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Comment by ubercore | Hacker News Reader

They don't say ethics outweighs science, do they? They're just two axes on which to evaluate the model. You're coming to some interesting conclusions from those slides, unless I'm misreading something.

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I can see where the poster got confused, the powerpoint slides have some sloppy logic. Though whether that’s because of the people or because of the loose thinking caused by slides, or both, is hard to say.

You're right, my comment was partly wrong (and it's too late to edit it). They don't say that Ethics outweighs Science as a subject matter. They say that Science predicts all three proposals are equally good, and therefore Ethics gets the deciding vote.

(I disagree with the claim that the choice of which group to vaccinate first won't strongly affect the total number of infections and deaths. But that's a different argument.)

And then, within the Ethics group, they say that the deciding ethical factor in favor of vaccinating essential workers is that they have a higher proportion of minorities and low-income families than the other groups (of high-risk and of old people).

They don't give any reasoning, so it's hard to argue with this. Unlike the Science section, which links a study that models deaths prevented by targeted vaccination. The Ethics section lists some unsupported and unquantified claims (table on slide 31) and at the same time judges which outcomes are better.

Crucially, the first line of this table says that ethically it's equally good to either "Preserve services essential to the COVID-19 response and overall functioning of society", or to "Reduce morbidity and mortality in persons with highest burden of COVID-19 hospitalization and death". Why? Based on what refutable data or model or ethical theory? Who knows.

Of course, this is a summary presentation; there may have been something behind it that they didn't refer or link to.

They do not say ethics outweighs science. Dooling simply ignores the science[0] (slide 23) and gives equal "maximize benefits and minimize harms" merit (3 pluses) to vaccinating 65+ and vaccinating essential workers, despite recognizing on slide 21 that with a disease-blocking vaccine, "Initially vaccinating age ≥65 in Phase 1b averts approximately 2–6.5% more deaths, compared to targeting high-risk adults or essential workers".

The tipping point then comes from the equal-weighted (why?) metric of "Mitigate health inequities", where she gives essential workers three pluses but 65+ only one plus. This gives "essential workers" 9 pluses total, greater than the 6 pluses for 65+.

It is frankly shocking that a person can recognize one course of action will clearly save the most lives, then assign an arbitrary score that puts that course of action as equally beneficial as the "woke" course of action--for no reason--and then invent another arbitrary category of equal importance that gives more weight to the "woke" course of action because there aren't enough brown people in the 65+ bucket.

It's even more shocking that this fundamentally irrational and (poorly) racially-motivated reasoning was unanimously approved[1] by the committee.

[0]: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-... [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6950e2-H.pdf

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