I have a degree in molecular biology, and I took a lot of elective courses in immunology, oncology, virology. I worked in a research lab on HIV vaccine for two years after undergrad before I switched back to software engineering. So I was able to keep a cooler head about the virus than most, which enabled me to buy intelligently. I worked damn hard to earn that degree and in my time in the lab. I was a twitchy premed student that needed every grade to be perfect. NONE of the effort I poured into those six years of my life was luck. It was pure sweat.
In the immediate future, I expect that the dip in advertising will cause Q1 earnings from Google and Facebook to be lower than expected. As the Fed continues to inflate stocks, this will cause a lot more buying of TSLA and AAPL.
In the 2020s, Tesla will continue to soar because:
1) they have a huge lead in battery tech. they're about to announce that they've achieved the $100/kWh mark, which will let them sell electric cars that go as far as gas ones but don't cost more.
2) batteries are crucial for amazing tech like the emerging eVTOL scene. it's possible Tesla may enter that space and dominate it, because batteries determine everything there, too. in the meantime, I bought some shares of eHang (Chinese company, listed on the Nasdaq under EH)
3) they have a huge lead in autonomous driving. LiDAR is a dead-end, and they're ahead of everyone else there, too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx7BXih7zx8
4) demand is not a problem at all, especially in China (where the latest new factory is). demand for iPhones was just fine in 2008-2009! remember Ballmer reacting with, "$600 for a phone!?" when he was asked about the iPhone in 2007?
5) they now sell car insurance. they're using all the data collected by their cars to offer significantly lower rates to customers
6) they're going to get into home HVAC, which will integrate beautifully with the Powerwall and solar roof products. I have been looking at buying a cheap off-grid lot up in the mountains to build a home on (when the price is right!), and I absolutely will buy that and avoid paying significant costs to get the lot hooked up to the grid.
7) their competitors will continue to fail to invest in EVs, even though their futures depend on it. this is because they are loaded up with tons of debt, while Tesla has a lot less
8) the site for Gigafactory Berlin has been fully cleared, and it will be under construction very soon. there's another factory coming in the US later this year.
9) I should at least mention the new products! Model Y is a definite hit, and it's clear that the Cybertruck will be! the new semi was delayed only because they simply can't produce enough batteries for it and the Model Y at the moment. that's gonna change!
10) they have a new analyst covering them at Goldman, and he's bullish. I expect TSLA to join the S&P 500 this year, which will trigger a massive wave of institutional buying.
I think ARK Invest has it right. $24k/share by 2024. Out of the scenarios they give, I think their middle-range estimate of $3.4k/share by 2024 is my worst-case.
Tesla is $54.74% of my portfolio right now, and if I could go back to March and do it all over again, I'd make it 100%.
If you want to keep in touch and lord it over me when I go bankrupt, I'm maxharris9 on Twitter.