned about attempts to make it harder to vote before the election - the one drop box per county in TX, for example, then I am that any election was stolen.
But I will say: it's almost impossible to prove an election has been stolen after the fact with mail-in ballots. Once the outer envelope is removed and destroyed, the ballot is irreversibly anonymous. It's impossible to tell if an anonymous ballot is fraudulent or not -- there's no ability to audit it by contacting the voter.
Mail-in ballots are particularly vulnerable to fraud, something the New York Times correctly worried about back before Trump.[1]. And we just had more mail-in ballots than ever before thanks to Covid.
HN has long been suspicious of voting systems; we all know how often systems are hacked by bad actors. I don't think it's a stretch to think that election tampering is possible, particularly in close elections.
1. https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/07/us/politics/as-more-vote-...
This is mischaracterization of the article.
1. The title that shows up in the browser bar (the HTML <title>) is: "As More Vote by Mail, Faulty Ballots Could Impact Elections".
2. The title as shown on the page is "Error and Fraud at Issue as Absentee Voting Rises". So, clearly, the article speaks about both fraudulent and faulty ballots. In my view, the article is not well organized. The two ideas are too fluidly mixed.
So, with this context in mind, let's discuss two paragraphs from the article:
In 2008, 18 percent of the votes in the nine states likely to decide this
year’s presidential election were cast by mail. That number will almost
certainly rise this year, and voters in two-thirds of the states have already
begun casting absentee ballots. In four Western states, voting by mail is the
exclusive or dominant way to cast a ballot.
The trend will probably result in more uncounted votes, and it increases the
potential for fraud. While fraud in voting by mail is far less common than
innocent errors, it is vastly more prevalent than the in-person voting fraud
that has attracted far more attention, election administrators say.
Yes, the article says "voting by mail [...] increases the potential for fraud". However, how often is this an important factor? How often does it affect election results? From what I understand, the overall fraud rate from in-person voting is so low, that even a doubling of that rate is negligible.** Except, of course, in extremely close races.
No identification requirements, same-day registration, no signature verification, no chain of custody requirements, completely irreversible and unauditable ballots... Partisans have created a system designed for abuse and now are incredulous that anyone question the results.
You’ve effectively deleted the server logs, claimed your system is perfect and impenetrable, and are now asking anyone with questions to prove otherwise.
I'm all for auditable, verifiable processes, paper trails and all of that. Thankfully election security officials do work on that! But the people standing up to claim massive fraud are not claiming that because they have evidence, it's because they lost and they are pissed off about it. What they are proposing for remedies is to just throw the whole process out and declare Donald Trump won. Interestingly, they are not challenging any Senate results (Georgia TBD), House results, or even local results.
People are claiming massive fraud because of complete lies. They aren't claiming "something might be fishy here, let's check, recount, etc." Because we did that. All of the swing states recounted their votes, some twice, by hand. They went into the signature verification, observation process, the whole show. No, instead, the crazies go right to the rails and the people who yell the loudest are out there right now showing us exactly what they think of the US Constitution, the law, and this whole process.
This gives you a rough estimate of voter fraud of having an impact of <0.01% of the election results. The tightest race this year was 0.25% margin--that's a full 20× a reasonable upper bound on the incidence of voter fraud. Fraud doesn't change election results.
On the flip side, some of what you claim about--particularly ID rules--has a real disenfranchising effect on people. Having valid ID isn't an issue if you're someone who drives, but if you're someone who is physically incapable of driving and can't get a driver's license, well, obtaining that ID can be quite difficult. (Even getting a driver's license in my state requires going to a particular building in the hours of 9-5 M-F--sucks if you have an hourly job you can't get time off to get an ID!)
A lot of the rest of what you complain about... [citation needed]. The complaints I've seen about signature verification aren't about requiring a signature on the ballot, it's about requiring a second signature (IIRC, unrelated to you!) to "witness" you doing the ballot yourself. In all the states I'm aware of, the voter is still required to sign the ballot themselves.
What State has you personally sign your ballot?
Every state that does mail-in voting at all requires a signature. Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Missouri also require a witness -- Missisipi requires a notary.
How many people actually exist in this country that have no form of ID? You need it for even getting various utilities in some areas (maybe all?)
Further, why can’t we fix this issue? If it takes 3 hours to get the ID then compensate hourly workers to get it and pass a law requiring jobs to allow time for such a thing. Why because it’s difficult for some we give up on the entire idea of requiring IDs?
I don't have hard statistics, but for the photo ID usually advocated for, that number is going to be something like 5-10%.
> Further, why can’t we fix this issue? If it takes 3 hours to get the ID then compensate hourly workers to get it and pass a law requiring jobs to allow time for such a thing. Why because it’s difficult for some we give up on the entire idea of requiring IDs?
I would have no problem supporting voter ID laws if the issue of the difficulty of obtaining voter ID were addressed. However, my experience is that nearly every politician who advocates for voter ID laws is unwilling to address these measures, because their real goal is usually to disenfranchise voters who will vote for the opponent.
This is the crux of the issue. I think there should be a constitutional amendment not only guaranteeing every citizen (felony convinction, in jail, or not!) not only the right to vote, but also requires them to vote. There should be a federal department in charge of finding you and collecting your vote. Too much politics is about getting people alternately mad, apathetic, or lazy, and we need to stop that.
Don't assume people in power want to fix the issue. After the Voting Rights Act was gutted in 2013, states began shutting down DMV locations where IDs are issued. In Alabama, 31 of 67 locations were shut down, primarily in Black parts of the state. This was done specifically to disenfranchise voters, and was done in conjunction with pushes for Voter ID laws.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/23/us/politics/voting-rights...
https://www.aclu.org/blog/voting-rights/voting-rights-act/al...
†I did have a photo provincial health card, but oddly enough, it's legally not considered a valid government ID in many contexts. I also had a passport but I had let it expire and didn't renew it for a while. Even when I did renew it, I would not carry my passport around with me, so it would not count as day-to-day photo ID. I have since acquired a provincial photo ID card, which looks like a license, but is a different colour and doesn't permit you to drive (Duh!) These weren't available til a few years ago.
What was the final delta in GA? 11k votes or so? Are you sure it is impossible to move the needle when there are these razor thin margins?
I don’t know so I’m asking.
So now you have to move the goalposts to saying that there was massive voter fraud in every battleground state.
Let's be clear, every state certified their votes. This includes states with republican leadership. And every court case brought against the election results has failed.
Even if you accept the idea that in many ways it is difficult or impossible to audit the results (I don't agree), the only evidence that has been presented against the result are absurd conspiracy theories and patent falsehoods as well as testimony from people with an axe to grind.
In other cases we have seen (Gore) there was an actually agreed upon issue. Hanging chads on the ballots were real and verifiable. This is not the case today.
Also let us be clear that this has not happened before. It is not before the current administration that "massive voter fraud" has entered the conversation. It was presented in 2016 despite Trumps win (amusing). It is presented now for no other reason than to distract, raise money, and serve the fragile ego of the President.
To there could have been fraud but not enough to win a state
To, ok, maybe one state but not enough states
No dude. No amount of potential fraud is acceptable.
My point is quite clearly that not only are the allegations being made about the election results being invalid are absurd but that even if you accept parts of it unless you accept all of it it doesn’t even have an impact on the outcome.
I'm still on the lack of evidence fence but I'm seriously leaning toward the side of "Thou dost protest too much" when the response isn't the most gruelingly painful enumeration of every detail of the process to the rest of the country.
You can throw all your numerical arguments about why it shouldn't matter at me that you want. I'm not buying it.
This is the simplest god blessed process to automate. It's literally a counter. There should not be anywhere near as much opportunity for controversy or hell, even something to hide!
The tech behind it should be absolutely boring, and yet, no reckoning. No public release of auditable source code, or machine images.
I don't give a damn who won. I give a damn that someone questioned it, and heaven and hell were not moved in an attempt to answer the question.
Not trying to Gish Gallop mind, I just think the integrity of the system is important enough to warrant keeping the process transparent and dirt simple enough, your State should be able to account for it to the rest of the nation. Voting is not a joke, and I don't even like entertaining the possibility that some irregularities could even exist to explain.
The appearance of impropriety is assumed to be impropriety by half the viewers. Unless proven otherwise.
Isn't it the case that when votes are hand counted they match pretty darn close the "machine without auditable source code" results? As someone from outside the US the entire US election process seems like a sad joke but I guess those machines were bought under some sort of commercial contract from some sort of private company and presumably as part of that deal the source code isn't available to the public. But it seems that when the machine says X won and you like X then it's great and when it says Y won and you don't like Y then it's a faulty/irregular process? Is "someone questioned it" really a bar? Isn't there always someone who will question everything?
I'm sure the tech behind the machines that count the votes is actually quite boring. Next time you vote for someone I guess make sure you vote for someone who is going to stipulate in the contract that the source code is available to the public? Is that gonna shut up the people yelling conspiracy?
This must mean that no in person votes should count at all!
Fewer (and similarly with Bush’s — both filed a number of lawsuits in the 2000 election), but then, the legal basis of the cases was different.
Its not really anyone outside of the Trump campaign’s (and their legal team’s) fault that the Trump campaign filed an unusually large number of lawsuits making claims that were not justiciable, independently of whether the claimed facts were true.
The Trump campaign filed several lawsuits prior to the election challenging various election procedures--which is how it's supposed to be done--and found mixed success, sometimes winning, sometimes losing. After an election, there is very little legal recourse--even Bush v Gore made it clear that challenging election procedures should be done before an election without very good reason. In the case of 2000, those challenges were largely about various recount provisions, and even then, these were filed very quickly. But in 2020, a lot of the cases weren't filed until previous ones had failed (laches! laches!), and even tried the novel legal theory of arguing the entire election should be thrown out because of a challenge to long-enacted laws (laches! laches!). The lawyers involved changed too--the competent conservative lawyers didn't want to sign on to Trump's crazy legal theories, but Trump apparently decided to not listen to anyone who told him he had no remaining viable recourse.
It is worth pointing out that the defendants in one of the suits have filed a motion to impose sanctions on Trump's lawyers. Amusingly, they ask for a fine of all the money raised for the legal suits, although they are unlikely to get it.
Further, very few information sources are truly factual, and without bias?
This statement presents a false dichotomy. I could also say that no measurement of the temperature in Phoenix, AZ is "truly" accurate. However, they are accurate enough for our purposes.
To take it a step further, we can combine sources. We can use reasoning about the sources in how we combine them. These sort of study and technique is meta-analysis.
I don’t disagree that human communication is often an oxymoron, simply because of how bodies work. Until we get perfect brain-to-brain data transfer, we’ll always have to go through this messy mismatch between my perceptions and your perceptions.
And "this is where our model breaks down, maybe {big bang singularity, big bounce, etc} happened before it"
The big Bang (fast inflationary persiod in the early universe) is not one of those things? To my knowledge its well measured?
The engineering mindset tends not to care about the provenance of a model, only whether it's useful for a goal. We don't care about the why,unless the why is required for something we're trying to do
I vote in every election. There are problems with many elections, especially ones for US President. Those problems are baked into the system we've established as a nation. States run their own elections. States elect US Presidents and not citizens.
I don't think states could coordinate a conspiracy to change citizen votes to steer elections one way or another. Too many moving parts, too many people. It is fair one state has one set of rules that differ from another? Yes. It is the way the USA is built.
It frustrates me to no end that a group of people say, "The election had no issues" just as it frustrates me when someone says, "The election was stolen." Those thoughts are always perpetuated by those who lead political parties.
tactical AND strategic.
I think this is a strawman. Can you find me a source of a prominent* Democrat that said that this election had no issues? Most of the time, people who support the election's outcome mean that there was no fraud significant enough to change the outcome, or that this election had less fraud/was more secure than a previous election.
On the other hand, when Trump says the election was stolen [1] (along with some Congressional Republicans), he means that the outcome should have been him winning.
*Prominent being: US Senator, US Representative, Secretary of State, state election official, state governor, DNC leadership.
[1] https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/13469288825958850...
I don't think the election had no issues, and few would claim so. Let's start with: Where the hell is my federal election holiday? And it just goes downhill from there.
All of it has been on a scale that wouldn't affect the outcome of elections. For example in Georgia 2 ballots were submitted in the names of dead people. In Colorado they are investigating non-matching signatures on a few hundred ballots.
This kind of stuff is routine, and happens in every election. Of course it isn't perfect, but its a decent enough system that has worked well in 100s of countries across centuries
I've seen countless videos of people taking the analysis done by some charlatan on Youtube, then applying the exact same calculation to a bunch of other Republican counties and getting the exact same anomalies.
I see people saying there isn’t evidence of wide-spread fraud sufficient to overturn the results of the election.
There do seem to be a lot of people making the mistake of trying to cast this as black and white, totally fraudulent or totally perfect. But that never made sense.
(Edit: typo)
That way the listener doesn't automatically correctly categorized their point of view as nuttery, but is drawn into listening longer out of decorum. And the speaker doesn't suffer a loss of reasonableness for "wanting the truth".
Are you saying you agree or disagree with my statement?
For example: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/76278182654903091...
Not that it matters, but if you're going to try to call someone out or discredit them, try not to in the same stroke do the same thing.
concern trolling: the action or practice of disingenuously
expressing concern about an issue in order to undermine or
derail genuine discussion. (from Oxford Languages via Google)You used quotes, but what you quoted is not a quote from me, nor anyone earlier in the thread.
Also, I didn't write "wise".
Yes. This rhetoric can be used for all kinds of purposes, whether well-intentioned, altruistic, noble or selfish, corrupt, deceitful and so on.
It seems to me this phrase fits the bill for a "thought-terminating cliché". [1] Do you agree?
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thought-terminating_cliché
I don't follow your logic.
Here's the context. x86_64Ubuntu wrote:
> Coming out and saying that you think the election stolen gets you labeled a conservative nutter. So wise commenters won't say that, instead they will do what you've noted. Imply that folks are saying the election was perfect, and then say that they think there might have been some "imperfections" going on. > > That way the listener doesn't automatically correctly categorized their point of view as nuttery, but is drawn into listening longer out of decorum. And the speaker doesn't suffer a loss of reasonableness for "wanting the truth".
In response, I wrote:
> Yes, this is part of a known playbook for people who want to seem credible while stoking fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
In doing so, I pointed out a pattern that involves a rhetorical technique.
With this context, perhaps you can explain what you mean by "try not to in the same stroke do the same thing?"
With the kebashed context in mind, I think I was in a sense pointing out the perceived (on my part) dehumanization of the hypothetical speaker who could just genuinely be someone with concerns who simply desires additional scrutiny or scrutiny, closer to the topic at hand.
I apologize for the misunderstanding. Teaches me to post from the hip.
The closest thing to a widespread problem is voter suppression, where states administer elections in regionally uneven ways to suppress one party's turnout. This is predominately against black citizens in the south after Shelby v Holder.
>The closest thing to a widespread problem is voter suppression, where states administer elections in regionally uneven ways to suppress one party's turnout. This is predominately against black citizens in the south after Shelby v Holder.
I agree with you 100% but that just means every election is illegitimate.
> We don't identify voters and we removed chain of custody on ballots.
Source? Voters are identified by signature (and in some places voter ID). Re: chain of custody, as far as I'm aware, states generally require representatives from both major parties (plus independents) to be present when ballots are moved or opened. Since states generally have the power to conduct their elections as they deem appropriate, finding a national source is impossible, but I invite you to find me an example where such a chain of custody was violated.
Mail-in-ballots do not subvert this chain of custody [1].
> Instead we put unsecured boxes on street corners to collect ballots and put them in the mail.
Drop boxes are locked with keys and are monitored with video surveillance. Sometimes, people set fire to ballot boxes, but when this happens security is tightened [2] [3]. In any case, the small number of ballots damaged by arson would not change the outcome of an election.
> We eliminated signature validation.
This is not true. Give us a source. The closest thing to "eliminating signature validation" is giving voters the chance to fix signatures [4]. "Eliminating signature validation" is a false claim that Trump has spread [5].
> I have no idea who got the most legitimate votes, but neither does anyone else.
The fact is Biden got the most legitimate votes. End of story. Any other claim is refusing to accept the overwhelming evidence that there was no significant fraud. That's not to say that the vote count is accurate, but all evidence shows that any inaccuracies would not have changed the outcome of the election.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/article/fact-checking-mail-in-voting...
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/us/elections/in-boston-so...
[3] https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/20/us/trump-biden-elect...
[4] https://apnews.com/article/pennsylvania-election-2020-pittsb...
[5] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/08/11/trumps-la...
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/pennsylvania-court-...
Your link about mail in ballots says they are secure because of measures like signature validation, except we got rid of that.
Not that it should matter, but I'm not a Trump supporter. He is a war criminal as far as I'm concerned.
I was not accurate, but you were also not accurate. Pennsylvania did not "get rid" of signature verification for absentee voting; it never had signature validation in the first place. States have the power to hold elections in the manner of their choosing, and of the last 28 years, Republicans had trifecta control of the legislature for twelve [1]. They had the full power to amend the election code as they saw fit, but they chose not to.
In any case, the absence of signature validation still does not prove fraud. The purpose of signature validation is to "prove" is the person who cast the ballot is the person who registered to vote. To take advantage of a lack of signature validation, an attacker would have to:
1. Find people who are registered to vote, but who don't intend to vote -- even in person.
2. Acquire their ballot by either:
2-a. Re-register them under a new address controlled by the adversary (which notifies the voter).
2-b. Steal their ballot from their mailbox (and the voter may become suspicious if they don't get a ballot).
3. Fill out their ballot and mail it in.
Steps 1 and 2 each very difficult to do without raising suspicion. Step 3 is nearly impossible to do by a single person for a large number of votes. The vote difference in Pennsylvania was 81660 votes. So if Biden had 81661 fraudulent votes, then Trump should be the winner.
Let's assume that if more than a hundred people notice that their ballots were missing/voter registration changed, then there would be an investigation and the attacker would be exposed. In other words, the attacker must flip ~80,000 votes, while only alerting suspicion 100 times. Their success rate per ballot must be therefore greater than (1 - 81661 / 100) = 99.878%. A thousand? That would still require a success rate of 98.775% per ballot.
How many reports are there of missing ballots in Pennsylvania? I can't even find one person claiming such a thing, much less a hundred or a thousand.
[1] https://ballotpedia.org/Party_control_of_Pennsylvania_state_...
Two simple examples: If I were a ballot harvester I could fill in any blanks that someone left on their ballot. If I were a postal worker I could just lose some mail if someone had the wrong sign in their yard.
So given the above, do you believe that 50 people each independently decided to create 1,600 votes for Biden? Or 100 people each independently created 800 votes? A thousand people each created 80? 80,000 each created one?
Remember again that all of these people have near zero incentive to commit voter fraud. Each person would also have to keep their secret and not brag -- something very hard for most humans to do.
> If I were a ballot harvester I could fill in any blanks that someone left on their ballot.
Ballot harvesting is illegal in PA [1]. Also, ballots envelopes are generally sealed by the voter and election workers would notice if a seal is broken and not count the vote [2].
[1] https://www.publicsource.org/what-is-ballot-harvesting-and-w...
[2] https://6abc.com/naked-ballots-pennsylvania-pa-voting-in/696...
> If I were a postal worker I could just lose some mail if someone had the wrong sign in their yard.
Ballots are tracked, and then the postal worker would rely on the voter not checking the status of their ballot. If there is a pattern, then the postal worker would likely be arrested or fined, so in all likelihood each postal worker could only "lose" one or two ballots.
>Remember again that all of these people have near zero incentive to commit voter fraud.
The stakes are control over the most powerful government in the history of the planet being on your team vs the other team. And literally Hitler Putin puppet/Communist dementia man was on the ballot. The stakes couldn't be higher.
>Ballots are tracked, and then the postal worker would rely on the voter not checking the status of their ballot. If there is a pattern, then the postal worker would likely be arrested or fined, so in all likelihood each postal worker could only "lose" one or two ballots.
Your understanding of average human behavior is very different than mine.
I promise you postal workers are well aware of the implications of losing mail, and especially losing ballots. Postal workers have been prosecuted for dumping mail and ballots in the past, and I'm sure the USPS reinforces the severity of such a crime in their trainings.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdny/pr/postal-worker-arrested-...
Just because they're legal doesn't make them less bad.
One difference here is that everything I need to know to vote for someone is public record. Your name, address, political affiliation, whether or not you have voted in recent elections, etc. are all public record. Your credit card information is not.
2. You only get to vote once. Unlike credit cards.
The comparison is such an insane false analogy as to render the rest of your comment meaningless.
You clearly have no clue how the system actually works if you think that comparison is reasonable at all. Go read up on why voting is secure instead of Googling more doggrel that fits your confirmation bias.
I agree there is a risk that bad actors could exploit this vulnerability, but there is also a risk purging voters prevents legitimate voters. That is especially concerning when the purges come from a government controlled by one party in an area heavily populated by voters of another party.
So it is not cut and dried. There are reasonable arguments on both sides, but my personally calculation is it is less likely someone gets away with finding people who have moved and casting votes on their behalf. It is more likely that a bunch of politicians purge voting rolls in districts that lean the other direction. Especially as we have 150 years of evidence of the latter but few examples of the former.
I think that may have been after just a few years of not being able to purge voters due to lawsuits from the ACLU, so there is definitely a big enough pool of registered voters who are likely no longer living in that state to potentially swing elections at least some of the time. If I remember rightly, some recent key swing states have a lot of outward migration compared to the victory margins.
No, that definitely is fraud.
I mean, just think about it: this is completely impractical. To "steal" any one election you need to swing thousands of ballots. Each box holds a few dozen ballots at a time at most. You'd be talking about a huge crime spree to manage to collect and resubmit all those ballots.
And yet... we've never seen it happen. The simple truth is that stealing elections doesn't happen because it's too expensive vs. just winning elections with more persuasive arguments.
Everyone, every state, every side, every ideologue should be jumping up and down for 100% transparency. and if anyone saying we really have that they are a liar.
So when you say "transparency", in the absence of any proof of real fraud, is what other people hear as "suppression". We don't think you care about voter fraud at all, we think you just want more republican votes.
Is that not true? Then come to the table in good faith and find a compromise. There are many (e.g. voting day holidays, guarded drop boxes, etc...). Republicans have blocked them every time they come up.
I know of at least 2 people in my friend group who voted in their "home states" that they haven't lived in for 4+ years. I don't know if this is considered voter fraud, but if it is, it certainly undermines integrity of this claim.
In any case, at the macro level, there isn't reason to believe one party participates in this more than the other.
in a popular vote elections even a hundred thousand votes would be just a rounding error. In US electoral system just a few counties going wrong way could turn the elections, ie. theoretically "some bad actors, mistakes, fraud, etc." would be enough to do it. Add to that the facts like Dominion Voting Systems (whose machines were used in some of those key states and counties if i remember correctly) being a client of SolarWinds ... and one can have more than enough for a good conspiracy theory. At least i have :)
It's my understanding Trump supporters are mad their concerns aren't taken seriously. Most court cases were dismissed on technicalities, without looking at the provided evidence or testimonies.
This is supposed to be the evidence: https://got-freedom.org/evidence/
One example, the Georgia video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJ0xDWhWUxk And the comments about that video: https://thefederalist.com/2020/12/07/no-the-georgia-vote-cou...
Then there's this: https://twitter.com/MArepublican18/status/134659696972941721... https://twitter.com/Maximus_4EVR/status/1346582356899991552
PA & AZ Republicans wanting to decertify Biden after the election fraud hearings in their states. Not sure how serious those attempts are.
I'm European so I don't have a horse in this race.
"We are told that Biden won more votes nationally than any presidential candidate in history. But he won a record low of 17 percent of counties; he only won 524 counties, as opposed to the 873 counties Obama won in 2008. Yet, Biden somehow outdid Obama in total votes."
>>Yet, Biden somehow outdid Obama in total votes.
If you look at the populations of these various counties it isn't puzzling at all.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-votes-counties-...
The question is, where is the evidence of fraud?
The people pursuing these issues need to go beyond tweeting or holding press conferences and bring evidence to court.
So far, that hasn’t happened.
At this point there’s been plenty of opportunity, so it doesn’t seem there’s evidence to substantiate this stuff.
If fraud is happening, and the people doing it don't want to get caught, then you won't find any blatant evidence unless they're sloppy. And even if they're sloppy, at most you'll find hints of what occurred. We have plenty of those.
But somehow in this whole back and forth mess, various facts/stories/details/testimony with various levels of validity/credibility that seem to question the integrity or hint at fraud occurring, are being dismissed with constant repetitive calls of "where is the evidence"?
God damn, maybe I should just say I have this box full of bitcoin wallets in USB disks, someone want to give me a billion dollars for them? And yes, it's enough that you believe me without looking inside the box. Or checking the validity of those wallets.
Just to illustrate, take greenwashing as an example. Companies market their products as being good for the environment because that drives sales, and you can find that message on every shelf in the grocery store. There are many alternative views, very convincing ones in my opinion, that choosing the bottle of water that uses a thinner plastic is still harmful to the environment, and supporting greenwashing by purchasing it actually results in net harm to the environment because it reduces adoption of better options (reusable bottles, tap water) and distracts consumers from issues that could actually have a meaningful impact on climate change (innovation in direct air capture, greener steel production or air travel, a carbon tax, etc).
But how would that message ever reach consumers? It doesn’t make them spend more, so people never hear any of this.
The result is a populace that believes they are saving the world by not asking for a straw at Starbucks.
This is happening at an ideological level. Major brands either declare no political stance, or they declare a pro-left stance. Every celebrity either declares no political opinion, or declares a pro-left political opinion. (Or declares any pro-right opinion, even vaguely or accidentally, and has their brand harmed or destroyed for it.)
I’m something like a Clinton-era liberal, I guess, but the media environment is concerning to me. I would choose Biden over Trump, but the fact that the election was this close even with every major media source being so aggressively and overtly anti-Trump and pro-Biden does concern me. I can’t ignore the fact that if the media environment was more balanced and less ad-driven, it probably would have been an easy victory for Trump. And I do think all of the above is material to the subject of election integrity and the health of our democracy.
The fact is that you should never let electronic voting machines ever in the first place. I went crazy the first time I saw them in the US long time ago and said: "this is the end of democracy"
You should only count physical ballots in front of someone that represents all the parties.
As an engineer I can not trust them. There are 20 different ways I can cheat using those machines, from network hacks to software that self modifies.
The US election system is a joke, with no national ID card.
The worst thing is that they are trying to import those defective systems into Europe.
We find ourselves in a situation where the processes have been constructed in such a way that there is suspicion about the outcome and logistical difficulties at disproving what should be by design trivially disprovable, this just creates a terrible feedback loop of mistrust. The argument that we don't need better controls until actual widespread fraud can be proved in a court of law seems mistaken to me. We need the controls to keep us from getting to the point where a forensic analysis is needed to discern what happened during an election.
I realize that there are legitimate concerns that better voting controls can result in "voter suppression" but our haphazard approach to voting controls and process transparency has left us in a place where large numbers of people are suspicious and there doesn't seem to be any effective way to counter those suspicions in part due to the haphazard controls.
Stupid example: What if only Republicans were allowed to count ballots, and the only result you got was a number of votes that they told you, and they threw away all of the records. It would be impossible to get evidence, but you wouldn't need any evidence to rightfully distrust the result.
Purely electronic voting systems are analogous, though it differs in the details and degrees of things.
I believe they all print out a ballot or receipt that records the vote and those are what are counted/scanned and or can be in verifications/recounts
(maybe i can't think of an example let me know if so i would also agree that not having a paper record is bad but i dont think it exists).
In 2020, in the same city, I voted by marking a paper ballot and inserting it into a machine which scanned it and output it into a sealed box.
https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voting...
I don’t buy a lot of the claims going on here, but what does a receipt do if you don’t trust the machine? Or more importantly the operator?
Here are the list of states that have at least some electronic voting withOUT a paper trail:
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas
7 of those states were won by Trump, 1 by Biden, and none of those states were even within 15 percentage point margin except for Texas, which Trump won by 5 and a half percent.
[1] https://votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anomalies-...
edit: I'm looking for folks to give their take on this analysis since I nowhere qualified. A good summary is the final two sections of the article.
I also want to say that the sources of reported votes isn't a mystery, and the author could easily have found out that they were early votes if they had wanted to. Either they didn't check, or didn't want to inform people of those very relevant facts.
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-wi-pa-mi-vote-s...
My comment and some discussion on it: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25031443
I think we should be able to see how our vote was recorded.
The whole system is based on trust. Right now that trust is being threatened (eroded?). Since there isn't a way to individually inspect the system, we have to rely on the word of others to validate it.
The government doesn't always act in the best interest of the populace and often outright lies to it. This begs the question, should we take their word for it?
The tried and tested way to hold free and fair elections are paper ballots, simple boxes with obvious seals, and observers from all parties as well as international ones.
And this year many counts were filmed and streamed live because some Republicans complained that 6 feet was too far away with COVID - that challenge got thrown out in court.
At best you could say there wasn't enough fraud to tip the balance, but this "no fraud," "most secure election ever" nonsense is ridiculous. People like you probably also would have claimed dependent tax credit fraud was incredibly rare (from Snopes, a "FACT CHECK" site, no less):
> https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/declaration-of-non-depende...
Stop being obtuse, all you are doing is eroding trust for the sake of eroding trust.
It's also hilarious how much of the fraud that does happen is perpetuated by Republicans because their party tells them that Democrats commit fraud.
To be fair to the person your replying to I think that percentage you wrote is the crux of the whole thing. Quite large segments of the american population believe fraud >>0.0001% whereas other quite large segments share your view that it is ~0.0001%. And perhaps there is a segment that truly believes it is <<0.0001%.
Though I am unsure what the null hypothesis should be in this case it does seem that the probability of the reality being >>0.0001% is above zero.
Stop with the conspiracy theorizing. There are literal billions spent on elections every year, and if there was fraud being perpetuated by one of the parties, it would be in the interest of the other party to spend massive amounts of money to uncover said fraud, and they do, and they have found nothing of substance.
In addition to private study, there have been countless academic studies that state the same.
Stop giving breath to ideas that are without evidence and which are corrosive to our democracy.
Stop just regurgitating conspiracy theories. Seriously, go volunteer to be a trained poll watcher and go watch an election and then tell me how our elections don't happen under incredible scrutiny.
How exactly would any party put a thumb on the scale?
There is a watcher from each party and an election worker.
The ballots are watched the entire way from opening an envelope/voting booth, counting, moving sealed and secured boxes of ballots, counting, to the end.
For example, in PA, a judge ordered the election officials to allow republican watchers to view the counting, and struck down the distance requirements set by the governor due to COVID. However, election officials refused to do so, violating a court order. The GOP sued the officials, but the court dismissed it due to standing. They didn't even consider the complaint. Then a voter group tried to sue. They dismissed that for standing. Then trump sued, they dismissed that too. So if neither the political party, the voters, nor the candidate purportedly affected has standing to force the state to allow the vote to be examined and cannot bring a case against an official violating a court order -- then who exactly has that right? Can any election official simply do what they want?
Or in the TX v PA case, the Supreme Court really displayed major cowardice. They ought to have taken the case, examined the merits, and said yes or no. They dismissed it due to lack of standing. The case asked a very important question -- the Constitution says only the legislature sets the election rules, but in PA, the governor and SoS made up rules. Additionally, the PA supreme court simply extended a deadline set by the legislature. If indeed the legislature is the only one who can make electoin rules, then these moves are clearly illegal. The Court should have said if it's okay or not. They could have not granted the relief requested, which I do admit is a major ask. But they should have ruled on whether or not the PA Supreme Court or the governor's actions were legal.
To many republicans, it seems as if there were bad actors who got away with not following the law. It now seems that governors, courts, etc can simply set whatever election rules they want and get away with it. Even if it wouldn't have changed the outcome, I'd like to see a court penalize those officials in PA who disobeyed a court order, or explain in clear legal detail after hearing a case as to why those officials were right to do so.
I also want explanations into why the counting stopped. It is quite clear now that the supposed water leak in Atlanta was a simple toilet overflow that should not have caused anything to stop. Why did they do that, and why did they report it as a leak? Why did we see major drops for Biden with zero votes for Trump? Again, I am ready to concede that Biden won. In fact, I think it likely. However, it is crazy to me that so far not a single body has been willing to investigate these seeming discrepancies and instead told the groups interested in seeking resolution that they have no standing to question it.
Telling people that they do not deserve an answer is what leads to the behavior we're seeing now.
The courts made a huge mistake by simply dismissing on standing. Rumor has it that John Roberts didn't want to take the case due to fear of a mob... Well he got his mob, just not the one he expected.
Downvoters: please engage in good faith. Someone asked if there was anyone who believed the election was 'stolen'. I have given my good faith answer as to what I would have liked to have seen in order for me to fully trust our elections. You may disagree with me, but I'm simply giving my solicited opinion.
I'm not sure you can argue they're bad actors when the clear and obvious reasoning for those measures across the country are to limit the spread of a deadly pandemic.
It seems to me like the poll watcher is the person with standing? They could bring the exact same case a second time, that they were not able to watch. that comes against another legal doctrine now that the elections have been certified -- it's a moot point
The lack of standing is pretty obvious for the supreme Court isn't it? Texas has no say in how Pennsylvania votes. There's other things that are ridiculous about that case, like wanting throw out unrelated Texan votes.
I find it strange that that they weren't also suing to Wisconsin for the same thing and want to throw out Texan republican votes equal to the number of Wisconsin votes counted in this manner they don't like?
No it's not though. Texas is asking the Supreme Court to answer the question of whether the constitution allows the governor to make up election rules or whether it's just the state legislature. The Supreme Court has ruled that how other states conduct their elections affects other states. By precedent, they should have answered it.
Moreover, similar challenges to PA law by PA voters, PA candidates, and Trump himself were dismissed also for standing. Perhaps you can argue Texas has no standing to tell PA what to do. But shouldn't a PA voter have standing to question whether his governor can make up rules? How come absolutely no one has standing?
> I'm not sure you can argue they're bad actors when the clear and obvious reasoning for those measures across the country are to limit the spread of a deadly pandemic.
But they violated a court order. Sure, it's to stop a pandemic. But a judge ordered that order to be violated. Court orders supersede gubernatorial edicts.
> The governor's in charge of enforcement
I'm sorry... that's not good enough for an election. Can a governor allow votes to be made up even though it's against the law, because the governor is 'in charge of enforcement'. Can Trump use the national guard to stop the Biden electors from meeting because he's 'in charge of enforcement'.
At some point, the government needs to be held responsible for lack of enforcement of basic civil rights -- election integrity is a governmental duty. You can't just choose not to enforce it.
It has not. If you disagree, please cite the exact standing.
> Moreover, similar challenges to PA law by PA voters, PA candidates, and Trump himself were dismissed also for standing.
The cases along this line that were dismissed for standing were on the basis of challenging the state constitutionality of state laws (or actions of state officials) in federal courts. You're supposed to challenge them in state courts, which did hear some of the complaints and ultimately disagreed with those cases on the merits. You don't get to run off to federal court just because you don't like the state answers, especially since federal precedent is overwhelmingly along the lines of "we cannot question state courts' interpretation of state laws/state constitutions"--this deference is the very definition of federalism.
In a nutshell: Yes, state legislatures are responsible for deciding the "Manner" used to appoint Presidential electors. And in most states, the "Manner" set forth by the state legislature is "general ballot at the general election."
And as long as that process occurs, stuff like disputes over deadlines, drop box locations, signature verifications, etc stay squarely in the realm of election administration. As Judge Brett Ludwig (a Trump appointee) put it:
> But issues of mere administration of a general election do not mean there has not been a “general ballot” at a “general election.” Plaintiff’s conflation of these potential nonconformities with Constitutional violations is contrary to the plain meaning of the Electors Clause. If plaintiff’s reading of “Manner” was correct, any disappointed loser in a Presidential election, able to hire a team of clever lawyers, could flag claimed deviations from the election rules and cast doubt on the election results. This would risk turning every Presidential election into a federal court lawsuit over the Electors Clause. (Internal citations omitted.)
(Source: https://www.scribd.com/document/487916351/12-12-20-Trump-v-W...)
They said they would have taken the case but, even if they found pa to be wrong, they would not give the resolution asked for. That's eminently reasonable to me. This ensures that if they ruledagainst pa, then what happened there won't happen again while ensuring that thousands who voted in good faith are not disenfranchised
My techie friends 2020: "The FBI is our savior. What the mainstream media says is true and anyone that otherwise is a conspiracy theorist. This was the most secure election in history."
Not me, but plenty of friends and family have such views. Every argument voiced to me so far from those sources has been some variant of the following two arguments:
1) <ludicrous thing> happened, therefore the election was rigged
2) <ludicrous thing> happened, therefore <verifiably false thing> happened, therefore the election was rigged
Elaborating slightly, <ludicrous thing> is defined here to be something designed to appeal to your common sense -- something that without close inspection would be plainly incompatible with a non-rigged election to any reasonable person. That's probably ordinarily a fine enough chain of reasoning, but all the instances I bothered to examine had the property that reality directly contradicted one's gut reaction; they seemed cherry-picked to be easy to believe and repeat while also being false (not to assume malice, I think that's exactly the kind of reasoning you'd expect if you went fishing for evidence to support a theory you believe to be true).
As a specific example, one argument was that the exact vote tallies for Biden and Trump were the same across many voting locations, therefore a computer program must have generated the result. This sounds reasonable on the surface because it seems unlikely that if you drew vote counts out of a hat they would coincide, and most people aren't equipped to be able to analyze such a statement further -- it's "ludicrous" to imagine that in a fair election that kind of anomaly would happen by accident. In practice though, combining the facts that most combinations of votes are comparatively unlikely (few locales would have a 0/N split for example) with the large number of voting locations and a healthy dose of the birthday paradox, many repeated vote tallies are _exactly_ what one would expect from a fair election. Their absence would in fact be a suspicious property indicating some kind of large-scale fraud.
Anywho, I didn't investigate every theory (there were a lot), but I did check out the first 10 or so which came my way and a randomly selected 5 or so (till I grew tired or bored) from each subsequent batch. There might be a valid argument in there somewhere (and independently of their ability to come up with a valid argument there _might_ have been some kind of massive fraud), but the best evidence I've seen is pretty shoddy.
I don't "believe" but I do understand why people would. Every time someone questions the result, their questioning is seen as motivated and the premise that there has already been a satisfactory investigation is assumed. This is awkward because it would be a lot easier to talk people down if there was in fact an investigation that resolved concerns to show them.
> I'd really like to hear from anyone who believes this, to present a cogent argument.
As I said, I don't "believe." But I'd certainly like an explanation of the two videos (one in Georgia and one of a thumb drive handoff) and perhaps some reasonable handling of the claims by observers that they weren't effectively permitted to do their jobs (asked to leave, prevented from seeing the ballots, challenging ballots that were ignored, etc.)
[0] https://apelbaum.wordpress.com/2020/12/03/the-georgia-ballot...
[1] https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/12/04/that-is-some-handof...
Oh, right, because they weren't.
Yes, Dems, barely managed to flip the Senate. That that was just a +3 / +1 affair. But...
Look at all the House races. Repubs won all the red-leaning districts, nearly all the purple ones, and even some light-blue ones. They did better than expected in all states including the ones where 45 lost in the Presidential race.
If you're going to steal the election of the President via a comprehensive, super-sneaky, multi-state conspiracy, why the fuck would you also not also steal House and Senate seats? That makes no goddamn sense. You're going to alter ballots, inject fake ballots, etc., etc., etc., and not bother with the Congress and local elections too?
Moronic. Totally moronic. How fucking stupid do you have to be to believe that only the Presidential race was stolen, but everything else was fine.
Who out there is a supporter of 45, that believes the Dems don't hate Moscow Mitch nearly as much as 45 himself? Or Louie Gomert, Devin Nunes, Matt Gates, or the other lackeys? "Yeah, let's steal the election for Biden, but then leave in place all the other assholes. Great idea! That will work out perfectly!"
Morons.
For the sake of intellectual honesty, I'll post this on my main account. Strong odds it doesn't go well, but transparency is worth striving for.
I have seen [3,4,5]quite a bit of evidence that there was at least some fraud taking place, and that the evidence of that fraud has been suppressed. Whether the fraud was enough to change results, no clue. I have also seen people attacking the character of everyone presenting or talking about said evidence, rather than addressing the actual content of the claims.
The above is concerning, but it doesn't lead me to believe an election was stolen. However, the narrative that's being played out is that Joe Biden, a 78 year old segregationist who was crucified publicly by his now running mate Kamala Harris for those policies, and who basically didn't campaign or hold rallies, and who has [0]received most of his money from the 'upper class', won nearly 12 Million more votes than Barack Obama in 2008. He did this while [1]winning in substantially fewer counties than Barack Obama.
However, most importantly, the majority of the lawsuits have [2]not been addressed based on their merits but have instead been dismissed based for procedural reasons (e.g. legal standing, injury). As a result, there has not been a transparent process through which the evidence that has been presented has been addressed.
One would expect that these dismissals, and the evidence presented would have become major news. That has not happened, and that leaves people who have seen some of the evidence or who have heard about it feeling concerned.
Now, I'm hesitant to bring up the Hunter Biden story because the media narratives on it are hyper-polarizing. But, many of the claims about the contents are true and some (many?) of the videos and emails have been leaked. This story was smothered by social media, just like the election-related concerns. This has led to a complete eradication of trust in the media as a whole by a huge portion of the population.
- PERSONAL OPINION -
The issue is not what happened, the issue is that we have become divided. Until we have more transparency we will not see people coming back together. There is no way to fix the division until the concerns of both sides can be addressed publicly, transparently, and without media (including social media) interference. Seeing videos of raw footage being marked as misinformation by twitter eradicates whatever trust people had in them.
This election cycle, and the way the media is operating, reminds me of the way we found ourselves in the middle east. Everyone knew([6,7]except our allies) there were WMD's until there weren't.
[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-election-trump-biden...
[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/12/09/fac...
[2] https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/dec/10/donald-trump-... (CTRL+F "lawsuits been disposed")
[3] https://www.clerkofcourt.maricopa.gov/Home/ShowDocument?id=1...
[4] DISCLAIMER I am aware of the bias of the individual presenting, but the content is what is important here. https://youtu.be/XH9ihoLi1NA
[5] https://www.youtube.com/user/veritasvisuals
[6] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2003/03/31/who-lied-to-wh...
Well let's look at once recent example that I mentioned.
[0] CNN completely discredited the Hunter Biden story when it was released. They called it 'Russian Disinformation' and in their articles repeatedly used charged language such as "dubious" to refer to the information presented.
This was done on an ongoing basis by the majority of news organizations at the time. EDIT - [3] And supported by social media giants (Famously Twitter, but Google/Youtube did the same thing)
Fast forward past the election and the narrative has changed rather sharply. [1] They no longer call the story Russian Disinformation, and instead publish that the FBI is actively investigating Hunter Biden.
[2] As I mentioned, the same thing happened after 2001. The largest news institutions eagerly promoted that the US was under extreme threat. CNN in 2002 was publishing quotes like "we don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud” and "Saddam is actively pursuing nuclear weapons at this time.”
Then when it became clear that there was no WMD's to be found they started giving room to the opposing narrative such as: Joe Wilson “I think it’s safe to say that the US government should have or did know that [the Niger documents were] fake before Dr. ElBaradei mentioned it in his report at the UN yesterday.”
Just to be clear, I'm not saying 'everything is a lie and the election was stolen and Trump is telling the truth'
What I am saying is that the sources of information have proven themselves to be incredibly untrustworthy to the point where many people automatically believe the inverse of what they claim.
[0] https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/18/media/new-york-post-hunter-bi...
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/09/politics/hunter-biden-tax-inv...
[2] https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/12/leadup-iraq-war...
I think it's perfectly fine for them to add commentary by pundits. If they believe the president to be lying, they have to do their best to give a competing narrative. But they can't be sticking their narrative into the objective part of the story. Trump said this. Election Official XYZ said this was incorrect because of that. That's it. If they claim something is objectively incorrect they'd better have a very solid basis for it.
I don't know if left-of-center people just don't notice it anymore, but anyone right-of-center feels like they're reading Pravda all the time these days.
So it seems this dude is a wrestler, and here's a random Twitter quote: "If the CHURCh understood the Laws of God which govern our relationship with Him, our neighbor, and those whom he has given authority to we wouldn’t be in this situation. The Church has failed to represent the lawful nature character and heart of God. Lawlessness is rampant." Anyhow, look him up on Twitter.
If you Google this story you'll see this dude got a fair bit of media exposure. I'd say more than I'd expect. So much for "the media doesn't report on this".
We also have some mystery Arizona law firm involved here. So what's the story exactly in how this specific person got involved with this specific law firm? I'd follow that lead but I sort of got an idea about who is involved here.
Just because we have a signed affidavit doesn't mean its true...
This guy (or rather these lawyers) did have their day in court: https://www.clerkofcourt.maricopa.gov/records/election-2020/... and the Justice offers a lengthy and educated opinion on the issue as a whole (basically while there might have been some irregularities there is no way they would have changed the outcome of the elections). And man, there is a lot of minutes/paperwork here.
Is this your best evidence of fraud? I think it's pretty thin.
Also please vote in your elections, it impacts all of us.
You picked the one high-profile case where an individual who did not vote in a specific state somehow had a signature verified ballot cast in their name. Because of who he is, and because of his beliefs, it made headlines (in conservative media).
If you google "Nahshon Garrett CNN" you see the following results: https://pasteboard.co/JIuN3X9.jpg
You can swap CNN for almost every major media outlet(NBC, MSNBC, etc) and see the same results. So, compared to the amount of articles posted that call allegations of fraud baseless, or claim there is no evidence, the coverage this well-documented counterexample is extremely minimal. It's noteworthy that an independent channel (Tim Pool) has such a presence in the results.
> Also please vote in your elections, it impacts all of us.
There hasn't been a President in 40 years (until Trump, ironically) that has not started a new war. As someone who strongly believes that violence should only be tolerated as a defensive measure of last resort, I cannot in good conscience vote for anyone who does not believe the same.
Where exactly is that "well-documented" documentation? It's not in the affidavit. For all we know this guy voted in Arizona just so he could cry foul, or nobody really voted in Arizona using his name. Even if we say that one of his friends or acquaintances (clearly a Biden supporter) knew that he moved and took advantage to fake a vote where does that exactly leave us? How many people are in this situation? Would it change the results? Was this somehow systematically exploited? And how exactly?
Why should I assign any credibility to what some seem to call "Pro-Trump ‘voter integrity’ group that is calling Pennsylvania voters has ties to White House"? Does this group have any credibility? Now I need to watch a video? But sure, let's see what they're saying and I'll get back to you.
We have plenty of credible sources, including from the current administration, who tell us that the elections was generally fair.
Not voting has an impact, so if the president that won starts a war, and you didn't vote for the other guy (hypothetically) then you did actually effectively vote for the president. You don't get to walk away from democracy like that.
EDIT: So I went to the video. I gotta say "Trump Pence" in the background inspires confidence in the message. I'm not gonna spend an hour of my time listening to this so I jumped to the "dead voters" segment because that seemed interesting. "blah blah blah", "no records", "duplicate names make this difficult", "very small numbers", "small numbers", "I can not say there was an effort to vote in the name of the deceased"... "Its very difficult to determine who is dead and who is not". So great, it's all good then?
You seem to have a strongly held position on the subject, and I have no interest in trying to change your position. However, it would be beneficial for democracy if you would take the time to understand the position of those with different views than yourself. It helps a lot if you don't actively admit (and condescendingly phrase) that you won't spend your time to understand their concerns.
> Not voting has an impact, so if the president that won starts a war, and you didn't vote for the other guy (hypothetically) then you did actually effectively vote for the president. You don't get to walk away from democracy like that.
Actually, not voting very specifically does not have an impact and reduces the thresholds required for recalls for elected officials. I'll vote in every election once we have a voting system that doesn't perpetuate the powers of the two most corrupt institutions in America.
Why is this a question of "view"? Isn't the picture pretty clear? I don't really have a view here other than "someone is wrong on the Internet" ( https://xkcd.com/386/ ). And that someone just happens to be you ;) (oops, condescending again). My political views don't really align with much of what's going on in the US on both major parties.
If President X won by 1 vote, and you didn't vote for President Y (oops, ignore that's not how "democracy" works in the US, doesn't matter how many people vote for X), then I'm sorry but your not voting is what made X president. You can spin that anyway you want but it seems like a pretty universal fact. Can US presidents be recalled?
Anyhow, I will agree with one point I think you're making, democracy in the USA is really screwed up. Keep in mind there's other ways of participating in the democratic process, you can run to office yourself or get involved in the campaign of someone who resonates with you.
"condescendingly phrase" - I'm sorry. I probably am being condescending. It's age and my annoyance and disappointment with the USA. Really, what the heck is wrong with you people? Try and tune that out and listen to the core of my position. I.e. there's no credible evidence that the result of the elections is due to some massive fraud or conspiracy.
EDIT: I also want to add that I'm not shutting you out. I'm just asking for some sort of evidence that I can go look at and is going to be compelling/convincing and pointing out that asking someone to watch a one hour video (I watched a portion, randomly, and it had nothing) or to follow some random links (I followed one, randomly, and found nothing) isn't really the way to go about asking someone form an opinion or change an opinion. I don't think (in my biased opinion) that this is a situation where I'm clearly holding a wrong view, there's a mountain of good evidence to that extent, and I'm just ignoring it and sticking with my views. But hey, maybe I'm wrong.
EDIT2: I should know better than arguing with random people on the Internet. But like I said, this is actually important stuff that impact everyone on this planet. If you guys can't get your act together, who can?
EDIT3: Let's use my edit window fully. So you're saying the election was not stolen except there's no way Biden really received all these votes? Or am I misreading your original commentary? So it was stolen? Or it wasn't stolen?
Did Obama also start a war? I honestly can't keep track any more.
the key point is that the media was extremely supportive of Biden and not of Trump. the margin of victory was small in key states. so if the media was presenting an even-handed position and not doommongering the whole time, it seems quite probable that Trump would have won.
so the argument is that the media elite has manipulated the population into doing something the population would not have done by itself. this is not certain of course, but it is a reasonable hypothesis.
hence the US is not a democracy but a country controlled by a tiny media elite which has cohered around its preferred candidate.
I’m not just talking about Russia and China here, I mean all the intelligence agencies.
Given the whole Russian play is destabilizing the US, Trump is so far gone now that they probably couldn't dream of it when planning whatever exactly they did do.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump%27s_disclosures_o... Then again if you ask nicely enough he'll give it to you.
[1] https://twitter.com/ElijahSchaffer/status/134690542554391757...
[2] https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/01/pro-trump-report...
https://mobile.twitter.com/Foone/status/1346925826923663360
There’s no debunk here. It’s a computer connected to the government network at Nancy peolosi’s desk. Anything else is just semantics.
That’s (mostly) because such information is the domain of the executive branch.
Members of the house intelligence committee have access to all levels of US secrets. There is nothing classified enough to where they can’t see it. Some members even fell for Chinese spy honeypot influence campaigns.
I think the symbolism of going back tonight is more important than the small risk. But I agree with you this is a breach that needs to be dealt with.
Though with all those computers hacked via solarwinds already anyways maybe it doesn't matter lol
[1] https://www.axios.com/riots-cost-property-damage-276c9bcc-a4...
The military only became involved after local governments gave "protesters" space over multiple days and emboldened the idiots to the point local police were overwhelmed.
Having been gassed and flashbanged all summer in Portland while protesting for Black Lives, the last word I can imagine using to describe police restraint is "despicable." I don't wish that shit on anybody.
It is unfortunate though, that this strategy is only seemingly applied to white people.
It is much more than unfortunate.
[1] https://time.com/5886348/report-peaceful-protests/ [2] https://www.axios.com/riots-cost-property-damage-276c9bcc-a4...
It strikes me as pyschopathic to endorse actions that stand a 7% chance of ruining numerous innocent lives.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/transportationsafety/impaired_driving/im...
[2] https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-highway-...
And, you know, taking selfies with them.
This is a backwards argument. The police didn't do their jobs. They were even seen taking selfies with the trespassers: https://twitter.com/bubbaprog/status/1346920198461419520
Of course it is always possible to modulate people’s behaviour through incentives and so on, to achieve a very high probability that they will behave in certain ways.
In this case it seems that the balance was in favor of the protestors.
Pigs can't be trusted. They like to pretend they're protecting people and doing the right thing. But they're just bullies in uniform. Never trust any of them. Ever. "My dad is a cop though and..." no. If there was a single good cop, they would have stopped this. Fucking pigs. Your dad is a pig. Get over it.
Maybe if cops had better training, they would stop something like this and focus on protecting us. But they don't, and they didn't. They're pigs. Don't be another person who buys into the pigs' lies.
It's also the kind of rhetoric that has driven so many in law enforcement into Trumpism.
Only some small portion of these protests are likely to be violent bad actors, and the proper protesters should not be disrupted by law enforcement
There are always people taking advantage of or inciting chaos to do reckless things. They need to be tried and, if found guilty, punished. Even if they're the president.
"People over property" is probably the most direct encouragement of property destruction.
People were harmed and property was destroyed. There's plenty of videos of fights breaking out and capitol windows being broken.
https://twitter.com/search?q=washingtondc%20windows%20until%...
The only dead person was one of the protestors.
Besides the democratic process
> destroyed nothing
Besides the capitol
> the voice of the unheard!
I've been hearing about them weekly for the last 4 years and I'm not even in the US
And I would rather see this police response for BLM, than that response for these people.
> Thats probably because you hate black people more than you respect Democracy.
this is extra funny to me because it is also mathematically bogus. I'm saying I very much don't want the cops harassing BLM protests, even if it the price is letting these protests vandalize the Capitol building.
Maybe poster meant "That's probably because you like black people more than you respect Democracy". To which I answer, "...you call the Senate Democracy?"
It absolutely fits the definition of terrorism.
So this might be terrorism, but no big deal right?
There have been quite a number of injuries and property damage, deployment of chemical irritants by the mob against law enforcement, and several explosive devices identified and defused in the attempt to use violence and threats of further violence to overturn the results of the recent election.
You're right, I've revised my view of the incident. I now see this constitutes sedition, an attack on our very republic.
For consistency, I've also reconsidered my view of the BLM riots. In light of the billions in property damage; the tens of direct deaths and thousands of ensuing murders; the violent mob attacks on law enforcement, replete with "chemical irritants" and Molotov cocktails; all on a scale 1e3 to 1e5 larger than what's happening in DC; I have to conclude they were a grave act of terrorism.
Not saying the police response has been perfect, but this video doesn't say much about that.
That is literally letting them in. They didn't stand their position. They literally walked backwards and let the crowd in.
- the 'resistance' was very weak at least at first. The videos of the 'storming' didn't show much resistance, no gas, no rubber bullets, no attempt to hold the line. here is a 'selfie' [2] which to be fair doesn't show cop actively participating, but does show him just standing there. There are some photos of guns drawn trying to protect the floor, obviously out numbered once they secured Members I understand completely retreating. But the main uniformed officers at the entrances didn't act.
It's a stark difference. My story is that here in Denver I was gassed, before curfew, before an unlawful assembly was declared, during a peaceful protest this summer. They shot more than a few eyes out of their sockets with rubber bullets. A judge had to restrain the Denver police for their violence.
Compare to today it took a LONG time for them to deploy these same weapons, and it doesn't even look like they used tear gas/irritants at least in the first videos, just smoke; unlike what they gassed us with and those in Lafayette Park and across the country.
1 https://s.abcnews.com/images/US/national-guard-lincoln-memor... 2 https://twitter.com/bubbaprog/status/1346920198461419520
This was 1000% a failure from the top, there are lots of videos of these poor uniformed officers on the outer lines outnumbered 1000 / 1 with no gear, no tear gas or other riot weapons, fighting back but just getting trampled, shot with tear gas, hit with bat things, etc. It looks like instead of refusing to respond they didn't have the equipment to.
While the many were brave, there are definitely still some sympathizers and participants for instance WaPo has quotes that there were off duty officers of the law flashing their badges to get in.
i think good chance we'll see the evidence it was intentional negligence denying support/materials/gear and intentionally delaying a response on the part of Trump's DOJ etc.
Send out the subpoenas, and interview this weekend -> vote Monday.
these and so many more, but this focuses on the outer 'rings' https://twitter.com/ElijahSchaffer/status/134696651499014963... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJOgGsC0G9U
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/06/us/washington-dc-pro...
What you had after the evacuation was complete was just a few fools breaking some windows, posing on the dias for Twitter likes, and wandering the hallways. I'm surprised they haven't spray painted their message on the walls yet.
Government property gets vandalized all the time, and can be replaced. The last thing you want to do is to kill these people who have been trapped in a cult of disinformation and turn them into martyrs, possibly building into a civil war. Currently, the response makes them look weak, but at the end of the day they'll all just leave, hopefully without loss of life.
That civil war must be avoided at all costs, and if a tepid-looking response, a few of them getting away without being arrested, a few panes of glass, and some carpet cleaning are what that costs, then I'm more than happy to pay it.
I'm less enthusiastic about the criminals at the top escaping prison time, as Joe Biden seems intent on allowing per his messaging, but again, if prosecuting everyone complicit in the previous administration's crimes has a 1% chance of inciting civil war, well, it's just not worth it.
https://twitter.com/shomaristone/status/1346941715895250949
https://twitter.com/Journo_Christal/status/13469458353685012...
Also, WTF do you mean by any evidence of buildings being looted or vandalized? Have you stuck your head in sand or not seen the rioters destroying shit in the Capitol? Just look up any legitimate media source or anything on twitter from today. They also fucking placed pipe bombs and explosives in several locations.
The opposite sends the message that you run a low probability of sanction if you attack the US Capitol. Very bad incentive.
This thing was a major police messup.
There should have been plenty riot police available that can force people to not enter. Obviously the risk of protesters trying to go in was high when Trump had a rally outside.
Not just a matter of doors sadly...
Felony murder applies when a person dies while the offender is committing any of a set of felonies. It doesn't matter how the person died, or whether it was intentional because the intent to commit the initial felony is enough.
The canonical example is everyone who took part in a bank robbery can be charged with murder if the bank guards kill one of the robbers. This even applies to the getaway driver, who may not have entered the bank.
The initial felony could be any of: the assault on the building, breaking & entering, various domestic terror statutes we have for this sort of thing.
There were at least 4 deaths at the Capitol yesterday. All of the insurgents should be facing 4 murder charges, in addition to the other charges that we would expect.
Edit: possibly relevant statute: https://code.dccouncil.us/dc/council/code/sections/22-2101.h...
This appears to indicate that everyone who illegally entered the Capitol yesterday can be indicted for first-degree murder, which carries a sentence of 30 to life in DC.
Just a bit of snark I don't believe that's legal or even if so with current laws it should be.
But I do not think we will see Federal charges at equivalent levels /per capita as BLM protests.
If this is all that side can muster, the hand-wringing about dogwhistles and complaints about the president's claims are even more overblown and irrelevant than they seemed.
The fact that you or someone else thought it could be worse doesn't stop this being one of the worst assaults on our system of democracy in our history.
The power is being transferred, this protest has no bearing on that.
The fact that the transfer of power will occur doesn't mean there wasn't violence involved along the way.
Honestly it's shocking how many on HN try to defend it. This isn't a republican or democrat issue anymore after what Pence and McConnell said today.
The man is a tyrant, and we should all be thankful it is not far, far worse than this.
Noticing a tendency among many in the tech community to take apolitical & "centrist" positions on many of these issues, which usually ends up with the blaming of "both sides".
Being in the center when one side is so intent on going to the extreme right is not a virtue.
Yes, we all dodged a bullet. This person could be "the Leader of the Free World" for the next 4 years.
https://missouriindependent.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/g...
Edit: inside.
Not going to post links, but there is video on Twitter.
I don't understand how they weather 1000 protests a year in the capitol and weren't prepared for this.
No. National Guard units are normally controlled by state governors, but since DC is not a state and has no governor, the DC National Guard is the only guard unit that reports directly to the president [1].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_of_Columbia_National_...
> Because D.C. does not have a governor, the designated commander of the city’s National Guard is Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy. Any D.C. requests for Guard deployments have to be approved by him.
[1] https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-politics-e...
In any event, where are the Capitol Police? How were they not prepared for this?
> Supervision and control of D.C. National Guard was delegated by the president to the defense secretary pursuant to Executive Order 10030, 26 January 1949 with authority to designate National Military Establishment officials to administer affairs of the D.C. National Guard. The Army secretary was directed to act in all matters pertaining to the ground component, and the Air Force secretary was directed to act in all matters pertaining to the air component.
> The National Guard may be called into federal service in response to a call by the president or Congress.
So control is apparently shared in some way between the president, secdef, congress, and secretaries of the army and air force. But it does seem that the Army secretary's authority is delegated by the president, who remains the "commander in chief" of the guard unit.
Of course the president is commander in chief of all guard units when they're called into federal service, but I wonder if service in DC is considered "federal" in that sense. DC is a federal entity, but a guard unit serving its home jurisdiction isn't usually what's meant by "federal service".
Military organization is weird.
In any case, it's not controlled by the mayor of DC. She can only request an activation (which she did).
It would sure be nice if these kind of histrionics stayed off of HN.
Don’t be disparaging. This is a real conversation even if you don’t like what it brings to light.
An actual alternative narrative is that the executive branch willfully did not defend the capital. That makes this a more standard coup.
Yes, our military does not do that. That is the job of law enforcement. Look up the Posse Comitatus Act.
There's a lot to be said about the evils of the military industrial complex, but you're making that point in the worst possible way. Complaining that your tax dollars are being wasted because the military is too lazy to perform duties that they are explicitly not allowed to perform for very good reasons does not bring anything to light.
> An actual alternative narrative is that the executive branch willfully did not defend the capital.
It isn't a matter of narrative, it is a simple fact that the executive branch chose not to authorize an exception to Posse Comitatus in this case, which is what the National Guard does and requires specific authorization each and every time. Without that authorization, the military has no more authority in D.C. than the NYPD does. It's quite simply outside of their jurisdiction.
This was either an unforgivable lack of intelligence/preparation OR another example of the gross disparity in treatment between the armed MAGA crowd and for instance black Americans and BLM protestors.
As a comparison, the feds deployed thousands of officers in the District and across the county during BLM protests, often times pushing beyond fed building perimeters which many don't think is legal. Some of the videos with scary unmarked officers/arrests which are terrifying. I use this photo as an example of the crazy policing Trump ordered to scare voters
https://s.abcnews.com/images/US/national-guard-lincoln-memor...
Tomorrow, Congress will finish counting the electoral votes. I suspect that some, if not all, of the planned objections will not be made.
Hopefully, that scares them straight and cools some heads. And not just Trump, but the entire political class who've been playing loose with divisive/identity politics for the last decade.
This is a media frenzy, nothing more, IMO.
As they have said in congress already, all that was achieved was the vote was delayed for a few hours.
Of course not, they were hoping the mere threat would get a sufficient number of Republican lawmakers to immediately and publicly side with rejecting the election results (or get Pence to recant and do so, refusing to open the dispute votes), so that the mob could switch to celebration rather than carrying out violence.
Twitter has finally had it with Trump. His last two tweets were removed for TOS violations.
Some staffer had the presence of mind to grab the actual electoral votes signed by each state and got them out of the House chamber before the rioters came in. So that important detail is not a problem.
These voters will continually fear what it means to elect a Republican, because should they lose in the subsequent election, there is now an established history of violence and death -- a woman has died in the Capitol today.
It appears the attempt failed.
[1]https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1346906369232920576/pho...
Imagine having to try and reason with that crowd, to avoid having to shoot anyone.
This one is wow (https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1346912374406615042).
I have difficulty believing it's real, but it's from the account of a legit reporter. I predict, this will be one of the iconic images from the 53rd week of 2020.
Edit: Also, if someone wanted to go to war with the US, it looks like it'd be pretty trivial to shut down the central leadership... This is quite an event.
This is not impossible, CNN are reporting at least two bombs have been rendered safe by EODs
Who knows if congressional members can reasonably safely meet before such a sweep occurs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_United_States_Capitol_sho...
If it's a party that wants to execute on US foreign policy, it'll be a heroic story of freedom fighters trying to retake their country from oppressive <whatever>
And if it's against a government that executes US foreign policy, it'll be a story about an attempted coup by evil terrorists.
You can look at venezuela for all the examples you need. Guaido and the the couple Americans that tried to assasinate maduro
There was violence and property destruction. But if you count the number of people that protested peacefully and the number of people that engaged in violence and destruction of property, there's one that is obviously vastly larger than the other, and it's the peaceful protesters.
I think the phrase you’re looking for is “firey but mostly peaceful”: https://youtu.be/6preTw28GWE
> There was violence and property destruction. But if you count the number of people that protested peacefully and the number of people that engaged in violence and destruction of property, there's one that is obviously vastly larger than the other, and it's the peaceful protesters.
If you’re protesting and looters show up to take advantage of the chaos, then shame on them. But if you keep showing up to “protest” and all it’s doing is enabling more looting, then you’re not a peaceful protester. You’re aiding and abetting the looters.
Again, if it a protest against the government then take it to the government. March on the capital. March on city hall. Planning marches through retail districts isn’t done by accident. They knew exactly what they were doing.
I don't recall it being a pattern that marches particularly went through retail districts. In my small town, if you got a large crowd around city hall you'd have people in a retail district because that's where it's located…
That video looks like a typical big box store located off of a freeway or whatever, and just shows people actively engaged in looting.
Edit: Yes, it's true that the top leader and his acolytes have engineered this outcome, but the majority of the republican leadership did not want this and do not benefit from this, they were (with some exceptions) simply too cowardly to speak out against it.
Although...who am I kidding. The right-wing media would probably have covered the full impeachment trial in the same way they covered the House impeachment proceedings. Just play a silent video of politicians talking, and have their own pundits say "This is BS we won't even insult you by making you listen to it".
Basically he knew that the Senate would cover for any crime so long as he delivered the votes, so he ran the place like a mob boss.
Except that didn't work out, did it? Remember he was impeached for trying to cheat at an election. And people (lots of people) warned he'd continue on that path.
I mean, let's be honest: it would have been better in hindsight to have actually removed him from office.
The GOP having had enough of GOP President Nixon that they were going to impeach and remove him is what led to him resigning first.
And the country got on just fine.
They all came out against Trump when this started in 2016. Was not even a speed bump.
That would have been more than a speed bump. They had the opportunity to act, chose not to (well except for Romney).
If they were openly and clearly disagreeing with Trump, then they wouldn't be at fault. But they're giving tacit approval.
They're refusing to undermine the system from which their own legitimacy and power derives. There's nothing moral about it.
edit: Guys. By resorting to ad hominems and offering no incentive for changing one's mind, you are practically guaranteeing calcification and re-entrenchment. Are you happy that you contributed to the situation in a positive way?
Let them earn respect by demonstrating that they understand their wrongs and taking ongoing substantive action to change.
What offers even less incentive is when someone knows they will never be held accountable.
Give them some credit when they give a mild amount of evidence that they have actually changed their ways. Doing the right thing in a single instance is not enough evidence.
You don't appease Hitler, you stop him.
Any one off act is meaningless. What matters is continued, persistent good behaviour. Once in a blue moon is just bad behaviour.
Your standards are too low, and encourages people with bad behaviour to not change. After all, you get accolades for doing one good thing in a sea of bad, but get admonished for one bad thing amidst a sea of good
I've been in abusive relationships, fuck a single apology, change materializes due to consequences. There need to be consequences first.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-there-are-so-few-mo...
A pro business, corporate tax cut Democrat isn't all that different from a pro business, corporate tax cut republican
I think it is also time for people to face the fact that this is not hyperbole.
Trump and Trump supporters have been more caustic by far to Republicans who don't toe the line. They seek retribution and engage in threatening behavior, including death threats.
This morning Trump expressed his displeasure at the Vice President's unwillingness to engage in illegal activity, and then Trump sent a mob to the capitol where Pence was doing his job.
Four people are dead on a day of performative action, merely to count votes, with an outcome that was guaranteed on December 8.
Following this violence and death, most Republicans in the House supported and voted for this cynical, delusional lie of their cult leader. And had very little to say about the mob that was send toward them, by him. They had more lies to tell.
Trump spent five years of the previous presidency trying to delegitimize that president too, just like he's trying to delegitimize the next one.
Don't lecture people on how they should become milquetoast.
The cops have a strange affinity for certain kinds of 'protesters' too, we all know it would end differently if BLM or 'Antifa' did this.
You mean they would have let the protestors occupy several blocks of the city while declaring independence for several months until their private security forces murdered too many black teenagers?
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/04/politics/muriel-bowser-dc...
The party needs to split into the anti-democracy, pro-Trump faction, and the rest of the party. The moderate wing could easily pull some people that voted Democrat this year, and form a stable, coalition government.
This would help de-radicalize our political system.
Then you could have the progressives, the moderates, the ultra conservatives, and I guess a Texas separation party, and it'll be like Canada
It makes sense that they'd leave it alone to do it's thing
Fox and right radio have pushed insane junk that millions actually believe. It created the widespread tinder before social media.
Social media is a catalyst and internet is the mega-phone/amplifier which makes lot of things precipitate quickly than before.
It looks like Defense Dept. denied DC's request for National Guard.
Update: DoD denies the report, but says they haven't acted upon request.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1346932484152430596
...might just as well have given them a guided tour
Considering that the senators and house representatives have been evacuated, the latter is looking more likely.
The idea with Nazi Germany was that it didn't suddenly pop into existence, as many would believe. It had a long, gradual, slide into it.
In 1932 there was The Beer Hall Putsch [0] when the nazis tried to get the power but failed. As a consequence, Hitler was jailed and wrote his book and after he got out he continued his ascent.
The scary implication of the comment is that even if this coup attempt fails, the USA is down a long slide out of democracy and this is just the beginning.
It is quite scary for me as a non-US citizen because I used to look up to the US. Not anymore. The current world order is supported by US hegemony. Upending this could end up badly for the rest of the world, since transitions of power on the world stage are rarely peaceful.
It's scary because the US seems heading down this road that is eerily similar to what happened in the past. And they say that history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
1923::2020/2021
Weimar post-WW1 trauma::Global War On Terror slow pull-out quasi capitulation
Rosewood massacre::Floyd,etc
Ruhr occupation::China's covid resurgence, and next step across the Strait
Treaty of Lausanne ending the Ottoman empire::End of the USA's role-model status
Cooking it slow...
Ps. From Wikipedia: Hyperinflation in Germany has seen the number of marks needed to purchase a single American dollar reach 353,000 – more than 200 times the amount needed at the start of the year. ... I guess this makes it a good target for BTCUSD...
The actual answer is probably that they do not believe the claims of election fraud have been sufficiently investigated. I'm sure they want a more thorough investigation to be held before the election results are officially recognized by congress.
That and they're just angry people who have resorted to rioting - like how a toddler resorts to a tantrum when it doesn't get its way. This appears to be an increasingly common theme with modern US politics.
These are angry people being disruptive and destructive. That's what a riot is. Calling it a coup is conspiratorial.
It's true that they don't seem to have the ability. But they didn't seem to have the ability to take over the Capitol building either. It's very dangerous to look at people trying their hardest to do a coup and dismiss it just because it'd be an uphill battle to make it work.
Not sure what to make of the "luck" comment. I suppose we're always lucky that bad things aren't worse than they end up being.
The luck is assigned to all of us, including the idiots that tried this.
I think it's a mistake to think that these people argue in good faith. I tried listening to what they have to say and they're not consistent, they're not coherent, they're not honest and they want the truth only if it confirms their beliefs.
There is no organization. There is no plan. There is no sign of a premeditated attempt to overthrow the government. There is just a mob of angry rioters barging into a government building.
I'm curious what you believe constitutes a coup.
Edit: for example: https://twitter.com/RedR1dngHood/status/1346908557560537091
During the BLM protests the police wasn't late at showing up fully armed.
- those “bad apples” being almost universally exempt from meaningful accountability proportional to their power and actions
- those “good apples” being unwilling to lead those accountability efforts, or even to just distance themselves from the “bad apples” to set a better example
- the clear and consistent bias overall in favor of these far right/fascist actors, including numerous times being caught on camera actively coordinating and ample video evidence of such bias in plain view
If “the police” don’t want to be viewed as a homogeneous pro-fascist force, they need to not act like one.
As a disclaimer, I'm not American, so take my feelings with a grain of salt.
[1] https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/13469023580061040...
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/06/us/washington-dc-pro...
If countries weren't afraid of other gasses being used in war, they'd use tear gas on the battlefield
So the murder rate is 2/24=0.0833_
Somalia had a murder rate of 599 deaths in 2015. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intention...
599/365=1.641
That being said, at least 1 of the killings at the CHAZ/CHOP was by the self proclaimed security forces. As far as I know no one has ever been identified or held accountable. If the idea is that you do not need police/ want to hold them to greater accountability because they are violent and kill innocent people but your replacement does the same thing...then what is the point?
Siri is reporting CHAZ had a population of 80(??) and Somolia a population of 15MM. The respective per capita rates would be 0.025 and ~3.99e-5
I am not sure how I misread that.
and also quite illegal and a complete breakdown of rule of law
1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitol_Hill_Autonomous_Zone#S...
I don't know what the murder rate in the neighborhood was prior to the occupation, but I'm pretty confident it wasn't nearly that high.
1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate
The week before the CHOP started was full the sounds of helicopters overhead, flashbang explosions, and "less lethal" rounds being fired. The week after CHOP started was quiet. Comparing the shift from yesterday to today in DC's Capitol Hill against the shift from June 7 to June 8 in Seattle's Capitol Hill, the CHOP was extraordinarily peaceful. That's mostly the comparison I was making by initially saying it was "quite peaceful": the day before and the day after in those two locations.
But even then, the CHOP compared to the same location today (for example) is honestly pretty similarly peaceful. It was certainly a relatively violent time for that street, but I didn't feel at all at risk walking through it. I also didn't have any problem living 3 blocks away from a place that many news agencies tried to construe as violent anarchy.
CHOP wasn't significantly different
No, this is a key difference between the sides of this issue. The people in DC aren’t looking for a response on social media - they’re looking for a response in real life, with arms if necessary. I think they may well get it this time, too.
The Left doesn’t seem to realize the table stakes are different with this.
Everything else going on is a show. And it is working insofar as Trump's sore loser supporters have sent him more money after the election than before the election. They love the lies. They hate the truth. They lack the coping skill to deal with truth, so they sign up for the lies. They purchase lies as a product, that is what Trump sells. It's who he has always been and always will be.
Trump right now: we had an election, that was stolen from us, it was a landslide election, and everyone knows it, especially the other side...but you have to go home now, we have to have peace.
they took it away from me, from you, from our country
this was a fraudulent election...so many are treated with evil...go home in peace
Translation: We won, but you gotta go home. They stole from me, from you, from the country, but you gotta go home. They are evil, but you gotta go home.
He is unfit for office. He's ill. The proper thing to do is wrap up the counting of ascertained Electoral College votes, declare Biden the winner. And then the House should immediately impeach Trump. And then the Senators can choose to remove him from office and ban him from ever holding public office again. That is the proper way to end this.
Whether they are delusional or they want an autocracy, I can't assess and it doesn't even matter. I'd consider both example of mental illness, but this is a country with a culture that persists in not taking mental illness seriously. Including the one manifested by the sitting president. The solution is to remove him from office without any delay beyond the certification of the Electoral College.
If congress wants to meet on zoom, they can
HN is pretty good at this when it comes to other topics, when when it turns political, everyone pulls out their partisan membership card.
Discussing political events in a rational manner will never be a bad thing.
I know it's just anecdotal, but I think it's valuable to say that the loudest aren't a fully representative sample.
All Internet forums are either too small and cliquish for people to have different opinions, or large enough to have snack rise to the top over actual analysis.
Is there a general political discussion group in the Internet that's both unbiased and high quality? I cannot think of a single one.
This further increases the divide and makes it harder for us to have any non-extremist (whether left or right) and nuanced discussions.
Listening in to the stream it seems like a woman was shot in the neck once she went in/broke into the capitol building. Someone who was with her looked in and saw that. Again, this is as reported in the above stream - no visual or other verification provided.
Edit: modified 'someone who was with her outside the window' to 'someone who was with her'. He did an interview on camera and stated that they did enter the building. Based on what he said I would categorize it as a 'forced' entry with warnings not to proceed further when the event happened.
A woman participating in the insurrection at the US Capitol has died following being shot.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...
Here is a livestream of the initial run on the steps: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_dGyEhnhGdw&feature=youtu.be
It's hard to tell but it looks like a door was either breached or opened to the far left. There is a loud thud happening at the same time but it's hard to tell if that's what caused it.
It's seems to be off the side of the barricades so it doesn't appear anyone was "let in".
edit: I've also read that the doors were opened to any protestors. There is no attack.
Source: https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/CSPCoupsCodebook2015.pdf
"This claim of election fraud is disputed, and this Tweet can’t be replied to, Retweeted, or liked due to a risk of violence"
That's a new one. Twitter openly admits the content is dangerous, but they still don't want to ban him so they carved out a special quarantine mode instead.
MQ-9 time at this point...
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/congress-electoral-co...
The only way for Trump to remain president past 12pm Jan 20th is for the joint session to declare him president.
Twitter promptly marked the video as misinformation and disables likes, comments, and shares, basically preventing the message from getting out.
I'm not even sure what the right move for Twitter is there.
> Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have > been done to protect our Country and our Constitution, > giving States a chance to certify a corrected set of > facts, not the fraudulent or inaccurate ones which they > were asked to previously certify. USA demands the truth!
(source: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/13469004345402408...)
If this is not an acknowledgment of an ongoing coup...
Mike Pence:
Peaceful protest is the right of every American but this attack on our Capitol will not be tolerated and those involved will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
It looks harmless, but our amplifying algorithms gave a voice and a platform that led to this event. They created huge echo chambers with different set of facts and realities for different groups.
If you look deeply, this is partly our fault.
I may get downvoted for this. HN also has this variant of voting algorithm, and in a way it is an echo chamber of “what we think is true”. Just look at all the extreme FB hate comments.
I don’t have good answers other than, we really really need to invest in fact checking technology that is open, introspectable and objective.
It is so easy to spread hate and half truths that look like real truths.
We humans are wired to get dopamine hits from surprising/extreme/unusual information. It excites us so we click. The algorithms amplify it. Done at the scale of billions of people, it changes the fabric of society.
While we as devs are merely making “integer count field in a database” and a “react view that shows items in an array sorted by counts” that ends up shifting what the viewers believe in.
We are what we read and share.
Quoting a tweet by Sam Mintz
> Vice President Pence, who was evacuated from the Capitol, should seriously consider working with the Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment to preserve democracy.
It's like making a pie with a segment of apple pie and 7 segments of shit, and saying "Look at this beautiful apple pie I made you".
Or, to be closer to reality, it's you seeing Trump's shit pie (with a bit of apple) and announcing "Look the great apple pie Donald Trump made us!"
Now this desperate man called for protest, and what did he get? Thousands.
It's a tough moment for our nation, but I am reassured. First the people, then the courts, then the states, now congress and the Vice President have all repudiated Trump's dictatorial aspirations.
Today certainly will reverberate decently, going forward.
It's like we're watching the same exact movie and yet we're seeing two totally different films.
They are using a % of attendee's to come up with that, so if a "protest" was attended by 1,000 and only 10 people were arrested it was billed as "mostly peaceful" even though looting, fires, etc occurred.
It is a changing of the definition of what most reasonable people would consider a "peaceful protest"
no, reporting that says "1% of rallies had X reported" is not using a percentage of attendees.
And if seen myself at protests (not in the US/at BLM, to be clear) how much damage a dozen shitheads out of a few thousand attendees sadly can cause, and I would still qualify those as mostly peaceful (as did the authorities). This is in no way an excuse for those rioting, but it is for, you know, the vast majority of peaceful attendants (who in an escalating situation quite often are forced to stay, even if they don't want to)
edit from downthread
And there we go, they're breaking in now. Time to clean house.
Ctrl+F for windows.
Yes, the ones currently storming the capitol are, likely, deluded they are fighting the good fight, but their stand at this point is little more than symbolic at this point.
My beef, though not a surprised beef, is with the commander in chief, who sees it as a way to stay in the hearts and minds of the his base. In some ways, the guy is very smart. It just scary when he is playing with fire like that.
This is chickens coming home to roost, Democrats have been so busy egging on violent riots in the poor areas of town that they've created an atmosphere where those actually affected by heavy handed government actions are going to see this as the only way out.
HN is a reflection of interests at play on new submissions and the front page. This isn't perfect, though it's often reasonably good.
"BREAKING: A source tells me The Defense Department has just denied a request by DC officials to deploy the National Guard to the US Capitol." -Aaron C. Davis (Investigative Reporter for The Washington Post)
Source: Washington Post reporter https://twitter.com/byaaroncdavis/status/1346908166030766080
Either put up a fight or give up on democracy.
I think the optimists were hoping that these protesters would calm down if given the space. But at this point, its clear that they aren't calming down and need to be met with more force.
Hopefully things remain somewhat peaceful. I don't think anyone's actually been hurt yet: just lots of property damage right now.
The Guard was requested yesterday, in advance of the protests, to prevent this kind of thing.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/d-c-mayor-calls-nationa...
Took more than a few dozen minutes.
I've only really been following things when shit hit the fan today. It took multiple dozens of minutes after the Capital was breached before the National Guard was called in, which is still too long in my opinion.
Tear gas was deployed and live fire (not rubber bullets) exchanged within the Capitol.
But, yeah, allowing them to breach the Capitol and open fire within the building is very different than we've seen with protests with a different ideological bent. But it's consistent with how right-wing white protestors have been treated elsewhere in the country recently by law enforcement.
But I agree, Capitol Police should have never let this even happen. They knew there was a big protest. They should have been 100% ready for this and they totally dropped the ball.
Good thing very few people even went in and there was little damage. Well except for that women I mentioned. Anyone even know her name yet? Wonder if there will be murals of her.
Biden doesn't get to say that. The democrats have been vicious, mean, nasty and deceitful. Big Tech and Big Media practically covered up the entire Hunter Biden situation claiming it wasn't true; and now it's clear he was under FBI investigation.
You don't get to shit on 50% of the country, tell them they're all racist Nazis for supporting Trump, and then tell them, "We should unify." No state has gotten their day in court. The federal judges are all cowards. People have nothing else. Had the 7th Circuit at least heard testimony before ruling or the Supreme Court given more than a three line bullshit statement on standing, people would at least believe somebody was listening.
No body is listening.
People are losing faith in the system.
I have lost faith in the system, and I have never been a democrat or a republican. I've always been a centrist.
Still, being saved by the ineptitude of the "protestors" is still a damning indictment of the country.
That election .. that was a coup.
(Some Democrats are calling for an impeachment, which wouldn’t help.)
I think it would help tremendously. If nothing else, it's important for the history books.
Edit:
How are the rioters even able to breach the security and allowed/able to stay there? Feels like some very bad policing - are they overwhelmed or is it intentional?
History will not look kindly on people who turned a blind eye.
https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/infrastructure-s...
So yes, Trump has been riling up his base with words of stolen election, which has led to this moment.
It gives the impression of there being plenty of evidence, but non of the items I looked at actually upheld what they claim.
Can someone explain what I’m missing?
You should be scared of the people who have lost faith in a court full of cowards and an election system that was flooded with mail in ballots from dead people.
1. Being willing to admit they may be wrong
2. Having access to a diverse information diet
But the past two decades have shown erosion of not only legal Free Speech, but practical free speech:
* Whereas previously they were just ignored (or even rebutted), today employees, students, and professors are all punished administratively for saying something that contradicts the narrative of the predominant members, or that may be offensive to someone. "If the federal government won't do it, let's restrict free speech on the ground-level."
* It is difficult to broaden your information diet, even intentionally. The platforms of yore that provided a place for free debate are empty, with everyone having migrated to social media where they can form disjoint sets defined by their ideology. Ever try having a dialectic on Twitter with someone of an opposing ideology? Haha, good luck.
* Expanding on ^, folks that aren't actively seeking diversity of thought have no natural avenue of exposure to information that contradicts their ideology. Whatever information delivery mechanism they choose today is, by default, going to agree with them.
* All of the above results in: staunchly maintaining your correctness in the face of opposition is rewarded far more strongly than admitting the possibility of wrongness
* Online radicalization makes in-person dialogue even harder; there are fewer and fewer opportunities for two moderates to debate when the possible participants are further across the spectrum than ever
Although restricting offensive speech has the upfront benefit of not hurting our iddly-widdly-fweelings, this is the price we pay for abandoning free speech.
For further reading, I recommend Kindly Inquisitors: The New Attacks on Free Thought [0]
[0] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/703086.Kindly_Inquisitor...
thus the 2 realities the top post is referring to.
Go watch the George Floyd body cameras. All of them. The full 1 hour (30 min per officer). The story is ENTIRELY different than the one that was fed to us.
People don't trust those channels because it's so easy to look at literally any other non-mainstream source to see how we've been constantly lied to.
“Sudden discovery of 50 thousand votes”, and suggestions that “Democratic counties reporting last” means they can arbitrarily add votes as needed.
This isn’t some extreme view it’s being endorsed by both elected officials and pundits. I am genuinely concerned that people have forgotten just how fragile democracy is and are trying to score political points at the expense of critical institutions.
That's assuming the losing minority still wants democracy. Maybe they just want King-for-Life Trump.
political news is a waste of time and probably a net negative for an individual. That's MY truth which you won't find on CNN or breitbart's twitter feed.
I actively avoid political news (it sucks it is showing up here on HN).
EDIT: I don't like CNN fwiw.
I was mainly talking about political news, I do occasionally browse some mainstream business news.
There is no “CNN Politics” TV channel, nor is there a “CNN World” (“CNN International” is a thing, though) or “CNN Business” (there used to be CNNfn, but its been gone for more than a decade) channel.
“Business”, “Politics”, and “World” are sections of the CNN website; the corresponding content would generally all be covered, on TV, by the main CNN channel.
This is always the problem with suppressed speech. Nonsense will still be spewed, but no one reasonable gets a chance to counter it with analysis and cool it down.
Zeitgeist is broken.
You're not seeing the connection because you aren't thinking at a high enough level of abstraction. The entire social media and entertainment edifice is built on the objective of telling you what you want to hear. This basically generates a rapidly polarizing schism with a tendency toward radicalization, anda natural aversion toward established info sources on course correction, because if they didn't get it right the first time, or second, or third time, then why give the benefit of a doubt?
You can argue these people weren't looking for truth in thefirst place, but you're missing out on that the "Truth" is not the same to all people, and as it turns out, you rely on the fluid nature of non-bubbled organization and communication to ground disruptive social energy and disharmony.
I agree. See my comment here[1]. I simply don't see how that is the result or evidence of too little free speech. The opposite seems true. The problem isn't that people can't say what they believe. It is that people have the freedom to knowingly lie in order to corrupt the beliefs of others.
Over the last three decades, news organizations have traded in their neutrality and integrity for political and "narrative" influence. It is exceedingly difficult to find information presented without some attempt to mislead.
The short version: There are no more Walter Cronkites or Edward R. Murrows the nation trusts to present the news without filter or spin.
That coupled with the algorithmically enhanced echo-chambers of social media you mention, multiplied by two decades of teaching outrage and protest instead of critical thinking and history, gets you this.
No, they haven't. News organizations have always had strong political and narrative-driven tendencies, what has changed is that the media is more diverse in bias and thus the illusion of neutrality that came from the period where the major national media spoke with nearly uniform bias and agenda is lost.
When other outlets shill for the RNC, that isn't the same as having "political tendencies."
In the past, these maneuvers would have been considered conflicts of interest and a violation journalistic ethics. Today, we don't have many practicing journalists. We have "here's a lefty and here's a righty, let's watch 'em argue on screen" passed off as news.
The thing about "what has happened" is that it actually leaves a lot of room for bad faith reporting. You can never include everything. What isn't reported is just as important as what is, whether it's whole stories, certain viewpoints, context, anything.
What criticisms did mainstream news outlets level at George W. Bush that you felt were attacks? At what point in the lead-up to lies-based invasion do you feel it's ok to say "Bush and Cheney just might be lying here, folks."?
The moment Obama was elected those counts stopped.
We all want to believe that nice guy on TV. Is honest and neutral.
This is almost never the case.
Notice how in the first few months of the pandemic the daily stats were front page? Like, every day and multiple times per day. Now we just occasionally get the "USA breaks single day record" second or third level heading with no specific numbers.
But, I promise you in 4 years people will be remember this as "Remember when the media was reporting the pandemic deaths non-stop when Trump was in office but it _suddenly_ stopped when Biden was in office?"
Just like people seem to remember when "Mitch Mcconnell" overrode Obama's veto. The veto both houses and both parties overrode. 97-1 in the senate.
Couple that with people remembering things how they want, or believing what they want to hear, and Bob is you uncle.
Have you ever actually read examples of newspapers and news reporting from the earlier parts of the 20th century? The dishonest, mendacious bias in favor of any media source's ideological preference was extreme to a degree that even today isn't readily visible. Certain media empires were absolutely ruled by their owners and even major papers like the New York Times were often loaded in slant towards certain ideological narratives. Just to name one example: Read about Walter Duranty. Things were even more vicious in the 19th century.... I have no idea where this notion of once fair, objective news sources comes from but it's certainly not rooted in the practical reality (referring in all of this to U.S media and politics, regarding other countries things get more ambiguous and complciated probably).
Whereas Walter Duranty was a big deal in the 20s & 30s, in much more fragmented & volatile times. Although how much their fragmentation resembles ours I don't know. They had many far-out newspapers but still only a few radio shows, and perhaps a larger role for shared institutions like churches & public schools?
Sure, but that reality was a top-down creation. How much airtime did dissidents get? Socialists? Women? Marginalised people? And I don't mean reporting on them, but stories by them.
But I'd like to highlight other forces. One was technological, 3 TV channels or whatever was all they could do, and this implied that there was going to be a pretty high degree of conformity. You couldn't broadcast weird Italian movies because only a few percent were interested. The 4 big car companies who bought the ads which paid the bills really didn't want to be associated with anything partisan, they all needed to sell to everyone.
Another was historical / emotional. The nation had just emerged from this gigantic world war, and it was a spectacular victory, which gave enormous prestige to the huge centralized machines built to fight it. They built a lot of similar machines back home, big corporations with a commander-in-chief who wasn't a self-made robber barron, he was promoted up the ranks. Big unions, and big regulation.
This experience also squashed a lot of earlier differences. You say "Women? Marginalised people?" but this seems like a modern take, I think they would have said "Irish? Polish? Jewish?". These earlier identities and divisions were eroding in favor of this shared one, I mean, a Catholic could be elected president, that was a big deal.
But all of these are gone now. So perhaps 100 years ago is a better guide than 50 years ago.
> These earlier identities and divisions were eroding in favor of this shared one
Shared by white people, for the most part.
I'm not sure what you mean in your penultimate paragraph. "identities and divisions eroding" is only partly true, surely. You could certainly argue the opposite is true - see the women's lib and civil rights movements for examples of people fighting back against conformity.
Right, the experience of black people was pretty distinct, 20s-60s-now, and those are really interesting stories. And there's a fractal of smaller group stories, too. But I think the story arc from hyper-partisan 19th C news-politics to Walter Cronkite to Twitter can be understood (to a large degree) before zooming in that far. Although once you do, then indeed, the present tendency to focus on smaller groups' stories does look like part of the same Cronkite -> Twitter arc.
I wish more people thought this way. We think we're so smart!
In off to bed, but thank you for the reply, I understand more what you meant now.
Rupert Murdock called on Republican political strategist Roger Ailes in 1996 when creating Fox News. Ailes launched and then ran Fox News as its CEO for decades.
This is the same guy who worked as a media adviser to basically every successful Republican presidential campaign.. Nixon, Reagan, Bush.. and even Trump (before Ailes died, and after a sexual misconduct scandal finally got him canned at Fox).
Ailes was so influential as a strategist that he was even credited for one of Bush senior's wins back in the day. And he built and reigned at Fox News for 20+ years.
So we had a major republican political operator put in charge of a news network by a global political operator (Murdoch) who only got US citizenship as it was a requirement for US television station ownership. And who had a history of using his media empire to shape political narrative for influence.
The frustrating thing is that Murdoch's influence shaping has always been more about accumulating power than towards spreading specific ideology. In Australia in the 60s and 70s, he backed the faction pushing for universal free health care, free college education for all Australians, and public ownership of Australia's oil, gas and mineral resources.
Sounds very un-Fox-like, doesn't it? It was the in-road to political power, the faction that would get him the most influence by supporting. There was a write-up some years ago in the UK that delves a bit more into his history (as he has also been peddling influence in the UK for decades as well):
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a-man-of-selfish-lo...
But tying this back to Fox News.. he came to the US, built a TV network and used that foundation to build a news station. This was a push to become a major political controller by building and embedding Fox News as the media arm of the Republican party.
They used this to condition their base. The lead-up to today is decades of people turning on FOX to watch Geraldo, sticking around for the news, then wandering off with talking points stuffed into their heads by influencers with an agenda who were presenting the news.
And the strategy was so successful that it generates mimics to the model. The most evil I see is Sinclair Media buying up local news stations and putting the same talking points into the mouths of local pundits across the nation. There's a creepy video compilation that highlights the tactics of this influence machinery by showing clips from each of these local news outlets with different talking heads each repeating the same points.
I don't think there can be economically, without regulating (supply limiting) news media.
They were debatably on par with politicians. But increase the number of news outlets, and the importance of any anchor decreases.
Consequently, their ability to ask hard questions without losing access to their sources decreases.
The censorship and punishment you claim as new is plainly and obviously not a recent development, look at how socialist and capitalist ideas have been treated for the last century. Or how American evangelism has treated "dangerous" ideas for even longer than that. https://www.amazon.com/Scandal-Evangelical-Mind-Mark-Noll/dp... , for instance. Never have we been a country full of people willing to admit we're wrong. But we're increasingly a country of people being pandered to by those who want to make a buck telling us we're not actually wrong.
I think you'd more easily make the OPPOSITE argument, that our norms about what is acceptable speech have eroded too far, that we've taken free speech to an unhealthy extreme (such as how our tech platforms will happily amplify the speech of extremists - in fact, they PREFER to do this, because their algorithms have figured out that it gets more ad views).
If it's acceptable for politicians to respond to losing popularity by claiming fraud - as Trump has been doing for months - then you are on the path that leads here. If the resulting violence is not acceptable, but you ALSO don't want to restrict Trump's speech with stronger norms, what do you propose instead?
How many previous presidents would be inciting this sort of thing? How is that the result of less free speech?
I doubt that this is a technical issue. Sure, the internet, social media and filter bubbles will have an influence. But there are so many political forces at play, so many angles under which the situation could be explained.
> How many previous presidents would be inciting this sort of thing? How is that the result of less free speech?
That's an old debate in history - are specific events caused by specific people, or are the political currents so strong that no matter who would've been in a specific position, history would have likely taken the same course?
But here it is for certain that this specific coup hinges on the absolute leader figure Trump is for his followers. And it follows what he says all the time.
> But here it is for certain that this specific coup hings on the absolute leader figure Trump is for his followers. And what he says all the time.
Even there it's both, I think. Trump is part of a trend towards valuing immediate power over everything else, and being willing to play dirty to keep that power. His followers listen to him in large part because they've been primed by the media for decades to distrust the "mainstream" (where "mainstream" apparently doesn't include some of the people with the largest audiences, but actually just means "people who disagree with you").
The mystery is just how those people maintain the cognitive dissonance of being "pro speech" and "pro democracy" when they've tuned out everything else and are just focused on power in what they perceive as a war...
> Equally right or wrong is he who says that Napolean went to Moscow because he wanted to, and perished because Alexander desired his destruction, and he who says that an undermined hill weighing a million tons fell because the last labourer struck it for the last time with his pickaxe. In historic events the so-called great men are labels giving names to events, and like labels they have but the smallest connection with the event itself.
> The mystery is just how those people maintain the cognitive dissonance of being "pro speech" and "pro democracy" when they've tuned out everything else and are just focused on power in what they perceive as a war...
Yes, that is a fascinating mystery. But one has to keep in mind: Many of the people that just tried a coup today and effectively tried to dismantle the democratic system in the US by installing a dictator will think of themselves as defenders of democracy. There will be of course hard right wing nationalist terrorists in that crowd - the last pro-trump protests have shown that - but there can only be so many of those.
The ruling class says whatever it wants with belief that there can never be any negative results for any action they take (max "freeness"),
the opposition can't talk about anything in a substantive way because all they do is react to the inane and random political grenades thrown by the ruling party (very constrained "freeness" really. Being forced to respond to propaganda-maximizing controversy after propaganda-effectiveness-maximizing controversy is a record that sucks to play and is definitely forced onto the air more than everyone wants -- and the targets of the propaganda blame the wrong people for why they have to keep listening to it ... )
the people are left with no meaningful political voice (0 freeness of speech) because there's virtually 0 correlation between anything being talked about in the political dances and anything that is actually sufficiently practical to talk about as to be worth the cognitive attention required to talk about it ... You can't have free political speech when there are no political engagements worth talking about ...
The "team sport" that is the current political landscape is not at all a fun or useful game -- some amount of fun and usefulness is gonna need to be found and introduced to the process of defining government to help move out of this ...
I think this riot is best understood as being actively organized by the current ruling party.
I think there is a clear free speech issue in the current politics though -- systematically devaluing the potential for productive political talk is a form of free speech restriction -- it's a ddos attack against rational discourse - which has the effect of reducing the value of political discourse in general.
Anecdotally I’ve been reading a lot of old news (60s-90s) and it’s amazing to read as a retrospective. It has given me context for how we arrived to present day and it’s funny to see some of the same social phenomenons repeating themselves.
This is irrational and hostile. Regardless, what's unfolding is not a result of people more frequently experiencing normal social reactions to their public statements and actions, nor a result of the exceptional and justly criticized cases where those reactions are based on error. That line of criticism is usually just a dishonest way to excuse other behaviors, like we are witnessing here, that are dangerous to society and poisonous to discourse.
It needs to be made clear that the path of progress is littered with hurt feelings, and that the importance of our feelings is significantly dwarfed by the collective good of science and democracy.
So it doesn't seem to have much explanatory power as to how we got to the point where the President is inciting those rioters... the President is literally telling them to be offended, and to be angry. Speech promoting violence. How is that speech not itself a threat to democracy?
The fact that it applies to both perhaps suggests validity, no?
It needs to be made clear that the path of
progress is littered with hurt feelings, and
that the importance of our feelings is
significantly dwarfed by the collective
good of science and democracy.
This is a false dichotomy.The human race is not a zero-sum game with "feelings" on one side and "progress" on the other!
Don't lose sight of why we're making all of this progress in the first place.
We are not building more highways and inventing more computers just for the heck of it. We are -- or should be -- doing it to improve the happiness of ourselves and those who come after us.
Y'know, happiness? One of those pesky feelings you mentioned?
We used to teach our children to "have a thick skin." "Sticks and stones will break my bones, but words can never hurt me." When someone took offense we told them to "grow up."
Being offended, especially on behalf of someone else, is useless. Teach people not to take offense. They'll be happier.
Words to affect people and if you don't respond to insult, you will be bullied and insulted more and more. You will not have respect and you will lose ability to influence what is going on with and around you.
In addition, men used to hold duels over words, so it was not even historical standards.
> When someone took offense we told them to "grow up."
Yes, some adults were enabling bullies like that. Especially if they themselves did not like the target. But it still was exactly that - enabling.
Just letting it go or being submissive is not functional strategy to deal with these issues.
Teach people not to take offense. They'll be happier.
Nonsense. Again, not a dichotomy. You can have "thick skin", a strong sense of self, not easily be harmed by others' words and not be an asshole.I am expressing my belief that progress and happiness pair pretty well -- they should not be at odds with each other.
In addition to earning a living, it's why I got into this industry. Is that not why most of us are here? Aren't we here to write code that makes things better for people? Perhaps not on world changing levels, but hopefully on some level even if it's just making the file upload box on some fourth-rate social media site a little easier to use?
This is never said or implied.
The way I interpret this argument is this: the world wasn't meant to be pleasing all the time. Excluding unpleasant facts from one's information diet because it hurts their feelings is what the OP is arguing against. It is absolutely possible to present hostile/offensive statements that are also true. Feel free to agree/disagree, but it's quite rational line of thinking.
Rather than making conjectures about why today is different, it might be more helpful to investigate why some time periods weren't rife with tribalism.
A simple example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry#/media/Fil...
In 1950 the US produced 80% of the world's cars. Similar story for appliances and many other products. That wasn't a normal state. So slowly it went down.
So the US is slowly reversing to its mean. Remember, robber barons, the Great Depression, the New Deal.
I am fully for it, but I believe the ones who need to change the informational diet are not ones who you think they need.
If today's events make any surprise to HN readers. I will tell them they spent not last 4 years, but like 20 years under a rock, and have no idea whatsoever what moves the political pendulum to the right with such force. And they don't want to hear why it is so.
Here on HN, 3 years ago I said that US is inching ever closer to the second civil war, and the point of no returns gets gets more, and more visible.
Then, I was told that such talks are not welcome on HN, and it's below the esteemed patrons of our establishment to think of such lowly matters.
Voila, sealed ears, what they lead to. Not only on HN, but across the elites of entire Western world.
Is that what you were predicting 3 years ago, still predicting?
Because all I see are rioting by people who have lost any upward mobility they might have once had.
They'll be burning Teslas next but that doesn't make it a civil war.
What is the biggest social crisis there now, for every opportunistic force to take advantage off?
One need to be very, very blind not to see it coming, especially living in a major US city.
Pretty sure the monied interests have no desire for civil war — the opposite was the case in the mid 19th Century.
True, really a lot. In needs a nation on the edge for it to decide to turn on itself. And a nation on the edge it is.
> Pretty sure the monied interests have no desire for civil war — the opposite was the case in the mid 19th Century.
And so thought monied interests of the Old World when a wave of civil wars sped through the continent, and the Spring of Nations happened after few decades of turmoil.
And historians err here, taking desirable, for believable. "The Two Terrible Decades," aren't called that for nothing. They were devastating for both of Europe's Old, and New Money. It were the same upper classes socialites who wrote the term in the history books after all.
It would help if there were some geographical lines, as well. Are you envisioning the next civil war will be simultaneous sieges of all the major cities in the US?
No, most likely the same North-South split, with a bit of interior, vs exterior element to it.
Plus, when the shit hits the fan, the reasonable among us seem to suddenly conclude maybe we don't really care to fight about this. Yesterday is a classic example. These folks at the capitol like to think they were going to start the war and everyone else would join in. What really happens, of course, is that they find out how limited their numbers are, and that regular people will simply direct the police to squash the insurrection.
And this divide lines uncannily along the lines from centuries ago.
Come again? The BLM riots went on for months, multiple people died, a section of a major city was occupied for weeks (two people murdered by the self appointed security force), a police precinct was burned down (as well as many building in several cities), etc. And you’re talking about the the grave felonies involved in a single day of occupying a public building...
Isn't this what ultimately fuels all civil wars?
It's the practical erosion of Free Speech
It's more like the result of free speech.Or at least it is, in a woefully undereducated country with large segments of the population that reject science and value ignorance.
Careful, vetted, fact-based reporting is incredibly laborious.
It takes orders of magnitude more time, money, and effort than it takes your uncle Steve to fire off a group text message with a bunch of conspiracy theories or share his anti-vax opinions in yet another wonderfully insightful all-caps Facebook screed. And yet, they are treated with the same level of respect in a country like this.
Further restriction of free speech at the government level is not the answer. That would be even worse than what we have now.
The problem is, there is no answer. This is simply where our values and our ignorance has taken us.
This matters both because some could end up being used if the country ignites, and also because US serves as the linchpin of the MAD doctrine, which kept the world relatively stable for over a half century now. US becoming unable to credibly deter other nuclear nations would probably not cause a nuclear war, but would definitely leave space for other big powers to make big changes in the geopolitical landscape.
Anything can be made more inflammatory if you remove key details while still remaining factually correct.
- Tim punched Bob
- Bob punched Tim
- Bob and Tim shake hands
Reported as...
- Bob punched Tim
Factually correct but lacking context. Unless the reader knows the entire story be putting it together from multiple reports, this will create a skewed view of any report. This happens all the time with headline circulation where nobody reads the article.
If you’ve ever seen reporting or articles on something where you have deep expertise, you’ll spot it immediately because you know exactly what’s been left out. Nobody else does though.
And honestly, I have no idea what to do about it unless somebody can create a site to aggregate news from multiple sources to highlight what’s missing from each one.
Reflecting the same joke for Fox News is left as an exercise to the reader.
A tactic that I suspect would be useful is the ability to call out specific things—"Yeah, a bunch of this stuff is arguable and murky, but that thing you said right there is wrong and I can prove it; I will stake a chunk of my reputation on this, and we will litigate the issue, and if I'm successful, it should damage your reputation and boost mine"—combined with people expecting to be in the system for long enough that reputations are worthwhile. ("Wrong" will include "factually wrong" and might also include "against the rules of this system"—it might be sensible to have rules about claims needing to be backed up by certain kinds of evidence.)
I think at least some parts of academia were supposed to work something like this, and maybe a few parts of it actually do.
Also, it will be interesting is which "news" outlets label this as riots and which label it as protests.
This seems at least like the type of experiment that would be worth trying.
I used to think if I read through media with opposing biases then I'd understand the real story. But in most cases there's just a huge amount of relevant context missing even if the articles are factually correct.
In the same way that you can present statistical data in a way to support a view when the data doesn't actually support it despite being factually accurate.
I think a lot of HN readers who are fairly sophisticated forget that half of the world is not. Diverse information diets are not a good thing, because most people are not equipped to understand what is reasonable.
What has changed is the scale of information though. We used to have small amounts of information and opinions to evaluat, but now there's huge amounts of information to deal with, and those techniques haven't updated to match.
Peer review of scientific publications is an example there - peer review used to involve things like visiting somebody's lab to try and disprove their new type of radiation theories, and now there's so many articles to review that nobody's reading them all, or putting the same level of review in
2020: 64
2019: 11
2018: 13
2017: 9
2016: 4
2015: 4
[0] https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1346656330149470211
I don't see any evidence that this spreadsheet is the result of someone systematically reviewing every case of a professor or other academic being dismissed, rebuked or whatever since 2014, so I don't really see how it could constitute a trend.
I do think it's a problem that a lot of employees can and do get fired over saying dumb stuff - a lot of times that they didn't mean to say. Does this include Trump's famous "Grab them by the p#$$y" comment? Maybe.
However, there's this idea that people should basically be able to send out hate speech memos in a company and not be apprehended for "speaking their mind". These are completely different. One of them is premeditated idiocracy. The other is a mistake. We shouldn't confuse the two.
Do you have a specific citation for that? There was Kent State. Before that they were racially and earlier, sexually, ethnically, and religiously, segregated.
What specific time period are you thinking of?
For instance, Galileo was not treated well for going against conventional wisdom, and nobody liked vis viva because it wasnt newton's momentum.
Are there people losing their jobs and being cancelled for going against the Copenhagen interpretation today?
Back in the 50s and 60s, Pete Seeger was banned from performing to anyone but young children by the FBI because he may have been a member of the Communist party -- including at educational institutions. Is that still happening today? Has that changed or something?
What's the difference in analytic technique that has changed since that time period? People are still writing essays, running experiments and measuring p values. These are still the methods being taught, too
One of my hobbies puts me among people who pretty homogeneously lean right. They say more or less the exact same thing about the left and on the same list of topics no less. I can paraphrase talking points if you would like. There is a fundamental and irreconcilable difference in beliefs between the left and the right when it comes to the what is right and what is wrong.
I think if you expanded your list of issues slightly you would be very hard pressed to find someone who is not a hardcore partisan from either party that does not believe that the "other party" has it right on at least one or two issues.
Yes, arguably because certain political elements have made it their business to make damned sure those organs fail.
When educated people consistently vote for one party over the other, it's absurd to expect the losing party to support improvements to education. You'd have to be, well, poorly educated to think that.
And we all know who loves the poorly educated...
If I were to guess, it seems pubic policy in recent decades has often been founded on shaky ground. Anti-communism, anti-drug policy, various health/welfare policies, and so on are often not particularly evidence based. I can see this leading to a broader acceptance of dual-reality "facts" like we're seeing now. Words and truth lose meaning.
But is that new? I have no idea.
I hear this all the time now. But let's be clear -- this is the talk of fascism.
Democracy is built on trusting the populace to self govern. Saying that the populace is too dumb or uninformed to be trusted to self govern is inherently anti-democratic.
EDIT: I removed a line that was superfluous to my point and was drawing attention away from my actual point.
The USA is both a representative democracy and a republic - the same as most other democracies on this planet.
Republic just means that the government is a public affair - there is no monarch. It's the opposite of a monarchy.
I removed the "We are not a democracy." line in my previous comment to refocus it on what I was really trying to say.
https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Hamilton/01-01-02-01...
US life expectancy may have plateaued, but doesn't appear to be in decline, and it's still above even Cuba, which has perhaps the highest amount of social spending on healthcare as portion of GDP.
Meanwhile, Venezuela and Mexico are in clear declines.
With regards to which extremes of the political spectrum have the highest body counts, I would say the far-left Marxist states are the clear winners, with somewhere in the region of 42 to 160 million killed.
[0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?tab=chart...
Here is a copy of the chart with some additional countries: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?tab=chart...
Australia is even higher than Sweeden, yet both the UK and Australia are currently governed by conservative parties.
I'm an Australian myself, and in favor of socialized medicine, I just get annoyed by characterization of left vs right as a good vs evil scenario, as our polarized political discussion so often likes to do.
The answer is instead to support human rights and freedoms, and fight back against attempts to take away our freedoms no matter who is trying to take them away.
Whereas something like "because most people are not equipped to understand what is reasonable, therefore we must provide them with the tools to understand what is reasonable" isn't necessarily fascist.
If you talk to anyone defending the anti-democractic occupation of the nation's capital today, you'll see that their response is typically is pro-fascist in this regard.
Even this morning, they quoted Adolf Hitler at the capital:
https://twitter.com/always_margot/status/1346578062700400647
The grandiose, arrogant, and blind social elites calling out the popular masses to be socially alienated.
Whose social alienation it would be?
Of course such masses will be of service to any any much significant opportunist group.
People will vote even for a devil himself if one promises to get rid them off such elites.
Just like that, 20 years ago, in a country far, far away, the destitute populace decided, in its sane mind, to vote into power not anybody, but an ex-officer from a mafia-like intelligence organisation people worked so hard to remove from power just 10 years prior.
The wealth divide in the U.S. has been steadily increasing, and the solution for the working class (higher education) isn't working like it used to, even making it worse for young people. This has lead to an angry working class who feel justified in blaming their problems on other out-groups, whether that's BLM, democrats, China, Mexicans, tech companies, doctors, lgtbq, etc.
This is what fascism is feeding on in America, and it has to stop.
There, we are on the same page.
A good historical example I brought up few weeks ago somewhere on HN.
A shameful truth from NSDAP days Germans did not come to admit even to this day is why Kristallnacht has happened.
The prime majority of Germans were not antisemites in thirties, and not even in forties. The image of the schizophrenoid—paranoid antisemite was completely uncharacteristic for anybody, but for single digit percentage of fanatics not unlike the current rightist crowd in America.
So, if most Germans did not drink the NSDAP coolaid, why did Kristallnacht happen?
It happened not because of Jewish people being Jewish as such. It happened because of Jewish people being rich (or being deemed so,) and NSDAP effectively promising complete impunity for looting.
I don't think anyone in their right mind would try arguing that most jewish people in Germany at the time were rich, because that was definitely not the case at all.
But now we have all the benefit of the hindsight, and we cannot go back to thirties, and tell that to masses going crazy from destitution, and poverty.
Nobody is even close to implementing a fascist system in America. This is the kind of thing people who don't actually know anything about Fascism say. Trump was not a Fascist or even close to it.
Stop falling into the tired rhetoric of the 20th century. New words are needed to name the problem.
The name for the system that you need to start using is "Totalitarian Liberalism". The leader is less important than the sum total bureaucratic control that slowly and "rationally" usurps freedom, flexibility, and leisure time from society for the benefit of the people who have the most influence over policy.
It is not a populist system that benefits the aristocracy and the working class by aligning corporate and state power in the national interest (fascism) nor a system that purports to benefit the working class by giving them the means of production (communism) - it is a system that works to benefit the existing rich by exploiting and undermining social divides, papering over them with rules and laws that marginalize the entire working class while setting it against itself.
* strident, often exclusionary nationalism - ("America First") check.
* fixation with national decline (real or perceived) and threats to the existence of the national community - ("MAGA") check.
* embrace of paramilitarism - ("stand back and stand by") check.
* led by an authoritarian leader who claims to embody the national will. - check.
* protecting or elevating the rights of the national community above the rights of those seen as alien - ("build a wall", "I don't care, do u?") check.
* removing obstacles to national unity and suppressing those seen as challenging it - (myth of "stolen" votes, "Deep State" narrative) check.
* expanding the size and influence of the national state - (To be fair, this has been the military industrial complex for quite a long time. Nothing unique here) normalized/not unique here
* often, also seeking to expand territory through armed conflict - (Also, already a characteristic of the U.S. forever war to protect its interests globally) normalized/not unique here
Merriam-Webster: Definition of fascism
1. often capitalized : a political philosophy, movement, or regime (such as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual and that stands for a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition
2: a tendency toward or actual exercise of strong autocratic or dictatorial control early instances of army fascism and brutality — J. W. Aldridge
Don't know where you're getting your definition from.
But that's exactly Trumps presidency? Or at least what he was attempting.
What you're missing is that fascism doesn't align ALL of the groups, just a fraction of each, and blames failures on the ones that aren't in that alignment
1. Revolutions of 1830: https://www.britannica.com/event/Revolutions-of-1830
2. The Spring of Nations: https://www.britannica.com/event/Revolutions-of-1848
USA now is basically France of early-mid-19th century.
My clumsy prognosis, USA will more or less repeat the route towards the French style liberal state, possibly, with few Napoleons along the way. And if it wouldn't, then it may well end up Weimarized.
Kings, and governments were replaced like worn gloves in 19th century, but the regime in general was always kind of stuck no matter what angry masses did.
Nobility, bourgeois, wealthy burghers, revolutionary hipsters kept changing, while poor, unwashed masses were kept being oppressed, and handing power to the next group of tricksters out of four above again, and again.
Changing the order of the operands does not change the resulting product.
Guillotines were only finally retired when the collective elite class was compelled to genuinely start improving the situation of downtrodden classes for the fear for their own lives, rather than some romantic altruism.
> And for those who want to nitpick what she said, let me just stop you right there—Hitler was right on literally nothing.
This is most likely fake news. Hitler was one of the first world leaders against smoking. So he was right on at least one thing.
* Rockets * Propaganda films
The US still uses his advancements today
People are seriously afraid of things like Critical Race Theory and Gender Ideology being taught in our schools. It's indoctrinating kids and parent's don't have a choice about it being taught to their kids.
She is literally quoting Hitler to show what the LEFT is doing in schools and how it's WRONG. This reaction is taken entirely out of context.
'The News' - which is mostly credible, is mostly not a form of state propaganda.
'The News' in the US, is a 'reasonable' form of credible information.
'Facebook' is generally not a good source of truthful information. It's a very open and free place to communicate, which is wonderful, but it's just not a good truthiness signal.
Enough with this idea that anything but 'everyone on a soapbox' is somehow fascist. Every community has sources that are more legitimately authoritative than others.
'The problem with the press' are their own internal narratives and biases, not any external influence.
The press are generally free to report on what they see, and they do that. It's their opinion that gets in the way.
And ironically, if there are bits they're afraid to report it's definitely not political, it's corporate, for fear of losing advertising revenue.
You can help people reach reasoned conclusions without telling them what conclusions to reach.
In theory, &/or to some degree.
It's also worth noting that "reasoned conclusions" are not necessarily what is True. Rather than desiring that humanity strives for Rationality, wouldn't it make more sense to aim higher? To instead desire that humanity pursues Truth? This way, we can improve all people: the members of our outgroups and our ingroups.
Perhaps it has been found but not distributed, or accepted. If we found it, would we even know? Would we be willing to acknowledge it, and practice it?
> But it seems to me that the best way to find the truth (with a small T) is by rationality; the alternative is irrationality which seems unlikely to be effective.
This seems like a bit of a false dichotomy to me.
Reality is rarely exactly as it seems.
> My hope is that, by collaborating using the tools of reason combined with our own personal Truths, humanity could do our best by everyone involved.
Perhaps, assuming (at least) we have no major flaws in our premises, or our systems (democracy theatre). I do share your hope though.
> I don’t know for certain that it will work, but it seems like the best way we’ve got.
It may be the best we've got now, but have we put any serious effort into finding alternatives? The horse and buggy was the best we had until someone invented the car; NASA was the best we had until Elon Musk started SpaceX, and so forth and so on.
As we sow, so shall we reap.
> by what alternate means do you propose we find and determine how to correct them
A reasonable thing to do would be to perhaps ask people what their problem is. Funny thing is though, it seems like this reasonable idea hasn't occurred to any "reasonable" people, as far as I know anyways.
A more ambitious approach would be to perform a comprehensive and careful examination of the other styles of thinking & belief systems that are out there. When you read threads like this one, do you get a strong sense that a large percentage of the people in here have actually done that? I don't, perhaps because I've actually done just that, at least do a large degree. I know that 75%+ of the people in here are running largely on heuristics, likely combined with some first hand experience (perhaps with a side order of confirmation bias), and likely plenty of consumption of "proper, trustworthy journalism", written by people who are also running on heuristics.
Very few people have a very good knowledge of how the mind works, and almost no one seems to have excellent knowledge, including things like edge case behaviors. Another thing you may notice in culture war threads like this one is the lack of curiosity/uncertainty/humility - but you may not notice it unless you are consciously looking for it. That's another thing about the mind: it's not so great at seeing things that aren't there, or knowing things that it doesn't know. I believe that this is a partial cause for the perceptions of omniscience that are always on full display in threads like this. Ironically, omniscience is a fairly reasonable perception for a neural network like the subconscious mind - after all, how do you reason about data that is not in your model?
Such things can be learned, but why would one go to the effort of learning something new if you already know everything worth knowing? That would be unreasonable.
As for the general utility of using reason as an approach to our problems - HN is surely an above average intelligence forum. The conversation that's going on in this thread (and the many others like it that occur on a regular basis), is this what "reason" looks like? And if people on HN can't even manage it, how reasonable is it to expect joe sixpack to pull it off?
And so I shall take my downvotes, and we will repeat this same process tomorrow, and the next day, and the next day, and eventually we will all reach our expiration date and our children can continue this process, and then pass it down to their offspring - The eternal circle of life. Well, eternal, provided another nation who doesn't suffer from this cultural affliction doesn't rise to power and ruin our party that is. That would be a real bummer.
PS: Sorry for being a dick. It's in my nature.
It sounds like we’re actually in violent agreement; I also think that we should be seeking each others’ perspectives. We’ve approached this conversation from different angles; the tack I’ve taken is to assume that is a given and consider ways to encourage it to happen productively. Of course people are not “just(!) unreasonable”; but even if the things they feel strongly about cannot themselves be reconciled by reason, it is still a useful tool to effect action based on those beliefs. I (and, it seems, you) seek tools to help reconcile differing beliefs and ensure that shared goals—whatever they may be—might have the most effective plan of action.
With that said, a few comments on particulars:
> When you read threads like this one, do you get a strong sense that a large percentage of the people in here have actually ... perform a comprehensive and careful examination of the other styles of thinking & belief systems that are out there?
Not really, no, but I also didn’t get the impression that you had done that, either, so there you go. I haven’t, either, very much; it’s an incredibly large field, so I rely heavily on encountering them by happenstance (though I do try to increase the chances of that occurring), which brings me to my next point:
> 75%+ of the people in here are running largely on heuristics
Running on heuristics is all we can do; the world is too large and complex for anything else. The best we can do is tune them carefully and be prepared to change them (using, of course, more heuristics; as you noted in your first paragraph this is heavily influenced by existing priors).
> Another thing you may notice in culture war threads like this one is the lack of curiosity/uncertainty/humility...
Any online thread is likely to be skewed towards a lack of visible curiosity; that is frequently satisfied by merely reading, whereas the most prolific way to produce content is by debate.
> if people on HN can't even manage it, how reasonable [! —ed.] is it to expect joe sixpack to pull it off?
Under present circumstances, perhaps not. But I’d still like to keep nudging things in that direction, and maybe someday we’ll get there.
Perhaps it's due to a difference in our thinking styles. You said:
>> But it seems to me that the best way to find the truth (with a small T) is by rationality; the alternative is irrationality which seems unlikely to be effective. My hope is that, by collaborating using the tools of reason combined with our own personal Truths, humanity could do our best by everyone involved. I don’t know for certain that it will work, but it seems like the best way we’ve got.
To "do our best by everyone involved", does that not involve society and the people that live within it, who act according to the virtual reality that is contained within their minds?
Now, maybe you weren't "making that point" (or in other words, thinking of it from that perspective), but this kind of gets into the distinction between Reality and Truth. (For more on that, see the 3rd video I linked here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25662949)
> When I hear “the tools to understand what is reasonable” and write of “finding the truth” and “collaborating using the tools of reason” I think of things like statistics courses and advancing the theory of systemantics. Reading your reply, it’s hard for me to tell exactly what you’ve heard, but it sounds like you may have instead understood this as my desiring to impose my beliefs of truth on others, which is not what I meant at all.
Oh no, I'm not saying that it is your (conscious) intent to "impose my beliefs of truth on others" (but I would speculate that this could manifest unintentionally, via simple democracy). My point is that you seem to hold the axiom that "things like statistics courses and advancing the theory of systemantics" are the only modalities of thinking that we have at our disposal.
As for things like Systemantics, I am a huge proponent of this sort of thinking. But you may (or may not) notice a near complete lack of this sort of thinking (that we live within a complex, semi-indeterminate system) in threads like this.
> It sounds like we’re actually in violent agreement; I also think that we should be seeking each others’ perspectives.
Yes, I would very much like for HN to adopt this culture. Alas, it seems more than people here can muster, which is one of my prime complaints. I have also suggested an experimental solution to resolve this inability in the comment I linked above. Alas, @dang seems uninterested in trying to improve things, despite his (I presume) perception that he wants HN forums to be a force for good in the world. The mind has massive capabilities for imagination, but it seems there are certain places that this imagination will not go: into itself, or one's tribe.
> but even if the things they feel strongly about cannot themselves be reconciled by reason, it is still a useful tool to effect action based on those beliefs.
True. My point is, consider the possibility that you are hitting a kind of hard limit of this approach. I believe that this is where humanity now finds itself - we are metaphorically building ever taller towers of technological capability based on our capacity for reason (science, engineering, etc), but we find ourselves unable to manage the societal consequences of the system we've built ourselves to live in. Perhaps it is indeed possible to solve this increasingly risky situation with reason - but what if it isn't? What if your intuition (which is what it is) is wrong? Disproving hypotheses is a fundamental part of the scientific process, and yet look how eager we are to skip over that part when dealing with indeterminate domains.
> Not really, no, but I also didn’t get the impression that you had done that, either
And then there is: What is True.
> so there you go.
You and me both, and the society we live in. And where are we going? I don't know, but the neighbourhood outside the window I'm looking out of is starting to get a little scary, by my standards anyways. Maybe I just have to work on my thrill seeking skills. Although, I don't get the sense from others in this thread that they're seeking thrills, so do they see something different outside their windows? Or is something else going on?
> it’s an incredibly large field, so I rely heavily on encountering them by happenstance
As do most people, and I can appreciate why: it is indeed a very large field, and it seems to take years just to get even a rough lay of the landscape. But what I can't appreciate is that "reasonable, informed" people (like my brethren here on HN, or so they tell me) seem to have no curiosity when such ideas arise. What they do have though, is downvotes. But to be clear: I don't appreciate it, but I do understand it. I propose that once one has traversed the right parts of these lands, you can begin to notice the very same, simple patterns always and everywhere (hence my suggestion in my other comment).
> Running on heuristics is all we can do; the world is too large and complex for anything else. The best we can do is tune them carefully and be prepared to change them (using, of course, more heuristics; as you noted in your first paragraph this is heavily influenced by existing priors).
These beliefs are derived from a heuristic (resting upon axioms and premises). Why not apply the very tool you are recommending: (first principles based) reasoning? Once again, is this not at least suggestive of a fundamantal shortcoming in that approach? On one hand, you surely know (in one state of mind [1] that is) that your knowledge is limited, and yet you speak as if it isn't (another one of the common patterns I refer to above).
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-dependent_memory
> Any online thread is likely to be skewed towards a lack of visible curiosity
If this was /r/politics, I wouldn't complain. But this lack of curiosity combined with the abundance of self-congratulatory claims of intelligence in these threads is a bit off-putting to me - and I am a great lover of irony!
> whereas the most prolific way to produce content is by debate.
I dream of a day that we can manage a debate here on HN, on culture war topics, with the same mental discipline we demonstrate when debating determinate domains, like programming, hardware, etc. Heck, I'd even be happy if someone could agree that the noticeable degradation in quality of discourse on topics like this, combined with the gravity of the topics (ie: climate change), might be substantial enough to at least consider trying to do something about.
> But I’d still like to keep nudging things in that direction, and maybe someday we’ll get there.
That is what I have been trying to do for quite some time now: nudge people into a higher state of consciousness - to get them to at least realize what is going on in threads like this. But it seems to be an unpopular idea.
I would like to say though: despite the harshness of my tone and words, this has been the best conversation I've had on HN in a very long time, so thank you for that.
Ideally, yes, everyone could understand every concept from the ground up and be able to engage in reasonable discourse about anything.
At this point, the complexity of the world precludes the majority of people from doing that, which is why we have specialization.
Practically speaking, people rely on authoritative sources to gain information about something so they can form opinions and make decisions. Those authorities do define what's reasonable based on different attributes, and in doing so exert control, but that doesn't make what they're doing fascist. It's done because the amount of complexity present in the world requires it.
There is just the same as “control them” and in practice is how fascism works. The DDR didn’t rely primarily on stasi breaking kneecaps to enforce order.
Too dumb, no. But definitely too gullible - and the is made worse by the profit that is to be made manipulating such people.
I'm not saying that reading a news article is equivalent to PTSD but it's a spectrum and we all sort of need to accept that different people have different abilities and tolerances when it comes to being exposed to extremism and propaganda - heck we'd all probably pride ourselves here as being able to see through the BS of most advertising but we also need to acknowledge that advertising is effective on a lot of folks.
1. As a society in general, I hope you'll allow.
No it's not. This is declaring a problem -- which I think is a very real problem -- but not suggesting a solution. I don't believe anyone is suggesting fascism is the solution to this problem -- except for you.
But now that you've provided this unreasonable response, it's now much more difficult to discuss it. You've unintentionally provided an example of the very thing we're talking about.
In a conversation that is supposedly about how people are being mislead by media we're 2 seconds away of Godwin's law again. It's exhausting.
An idiot who shares something untrue that he ought to have known was false is materially different from someone who fabricates something and ultimately directly and by proxy misinforms 10 million people.
The choice isn't between tyranny or absolute freedom. It's about our actions shaping the bones of society. The current framework isn't mere ground truth we must accept we can reshape it if we desire and perhaps we should.
You can’t just squeeze the screw tighter on this.
The idea of “I know better than you, therefore I control what you see and say or else” is the absolute height of arrogance.
First of all, plenty of the people currently spreading lies on the internet are doing so under their own names and have built some celebrity and a career out of it, so I don't know why you think that anonymity contributes to the problem in any real way.
But more importantly, how exactly do you propose to "punish people" who spread lies? With what form of punishment? Is this a formal system of punishment, or some informal system?
If formal: Under what jurisdiction? How does your proposed system determine the truth, and if it can determine the truth how does it determine which lies are malicious enough to be deserving of punishment?
If informal: How does it differ from what we have today, in the form of people arguing with each other and occasionally trying to get each other banned from social media or otherwise made unpublishable or unemployable?
Social media has given everyone a soap box, a megaphone and a repeater and the ability to piggyback on other people's shouting directly into people's ears and eyes. Do you think this is a good thing? No one is vetting anyone seriously, no one is being consistently judged on their honesty, accuracy, track record or motives.
It's not entirely about being dumb, more and more it's turning out to be about how much time people are able to commit to understanding what they're reading. This is why people are known as experts in the first place. Do you really think everyone is capable enough to handle the highly nuanced planning and decision making necessary for governing millions of people on the balance of thousands of existing laws and regulations?
Sometimes you can't boil information down into something that everyone can understand in a short enough amount of time which would be what is necessary for each person to play a role in democracy. Just like we pay someone to fix our plumbing we should be paying our politicians to figure this stuff out for us.
We don't have the time or attention span. It's impossible.
This leads to people being blindsided by things like Trump or Brexit. Its important to register that we tend towards a slanted world view.
I have imperfectly adopted a principle in discourse: that if I have to resort to patronizing explanations to understand, I'm not working hard enough to understand.
> I hear this all the time now. But let's be clear -- this is the talk of fascism.
Nonetheless it seems objectively true to me. This may just be my biased perspective being substantially smarter than average, but I'm continually surprised by how gullible, uneducated, and uninformed the average person is. In the USA especially - stop skimping on your education system there!
I'm also surprised pleasantly by what humans in the aggregate accomplish, so it's not all doom and gloom.
The same way that there are large pockets of disease outbreak in rich areas of the country because moms with accounting degrees think they're smart enough to be immunologists because they have an internet connection.
We're literally watching democracy die in real time and its directly due to social media and internet disinformation, on top of the already existing radio/tv disinformation.
"most people are not equipped to understand what is reasonable" ... and therefore let's help them to understand.
It is the responsibility of, well, everyone, but especially those in power—journalists, politicians, pundits—to act in some semblance of good faith. To try to inform their audience. To not say things they know to be false.
The people storming the capital right now have been told by (1) the president of the united states, (2) the news channels they watch, and very possibly (3) their religious leaders, that Donald Trump would have won the election if not for a conspiracy to rig voting machines and throw away millions of ballots. So of course, in that case, the right thing to do is storm the capital and protect democracy!
The basic problem is that too many public figures have decided to reject their most basic responsibility to society. And I just don't know what to do about that.
Your fellow citizens deserve more credit. They have brains. They really can and almost always do form adequate understanding of reasonable takes on new information.
But when their eyeballs are subjected to consumerist bidding wars and ranking algorithms to inflame, to stoke fear and insecurity, to render feelings of inadequacy, and they are so thoroughly manipulated, then you get information monoculture.
We need information diversity and information vitamins. Instead we’re allowing ourselves to be spoonfed information junk food.
Meanwhile, our fellow citizens deserve no credit at all, and neither do we. No one has any real idea what's going on, we just either follow the herd or totally gamble. Even if someone was actually able to be correct about complex systems, it would be unverifiable.
With every new communication medium comes new responsibility.
When radio was first introduced, it was rife with misinformation and false advertising. One Dr. Brinkly made a fortune selling fake goat testicle transplants (for treating ED) over the radio, only to relocate it to the Mexican border when he was shut down. He made so much money that he ran for Governor and received 30% of the vote.
We're kind of in the same place right now, but with a much broader medium. How we move forward is anyone's guess.
America has been good at free speech, and we should never give that up. But for free speech to result in advancement of society, rather than goons storming the Capitol, a good education is an absolute requirement, and the government has not given all Americans the opportunity to get a good education. There will be pressure to censor speech because people aren't equipped to process it -- we should resist that and focus on education instead. This is where we should be spending our money; this is what the government exists to do. Give everyone an equal standing to understand these sources of information. We're not doing that, and the results are bad.
It should always be one of the top priorities for any populace.
It's enough to notice that there's near zero economic incentives for providing actual education. The market settled on an equilibrium of baseline operational knowledge + filtering through standardized testing, and then advanced operational knowledge acquired through voluntary higher education and on the job. And it continued to optimize accordingly. The only thing that makes people try to teach beyond this minimum is humanistic values, belief in importance of education. Against it works the entire economy, forcing individual teachers and schools alike to find savings, "cut out fat", make lean.
Free market is enough to explain the disaster education is becoming worldwide (because it's not just an US phenomenon; we start to see the same problems over here in Europe).
Where in the world is there a free market in education?
Teachers are overworked and underpaid, they can't afford to go far beyond what curriculum says they should. Parents demand schools prepare kids well for their adult life - which for almost all families means primarily preparing for a decent job. Thus the labor market is indirectly but strongly influencing the curriculum. Labor market demands a way to sort people, so standardized testing and pressure to choose your career at even earlier ages appears. On the other side, governments are embedded in the market reality, they need to manage their budgets and seek savings, so their prioritize, tightening the school system to provide what the market demands.
I could go on and draw some other feedback loops. But the point is that you can't disentangle schooling - or anything government - from the economic reality, and that this economic reality is sufficient in explaining the shape of education system. No conspiracy, or ill will by any rich and powerful agents needed.
If there's no slack in the system then how do you propose to expand the scope of function provided by a system running at its limitations?
> I could go on and draw some other feedback loops. But the point is that you can't disentangle schooling - or anything government - from the economic reality, and that this economic reality is sufficient in explaining the shape of education system. No conspiracy, or ill will by any rich and powerful agents needed.
I agree with this, which is why I questioned you. A free market in education would do a lot to empower educators to offer real, functioning education because they'd be able to charge what they needed and compensate their teachers appropriately.
I don't. I do think that adding slack into the system is an important step in fixing educaction. But my comment was trying to point towards the question of how come there's no slack in the system? What ate it? Answer: market pressures. Not some elites thinking a dumber populace is easier to control and wishing a weaker educational system into existence.
> A free market in education would do a lot to empower educators to offer real, functioning education because they'd be able to charge what they needed and compensate their teachers appropriately.
I'm not disagreeing completely, but I have many concerns about this view. Free market is good at optimizing for behaviors that yield immediate, short-term profit. Good education is very hard to price, with profits following the actions by many decades. I fully expect that making education governed by the market directly would make it settle on even stranger proxies in lieu of delivering proper education. On top of that, free market for commodity labor doesn't equal happy labor, but rather unhappy labor living on minimum wage.
The lack of market pressure allowed the quantity of unnecessary/unwanted services to expand as the quality decreased (because people are still forced to pay for a failing educational system, bad teachers are shielded from accountability, and anyone who wants to pay for private education must pay twice).
> Answer: market pressures.
If you don't respond to the market telling you that you cost too much and provide too little, you shouldn't be surprised when you're unable to produce what you consume on the market and become dependent on additional assistance.
> Not some elites thinking a dumber populace is easier to control and wishing a weaker educational system into existence.
Can you provide some source substantiating your denial of this historical assertion?
> Free market is good at optimizing for behaviors that yield immediate, short-term profit. Good education is very hard to price, with profits following the actions by many decades.
Free market is also good at optimizing for means of production that deliver commodities and goods over the long term. The limitation is that the owner of the capital must have a long term vision he wishes to accomplish with his capital. Coercive systems decouple the vision-seer from the capital-owner by permitting the vision-seer to realize his vision by expropriating the necessary resources from individuals who do not share that vision. This replaces the impediment of needing a coincidence of capital and vision with the perverse incentives and moral hazards associated with expropriation.
> I fully expect that making education governed by the market directly would make it settle on even stranger proxies in lieu of delivering proper education.
Only as far as the people paying for the education approved those proxy results.
> free market for commodity labor doesn't equal happy labor, but rather unhappy labor living on minimum wage.
a free market wouldn't have a minimum wage by definition.
This ignores the point? At a lower than minimum wage, you still don't have happy labour
Yeah, because then the government is telling them they are illegally unskilled to work a job.
And it's still just market pressures. Markets are just bad for people
So you (hypothetically, as a developer) make six figures? Superb.
How valuable is that when your country goes down in flames because it's easy to make money out of people who believe Bill Gates is seeding Covid via 5G towers?
That's what I keep telling people around me. They're still bewildered that I don't go out of my way to "optimize" my way out of taxes, or that I'm in favor for raising the taxes for my income bracket. And it doesn't even take a civil war - as the income inequality progresses, how long will it take before your close family will start asking you (the hypothetical rich developer) for help? Will you turn them away, to enjoy your six figures in peace?
and how much help will you be able to offer, given your prior lack of optimization for this very scenario?
> Will you turn them away, to enjoy your six figures in peace?
"I gave already, it was taken out of my income before I had a chance to spend it, go away now"
Isis may have taken over parts of Iraq and Syria, but that did not mean that the oil stopped flowing
Open exchange of ideas is not new. It's just faster and cheaper now.
Do you have a source for this comment? I'm pretty sure he heard about the allegations of fraud from actual purported witnesses who filed sworn affidavits. Those blogs that you're saying he gets the information from have hyperlinks to the documents filed by his legal team. I'm thinking the blogs got it from him, not the other way around.
Which are not intelligence agencies nor election officials. Anyone can sign an affidavit, it's not some magical paper.
If intelligence services or elections officials had found something, they would've announced it officially, instead they have announced the opposite. [0] [1]
> I'm thinking the blogs got it from him, not the other way around.
Trump is regularly retweeting information that has no other source or basis than theories created in the deep bowels of the internet. [2] (and hundreds more)
[0] https://www.cisa.gov/news/2020/11/12/joint-statement-electio...
[1] https://www.cisa.gov/news/2020/11/12/joint-statement-electio...
[2] https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-la-ballots-idUS...
They are poll workers who claim (under penalty of perjury) to have witnessed illegal or election-tampering conduct.
> Trump is regularly retweeting information that has no other source or basis than theories created in the deep bowels of the internet.
Its presumptuous for you to pretend to know the sources available to POTUS.
>> There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised.
This from the guy who was fired because he continued to claim there was no evidence when people were presenting evidence of election tampering and begging the government to investigate before the evidence trail grew cold.
He has tweeted today his displeasure at Mike Pence if he doesn't reject the Electoral College votes.
And he has tweeted moments ago, yet again, that he won in a landslide and that he and his supporters have had the election win viciously stripped away from them.
Whether it's delusional or some malicious intent to incite violence, I think doesn't even matter. He should be impeached, removed from office, and banned from ever holding office again. The priority must be, counting the state certified Electoral College votes, and certifying the result. Following that, Congress could impeach and remove Trump from office in half a day, if they want. Their normal speed is glacial, but that's institutional momentum. They can move very quickly, if they want to, they just usually don't want to.
Being reasonable is time consuming, expensive, requires constant education and a mind open to accepting that being wrong is ok. It’s elitist almost by definition. I don’t see how you got authoritarian in the equation, though.
The response to this should be to ensure everyone does have the education and free time to be able to deal with this type of misinformation, but that runs contrary to the goals of those who benefit from the status quo.
I think it's easy to blame the symptoms of social media for the issues we have. But the internet, video quality bandwidth, smartphones, and social media together have combined to dramatically change who publishes and who finds it over the last 10-15 years.
In my mind, it is going to take us time to adapt, maybe a couple generations. Things will be difficult during that time but I hope we don't make regressive changes in our values based on what is fundamentally (in my opinion) an issue adapting our approach to free speech to the rapid advancement of publishing technology.
EDIT: "most people are not equipped to understand what is reasonable" -> This is the kind of dramatic conclusion I don't think we should be drawing.
Those regimes that filtered information very narrowly constrained ideas to align with the status quo. That was sometimes good, but often held back people with minority views from finding and organizing with each other. Progressive social movements and positive new possibilities have come out of this, in addition to reactionary ones.
What we do have to do is figure out how to have a shared view of the world that is less authoritarian than in the past. People now try to get the private platforms to enforce particular viewpoints through deplatforming and such. I am sympathetic to this as a practical matter, but don't think it is a viable long-term solution, as it will just lead us back to where we were, except with different people calling the shots.
Easy bad ideas make for catchy phrases. The kinds of thoughts that are spreading across the US today would have been stopped by editorial accountability in an earlier era. I'm not sure education is the way to reduce the impact of easy bad ideas, because group members take on the catch phrases without thinking them through.
People forget, statistically half the population has an IQ below 100. And importantly, to be absolutely clear, that does not mean those people should not have a voice, or that they are “stupid”, far from it. It does however mean that certain issues are overwhelming complex to assume every American can make competent decisions on. Many of these rioters I’m sure don’t grasp how the very system they are protesting works on a fundamental level. If they believe the earth is flat, how can we expect them to understand the electoral college process, or the role of state versus federal government in our election process.
Certainly everyone’s voices need to be heard. When people and their families are struggling, many of them doing the jobs that make this country function, they are ignored. So when a savior seems to come before them, we need to be very vigilant.
We’ve seen these things happen before in history with other demagogues.
We expect in this country that all voices should be heard in order to elect people who’s job it is to lead. That’s the definition of a republic. That leadership should have killed the conspiracies and falsehoods from the start, protecting those of the democracy who are vulnerable, many of them suffering from the consequences of this pandemic.
Instead they sat on their hands. We need to hold our leaders responsible. We need to ask, en masse, for those leaders to hold each other accountable.
We also need to take ownership as a people. Us. We consume this media. We have created these social media companies, and allowed them to spread this stuff. Ultimately each and every one of us is responsible.
Let’s make sure going forward we ask more for those we ask to lead in our stead. Our vote isn’t the only thing we have to do that. We also have our voice and our 1st amendment. Let’s use it to the fullest.
Sophisticated people are just as prone to bias and cognitive error as unsophisticated people. The danger with limiting the spread of information is that the task of deciding what to censor is vulnerable to corruption by the interests of the censor.
Economic values operate to reward them, and to punish - or at least inconvenience - those with less toxic values. So naturally the Dark Triad types have a very strong incentive to exploit the below-average. And the more below average and cognitively unsophisticated they are, the easier it is to exploit them.
This isn't even about Left vs Right. It's about how you design a political and economic system that can handle these challenges without imploding.
- from Thomas Paine Common Sense, to getting all the farmers with pitchfolks to revolt over whiskey tax to the newspaper boy shouting on the corner.
It's really the same coin.
I think you're confusing cause and effect. The problem is that people don't trust the same "professionals" to "filter" their news. People trusted Cronkite. There wasn't a huge market for "here's the news Cronkite won't tell you." Even when the country got super divided during Vietnam.
Now, I don't know why people have lost faith in professionals. I have my theory, which is that there has been a really significant ideological divergence between the professional class and ordinary people.
Let me give you an example. I don't want to litigate the specific example, but I'm just using it to illustrate. I read a lot of Matt Yglesias. He's very smart. But as far as I can tell, he doesn't believe in culture. Like, he doesn't believe it exists. He doesn't understand why people are attached to theirs. So when he talks about immigration, he draws these dichotomies "well there is the economic aspect of the immigration debate, then the xenophobia aspect."
I come from a country where a bunch of brown Muslims declared independence from other brown Muslims over the particular Indo-Aryan language they spoke. Bangladeshis would flip out if, for example, a quarter of the country was suddenly Pakistani. Not because they dislike Pakistanis. (I.e. Xenophobia.) But they are very attached to their own culture and don't want anyone to come and change it. One of the most powerful forces in the world is peoples' attachment to soil, language, religion, and shared food, history, art, customs, etc. Yglesias boils all of that down to "xenophobia."
Now, I'm quite the opposite. I get sad I'm going to die 10,000 miles away from where my ancestors are buried. I'm a bit jealous that my wife's family all lives within 2 hours of where they came over to Oregon on the wagon trains 170 years ago, while mine is scattered around the world in a diaspora. So when I listen to Yglesias, I cringe at some of his takes. I trust him because I've read a lot of his work, but I don't think he understands me or people like me. I can just imagine someone who don't want to put in the effort tuning him out.
The professional class is increasingly full of people like Matt Yglesias. Not just "liberal" in terms of supporting this healthcare policy or that one. Or in thinking the Vietnam was was a bad idea. But "liberal" in terms of not sharing a lot of basic premises with ordinary people, like “is it legitimate to be concerned about culture changing in your community.” It’s very hard for people who don’t share those views on basic things like that to talk to each other productively. I think that's a huge part of eroding trust in professionals.
But in your profile here on HN, you describe yourself as:
> I'm an appellate lawyer. In a past life, I was an engineer at a cognitive radio startup.
I'm puzzled at why you see the distinction as having anything to do with "the professional class".
I think the word you could have used to good effect here is "cosmopolitan". Its meaning is a subtle and probably used a little differently by different people, but I take it to describe a person somewhat like myself who (unlike you) doesn't have much of an attachment to "soil, language, religion, and shared food, history, art, customs", but instead sees all of the culture of humanity as their birthright, and who feels free to pick and choose (subject to certain political and economic constraints). I find it personally important to me to be able to combine things I love from different cultures from all over the world, and I confess that I regard those with a strong attachment to whatever they perceive as "their culture" as somehow a little (or a lot!) backwards. I also confess to a genuine irritation with anyone who expresses ideas that suggest that certain culture is "owned" by specific groups of people.
Clearly, we have quite different views of the world and our place in it. But I'm still confused why you put Yglesias and his cosmopolitan views in "the professional class" when it seems (from your being here on HN as well as your profile) that you are also a member of this class. Surely Yglesias is just a cosmopolitan sort of person, and you are not?
If so, it's really about "the professional class" vs "ordinary people", it's about people (like me) who view cosmopolitanism as central to the great hope for a peaceful and prosperous future for humanity, and people (perhaps such as yourself) who feel that belonging to a particular culture (and place?) is central their identity and presumably their conceptions of the future.
Let me make clear that I’m not making value judgments here. Obviously I have my views, but I’m just trying to describe what I’m experiencing.
Putting that aside, I agree “cosmopolitan” describes aspects of this as well. But economic trends have caused the professional class to become much more cosmopolitan than it used to be. In the law, for example, it used to be most companies used local or regional firms. Today, stuff is increasingly consolidated in NY/DC/SF. The same is true of the news media, etc. As a result, these industries are increasingly filled with people who were okay moving halfway across the country to pursue opportunities. And the process of moving itself reduces some of those traditional attachments to place.
This is happening internationally. Surveys show that the vast majority of people in Asia wouldn’t immigrate to another country even if they had the chance. So places like Silicon Valley are increasingly filled with people who are a little different than the normal person in the country they left behind.
As for me, I came to DC at age 5 with my parents so it’s not like I had much of a choice. And it’s hard to be “from” DC since everyone here is so transient. Even then, I moved back when my wife and I had kids and we live 10 minutes from my parents.
> Surely Yglesias is just a cosmopolitan sort of person, and you are not?
Yes, I think that’s true. But as explained above, there are a lot more cosmopolitans in my profession than the average place. The median American lives less than 18 miles from their mom. The median American lawyer or journalist certainly doesn’t. I remember scrambling to get a passport when my boss decided we were going to Germany with two days notice. My passport had been expired for years.
> Who feel that belonging to a particular culture (and place?) is central their identity and presumably their conceptions of the future.
And just happiness. I don’t mind if my kids go out somewhere else for college, but I want them to come back to Maryland and raise kids. I travel for work, and my wife and I like to go to random Midwestern cities once a year for vacation, and I really love Japan, but traveling for the sake of it doesn’t do much for me.
Cosmopolitanism is one aspect of how the professional class is different. Religion is another. There are more religious people than you’d think in the professional class, but everyone keeps it pretty DL and churchgoing isn’t a typical weekly activity. Education is obviously another, and that’s got a lot of knock-on effects. I’ve been trying to explain the new meaning of the term “racism” to my dad and he’s pretty perplexed. He never went to college in the US, and prides himself on “not being a hyphenated American.”
For the most part, people can just sort into the kind of life they want. But when the media becomes highly nationalized, it becomes a challenge. I’m politically a pretty liberal person (I was a Democrat most of my adult life) and it’s just hard for me to read mainstream news these days. I stick to Bloomberg which tends to be pretty neutral. I have to admit, I read foxnews.com or WSJ when 10 years ago I would’ve read the NYT. Not because I think “these people are bad” or anything like that, I just don’t want to fight with the impedance mismatch to see what happened in the GA election.
Notably, the local news doesn’t create this tension. The Capital Gazette here in Annapolis doesn’t make me want to flip to Fox.
Maybe I’m understating the actual xenophobia towards Pakistanis in Bangladesh. I’m (inadvertently) rather ignorant some of these things because my knowledge is second hand through family. My parents were strongly pro-independence, and my uncle was in the army.
If you go looking for different opinions you can find them, but most people don’t do that. They let an algorithm generate their opinions for them by excluding anything that might challenge their views from their feed.
Yes. And thirty or forty or fifty years ago (remember the Internet itself is more than 20 years old), we had even less diverse access.
However, that does not mean the information we got back then was more reliable than the information we get now. It just means it was harder back then for we the people to spot when we were being misinformed, lied to, or just plain not told about things we should have been told about.
We are headed for dark times unless people like you are removed from positions of power.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilmington_insurrection_of_189...
Some people don't take responsibility for offending others, they'd rather place the blame on the person who heard them. You think that's rather a minor problem, ok. Let's skip past the question of offensive speech for now...
Let's talk about preserving a democracy. What happens when people no longer feel any responsibility for citizens having trust in that democracy? They use their speech to weaken it (this is a much broader group than just Trump) and now, with Trump, even to incite violence if they think it will benefit themselves. Fault and responsibility seems to clearly lie with them and their choices, they shouldn't be able to dodge that responsibility by redirecting to abstract discussion of the pros and cons of restrictions on speech.
You are dodging the direct "how did we get here?" answer of "people are making blatant shortsighted power plays" by talking about people's "iddly-widdly-fweelings." That's ridiculous.
Given that lies about the election, protected by free speech, have stoked these riots maybe you should consider whether it's really a problem of not enough free speech.
Didn't we already go through this during McCarthyist red scares?
We’ve seen headlines on this site showing how we have access to more kinds of information than ever.
Society HAD been pressured to toe the line even harder back in the day. Internet has no TV censors, though the most visible properties do.
It’s ridiculous to suggest we’ve become more protective given book burnings, anti-Dungeons and Dragons, anti-comic book, Bible thumping paranoia that used to exist.
What we’re seeing is American incompetence to comprehend more than just their speech is wrong. Their entire agency is wrong.
When political forces beat us over the head with economic correctness, which has lead to decades of growing inequality, and the Fed relied on a policy of worker insecurity to keep people in their jobs, this has little to do with Main Street tolerance for alternative ideas (they’re everywhere) and everything to do with tried and true human nature to maintain economic power in the hands of a minority.
Humans evolved quite a bit before language. What is language anyway except muscle agency emitting random sound forms? Then of course we normalize on them, effectively constraining our syntax systems organically. Even linguists agree.
This has little to do with suppression of speech and everything to do with top down control of productive agency altogether.
The undermining of agency for the masses, sequestered in the hands of a minority has nothing to do with speech. We say a lot of diverse shit. But spend our time securing the wealth of oligarchs.
This is completely upside down.
This is not the 'erosion of free speech' - it's actually the 'explosion' of it.
Free from any kind of filters of credibility, people can now promote whatever fictions they want to promote.
When fictions are emboldened by those in positions of legitimate authority, aka The President, the truth falls by the side.
The ratio of 'noise to truth' has blown up, and it's mostly a result of our ability to communicate in a more direct manner.
The voices of mostly uninformed individuals, free to express themselves on the soap box, are now much louder. That's not a slight: we're all busy and have different roles in life. We can't be experts in everything, ergo, most of us are not legitimate sources of truth on that much. We allocate those responsibilities to people within whom we entrust a certain degree of trust. Like the free press as one example, Science as another.
Far from 'restrictions' on speech, the internet itself, Facebook, Twitter - whatever their policies provide for 100x more communication than existed before.
We used to get information from news, politicians, bureaucrats, teachers - and some gossip from the neighbours. Now the 'gossip, youtube and TikTok information' factor is 10x greater - and that's mostly a function of free expression.
Random people on Facebook will 'like' and 'propagate' whatever 'science' they want to believe is true - which is obviously not going to result in rigorously verified information, rather the opposite.
'Good or Bad?' - that's a more complicated issue - but what we are seeing now is 'much more expression' not 'limited expression'.
I challenge anyone here to demonstrate, over the last 25 years, how there could possibly be fewer channels and sources of public information and expression.
Edit: I should add that obviously there are issues with freedom of expression, on campus, and the in the commons with certain forms of shaming for certain opinions, but that's an entirely different issue from 'public information' and 'how people are misinformed' about things like election results. The public commons is several orders of magnitude bigger than it ever was. It's not even comparable to 25 years ago, this is a completely different era we live in.
To be flippant, there are more village idiots than ever before and they are all talking to each other on the internet.
The solution to this, in my opinion, is a massive investment in public education and a shift of American politics to the left. America doesn’t have a left and a right, it has a far right and a right. In the UK American democrats would be very comfortable in the UK Conservative party.
To wit a top comment is talking about 'suppressed speech' when we have 100x more avenues to speak and express ourselves, and more people have voices than ever before, by several orders of magnitude ... is evidence of that is abundant.
YouTube, Twitter, TikTok, Blogs, the fact we can now access information from around the world, the readiness 24/7 nature of information, any book, from anywhere, people from around the world interacting on Facebook.
Only 25 years ago it was literally unthinkable - I was alive then and nobody was predicting this. If you wanted to learn about 'Russia' you went to the 'Library'. Now - you can read Russian News, videos, TikToks, Instas, communicate with Russians, heck - you can even work with them.
HackerNews itself is an amazing opportunity for information clearing and individual expression that did not exist in any form 25 years ago! The very comment you are writing is 'revolutionary' in the broader picture of time. There was nowhere to do this before. Nobody could interact with people from around the world about 'daily tech news'.
It's not even a debate how much more expression there is today.
To your point about 'education' - obviously that would be wonderful, but that's not going to be good enough.
Just look at the issue here: we have incredibly more power as individuals to express ourselves publicly - and a 'very educated' HN board can't seem to grasp that.
We're just starting to grasp the power and influence of Social Media - and now that Trump has shown 'what can be done', I'm afraid it will be an 'arms race' of misinformation for a while.
Our system depends on integrity: that your doctors is certified, professional, moral. Same for your teacher. The Judge. And the same applies to information. We 'fact check' books, reports. We certainly expect that in the Scientific domain. So we must have that for public information as well. Which is not to say we won't have other expressive channels, but randoms on 'TikTok' just can't be a source of news, other than the experience they might be able to grab on their phones (which FYI can be enlightening).
So yes, education, but we need credibility in our institutions as well.
1. In the past, the wrong speech would result in both government, and private sector censure. You're selectively omitting the civil rights struggle, the communist witch hunts, the german witch hunts that preceeded them, the history of internment and concentration camps in this country, the suffrage struggle...
We didn't somehow magically arrive at the world of 2020, without a lot of people being punished for their speech.
2. Our information diet was never as diverse as it is now. Media, prior to the age of the internet, was much more of a monoculture of ideas than it is now. New, radicalizing information arose in university halls and books and rallies, not on the television.
3. People are no more, and no less willing to admit that they were wrong today, as they were in the age of, say, segregation-forever Jim Crow south.
This coup is not the result of offensive speech being restricted, or hurt feelings. It's the direct result of a few people with media and political influence actively directing their followers to undermine our democracy.
This could have happened in any decade - but it happened today because of the particular personalities involved. You elect a president that is very vocal about his lack of respect for the law, the election process, the presidency, or democratic institutions, and this is what you get. The only reason it is happening in 2020, and not 1920, 1960, or 2020 was because the personalities on the ballot in those years had respect for those things - or at least, were adults who managed to check their worst impulses.
When he said that he won't accept the results of any election that he didn't win (back in 2016), do you still think he was confused, or kidding, or misunderstood? He was just being honest. You can't let people who profess such ideas within reaching distance of political power, because they will happily burn the world down around them to retain it.
3. The anonymity of online identity.
People behave very differently when they perceive they are anonymous.
Perhaps this is a version of mob psychology/dynamics where the anonymity of the collective causes people to act in ways that they normally wouldn't.
I don't know about that. I see people on FB who are accurately identified by their real name who have no problem whatsoever expressing "F*ck your feelings" to people who are ostensibly their friends. Lack of anonymity doesn't seem to have helped.
In middle school I had a week long course on how to identify the trustworthiness of online sources that talked over topics like what does the site gain by pushing one narrative over another, are they selling anything that might make them artificially favor a view point over another, checking multiple sources but identifying common trends in arguments or even common site themes that might suggest the sites are ran by the same entity.
In highschool in another district all I got on the topic was "wikipedia bad because it can be edited by anyone".
people have different thoughts! some people want an ethnostate for white people and some people dont! we just disagree. too bad that censorship caused all this to happen!
Less diversity as in-for example-a small village means you have to find compromises with your neighbors.
The solution, in my opinion, is a massive investment in public education (schools for the next generation and reskilling and educating for adults paid like a job via a stipend) and a shifting of American politics to the left so you actually have a left and a right like most democratic countries.right now you have a far right and right wing party.
Or, given the conflict starting from the first Gulf War and continuing up until the second, maybe 30 years ago.
Or, given the US deep involvement in the immediately preceding Iran-Iraq war, maybe closer to 40 years ago.
Or...
20 years ago was the disputed 2000 election, 9/11, Department of Homeland Security, Gitmo, invasion of Afghanistan, lies about WMD, invasion of Iraq, etc. So no, I wouldn't say things were better then.
Reminds me of the rapid increase in housing prices now and concerns about a bubble. I mean, 8-9 years ago it was non-stop articles about how nobody would be fooled again by a housing bubble.
In other words: this magically aligns with everything you already believed.
I’m someone’s complete lack of surprise.
This is utter madness and it has to stop. We have to start to see each other and people and not adversaries. You might like something I wrote last night about how the American mind has been fractured:
https://battlepenguin.com/philosophy/the-fracturing-of-the-h...
What will it take for tech people to acknowledge that, combined with the fake-drama-soaked media, they've built something socially corrosive?
I'll argue, strongly everything regarding Social Media/ misinformation / content security is an epiphenomena of : the shape, rate and self forming nature of modern human communication networks.
The pace of interaction and information has simply overwhelmed the ability of human one on one interaction.
Most of our actions are with a mobile phone near us, meaning that the social sphere is directly with us and only a twitter/FB/Reddit/HN glance away.
Doesn't help that the sites need to be competitively addictive to be financially viable.
So no matter how much you interact on a 1 on 1 basis, a few seconds after they return to their phone they are part of the new outrage cycle.
Do note that the whole thing above is doable with cable television news as well.
So you can, for a little bit, look at the network structure and pace, while looking at humans as connected processing hubs that are getting compromised.
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Heres an actual paper showing that Misinformation based communication travels differently than "Fact" based information https://www.pnas.org/content/113/3/554.full.
If people both A) Enjoy to be part of communities of like minded people B) Cannot stay objective and keep perspective once immersed in one
then the current situation (and worse) seem to be inevitable. Regardless of actions taken against (or complete elimination of) the big commercial players.
You can even go back to the cable news era and see the same issues. It seems quaint but the Fox News effect and the Fox News bubbles were things that were already driving those forces.
The evidence suggests to me that our ideals on free speech do not take into account human wetware bandwidth when it’s being influenced by modern telecommunications and Internet enabled conversations.
Yes, I've called dang out on his inaction numerous times. HN is utterly filled with alt-right scum.
If you or anyone want to know how we think about that problem, there are a lot of past explanations at these links:
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so...
https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...
Does anything matter if this doesn't? The chat is fairly civil.
It's a bit more important than the usual "political" posts that get flagged.
We prefer to have constructive discussions. Most of the comments here are not constructive nor charitable.
Were the people rushing into the Capitol convinced that this salvo would actually effectively cancel out the results of the election?
Was this just a sort of show of strength? To what end?
I only know one diehard MAGA type and she's kind of hard to follow. She goes on at length about things like the Jewish conspiracy to use black people to secure their stronghold on the media and banking, establishing circumcision as a norm for males in the US as a way to show the US fealty to Israel, and something about Trump being akin to Roko's Basilisk and the importance of being on the right side of history.
I'm assuming she's not your average conservative, so I'd love to hear from a participant in today's activities to hear about their goals and motivations for today's activities.
Breaching into government buildings in response to spurious allegations of electoral fraud is bad enough - there's no need to taint the message with embellishment, and doing so gives ammunition to people who want to claim that critics of these events are spreading falsehoods.
1. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/06/us/electoral-vote
Then again, the lack of firearms is probably why Capitol Police are playing it so calm.
These Republicans (particularly Ted Cruz) aren't stupid enough to believe their own words, but they're seriously playing with fire risking their countries democracy in the name of a '24 run at a time when China is only getting stronger.
But like him or not, Steve Bannon suggested this would happen. It has something to do with the Democrats and the way they went after Trump. He basically said they are setting the precedent for what happens when they're back in power. He said both sides need to remember respect is a two way street.
I would recommend the following Real Time with Bill Maher Interview.
It's a meme on 4chan right now that this is the case and I can see the lineage.
WW II united most of the country, then the Cold War kept it united. With the end of the Cold War, with no enemy to unite to two half’s of the country it’s back to where we were 100 years ago.
I also live in Trump country and I hear all this nonsense, the “Trumpism”, and slogans etc, are nothing more than racist White people feeling empowered.
It’s the explosion of the repressed racism held in by some white people. That’s why they complain about Politically Correct, they can be openly prejudiced and it kills them.
These people know Trump didn’t win, they know there was no cheating, but it’s all they can say to support their hate, if they say anything else they know they be outed for who and what they are.
EDIT - Just to be clear, I'm saying the rioters are stupid, not anything/anyone else.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/13469288825958850...
https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Live-updates-U-... @ 12:59p
EDIT: fixed time.
on MSNBC: At least one IED was found. It's now in the hands of law enforcement.
https://nitter.net/oneunderscore__/status/134692342971531673...
It's sad to see people enabling him. He won't win. The nation is stronger. He probably thinks he's winning right now though.
I asked him to show me data that confirms that the HN community is not what I think it is. I partially believe this is why he added the link in his comment since he added a similar link in his reply to me over the weekend.
And his comment today was basically what I said in the other post. The HN community is going to behave themselves on the millionth hate post about Electron or Amp urls. But they’re going to show their asses on these sort of posts.
dang@ basically agreed with me but then said “But still, no the community is fine.” You can’t use silly Electron posts to prove that point.
it's the people who are in charge and the politicians serve at their pleasure.
A good time as any to quote Joseph de Maistre:
"Every man has certain duties to perform, and the extent of these duties depends on his position in society and the extent of his means. The same action is by no means equally culpable when committed by two different men. Not to stray from our subject, the same act which results only from a mistake or a foolish characteristic in an obscure person, thrust suddenly into unlimited power, could be a foul crime in a bishop or a duke or a peer.
Indeed, some actions, which are excusable and even praiseworthy from an ordinary point of view, are fundamentally infinitely criminal. For example, if someone says, I have espoused the cause of the French Revolution in good faith, through a pure love of liberty and my country; I have believed in my soul and conscience that it would lead to the reform of abuses and to the general good, we have nothing to say in reply. But the eye of him who sees into every heart discerns the stain of sin; he discovers in a ridiculous misunderstanding, in a small puncturing of pride, in a base or criminal passion, the prime moving force behind those ambitions we wish to present to the world as noble: and for him the crime is compounded by grafting the falsehood of hypocrisy onto treason. But let us look at the nation in general.
One of the greatest possible crimes is undoubtedly an attack upon sovereignty, no other having such terrible consequences. If sovereignty resides in one man and this man falls victim to an outrage, the crime of lese-majesty augments the atrocity. But if this sovereign has not deserved his fate through any fault of his own, if his very virtues have strengthened the guilty against him, the crime is beyond description. This is the case in the death of Louis XVI; but what is important to note is that never has such a great crime had more accomplices. The death of Charles I had far fewer, even though it was possible to bring charges against him that Louis XVI did not merit. Yet many proofs were given of the most tender and courageous concern for him; even the executioner, who was obliged to obey, did not dare to make himself known. But in France, Louis XVI marched to his death in the middle of 60,000 armed men who did not have a single shot for their king, not a voice was raised for the unfortunate monarch, and the provinces were as silent as the capital. We would expose ourselves, it was said. Frenchmen - if you find this a good reason, talk no more of your courage or admit that you misuse it!"
s/French Revolution/BLM
"I am asking for everyone at the U.S. Capitol to remain peaceful. No violence! Remember, WE are the Party of Law & Order – respect the Law and our great men and women in Blue. Thank you!"
Ivanka: “American Patriots — any security breach or disrespect to our law enforcement is unacceptable,” Ivanka Trump tweeted. “The violence must stop immediately. Please be peaceful.”
Cuccinelli called on people breaching the Capitol grounds to disperse.
“There is a proper venue to resolve grievances,” he wrote. “This is not it.”
Well it started for a somewhat different reason (a new "eco" tax on gas) but 1 of the protesters claim was that the president had only been elected by a quarter of French people and thus had no reason to stay in power. And we saw some protests turning violent with some protesters losing an eye, hit by rubber ball or gas canister (seen such comments on twitter about the US BLM protests and Trump/BLM protesters clashes). It was said that an helicopter was ready to fly the president out of Paris during the peak of the protests and some protesters managed to storm some ministry.
The social unrest for me is partly to blame on social media. We also see that with the conspiracy theorists on covid19, but people don't watch traditional media anymore. They get information from Facebook groups or some twitter feeds, spend their time commenting on the same topic, see that some other people share the same opinion and thus think a large portion of their fellow citizen share the same point of view. It just reinforces extremist views or make them become dominant within a group.
What does this have to do with the storming of the capital?
In my opinion, Trump is just doing that. I don't think he would have expected armed men to join this. He was probably doing it to save face. It doesn't help that democrats are making the situation worse by calling this a coup instead of taking a calmer sentence.
Here are the possible resolution scenarios:
- The men are disbanded. No one is hurt, maybe some charges against some of these men.
- One fatal shot on one side or both sides. Sad event, but then the men are disbanded and harsher charges against some of them.
The rest is drama.
So if you're a Trump supporter you're now apart of the 'Far-Right'? I wonder if this labeling by the media has led to the protests we see today.
As a side note, you never see 'Far-Left Protestors' as a title. Surely there had to have been some 'Far-Left' protests in recent memory.
These are supposed to be some of the most secure in the US??
National Guard request was denied apparently.
Anyone remember how many were deployed during BLM protests..
America is now one of 'those' countries. All it took was 4 years. Wow.
The national guard will probably be activated at some point and if they do there could be a bloodbath.
And some people say that white privilege doesn't exist...
The freedom and well being of 320+ million people is far more important than a few buildings and a semblance of law and order. The system is harming people's mental health and the system needs to be reformed to fix this. Suppression and censorship is not going to solve anything.
You apparently know how to both-sides insurgents invading the capitol so you’ve got that going for you.
But here’s a hint: “defund” and “abolish” are different words with different meanings, and using one rather than the other is purposeful.
de·fund
prevent from continuing to receive funds. "the California Legislature has defunded the Industrial Welfare Commission"
And that's healthy, I believe opposing sides should have a go at it.
I would love less counter-protest action in general, but it feels pretty reasonable to demand equal counter-protest action in comparison to other protests historically. What we see today is not the former.