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Comment by roc | Hacker News Reader

> "The tablet is going to replace at least the home computer."

I don't know about that. But what I think is still a huge deal, and far more likely, is that families will trend back toward one shared PC in the den and use multiple secondary devices for individual use.

While I don't think you can get away without a home PC, you can certainly share one more easily when all but a handful of tasks are doable (if not more enjoyable) on a tablet.

And that's going to hurt a lot of home PC purchasing, with the notable exception of when the kids go off to college.

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> While I don't think you can get away without a home PC

Are you saying this about today, May 18 2011? If you are, I suppose you might be right. But by, say, the end of the year, or maybe next year, I think you'll be absolutely wrong. The tablet market moves fast and soon there won't be a single task that isn't only doable but indeed more enjoyable on the tablet.

Right now, my Xoom outperforms (measured in my happiness levels, not CPU speed) all my home PCs for every single task except software development. I see no reason at all to have a home PC if you own a Xoom or similar tablet. I just bought the nice bluetooth keyboard which means that now even composing blog entries or writing emails is nicer on the tablet.

Everything's changing, and fast. It would be shortsighted to suggest that everyone needs an i7, 4GB of RAM, 2TB of storage and a DVD drive in 2011. Desktops will become more and more of a niche device, used only by nerds, while tablets and their descendants will take over the whole consumer market.

I'm saying today or the immediate future.

What you'd need to replace the home computer, at the minimum, would be support for 'docking' the device into a larger display and keyboard, which suggests mouse (to avoid gorilla-arm) and implies apps that can detect that mode switch and alter themselves accordingly.

If you've tried to use keyboards on current tablet software designed for touch, you've seen that they're as ill-supported as touch is on software designed for kb/m. Until the OS and apps can provide reliable navigation and control from the keyboard (and optional mouse), they're a non-feature. They're no closer to popular consumer adoption than the last round of Windows-based tablets.

Short of that mode switch, there are simply too many times when the ergonomics of tablets are inappropriate or less desirable. And an older PC (that people already own) will be the logical choice for those tasks.

And you'd also need a better printing solution. As much as I personally hate printing, schools and business are moving very slowly on that front and a lot of personal PC use revolves around creating documents to be printed. And the current solutions aren't there for the average family.

The iPad and other recent tablets have HDMI.

I agree they are not there yet, but every little improvement widens the tasks for which they can replace a PC. Even some development tasks can be replaced now (e.g. using ssh). This will only increase with time, as both hardware and software is improved for the tasks people use them for. At the moment, tablets are barely nipping at the heels of the PC, being alternative to a 2nd/3rd PC http://news.cnet.com/8301-31021_3-20063776-260.html - but for purposes that the PC is more-than-good-enough for, the tablets are approaching being good enough. As they reach each tier, people will switch, for the other benefits (portable, lighter, slimmer, cheaper, less hassle, cooler).

When PCs became good enough to replace minicomputers, the effect was catastrophic. The long-awaited disrapture.

I think if your definition of a tablet includes an optional keyboard and mouse then you may be right (I see you bought a keyboard). I just think there are too many tasks that require more precise input than just a touch based screen. Most people when talking about tablets don't include those in their thinking, but it is definitely the way to go to maximize the functionality of the device.

A lot of households still use personal computers to do their taxes and manage other financial/important docs, create things for school which is often in MS apps, or archive photos and video, etc. A lot of these functions would just be far too cumbersome on a tablet and I really can't see any of them being replaced in the reasonable future.

Tablets can't do serious gaming.

99% of people don't give a toss about serious gaming.

The iPad has become the primary gaming device for me - I rarely ever play video games elsewhere.

Also, gaming consoles exist. A PC was never necessary for serious gaming.

untrue, but it was more than ten years ago...

Why is that? You will have to explain your odd view a bit more, I fear.

I can understand that some people prefer PC gaming for one reason or another but I think I’m quite correct in guessing that those people are a tiny minority – it’s a niche.

there was a brief window when online 3d gaming was first taking off and none of the major consoles supported it in a good way -- the only game in town for hardcore gaming was the PC. Sure, the dreamcast might have been able to do it, but everybody was using gamespy to connect to their favorite servers.

So? "Serious gaming" fits nicely with the desktop niche I just described. Plenty of people will continue to buy desktops for just that reason - that's the only device that'll do what they need. My point is that soon none of those desktop needs will be mainstream.

Also, quad core tablets will be out in the next year or two. What on earth makes you think they won't have serious games?

for serious gaming they can go with consoles...better than going with PC anyways, since with gaming those gets obsolete a lot faster.

If you don't need to do gaming on PC, you can change the PC once every 5 years. But if you do, you'd have to do that twice as often.

Actually, a cutting edge PC isn't really all that necessary for gaming nowadays. Since a large portion of games are cross-platform between 360/PS3 and the PC, you just need a PC as good as one of those. I spent less than a $1000 (including monitor, kb, 1TB HD, etc) on a decent PC about 2.5 years ago, and it's still able to run most everything I run into on max settings. Until we see a new generation of consoles, or something like another Crysis, you really don't need to upgrade your PC for gaming.

Besides, some of us prefer keyboard/mouse and modding ability.

Nah, but games consoles can.

Not as well as a PC. PC gaming and console gaming are two totally different worlds

I came here to say something similar. I think it may also replace computer upgrade purchases. That is, it's not strictly necessary to replace the current computer, but gosh is it running slow. But if the family uses the iPad more, they can tolerate a slow computer during the word processing and bill-paying.

I have no home computer...I have my Laptop for work, and everyone else uses an iPad or phone.

Of course it's going to replace the home computer. Tablets are becoming the home computer. If tablets browse the web, access email, play music, and more, why would most of the public need a PC? Only those with technical needs would require a tower and monitor on their desk.

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