At this point I cannot imagine a sane third party application developer choosing to build on top of GTK. The clock starts ticking on the life of your application the moment you choose GTK.
At this point I cannot imagine a sane third party application developer choosing to build on top of GTK. The clock starts ticking on the life of your application the moment you choose GTK.
The ticking clock you're referring to is real, but it applies to any open source library you're depending on that you aren't contributing anything to, not just GTK. It can't be avoided just by switching to another open source toolkit. If it really bothers you, start contributing and help out!
Realistically, most people who decide to ditch GTK seem to switch to Qt and either start contributing there or pay for consulting/LTS/commercial licenses eventually, because that is the only comparably modern option for native widgets on Linux/BSD.
So yes, jumping from dependency to dependency is not a viable option long term. Luckily you only need to jump away from GTK once.
As far as contribution processes go, both upstreams are equally tedious to work with. I doubt GTK would be willing to accept your code contribution if you added systray icons support back to GTK4 for example. So while the contribution process does matter, it doesn't matter as much as you make it out to be.
AFAIK the systray icon support in GTK was removed because nobody was willing to maintain it. I don't think that's a great example because it doesn't even need to be in GTK anyway, it relies entirely on platform-specific functionality and has little to do with the toolkit. Someone can just make a library for that. (And I think Ubuntu did, but it was not upstreamed for a few reasons, one of them being that it didn't support multiple platforms) Regardless, that is the point I was getting at. The upstream policy is really not that different between these projects, you can't avoid it just by jumping ship.
It’s simply false that retaining API backwards compatibility prevents refactoring and necessarily causes technical debt to balloon.