I don't know why this should come as a surprise. All the arguments that I've seen that somehow the iPad will avoid the same fate as the (still highly successful but not market leader in OS) iPhone have been weak, pushed mostly by people who have a stake in its success. It is extremely hard to beat a competent and good platform so willing to allow any company to succeed and do what they will with the platform. It comes down to the simple fact it is essentially Apple vs. the rest of industry (minus a few outliers). Not even Apple can do that. They came close with MP3 players, but tablets are much more dangerous; they are a PC market disruptor, not a Walkman disruptor. So far it seems all of those companies are willing to bet on Android. And considering Android is lead by a software team willing to iterate furiously and have some sort of quality, I have little doubt they will take the lead in the tablet space.