IMO as a practical matter the way to manage this is to have an a active pipeline and manage your callendar to pull the B-grade opportunities earlier and push out the A-grade opportunities. Telling a recruiter “I am actively talking to a couple other companies” is usually an accelerant and seeds FOMO.

So, I agree with you that it takes some luck. But good strategy makes you ready for whatever luck happens. Play backgammon, not chess.