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Comment by maxharris | Hacker News Reader

TSLA? Entirely justified. I think we're headed to $4400/share by 2024. (See Cathie Wood's "golden goose" bull case for details.)

I laid out my reasoning for getting in back in May 2020. I raised my position to 86% a month after writing this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22970810

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At this point, pretending that TSLA has anything to do with the company Tesla is grotesque. I applause the length to which you go to justify yourself.

TSLA is a meme stock that operates on a narrative that "TSLA always goes up". It's pure speculation and that bubble is going to pop very badly. And it might take the whole economy with it now that it is in the SP500 with a ridiculous valuation.

S&P500 has a total market cap of $31T. Tesla's current piece of that index is ~2%. A bubble pop would be unlikely to "take the whole economy with it" (thankfully).

When Tesla pops, it will potentially lose 80 or 90% of its values over a couple days/weeks. Even though that's only 2% of the SP500, it will trigger a panic sell for related companies in the same industry, and it might eventually become a macro indicator.

I'm sorry you missed out on one of the best investments of the decade, but there is a lot of room left for this to run.

Tesla's coming FSD and robotaxis still haven't been priced in. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx7BXih7zx8

That's not two things, it's one, and I just don't see Tesla self driving panning out anytime soon. They've made wild claims about it for years now, but the actual product has progressed slowly. There have been far more failures than successes in that field over the past decade, and it's perpetually been given a "just a couple more years" timeline.

How is any lead that TSLA has in battery tech or software not going to be industry standard in 5-10 years? Other companies will hire their engineers etc.

Only advantage they have is branding. Which is good, but companies like BMW have the premium brand down good too.

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